Defensive Pressure & Playmaking has Taken a Step Back
After being one of the NFL's best defenses in quarterback pressures, red zone defense, and turnovers last season, the Green Bay Packers have regressed significantly in all three categories in 2020.
By Paul_Bretl
This is now Mike Pettine's third season as defensive coordinator of the Green Bay Packers, and we saw this defense make a fairly significant jump between 2018 and 2019. By weighted DVOA, which takes into account other factors such as the down and distance, as well as the opponent to help quantify a defenses play by more than just yards given up, the Packers ranked 29th in 2018 and 15th in 2019. Not great by any means, but much better.
This jump was, of course, sparked by the offseason signings of Za'Darius Smith, Preston Smith, and Adrian Amos, along with Jaire Alexander being in Year 2 and Kenny Clark continuing to improve.
Although the mantra for this defense became "bend but don't break" because of the way opposing offenses were able to move the ball between the 20-yard lines, the Packers were very good last season in three key areas. They kept opponents out of the end zone, they forced turnovers, and they pressured the quarterback.
Unfortunately, through five games this season, this Green Bay defense has regressed, and they haven't been nearly as effective in those aforementioned aspects of the game. The Packers are now back to being ranked 29th by DVOA.
In 2019, the Packers allowed a red zone touchdown 53.7 percent of the time; this was the NFL's 11th best rate. But this year, that percentage has sky-rocketed to 76.5 percent and ranks 29th.
As far as getting after the quarterback goes, Green Bay was top-5 in pressure rate last season; however, this year, they rank 30th with a pressure rate of only 14.9 percent.
When it comes to takeaways, the Packers forced 25 turnovers a year ago, which was the seventh most in football. But through five games this season, they have only three and are tied for the lowest amount in the NFL.
With Mike Pettine's defensive philosophy and playing a lot of soft zone coverages, he isn't going to stress offenses. Instead, his goal is to eliminate the big play and force opposing offenses to string together long drives in order to score with the expectation that the defense will make a play or that simply the drive will stall with that many plays.
However, when the defensive front is unable to pressure the quarterback, as we saw Tom Brady do, he was able to find the soft spots in coverages and pick the secondary apart. The lack of pressure is also contributing to Green Bay's struggles in the red zone, and their inability to force turnovers is allowing those long drives to continue.
While I expect Pettine to come under a lot of scrutiny in the coming days, and I understand why with his conservative play-calling and love for the 3-man rush, admittedly, most of the players on the defensive side of the ball aren't playing their best either.
As is always the case in football, many other factors are contributing to the Green Bay Packers' issues on defense. With that said, red zone defense, quarterback pressures, and turnovers are three key categories that this defense is just not producing at the same rate in. And it's showing on the field.
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__________________________
Born and raised in Green Bay, WI and I still call it home. After my family, watching the Packers, sharing my opinions on the team through my writing and interacting with other fans is my greatest passion. You can find me on Twitter at @Paul_Bretl.
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Comments (54)
rstain99
October 19, 2020 at 12:08 pm
D line is below average, ZSmith can be neutralized when they are getting no pressure from other side. Kris Barnes nice story, others just don't affect the game. Safeties were no show, Amos sorry was excited about him but no better than Ha Ha. Teams will have blueprint punch them in the mouth watch them fold their tent. Mind set has to change or AR will be 38 soon and no chance past NFC first round playoff. Bears play physical better put your big boy pants on.
Razer
October 19, 2020 at 01:48 pm
Well said 'rstain99'. For me - it all starts with that D-line. If you are going to play a 3-4, then your 3 better be very good. We are not. When you talk about Z Smith, he is really a one-trick pony or a situational player. I don't understand why teams don't just run to the left all night long.
You are right to applaud the play of Kris Barnes but it is the only play at linebacker worth mentioning. Missed draft picks across the board on defense makes all this particularly painful, especially at safety. Amos struggled to run with Gronk, took poor angles all night long and he is our best safety.
The offense will need to figure out how to play power football because this defense isn't carrying us very far.
Coldworld
October 20, 2020 at 09:10 am
Only thing I disagree with you on is Amos. He has made some plays this year, but I accept he hasn’t been what I was expecting. Personally, I have wondered if the constant shifting of personnel in front of him due to injury is causing issues in terms of confidence or usage at the safety level. That said, I do not see any of the major attitudinal traits that led HaHa out of town and then the league.
Ollie1960
October 19, 2020 at 12:14 pm
Pettine is garbage
frankthefork
October 19, 2020 at 01:47 pm
A big thumb up. Wasn't much coming from the browns.
