What will Rashan Gary's next contract look like?

The former first round pick is entering the final year of his rookie contract. 

When general manager Brian Gutekunst drafted edge rusher Rashan Gary with the 12th overall selection in the 2019 NFL Draft, the pick did not inspire a lot of confidence among the Packer faithful, if for no other reason than it did not immediately address a need. After all, the team signed edge rushers Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith to lucrative deals during free agency months before. However, four years later, the pick should inspire a lot more confidence. Gary, who will turn 26 in December, is on the final year of his rookie contract after the team picked up his fifth-year option a season ago. It is very likely, if not guaranteed, that Gutekunst & Co. will sign Gary to a long-term extension in the not-too-distant future. The question is: what will Gary’s second contract potentially look like? 

The Michigan product did not exactly hit the ground running in his first NFL season, largely because he was a raw, developmental player and was stuck behind two stout edge rushers. While he appeared in all 16 games of the 2019 season, he only played in 24% of the defensive snaps and registered paltry stats in those snaps: 21 combined tackles, three QB hits, and two sacks. And according to Pro Football Reference’s Advanced Stats, he was only brought on a blitz five times that season. The 2020 season provided incremental increases across the board. He finished second on the team in sacks (five) and tied for second on the team in QB hits (11) in four starts. Mind you, he only played in 48% of the defensive snaps. 

The 2021 season represented the biggest step yet in Gary’s progression. The New Jersey native finished the season with 9.5 sacks, which was top 20 in the NFL; 28 QB hits, which led the team and ranked seventh overall among NFL defenders; and 53 QB pressures, which ranked fifth among linebackers. He also produced a PFF Pass Rush Grade of 90.1, first among NFC defenders and the best figure by a Packers edge rusher since 2006. 

Gary’s 2022 season got off to a blistering start as he had six sacks, 12 QB hits, and 38 QB pressures in eight games before suffering a torn ACL against the Detroit Lions in Week 9. Despite missing the second half of the season, Gary still finished second on the team in tackles for loss, with seven, and 10th in win rate, according to PFF. Altogether, Gary’s value to the Packers is almost immeasurable. If you need any convincing, take a look at the tape after Gary went down last season – the team’s pass rush was nonexistent. 

According to Over The Cap, seven edge rushers have an average annual salary of at least $20 million per year and another four players with an average annual salary of at least $17 million per year. Five of the seven players with an average annual salary of at least $20 million per year are all currently under 30 – TJ Watt (~$28 million), Joey Bosa ($27 million), Myles Garrett ($25 million), Maxx Crosby ($23.5 million), and Bradley Chubb ($22 million). Khalil Mack is entering his age-32 season and has an average annual salary of $23.5 million, and Von Miller, entering his age-34 season, has an average annual salary of $20 million. All five of the under-30 players signed either a four- or five-year deal, so I would suspect that the length of Gary’s contract will be the same. 

Crosby received roughly $26.5 million at signing and $53 million total guaranteed ($94 million in total value). Chubb received $33.4 million at signing and $63.2 million total guaranteed ($110 million in total value). Garrett received $50 million at signing and $100 million total guaranteed ($125 million in total value). Bosa received $78 million at signing and $102 total guaranteed ($135 million in total value). Watt received $80 million at signing, all of which was totally guaranteed ($112 million in total value). 

Mack signed his new deal at age 27, receiving a six-year extension that included $60 million guaranteed at signing and $90 million total guaranteed ($141 million in total value). Miller signed a six-year deal last offseason with the Buffalo Bills and was rewarded with $45 million guaranteed at signing and $51.4 million total guaranteed ($120 million in total value). 

Another contract to keep in mind when trying to ascertain Gary’s second deal is Harold Landry’s. The Tennessee Titans star edge rusher signed a five-year deal worth $87.5 million in 2022, an average annual salary of $17.5 million. His contract included $32.25 million guaranteed at signing and $52.5 million total guaranteed. Landry recorded 12 sacks and 75 tackles in 2021, both of which were career highs. 

