Which rookies will contribute in 2023 for the Packers?
It is not easy for a player to see meaningful snaps in his first NFL season. However, a few Packer rookies in this year's class may stand out above the rest.
By rex.sheild
While some newly-minted NFL players make the transition from college to the pros look easy in their first year on the gridiron, the reality is that the transition is anything but. The speed of the game is faster. The concepts and schemes are more sophisticated. The players are far superior to the previous level. And, last but not least, there is no hand-holding in the National Football League. It is a grown man’s league.
The Green Bay Packers selected 13 players in last week’s draft, the most since 2000. That year’s draft class most notably produced tight end Bubba Franks (first round), offensive tackle Chad Clifton (second round), linebacker Na’il Diggs (fourth round), defensive end Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (fifth round), and offensive tackle Mark Tauscher (seventh round). Those five players played in a combined 715 games. If the Packers’ 2023 draft can produce similar results, the team’s long-term prospects are through the roof. Putting aside the long-term view, what are realistic expectations in terms of playing time and production for the 2023 class heading into their first year in the NFL?
It may be helpful to look back at the impact made in their first years by players drafted by general manager Brian Gutekunst, keeping in mind that some players saw more game action than others either because of the position they played (i.e. one without much depth/one of need) or because they were just that good. For instance, offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins was not penciled in as a Day 1 starter when he was drafted, but he was too good to keep off the field as he appeared in all 16 games during his 2019 rookie campaign, starting 14 of them, and produced an Approximate Value of 7 according to Pro Football Reference.
Safety Darnell Savage, one of the team’s two first-round selections in 2019, played a position of need, which is why he played 94% of the defensive snaps that season (865 snaps). He recorded two interceptions in 14 starts to go along with 55 combined tackles and an AV of 5.
Cornerbacks Eric Stokes (14 starts) and Jaire Alexander (11 starts) both saw significant playing time during their rookie campaigns and made an impact, with an AV of 4 and 5, respectively. In addition, wide receivers Christian Watson (2022 second-round selection) and Romeo Doubs (2022 fourth-round selection) were thrust into the action because of the lack of depth at the position. Watson played in 14 games (11 starts) a season ago, catching 41 passes for 611 yards and seven touchdowns. His Approximate Value of 7 is tied with Jenkins and linebacker Quay Walker for the best AV in a player’s first year among those drafted by Gutekunst. Doubs, meanwhile, appeared in 14 games as well (seven starts) in 2022 and registered 42 receptions for 425 yards and three touchdowns.
Speaking of Walker, one of the team’s 2022 first-round selections played in all 17 games a season ago (16 starts) and had 121 combined tackles. He also played well in pass coverage as he only allowed a completion percentage of 53.3% (45 targets) and a passer rating of 63.6.
On the flip side, edge rusher Rashan Gary, the other first-round selection in 2019, had Preston Smith and Za'Darius Smith ahead of him on the depth chart and the team signed both players to lucrative long-term deals earlier that offseason. As a result, while Gary appeared in all 16 games, he only registered 21 total tackles, three tackles for loss, and two sacks in 244 snaps (24% of the defensive snaps), with an AV of 2. Defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt, the 28th overall selection in the 2022 NFL Draft, also played in less than 30% of the defensive snaps (23%) during his rookie campaign, chipping in 15 combined tackles and 1.5 sacks in 224 snaps.
Altogether, several rookies in each of the previous draft classes barely saw snaps on their respective sides of the ball and were confined to snaps solely on special teams, if any snaps at all. The same will most likely be true for the 2023 class as well. However, I believe there will be a few offensive and defensive standouts from this year’s class.
For starters, Lukas Van Ness, the 13th overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, will most likely fall in line with Gary’s and Wyatt’s rookie play time, though it could definitely be higher since it is undetermined whether Gary will be ready for Week 1 at this point.
In addition, I believe that TE Luke Musgrave (42nd overall), WR Jayden Reed (50th overall), TE Tucker Kraft (78th overall), WR Dontayvion Wicks (159th overall), and S Anthony Johnson Jr. (242nd overall) will all play meaningful snaps in 2023 and that is because they all play a position that is lacking serious depth.