GA-Packer
October 19, 2020 at 03:09 pm
Packers are a finesse team. Any physical team will beat them into submission.
splitpea1
October 19, 2020 at 12:40 pm
Hats off to Preston for being a team guy, but I really think we need him more for run support and getting after the QB. 12 sacks and 56 combined tackles last season, 0.5 and 9 in five games this season.
Razer
October 19, 2020 at 01:38 pm
Seeing 91 dropping into coverage makes me cringe especially when Brady is standing back there surveying the field.
murf7777
October 20, 2020 at 08:20 am
I thought he was dropping more as well, but According to PFF thru five games it has been the same. So, his lack of pressure isn’t due to that.
Coldworld
October 20, 2020 at 09:16 am
This is a canard. No one else is covering (Except a handful of Burks snaps and a few deception calls). That is implausible. So PFF is likely mistaken. Those hundreds of Fackrell snaps don’t disappear.
What is more likely is that he is in a read role much of the time. I’m not a huge fan because that delays his commitment to either. I doubt his designed coverage performance is significantly different to last year, but delaying reactions on reads can kill efficacy just as they make a good rusher look ineffectual.
Bearmeat
October 19, 2020 at 12:52 pm
As the post suggests, turnovers and RZ defense are bad this year and were good last year. Those stats, unfortunately, are highly undependable year to year. They were bound to regress from 2019. How much they've regressed has been the problem.
This is not a stop you stone cold defense, and it never will be. Actually, IIRC we're giving up fewer yards than we were last year at this time. The problem of course is that we're not getting the game changing plays. It boils down to pressure rate. THAT is what has to change. Z and P need to do better. Gary must come along.
If they don't, it will be a quick exit in January, and Pettine, the entire staff, Z/P/Amos/Kirksey and King will all be looking for employment elsewhere, while we search for a new defensive coaching staff and YET ANOTHER infusion of defensive talent: As if that hasn't been an issue for the last decade. smh.
Leatherhead
October 19, 2020 at 01:05 pm
Z, P, and Kirksey are all under contract for next year, as are Amos, Savage, Alexander, and most of the rest of the defense.
This was a good defense last year with mostly the same people.
We score 10 points and give up 14 on turnovers and we are upset with a defense that allowed 24 points. About par for the course.
SteelyPhil
October 19, 2020 at 01:23 pm
I agree with you about this game in particular - we lost yesterday because our offense was atrocious against a formidable TB defensive front. That being said, pointing out that the defense has taken a step back this season with the exception of Jaire and maybe hitting on Krys Barnes as an UDFA is not unwarranted 5 games into the season. Will they gel later on? Hopefully. It's just mystifying that our dominant pass rush last year has been almost entirely absent when there haven't been many personnel changes, as you said.
Coldworld
October 19, 2020 at 03:22 pm
Really the bulk of the D could be argued to have allowed 17 in normal play. Jackson’s PI is something of an outlier in considering the overall D. Either way, the Tampa Offense hardly tore us apart. We did that to ourselves for the majority of their points.
Packerpasty
October 19, 2020 at 05:28 pm
so its ok with you that they couldn't put any pressure on a statue standing in the pocket?? O.K....the key to beating Brady is pressure...the Bears defense is coming on, Pettine better his s##t together...
Razer
October 19, 2020 at 01:44 pm
...As if that hasn't been an issue for the last decade. smh...
For me, the wasted draft picks and poor talent acquisition/retention over the last 10 years has been the blood boiler. If we are draft and develop and this is all we have then more changes are required in the front office. Just terrible
Coldworld
October 19, 2020 at 03:14 pm
So you have soured on Z already? Want to cut ties with King? Would have thought yesterday highlighted how much we missed him.
Fortunately more measured analysis is likely from the team. That said, not replacing Fackrell with another cover type is looking like a big mistake. The impact on Z as well As P Smith is noticeable. The one ray of light is not so much when Gary has been healthy, but he was clearly limited by snaps yesterday. P Smith is stuck out in coverage and the fast but way undersized Garvin rushes when Gary is gone. That is a mess.
As for the D line, maybe Adams adds something, but Clark didn’t look himself and, Keke shows promise at times, but we need depth and attitude. Add Winn if nothing else, at least he has desire it seems.
murf7777
October 20, 2020 at 08:32 am
CW, good comments as always. One thing to note thou, according to PFF P Smith thru 5 games has dropped into coverage an identical amount, 51 times. He’s not the same player when not dropping into coverage is the problem. Might he be playing injured? If not, he needs to step up big time or risk being cut at years end. Unfortunately, the way the 4 FA signings were done there’s not much advantage to cutting after year 2. That was one of my concerns with those contracts. Let’s hope he’s being slowed down by some minor injury and his play comes back to form. Z is doing just fine IMO. He’s never going to be a good run stopper.
