Maybe These Guys Had A Point...
By PackerAaron
We all know I'm no draftnik. Goodness knows, I have trouble enough trying to keep track of the talent on the 32 teams in the NFL. I would simply be lost if I had to sort through the thousands of players at the collegiate level. No, I like to leave it to the men at 1265 Lombardi who make a living going on road trips all across the country, attending practices and games and then each breaking down untold amounts of tape on hundreds of prospects from schools both big and small. But most of all, I leave it in the capable hands of Ted Thompson.
Which, in an odd leap of logic that only comes when one has spent his weekend preparing and executing a blow-out surprise birthday party for a now-eight year old, brings me to this.
When Justin Harrell was selected, I, and a lot of you, I suspect, laughed at the over-the-top, absurdity of the clip. Yes, Harrell was a surpise, but Thompson thought he was, ahem, the 'best player available' and pulled the trigger. I counseled all who would listen what a wise choice it was. What with Corey Williams' contract coming due, Harrell would slide into the starting lineup the following year and the Packers wouldn't miss a beat. As we now know - that's not quite what happened.
And here's something else that, while frightening, we may also know just as plainly after this season. If Harrell doesn't stay healthy and show even the slightest acumen for playing football at the NFL level, our friends in the video clip linked to above - were right. And Ted Thompson was wrong.
THAT is what a crap shoot the draft is.
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Comments (20)
April 05, 2009 at 11:25 pm
That was beautiful.
April 06, 2009 at 06:41 am
Ted made that pick just to get us all happy about him trading out of the first round.
April 06, 2009 at 06:44 am
These guys need to take some freakin' Valium before this years draft. Holy crap. I am looking forward to the draft too but come on. Don't be a lunatic about it. You need to have a little self control. What, they knew so much more about the draft because they read a few draft guides? Give me a break.
PackerAaron
April 06, 2009 at 07:15 am
PackerBacker - The post is far from saying that the gentlemen in the clip above "know more about the draft" - hardly. But it does illustrate what a complete game of roulette it can be when someone as knowledgeable as Thompson can potentially be so wrong about a pick while ignoramuses like our friends there could potentially be so right...
April 06, 2009 at 07:25 am
Aside from the "potential bust" scenario with Justin Harrell... how many other bust(s) has Trader Ted pulled? Everywhere I go, one cheeseheads site after another, they all focus only on Harrell. So, if we're still stuck in this [HATE TT] mode, let's at least consistently List ALL of his dramatically POOR draft choices when we bring up the subject, if at all.
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I've reviewed and reviewed and reviewed. Ted Thompson's draft acument is essentially on par with Ron Wolf. What's the difference you ask... It's one specific signing alone that somehow cemented Wolf against any type of criticism from the Cheese Nation, to date. And, that's Reggie White. Let's take this one step further. If it was the 2nd year of Free Agency, would Green Bay had landed Reggie White? Spock Logic Answer? Doubtful. The Packers took everyone by surprise in how they went after White, with private jets, the whole Vegas attitude, if you will. There were several other teams with (at the time) better QB's than what it appeared the Pack had back then.
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So, leaving out Reggie White, since there will only be one Reggie White (at least so far)... leaving that dicussion out of it.... and comparing TT to RW ... List Trader Ted's complete draft busts since he took the reins away from Super Draft Guru Mike Sherman. Because from all the chatter I've seen even on here, it sure comes off like this one questionable pick is all some packerfans needs to slant the presence of basically a good (and quite religious) man.
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I'd like to see a List.
PackerAaron
April 06, 2009 at 07:48 am
Where did I say I hated TT?
April 06, 2009 at 08:25 am
"THAT is what a crap shoot the draft is." Which says then, Build through the draft is one of the world's biggest oxymorons.
More on TT's draft skills later.
April 06, 2009 at 10:53 am
"Gray-haired, Nazi-ass JEW!!!"
Classic.
April 06, 2009 at 10:58 am
If a draft pick is a crap shoot, then Ted is taking more rolls. Thats how you build through the draft.
He's also finagled compensation for any FA's that have left since Longwell, IIRC.
April 06, 2009 at 11:03 am
<i>“THAT is what a crap shoot the draft is.” Which says then, Build through the draft is one of the world’s biggest oxymorons.</i>
No, it's not. The fact that any single draft pick is a "crapshoot" does not lead to the conclusion that one cannot build through the draft. What it does suggest is that you will have better odds of success when you have more rolls of the dice. In other words- if you want to do well in the draft, don't focus on one or two high picks; focus on getting a high number of picks. Many won't pan out- even some of the high picks won't pan out- but the more picks you have, the more opportunities you will have for one or more of the picks to pan out. That's how you build with the draft.
April 06, 2009 at 12:13 pm
TT the draft genius, or graduate of today’s Public School system? In his tenure as GB’s GM, TT has selected 43 players via the Draft. That’s an average of 10.75 players per year. With only seven rounds he is consistently drafting more than his allotment. Is that good or bad? Let’s look a bit deeper.
His first round draft picks were Rodgers, AJ Hawk, and Harrell. He traded down to the second round last year. Rodgers would have to be classified as a very good pick at this point. He could be great if his development continues. AJ has been a major disappointment, but anyone picking at that spot would have selected him. There is still time for AJ to redeem himself. Harrell was and still is a mystery. Using a #1 pick for someone who spent more time in the ER than a football field is unconscionable. A total waste of a first rounder! GB got Jordy Nelson in the trade down last year. That would have to be rated ok at this point.