Gutekunst and cap guru Ray Ball were probably not happy to see Chubb’s new contract with the Miami Dolphins. After Chubb registered 12 sacks and 14 tackles for loss in his 2018 rookie campaign, he has struggled to stay healthy and has only produced 16.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss in the last four seasons combined. Thus, the baseline for Gary’s new contract may very well be Chubb’s contract, but the Packers would obviously prefer that Gary’s second deal is in line with Landry’s contract.

The Packers could, and most likely will, point to the fact that Gary has only had one outstanding season, with a strong start to the 2022 season sprinkled in, and is coming off an ACL injury. Plus, he has never had a double-digit sack season. The team will want to pay Gary based on past performance, rather than base his contract on how they think he will perform in the future. 

Gary and his camp, on the other hand, will argue that he is only 25 years old and has the makings of an elite edge rusher and will only get better at a position that the Packers have zero young elite talent. They would also be well within their rights to ask how the pass rush fared once Gary went down. Frankly, that shows Gary’s true value to the Packers’ defense.  

Altogether, I project that Gary will receive between $22 million and $23.5 million per year in annual average salary, with $65 million in total guarantees if he signs a five-year deal, which would be the first three years of cash flow. 

 

PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE.

__________________________

Rex is a lifelong Packers fan but was sick of the cold, so he moved to the heart of Cowboys country. Follow him on Twitter (@Sheild92) and Instagram (@rex.sheild). 

__________________________

NFL Categories: 
4 points
 

Comments (47)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
mnbadger's picture

March 27, 2023 at 12:10 pm

A few things we know to be facts:
1. you need a lot of good players to win football games
2. good players are expensive
3. too many expensive players makes it hard to get more good players.
I wish Russ B and Gutey all the luck in the world to get this done and done well.
GPG!

10 points
10
0
Savage57's picture

March 28, 2023 at 05:45 am

The Packers need to move away from giving players top of the market contracts without actually seeing what the market is for them. The parade of 'highest paid at his position' contracts haven't yielded 'highest performance at his position' results.

Allow the market to set the price for the player, and if it's something you can live with, attempt to sign them to second contracts. If not, don't overpay them and use what remains to find someone whose performance aligns with what you're willing to pay for that one roster spot.

2 points
2
0
T7Steve's picture

March 27, 2023 at 12:21 pm

Pay the man. He's a worker and will come back better. Improve the edge depth and the D-line and make his job easier

9 points
9
0
mrtundra's picture

March 27, 2023 at 12:29 pm

I expect at least an Edge guy to be drafted by GBP, this draft. Gary won't be back until almost mid-season. We need our Edge guys to step up, as well as our DL in Clark, Slaton and Wyatt. I also expect Gute to draft a DL, this draft. We need depth at both positions.

9 points
9
0
PatrickGB's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:04 pm

Mt. T. I was thinking about his ACL. Some guys are unaffected while others have shorter careers. Look how long Bahk took. And it’s a whole offseason rehabbing and not training. He was really just coming into his own.

0 points
0
0
jannes bjornson's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:46 pm

Edge in rd one or two, then hunt another in the third. Reload the pass rush, get better and cover for the risk of Gary leaving. Stay ahead of the Curve. If he comes back strong, extend him.

-2 points
0
2
mrtundra's picture

March 27, 2023 at 12:30 pm

I expect at least an Edge guy to be drafted by GBP, this draft. Gary won't be back until almost mid-season. We need our Edge guys to step up, as well as our DL in Clark, Slaton and Wyatt. I also expect Gute to draft a DL, this draft. We need depth at both positions.

5 points
5
0
jannes bjornson's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:47 pm

He should have signed Reed.