Coldworld
October 20, 2020 at 09:21 am
As I noted above, I think PFF is wrong. My suspicion is that on a significant number of plays he is making a call, delaying his actions. No one else is covering out of Z, Gary and Garvin. No coverage is implausible.
That’s my guess. I think it’s not working, but Pettine doesn’t have an option since we don’t seem to have kept an OLB with coverage ability (we have even tried Burks briefly, which pretty much emphasizes that ).
Bearmeat
October 20, 2020 at 08:54 am
I haven't "soured" on Z so much as called a spade what it is. He is paid to be a top 10 rusher. He was that (plus some) in 2019. He has not been that so far in 2020, and P has been worse.
I also haven't given up on King so much as never really bought into the hype. He's a RAS freak of nature who doesn't cover quick twitch WRs well and is hurt far too often. Do we have someone better? No. Is he good? Yeah. Is he worth what it will cost to keep him? No.
On th DL, Keke is encouraging. Clark is great. We don't have any quality or depth after that. ILB is unsurprisingly a train wreck.
Overall we have the pieces to be a top half defense. With a franchise QB, that should be enough. We have to get better results with game changing plays than we have.
What I mean by the coaching staff and FAs looking for work isn't that I want them gone necessarily. Just me acknowledging the business: win or leave. They've not lived up to expectations in 2020. They will do so, or they will be gone after a quick playoff exit and 35 points against us per game in January etc...
Coldworld
October 20, 2020 at 09:25 am
That is reasonable. I’m certainly not happy with the way this D is playing, but I’m hopeful more settled starters will help. That said I’m concerned about the way the OLBs and Safeties are being used. Could that be a result of injuries around them? Maybe at safety, but I think the plan for, and usage of, P Smith is a failed experiment. Was that Pettine Ir the result of Gute not providing a cover OLB option?
flackcatcher
October 20, 2020 at 03:25 pm
Soft tissue injuries are a big factor here. Losing both cover ILB was a big blow to this defense. Of course Tampa Bay was going to take advantage. As you pointed out, P. Smith taking LB cover early on in games. Takes away from his strength in playing in line gap coverage. Looks like Greene is on a snap count which hurts their weak side cover. Burke's role in this defense is still fluid. With no preseason we are watching both coaching staffs experiment in real time. And the D line is still a work in progress. All in all this defense is still not too bad, but could be better.
flackcatcher
October 20, 2020 at 02:59 pm
So you think Gute going to fire Pettine. Good luck with that. With no preseason offensives are still ahead of the defense. That's that reality. Up until this game, it was Green Bay who held the advantage. With the new rules defenses are forced to play passive or gamble. TB gambled twice on coverage and changed the game. Credit to them for knowing Rodgers tendencies and winning. That's a wake-up call for both MLF and Rodgers. Outside that, all the critic cries about this defense are what was known before the season started. This defense is built for this NFL, not the NFL we all remember. The Packers offense lost this game, not the defense, as Rodgers and MLF comments post game admitted too.
McFly
October 21, 2020 at 12:22 pm
Bearmeat - Are you serious?? A spade a spade, eh? Z. Smith has 5 sacks through 5 games, he had 3 in the ATL game alone... so at least one sack in 3/5 games. I don't know what you consider a top-10 rusher, but he was last year and he still is. He's an absolute beast, and the best Def. Free Agent they've signed since Woodson. Quit being a prisoner of the moment.
TheVOR
October 19, 2020 at 01:07 pm
There have been massive failures by the organization. The first being not fielding a winning defense in a decade. That involves both coaching and player personnel. Week after week you watch these incredible ILB's, with speed and power and play making ability! Green Bay has been abysmal in solving that problem. Next, the coaching staffs have been mediocre on the defensive side of the ball. Our interior Defensive line is mediocre, the talent is mediocre and overpaid. If you don't have a DL, and ILB support, you don't have a defense! And then you have Gutz drafting a QB who will never successfully contribute at an NFL level. That pick needed to be DL or ILB..
This team will not compete with this defense, it's simply no good. Pettines stock is dropping a like a boulder in the ocean.. This will be his final year in GB barring some miraculous turnaround, which to point is unlikely. We don't have the horses.
Packers1985
October 19, 2020 at 04:07 pm
Couldn't agree more. Three straight drafts years with mediocre picks. All we got were 4 starters who are good and can stay on field and contribute. Looking at the other teams and how good the rookie's contributing it upsets more.