ESPN projects that Reed will be second on the team in targets (77), receptions (47), and yards (585), and tied for second in receiving touchdowns (3). The Worldwide Leader also believes that Wicks will be in the mix as the team’s WR4, projecting that he will catch 27 passes on 43 targets for 319 yards and two touchdowns. For reference, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, a fifth-round selection similar to Wicks, registered 38 receptions for 581 yards and 2 touchdowns in his inaugural NFL season in 2018. He finished third on the team in yards and tied for third in receptions that season.
As for the tight ends, ESPN projects that Musgrave will be the leader in the clubhouse with 26 receptions (38 targets) for 273 yards and two touchdowns. ESPN projects that Kraft will be second in line at the position (18 receptions on 27 targets for 192 yards and one touchdown).
Finally, the following statement should not come as a surprise: the safety position is not a strong suit for the Packers. That is why I believe Johnson Jr. will see the field in a significant way this season. In fact, I would not be surprised if he became a starter at some point. A versatile player, the Iowa State product started out as a nickelback for the Cyclones before transitioning to safety last season. The four-time All-Big 12 honoree made 54 starts over his five-year career, including starts in 53 consecutive games, and recorded two interceptions in 2022 to go along with 60 total tackles. Jim Nagy, the executive director of the Senior Bowl, said that Johnson Jr. was “one of the most experienced and durable defensive backs in the draft.”
Anthony Johnson Jr can be a starter in this Packers defense!
Tough as nails! Excellent top/down instincts, play ID & tackling. Sorts thru trash. Not afraid to take on OL
I can see him sliding right into Amos role Day 1. I know it’s a rather large projection for a 7th Rd pick pic.twitter.com/nLTGTPAcyw
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) May 1, 2023
Some have proclaimed that the Packers are in rebuild mode. If the aforementioned rookies can produce throughout the 2023 season, the Packers may be much better than the public projects.
__________________________
Rex is a lifelong Packers fan but was sick of the cold, so he moved to the heart of Cowboys country. Follow him on Twitter (@Sheild92) and Instagram (@rex.sheild).
Comments (36)
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
May 05, 2023 at 12:25 pm
Rex,
Good article and sure fun speculating!
"I believe that TE Luke Musgrave (42nd overall), WR Jayden Reed (50th overall), TE Tucker Kraft (78th overall), WR Dontayvion Wicks (159th overall), and S Anthony Johnson Jr. (242nd overall) will all play meaningful snaps in 2023 and that is because they all play a position that is lacking serious depth."
I too believe on offense all these guys are going to get a significant amount of playing time. Without knowing exactly how these players integrate with one another makes it tough to project but I think Musgrave has soooo much upside and can be used in so many creative ways including the Z-Slot, and at times even outside in the X. Jayden also may be a fun surprise. We picked up a lot of good players along with Tucker....and do not sleep at all on Wicks. He brings an intriguing skill set & may surprise! Defensively Brooks really intrigues me....a lot! Wooden, I still am trying to figure out exactly what his role will be & who will he be taking snaps away from?
BirdDogUni
May 05, 2023 at 01:20 pm
I love the Jayden Reed pick, but I also think Bo Melton will factor into our offensive plans, as well. They're almost identical in size, but Bo is a bit faster, with one more year of NFL experience under his belt. Will be fun to see them both in camp.
TKWorldWide
May 05, 2023 at 04:26 pm
Agreed!
murf7777
May 06, 2023 at 06:46 am
I don’t have an opinion on Bo because I didn’t watch any of his tape. Jayden I think is going to be the real deal and if his GB scout timing of 4.37 I don’t see him getting caught from behind. What I really like about Jayden is how well he does at contested catches and difficult catches where you have to contort your body. He’s an explosive athlete as well.
I think Kraft will get the most reps at TE. The man is great at YAC, and just looks like the better player right now. That said, Musgrave seems to have a higher ceiling.
It will be exciting to see how last and this years rookies do.
Coldworld
May 06, 2023 at 07:58 am
Melton’s success will hinge on whether he can catch consistently and effectively. That and a niggle were what set him back in the Seahawks camp (and some strong competition).
My guess is that the best WR will include Toure and Reed, both of whom will take slot snaps as well a Y ones. Melton is in a fight for the 5th spot. I think he has a good chance to win, but they’re no obvious X back up in that bunch, so that would mean keeping 6. Wicks, DuBose or Cotton (the unknown with 3.7 speed). To compete, Melton is going to have to show reliable hands. The same is true with Wicks, though I personally think it’s less likely he does.
