Why the Packers will beat New England and why they Might not

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Why the Packers will beat New England and why they Might not

Nov 04, 2018

Sunday night in Foxborough, we will get to witness Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady go head-to-head for only the second time in their careers. It's going to be an incredible matchup at a time when the Green Bay Packers are in desperate need of a win.

Last week against the Rams, the Packers played their best game of the season. But thanks to a an untimely error from former Packer Ty Montgomery, Rodgers never got a chance to win the game at the end, leaving Green Bay at 3-3-1 in the standings.

Thankfully, the NFC North is still within reach. Minnesota is 4-3-1, while Chicago is 4-3. Essentially, the Packers are a half game back of both teams, but in order to stay that way, they need to sneak out a win or two from this difficult four-game stretch.

That starts tonight in New England, against Brady and the Patriots, who have won five games in a row. Last week, Green Bay was an 8.5 point underdog. Tonight, the Patriots are favored by 5.5. A lot of that has to do with a Patriots defense that ranks 25th in the NFL in yards allowed.

After the Patriots, Green Bay returns home to take on Miami, then goes to Minnesota and Seattle in back-to-back weeks. Basically, the Packers have to find a way to win at least one of those road games, otherwise, they will find themselves at 4-6-1, and that doesn't seem like a viable path to the postseason.

New England is definitely the toughest of the three games to win, but here are a few reasons why the Packers could pull out a victory or why they go could home empty-handed again.

Why the Packers might win

I feel like I say this every week, but if the Packers are going to beat the Patriots, Rodgers needs to play at an elite level. Yet, against the Patriots 27th-ranked pass defense, that should be a lot easier to do than it was last week against the Rams. Geronimo Allison is going to miss the game and Randall Cobb is questionable, but as long as Davante Adams is on the field, the Packers will be just fine. Adams has gone over 100 yards in fourth straight games and he will need to have a big night if the Packers are going to upset New England.

Of course, Bill Belichick is great at taking away other team's strengths, so you can bet he will try his best to neutralize Adams. That could mean other guys like Cobb -- if he plays -- Jimmy Graham and the rookie receivers will need to step up. Another guy that will need to step up is Aaron Jones if he is given the chance.

Jones has just 44 rushing attempts in five games, but he is getting 6.2 yards per carry and since he has been back in the lineup, Green Bay has rushed for 100 yards or more four times. Mike McCarthy needs to give Jones 20 touches or so and the second-year back needs to make the most of that opportunity. Force MM to keep him on the field. At this point, nothing else seems to work.

Not only will Rodgers and the offense need to score points, but it will also need to take care of the ball. Winning the turnover battle or at least keeping it neutral is also a necessity. Seeing as the Packers are 14th in the NFL in takeaways and New England ranks 23rd in giveaways, it's possible Green Bay could win in that area and if it does, a win is much more likely.

One thing that could help with that is a secondary that will have Tramon Williams at safety. Williams can still run, he can tackle and he is great at reading the quarterback. In theory, he should be able to do a decent job replacing Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, but we will see. More Josh Jackson should be a good thing. And with Jaire Alexander and Kevin King playing as well as they are right now, the Packers should be in good shape.

The pass rush is a big concern, If Mike Pettine has to scheme a bunch of sacks or try to against Brady, it might mean bad news. Yet, the Patriots offensive line is far from spectacular, so Kenny Clark, Mike Daniels and Clay Matthews should have some chances to get after Brady. And even though the pass rush is inconsistent at times, it has been productive, notching 23 sacks in seven games.

Why Green Bay might lose

Having Tom Brady and Bill Belichick on the other side of the field are usually two good reasons why a team might lose, but a couple more could be James White and Rob Gronkowski.

White is a shifty back that kills teams as a receiver and it's hard to see how the Packers will match up with him. The same can be said for Gronk. If both of those guys are good to go (Gronk is questionable) they will cause some matchup problems for the Packers. On a side note, it will be interesting to see if Jackson gets a shot at covering Gronk.

Basically, this game is going to come down to the quarterbacks and which defense can find a way to get a few stops. The Packers defense did a decent job against Jared Goff last week and if Green Bay can hold Brady and the Pats to 30 or less, it would be a win.

That means the Packers will have to score 30 points or so to win, something that's very possible. Rodgers and the Packers scored 31 to beat the Patriots in 2014, his only start against New England and it will take a similar effort, plus some help from the defense, to win on Sunday night football in New England.

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Chris is a sports journalist from Montana and has been blogging about the Packers since 2011. Chris has been a staff writer for CheeseheadTV since 2017 and looks forward to the day when Aaron Rodgers wins his second Super Bowl. Follow him @thepackersguru

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