Packerpasty
October 19, 2020 at 05:31 pm
right on...sure hope Love is good cuz they could have had Queen which for sure would have been an upgrade...I got jealous watching those Tampa linebackers yesterday...
jannesbjornson
October 19, 2020 at 07:08 pm
A lot of people whiffed on LaVonte David in 2012. Ted took Perry. Devin White was pick # five overall. You have to lose a lot of games to get into the top spots, but I hear your pain. They stopped the talent run after Nick Barnett, the last ILB with a one pick. They are allergic to bad ass players in G.B.
TheBigCheeze
October 19, 2020 at 01:07 pm
gary is a bust.....the only time he even touched brady is when he yanked his face mask.....
Razer
October 19, 2020 at 01:44 pm
He is the new Nick Perry - unfortunately
Coldworld
October 19, 2020 at 03:16 pm
Which meant he got to the QB. Wish he had played more snaps.
BBlake
October 19, 2020 at 01:21 pm
I'm not a Pettine fan, in fact I thought he should have been fired after last season, but IMO he wasn't given much to work with in this offseason (FA & draft).
Fritz1218
October 19, 2020 at 02:22 pm
I could not agree more. My opinion is even if could stop the run it would be if the players made changes because sure as hell Pettine is not going to change his system. We should have known that when we got him from the Browns of all places.
Fritz1218
October 19, 2020 at 02:22 pm
I could not agree more. My opinion is even if could stop the run it would be if the players made changes because sure as hell Pettine is not going to change his system. We should have known that when we got him from the Browns of all places.
jeremyjjbrown
October 19, 2020 at 05:49 pm
Being hired by MM is basically a disqualifier as a DC IMO.
Capers two years out of ten that where good, basically because of Charles Woodson.
Mike Nolan in Dallas is orchestrating a train wreck.
Pettine is Dom Capers Jr. without the 2 good years.
NJ-RICK
October 19, 2020 at 02:03 pm
What did you expect when you keep guys like D Lowry around. The guy is just weak. R Gary the jury is still out on him. Could of have had Patrick Queen in the draft but went for the future with J Love. Bottom line is its only week 5 you still have 11 more games to play. trading deadline is two weeks away Buc's already made a trade for a DT from the Jets and what is Gute doing...? zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Tampa Bay is a physically strong team similair to last season's 49ers. Green Bay doesn't match up well with these type of ball clubs. Lets see what happens when they meet up with the Bears. Bears offense is average but Defense is solid. I still say they were very lucky to beat Tampa Bay 11 penallties hurt the Bucs. Bears were lucky home field officating. GO PACK GO.
jgando12
October 19, 2020 at 07:30 pm
Spot on. They seem reluctant to play with money in-season, except for FA retreads. Gutes and Ball are safeguarding $ due to reduced cap this year. Which means goodbye to Bahktiari & Linsley as they will not overpay those extended years on their contracts that just one other club has to offer. Same with King, though his injury proneness makes him easier to wave to, I think Jones has the best chance to get re- signed. All this means no trades. How else can we stomach the Lowry/Lancaster/Adams triumvirate that hasn’t performed to snot yet? Pettine is toast. Dropping Preston Smith into coverage? Alexander not covering m-t-m? The soft zone, 400 yards-per-game soul-crushing drives? Wouldn’t you like to see the kind of dramatic decision that really gets players attention? Like firing Pettine tomorrow? Remember LaFleur hired Jerry Gray. What could possibly be worse?
Coldworld
October 20, 2020 at 09:34 am
Resigning Lowry has proved to be in error. The contract prevents us cutting him really till this off season. That’s football: it happens. Lancaster has actually been pretty good at NT in Clark’s absence. Adams (amazingly) May have been our best D lineman on Sunday. Overall, the D did not lose that. The O gave up more points than we scored!
Deep Breath. Ask instead how we were so poorly prepared on Offense and apparently so lacking options and motivation. You are looking at the D because it was on the field so long. The real problem lies in how that came to be.
jannesbjornson
October 20, 2020 at 07:22 pm
The Ds job is to get off the field. Pettine had them in soft cover with little aggression toward Brady
egbertsouse
October 19, 2020 at 02:11 pm
The defense is soft. Tampa’s is fast and physical. In the early game I watched Pittsburgh’s which is also fast and physical. Is anybody else sick of this Capers/Pettine finesse defense? I sure am. Nobody likes to tackle or hit. I know everyone loves Z. Smith but I see a guy who does fine when things are going good and he can pad his sack numbers and do his routines but disappears when things get tough and dirty work has to be done. Typifies this defense
HighPlainsDrifter
October 19, 2020 at 04:14 pm
Z. Smith had the key sack/fumble/fumble recovery in the Saints game. That fact proves your narrative totally incorrect. Apparently Z's concern for social justice rubs you the wrong way.
dblbogey
October 19, 2020 at 05:29 pm
Go take a knee.
packerbackerjim
October 19, 2020 at 02:43 pm
When GB played NO I was puzzled why the DBs didn’t jump some routes. TB didn’t have the same reluctance, having blanketed all the WRs, including Adams, making me wonder if there is still a lingering injury issue.