Johnblood27
May 05, 2023 at 02:44 pm
yo snotty, there are a LOT of snaps to eat along the DL with Lowrey and Reed gonzo.
The 'yootz' should get a baptism by fire rotating among Kenny, TJ and Wyatt.
It will be a tough indoctrination to life in the trenches in the NFL, but they have to learn sometime... I hope they learn fast and hold up.
Remember... after 17 games nobody is a rookie anymore!
splitpea1
May 05, 2023 at 12:32 pm
By necessity the two tight ends and Reed will contribute. And Van Ness is going to get more snaps that you might normally expect (also probably out of necessity), which I think is a good thing. If Wooden gets off to a good start and proves he is a useful player, you might see some of him as well. Johnson I'm not so much convinced about yet. Our safety group may not be awe-inspiring at this point, but there are players with NFL starting experience ahead of him--and that's not taking into account any veterans Gute may sign in the future.
PackEyedOptimist
May 05, 2023 at 12:36 pm
Pretty much exactly my thoughts, SP1.
I think safety is in better veteran hands than most people think.
TKWorldWide
May 05, 2023 at 12:54 pm
I think safety is one of those positions where instincts and being “assignment sure” can prevail over a high RAS guy who lacks those things.
Is it too late to expect Savage to improve? He’s got a high RAS, he’s got a lot of experience, but…pretty unfulfilled, if you ask me.
jannesbjornson
May 05, 2023 at 04:36 pm
I'll go with Ben Fennell and start Johnson. Tucker should beat out Musgrave as the inline guy and let them run 12 sets with Watson clearing the sidelines. Cory Wooden should get 5 tech reps and I wouldn't sleep on Karl. He should be one of the Big four. Jaylen Reed is your slot guy. This group will compete and make the squad better. All of them had the extra covid year, not too green. Van Ness on passing downs.
Coldworld
May 06, 2023 at 08:01 am
There’s a great deal to like about Johnson, but even he and his former coach admit he’s still got a lot to learn at S. It shows on film too, alongside his potential. I’m not keen to rush him. I think it takes a little while to get him ready and that he benefits from that. If he’s starting immediately , we have a serious issue.
Coldworld
May 05, 2023 at 12:37 pm
Obviously the hope is Anders nails down the kicking role. Other than that, injuries aside, Reed and Van Ness are the most obvious immediate candidates to contribute significantly. I think Musgrave will see snaps as primarily a WR who can block, though Kraft could too. Both need to work on their blocking technique at this level that I think takes a little time, even for Kraft. I see one on the field at a time early. I can see Wooden and Brooks in the rotation, but quite how and where I’m not sure.
Beyond that, I think it’s probably developmental/STs, unless injuries bite. I like most of the later picks a lot, but they need polishing before I’d want to see offensive or defensive snaps in numbers, or I think they will be behind returning players. I see Johnson as one who is in this group.
Dubose could be a surprise as a wild card big slot/X if they want one who is not a TE to allow Watson to move and the new TEs to be just that. If Cox keeps his head on straight, he has the talent to make the roster and get some snaps.
croatpackfan
May 05, 2023 at 12:54 pm
It may pan out as you projected, Rex. But I'm intriguing what about Toure. He get few snaps last season, still have one TD on the record.
It may be that Packers will start with 3 last year selections at WR, but I believe Jaydon Reed will eventualy become starter. His tape looks so good, that it is hard to count him out. Regarding other WR Packers selected this year, they will have to get a lot of work, but as many suggested, there might be some pleasent surprises. Also, I will not count out Bo Melton, so it would be interesting TC. There is 7 WR on Packers roster plus 3 unsigned drafted WR, total 10, plus 7 TE. Lot of receiving players asking for snaps in practice!
Coldworld
May 05, 2023 at 12:56 pm
Pretty normal WR numbers at this time of year. There will be injuries and not all will progress fast.
Coldworld
May 06, 2023 at 08:08 am
It’s going to be very interesting to see who Love throws to. Last year in preseason Toure was one who he liked to. He also threw the TD pass to Toure. I think that Love will make this a much more open competition behind Doubs and Watson.
