The Free Agent Waiting Game
The Packers have a history of waiting until the last possible moment before signing their own free agents, as Tom Silverstein points out.
By PackerAaron
Prescient post from Tom Silverstein over at JSOnline regarding the Packers and their own stable of players who are set to become free agents.
From Silverstein:
The Packers are no closer to signing TE Jermichael Finley and C Scott Wells than they were six months ago. According to NFL sources, there have been discussions between negotiator Russ Ball and several of the team' free-agents-to-be, but nothing is imminent.
There's a reason for that, too.
The Packers don't get serious about signing their name free agents until the market starts to show itself, which in most cases is a couple of hours before free agency begins.
They will float offers that many agents consider below-market value in hopes of getting a Josh Sitton or Jordy Nelson to go for the security of a long-term deal, but in the case of guys like Wells, Finley and Jarrett Bush, they are dealing with guys who are not going to bite because their free-agent value is going to be sky high.
Waiting until the last minute allows GM Ted Thompson and Ball to see what players at the same position as their free agents are going to be available and how that will affect their market value. It also allows them to see if the agent they're dealing with is bluffing about interest his client will draw from other teams.
Of course, the downside is that it's too late and the free agent leaves or you misread the market and overpay as was the case with Hawk. That's why there is some risk involved doing it the Packers' way.
There is indeed some risk involved, and as I wrote earlier this week, I think this is the year it comes back to bite Thompson and company when they watch Scott Wells sign with another team. However, overall the Packers have done well with this approach, as Tom goes on to detail in his post. (Check out his list of when recent Packers free agents were signed)
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Comments (19)
February 16, 2012 at 09:32 am
Siverstein doesn't even mention the miss on Cullen Jenkins. Maybe it does not quite fit his point about timing, but I would think that having several major contract negotiations going simultaneously would increase the risk of missing an opportunity. Crosby, Jones and Jenkins all signed within a 48-hour time span, and the verbal agreements in principle may have been even closer in time than that. When you probably only have one person in the organization who can pull the trigger (TT), I think it would be difficult to maintain communications and get multiple senstive negotiations done (successfully) in real time.
PackerAaron
February 16, 2012 at 09:51 am
Difference with Jenkins is they were never going to bring him back. Cullen and his agent have both confirmed several times that the Packers wouldn't even take a meeting. They never had any intention of bringing him back.
February 16, 2012 at 10:57 am
I wonder how much salary cap consideration went into TT's decision regardless of Jenkins on field performance.
February 16, 2012 at 08:40 pm
BubbaOne,
as a great admirer of Cullen "Big Sexy" Jenkins prowess on the field of play, I have to wonder how much of the "how many snaps out of the year is Cullen Jenkins really on the field of play" consideration went into TT's decision regardless of Jenkins' on field performance.
Love the guy, he was capable of taking over a game when he was healthy. Problem was, he wasn't. Ever. Healthy.
February 16, 2012 at 12:18 pm
I know you're right about the Packers refusing the contacts. I thought TT made some comments after the signings were over that kind of hinted that the market for Jenkins went lower than he had anticipated. Maybe it did not really matter. Maybe TT was just trying to not be seen as slighting the buy by saying, "not at any price" out loud. Or maybe if everything had not been so compressed he would have thought better of the situation. Pure speculation, I know.
February 16, 2012 at 04:01 pm
I can't believe after all those years of our O-line being in various stages of flux and sux, that Thompson would let Wells walk. Pay the man! He's earned it.
February 16, 2012 at 04:53 pm
Always have to remember, you can't pay everybody. Each year is a balancing act of keeping as much as you can, but sometimes you have to gamble and try to have a cheaper guy fill another man's shoes. This organization seems to have a pretty good overall plan, but they will always have some misses. Some of it will come down to the players as well. If Finley or Wells just want the payday, there is no way TT can keep them, but if they want to be with the Pack, they probably need a chance to gauge their value and settle for something close.
February 16, 2012 at 10:16 pm
I get the feeling Wells will walk if the price is right. No home-town discount.
February 17, 2012 at 09:07 am
I guess this could kinda be related, yesterday on NFLTA they had a piece on 'draft freakonomics' did anybody else see that? Really cool stuff. If I get some time later I'll look for a link, in the meantime, I urge everyone to find it, definitely worth a look.
GBP 4 LIFE
February 17, 2012 at 09:39 am
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/09000d5d826f73ca/Football-Freakonom...
Is this what you were referring to? Pretty interesting.
February 17, 2012 at 03:52 pm
Thanks Chad. I'm sure it was, says it's no longer available through.
February 17, 2012 at 03:53 pm
Though!
February 17, 2012 at 11:03 am
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFL-Draft-How-to-grade-the-CB-positi...
Off topic, but this is a nice write-up by Bowen.Point #4 made me think a lot about the Packers, their apparent defensive phiolosphy last year (rely on the turn-overs) and their penchant for guys like Morgan Burnett - a safety who produced a lot of INTs in college.
February 17, 2012 at 11:18 am
There was a subsequent piece written about how difficult it is to find safeties in the collegiate ranks as a byproduct of spread offense concepts being so popular. Defenses have responded by moving the body-types, typically playing safety, to linebacker and far closer to the line of scrimmage to deal with how that offensive philosophy distributes the ball so close to the line of scrimmage.
Translation, you really have few DB's with even average read/recognition skills needed to play the intermediate to deep 1/3rd of the field. Outside of the very best athletic prospects in this position teams will need to be patient from a developmental standpoint.
Instead of a huge leap from year 1 to 2 I'm guessing year 3 will be the most telling year for most DB prospects.
February 17, 2012 at 01:26 pm
Maybe Bowen recycled the story. The link I put up was just posted today. What you're describing is pretty intersting. If you could find the link I'd appreciate it.
February 17, 2012 at 01:59 pm
Albert Breer, an NFL Network analyst, is one of the individuals with this sentiment:
"This is a problem that's not specific to this draft. It's one, talking to folks around the league, that's becoming a real problem in general, with bigger safeties being converted to linebacker to combat spread offenses and corners lacking prototypical NFL size being moved safety to fill the void. Scouts and execs say it's increasingly difficult to find a traffic director back there, with defenses simplified to combat spread offenses, as well."
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d8270649c/article/questions-abound-...
It really does make sense that this general sentiment is out there. Everything occurs so close to the line of scrimmage in college now it's easy to see how DB's come into the pros based on speed, measurables and upside more than any other position. There's so little body of work related to technique and recognition on tape beyond 10 yards.
Lots of projection, perhaps more than any other position.
February 18, 2012 at 01:20 am
Jarrett Bush and Lee are free agents also. Lee is gone for sure unless no one else wants him. Bush is brought back because of his ST play.
February 19, 2012 at 12:42 pm
Let Wells walk,cut Hawk make a play for Mario Williams
February 19, 2012 at 02:06 pm
"Let Wells walk,cut Hawk make a play for Mario Williams"
Was this a joke? Are you intoxicated? What behaviors has TT shown you to make you think that this scenario is even a remote possibility?