BAMABADGER
October 19, 2020 at 04:31 pm
I love Pettine dropping Clark into coverage and rushing just two linemen, not three but two. He needs to be fired just for that bone head move.
MITM
October 19, 2020 at 05:24 pm
I hate Pettine and im not defending him at all, but I can think of one instance where that actually netted us a pick 6 from a different NG that sent us to the Super Bowl lol
Packerpasty
October 19, 2020 at 05:34 pm
Packer fans love history...to bad it won't repeat itself often enough...
Coldworld
October 19, 2020 at 06:17 pm
Won’t if you don’t try. This point is rubbish if it’s an occasional ploy and very acute if it’s a regular staple. As far as I know it’s not a frequent call.
PackfanNY
October 19, 2020 at 04:36 pm
Yes the defense was not great yesterday. In fact it stunk. Zero pressure on Brady all day long. On one play we rushed 3 players allowing Brady all day to pick out a receiver. Was Preston or Zadarious or Gary even at the game.
All that being said, if you think blaming Pettine and the defense as the sole cause then you just weren’t watching the game. The pick six by Rodgers was bad. It was worse when he threw a second interception on a ball Davante probably should have caught. From that point the Packers O-line played terribly. Play after play Devin White and others were all over Rodgers and the ball carriers. Blocking and EFFORT appeared optional. You might remember one play when a Buccaneer sprinted passed Jamaal Williams before crushing Rodgers. This was a bad game for just about everyone on our team.
The Packers are still 4-1. I think this is a good team. However, this can’t happen again this weekend. They need to get right back to business and take care of a struggling a Texans team. No excuses. Hopefully, our players play with a little sense of urgency after an embarrassing performance. It’s not the worst thing in the world but they need to get it right next weekend. Go Pack.
Coldworld
October 19, 2020 at 06:24 pm
I agree. I was nevertheless pleased that LaFleur was at least highly critical of the coaching and calling on O and D. I just don’t think MM would have come out with that and I doubt Pettine had a good day today. I hope LaFleur is hardest on himself though at least with respect to that game.
Perhaps this will Result in a more aggressive approach in the short term and help the coaches grow in the longer term.
Since'61
October 20, 2020 at 09:30 am
The defense needs to be more physical. It starts up front with stopping the run and getting more pressure on the QB.
We don’t need to reach last season’s numbers but the pass rush needs to be more consistent. Brady was too comfortable in his pocket. No hurries or sacks.
The other problem is that the defense does not play with a sense of urgency. They get the job done when they have a lead but too often they fail to play at full speed. This was especially true in Tampa after the Packers fell behind.
Pettine did not appear to have any answer to dial up the pressure on Brady. Our safeties have become MIA. Where was Raven Greene? I thought that he should have had more snaps and maybe he could have provided some physical play which was sorely lacking.
This defense needs a player like a Reggie White or a Nitschke who can just take over a game like yesterday’s and wreck the opposing offense and give the offense a chance to wake up.
Need leadership on the field. No one stepped up against Tampa. MLF and Pettine have a big job ahead to rebuild confidence for the next game. Thanks, Since ‘61
jannesbjornson
October 20, 2020 at 12:29 am
You hit it--no leadership. Putting guys in spots to make plays is on Pettine. His defense is timid.
Since'61
October 20, 2020 at 09:29 am
Agree! We need to be more aggressive on defense.
Thanks, Since ‘61
Coldworld
October 20, 2020 at 09:46 am
Pettine’s source of aggression has always been the pass rush. Last year that was real and it enabled players behind to make plays.
This year the OLB roster and usage seem to haw been ill balanced and the resulting adjustments have dramatically weakened our rush in conjunction with injuries to Gary and Clark. I have come to believe that this is a problem that is undermining Pettine’s philosophy and, with it, all levels of the D.
Whether the failure to replace Fackrell was a coaching determination or the result of Gute’s roster decisions I do not know, but if we can get a player able to be used in coverage this season I don’t have much hope of dramatic improvement regardless of players from D line to Safety. If we don’t get consistent OLB production this D unravels as a weapon.
Lphill
October 20, 2020 at 06:00 am
Hello Dan Quinn