TKWorldWide
May 05, 2023 at 01:01 pm
If Gary isn’t ready week 1, if it isn’t Van Ness, then who?
Also, Van Ness is an edge, right? Not a base DE? Likely he’ll move inside in nickel frequently like ZaDarius did, I think.
And
Wow! That 2000 class was something!
It’s going to be a fun training camp. So much opportunity, so many new players. Exciting!
packerbackerjim
May 05, 2023 at 04:06 pm
Hollins played reasonably well and I would not be surprised if he were to start. Van Ness will get a fair share of snaps both at EDGE and inside, especially on 3rd and long. Gervin not so much.
Coldworld
May 06, 2023 at 08:18 am
What I expect, health permitting, is that we have upgraded our rotational depth. Gary, when back, will probably not be himself as a rusher for a while. But we have Smith, Enagbare, Van Ness and I believe Hollins and maybe Cox, if he can not be a problem. Hollins is the nearest thing to a speed rusher/3rd down guy in that list. That’s a big upgrade in terms of rotations and reserve depth. If a guy like Garvin plays well enough to change that great, but our depth didn’t last year.
BradHTX
May 05, 2023 at 04:33 pm
“Wow! That 2000 class was something!”
And that’s just the draft class… Don’t forget that’s also the year Wolf traded for Ahman Green (and brought in Russell Maryland and Allen Rossum as well). Great year of additions all round.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 04:44 pm
Yes, Van Ness' personal coach (who is also Kenny Clark's personal coach) said he was told by the team that Van Ness will be groomed as an edge player. Sure theres the possibility that hes used like Zadarius Smith was (rushed from inside at times) down the road, but it doesnt sound like theyre gonna throw that much on his plate yet.
Coldworld
May 06, 2023 at 08:11 am
Enagbare could easily start week one. The issue isn’t who starts, or who plays the most in week one, but how the snaps are distributed over the season.
greengold
May 05, 2023 at 01:06 pm
Rex, this is a great piece.
Disagree slightly on Lucas Van Ness, as I believe he’ll be unleashed early and often for some OJT. Thinking he fits that position of need category.
Funny how differently people view draft picks, their value, where they should have been taken, etc.
I’m thinking this draft slept bigtime in terms of player value with many of our draft picks. Maybe I’m homering a bit, but, I really work hard to not do so.
Just reviewed some info. We picked 9 of PFF’s Top 200 players. Imagine, 9 of them shortly after Karl Brooks went off the board in R6 Pick #179.
PFF Top 200 Overall Players
27 Lucas Van Ness
49 TE Luke Musgrave
74 Tucker Kraft
90 Anthony Johnson Jr.
99 Karl Brooks
122 Jayden Reed
136 Colby Wooden
179 Grant DuBose
188 Dontayvion Wicks
That’s a lot.
I think a number of us were hoping Gutekunst could maximize the impact of his Day 3 selections better than he had 2018-2021. Looks like he may have -if- that’s any indicator.
These rankings are all highly subjective. Nonetheless, I do respect PFF data points.
Some others just fyi:
DraftBuzz
26 Lucas Van Ness
47 Luke Musgrave
89 Tucker Kraft
111 Colby Wooden
133 Jaylen Reed
142 Karl Brooks
*165 Brenton Cox Jr.
180 Dontavion Wicks
264 Carrington Valentine
280 Anthony Johnson Jr.
285 Grant Dubose
298 Lew Nichols III
403 Christian Morgan
Draftek
11 Lucas Van Ness
52 Luke Musgrave
79 Tucker Kraft
107 Jayden Reed
108 Karl Brooks
112 Colby Woooden
177 Dontayvion Wicks
181 Carrington Valentine
227 Anthony Johnson Jr.
*236 Brenton Cox Jr.
295 Grant DuBose
Athlon
29 Lucas Van Ness
76 Luke Musgrave
82 Tucker Kraft
87 Jayden Reed
109 Karl Brooks
153 Colby Wooden
161 Dontayvion Wicks
237 Lew Nichols III
283 Anthony Johnson Jr.
289 Grant DuBose
Ferrari-Driver
May 06, 2023 at 08:55 pm
GG, interesting info. Thanks for doing the research and posting it.