So, on first round picks he is probably average.
More to come….
PackerAaron
April 06, 2009 at 12:21 pm
So he's on par with Ron Wolf so far. Good to know... ;)
April 06, 2009 at 01:18 pm
Let’s look at his overall draft performance. His 43 draft picks have resulted in 29 (67% of picks) players still with the team. Of the 29 players still on the team, 18 (42% of Picks) have started at one time or another and 18 (42% of Picks) can be called regulars. These are also statistics that, on the surface seem somewhat impressive. Let’s look a closer!
TT made 9 picks in 2008. All 9 stayed with the Packers. One, Swain, was on IR all year. If the last year is eliminated the percent of drafted players still with the Packers is consistent with the total, 59%. So, it can be concluded that TT is pretty consistent with the draft. After 4 years he has kept an average of 7 players per year. Of that number 4.5 per have started and 4.5 have played regularly. For sake of argument let’s say the average life span of an NFL player is seven years, so at a seven year life span it is numerically possible for TT to restock the team (almost – 52 vs. 49). But, not with players who can actually play with NFL level skills (4.5 vs. 7).
The answer then is just what is the quality of the drafted product?
Coming soon!
April 06, 2009 at 01:54 pm
Holy crap Ron, you really are putting some thought into this. It's all very interesting, if not a bit theoretical for the NFL.
Packeraaron, I wasn't insinuating that you were saying the guys in the video knew what they were talking about. I was saying that at the end of the video he sits there all calm and tries to reason why Harrel is a horrible pick, not 20 seconds after I see him throwing chairs and popping rubber balls. I'm sorry but I tend to pay no attention to a person after they prove that they have that little self-control.
That's why you will never find me asking what a pro-wrestler thinks about politics or the current economic climate. You haven't proven that your opinion matters.
April 06, 2009 at 03:11 pm
How about a pro wrestler that becomes a governor?
April 06, 2009 at 05:13 pm
Star Players
1.Aaron RodgersHigh Potential
2.Greg JenningsHigh Potential
3.Will BlackmonHigh Potential(as a returner)
4.Mason CrosbyHigh Potential(game winning kicks?)
Good Players
5. Nick CollinsGood Potential(needs to repeat 08’)
6.Johnnie JollyGood Potential(personal Issues)
7.Brandon JacksonGood Potential
8.James JonesGood Potential
9.Jordy NelsonGood Potential
10.AJ HawkSome Potential(a must year for AJ)
Developing Players
11.Josh SittonSome Potential(play regularly)
12.Jermichael FinleySome Potential(attitude adjustment)
13.Desmond BishopSome Potential(play in the 34?)
14.Jeremy ThompsonSome Potential(OLB in 34?)
15.Patrick LeeUnknown(injuries?)
16.Deshawn WynnSome Potential(stay healthy)
Special Circumstances
17.Brian BrohmUnknown(playing time?)
18.Matt FlynnUnknown(holds ep’s and td’s)
The Rest
19.Brady PoppingaSub-par(4 yrs future?)
20.Michael MontgomerySub-par(4yrs trapped easily)
21.Darren CollegeSub-par(lion game)
22.Jason SpitzSub-par(maybe center)
23.Tony MollAwful(performance lacking)
24.Alan BarbreUnknown(must see to believe)
25.Breno GiacomoniUnkown(must see to believe)
26.Justin HarrellAwful(fragile Marshmallow)
27.Aaron RouseSub-par(coverage issues)
28.Korry Hall Unknown(special teams?)
29.Brett SwainIR( another wr)
So of TT’s 29 remaining Draft Picks, only five are rated as future stars. Another five are rated as very good in the future. Seven seem to be headed toward being good players. The remaining 12 either have no record to base a rating or have already been shown to be poor performers.
In five years, 17 of TT’s draft picks are contributing to the team’s performance. That’s roughly 4 per year. Not enough to restock the positions being lost for a variety of reasons.
I’ll admit my rankings are somewhat arbitrary and tainted with a dab of bias. However, for those who were ranked low, just as many higher ranking players could be argued down. Overall, no NFL team can use only the draft to prepare for the future. A good balance of all options, trade, free agency, and draft is the way to do it. Kind of sounds like Ron Wolf doesn’t it?
April 06, 2009 at 06:44 pm
Wow I feel a whole lot dumber after watching that video & honestly can't believe there are nut job Packer fans out there like that.
Ron La Canne by any chance is your name Aaron Siegert AKA Herb Adderley.
April 07, 2009 at 07:33 am
No - I Yam Who I Yam, to quote Popeye.
PackerAaron
April 07, 2009 at 07:48 am
Wow Ron. That's quite a list. And actually, shockingly, I agree with most of it. Your assessment of Colledge is way off, but other than that I don't find much to quibble with.
April 30, 2009 at 09:38 pm
We put that video online two years ago in good fun... it quickly turned into an 80,000 view sensation and resulted in us pulling the original clip from YouTube.
We handled ourselves like gentlemen last year, and the year before... the Harrell pick just got the best of us. I have to apologize for my friend's "nazi ass jew" comment as well, that was really the main reason I deleted the video.