MilkCan44
May 05, 2023 at 02:25 pm
I would like to find out what Samori Toure is missing that he is seldom mentioned in projections - either when articles appear about Watson and Doubs, or about the three new draft choices' chances of playing. Someone enlighten me. Thanks.
PatrickGB
May 05, 2023 at 02:45 pm
Good point. Perhaps because he was a seventh rounder and did not play much last year.
Coldworld
May 05, 2023 at 03:26 pm
He will be in the mix. He just doesn’t have as high a profile.
packerbackerjim
May 05, 2023 at 04:09 pm
Granted it was just one play,but Toure put on a great double move and created separation rarely seen last year.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 04:41 pm
Well he was a 7th round pick who barely played last year and they just drafted 3 more receivers this year. I like Toure and hope he makes a splash. But it seems the team isnt banking on him to do so.
LambeauPlain
May 05, 2023 at 02:40 pm
The my guess of the greatest contributors this season from this Class of 13:
1. Reed. His route running, speed and "want to" will get him snaps. And more snaps as PR...Bicassia with both Reed and Nixon on returns? Well now!
2. Musgrave and Kraft. This will be perhaps the best talent at 12 personnel MLF has ever had. Fits right in with the IOC scheme and establishing the run to open up the pass.
3. Brooks. I just think with both Reed and Lowry gone, Brooks will get more opportunities to display his talent early in camp. He was DT playing Edge and still was a wrecking ball. Imagine him inside with Kenny and Wyatt. He could quickly become the #3 DL.
4. Johnson. I think he has a strong chance to start.
5. Others with significant snaps...Van Ness all over the D line in subs. Carlson if he is the new K. And Wooden, if he in DL rotation.
Cheesey51
May 05, 2023 at 03:16 pm
Rex
Great article. Makes one thing:
Has anyone ever put together a series of articles/Documentary on what it takes from college to pros?
For instance, the pre training prior to the draft, the training after the draft, the schooling, the training and then the adjustment from part time athlete and player to full time player. Where 21 and 22 yr old are expected to play as equals against and with grown men.
Enlighten me
Just Sayin....
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
May 05, 2023 at 04:38 pm
In my humble opinion, this season wont be about what the rookies do. I dont usually put too much stock into the words of Pete Bukowski, but when he says "most rookies are bad", he's spot on. I believe this season hinges on the year 2 players. Even the biggest Gute haters tend to agree the 2022 draft class was one of of his best. How big of a year 2 jump those guys make will either cement or destroy that sentiment. Im expecting big things from Walker, Wyatt, and Watson. Also expecting Tom, Doubs, Toure, and Rhyan to improve too. What the rookies do this year is obviously exciting to contemplate but my expectations for them are tempered.
PeteK
May 06, 2023 at 09:55 am
Absolutly, and contributions from this years rookie class even if as solid backup roles will greatly help. However, I believe, the offensive line development as the major key to success.
greengold
May 06, 2023 at 12:34 am
Sure is great getting a glimpse of our new players on the local news. Saw 94 Brooks, 96 Wooden, 13 Wicks, 22 Watts, 11 Reed, 88 Musgrave, 57 Cox Jr., 86 DuBose. 36 Johnson Jr. 80 Melton. 90 Van Ness.
Exciting stuff, especially for them. Some of them taking pictures of their locker with their nameplate above. Life changing moments.
Saw interviews with Van Ness, Wooden & Reed. All 3 first rate guys. Super happy being in GB for Rookie Minicamp.
Then saw a graphic on Sportscenter:
Musgrave
Reed
Kraft
Wicks
DuBose
Tied for the most WR/TE drafted by any team since 1994. Oddly, SF took a kicker in R3 of 1994….
Wild, whacky stuff…
PackyCheese500
May 06, 2023 at 08:25 am
I think Musgrave and Kraft will make a much larger impact in year 1 than most rookie TEs make. Anthony Johnson will also be n immediate contributor, too.
golfpacker1
May 06, 2023 at 09:18 am
If Cox gets his head straight, he could be a big rotational piece. He could be the steal for us. A lot of talent there. Gary had some issues at Michigan and it seems the light went on when the big money started flowing. Its a big motivator.
golfpacker1
May 06, 2023 at 09:20 am
Toure got no chance at all until the end of the year. And he also shined in the pre season. He was a stud in college with only fair CB play and terrible coaching.