0 points
0
0
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

March 27, 2023 at 11:58 pm

Unless an Edge is picked up in the trade (Jermain Johnson) I'd like to see two Edge rushers drafted. One like Murphy or White in that 280 lb range that can slide inside when needed. Then a smaller quicker Edge in that 240 -250 range. Plus, at minimum one DL.

1 points
1
0
jannes bjornson's picture

March 28, 2023 at 09:29 am

The braintrust cannot get into another Nick Perry situation.

1 points
1
0
WD's picture

March 29, 2023 at 06:50 am

We have a good D-line but we need a great D-line to win championships. We need more pressure on the QB and for God's sake; stop the run! Running backs need to be stopped before they get to the secondary. We need Aaron Donald! Since that is not possible we should draft a comparable such as Calijah Kancey who ran the fastest combine for a D tackle at 280 lbs since 2003. Another possibility at Edge/DL would be Adetomiwa Adebaware another 280 lb player who ran a stunning 4. 49! Let that sink in. Add TE Darnell Washington and you have just improved the offense and defense with your first three picks. The best way to help the secondary is to have a great front four. Just ask the Forty Niners.

0 points
0
0
BirdDogUni's picture

March 27, 2023 at 12:40 pm

HUGE...

4 points
4
0
PatrickGB's picture

March 27, 2023 at 12:54 pm

It’s been a trend for the team to pay big money to guys they really like. Bahk, Clark, Jenkins, Rodgers and even Jones (before it was redone) got big, league leading type contracts. So I think Gary will too. My only worry is that his injury might effect his future playing ability.

5 points
5
0
T7Steve's picture

March 27, 2023 at 12:56 pm

I hope you're right. I really like him, and we need him long term.

1 points
1
0
WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

March 27, 2023 at 12:58 pm

Love the stats on Gary's productivity. Even with limited snaps some seasons, he was always impactful when in the game. Puts to rest all the ridiculous media-created crap about him not having a high motor, not loving football, etc, which was the opposite of what his college coaches had to say about him. He was playing a role so that his teammate, Chase Winovich could make the plays and get the sacks. But in the NFL? Chase is already gone from the team that drafted him and has not been a standout in the NFL. Meanwhile, Gary, who put the team first at Michigan, has bloomed into one of the most disruptive defensive players GB has seen in years. Love the pick, love the player. Love to see him get healthy again.

13 points
13
0
MainePackFan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:08 pm

Good points WestCoast.

1 points
1
0
PackAttack4155's picture

March 27, 2023 at 01:02 pm

I'd like to see him get above 10-15 sacks in a season before throwing big money at him, but if he plays anywhere near the level he was at before his injury, he's going to get that payday.

5 points
6
1
LambeauPlain's picture

March 27, 2023 at 01:46 pm

Gary is going to get a good payday. I too was not overly excited with Gary's selection but it did provide evidence Gutey does value BAP on his board. Gary's production was just so-so at Michigan, but Gutey and his scouts believed his upside was immense. They were correct.

Probably another reason to get the Rodgers trade done before June 1 to clear his cap hit in 2023 and not have to carry anything over into 2024 when the Packers need to get Gary's K done.

2 points
4
2
stockholder's picture

March 27, 2023 at 02:16 pm

Franchise him.

-1 points
3
4
ImaPayne's picture

March 27, 2023 at 02:21 pm

When Gutt the genius drafted Gary I posted, Gary, just like Perry. Perry was from Michigan, Gary went to Michigan. Perry went missing in games but played lights out his contract year and gave the Pack the finger. I said, Gary and him are alike and I would be shocked if he signed a new contract. He will bolt for DA MOOONEY you can be sure of that.

-5 points
1
6
stockholder's picture

March 27, 2023 at 02:28 pm

The concern should be the injury.
And if Barry gets canned.
Will they change the defense?

3 points
3
0
The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

March 27, 2023 at 04:48 pm

So what if they do? His natural position in college was inline defensive end anyways. Hes one of those rare players who are scheme-proof.

0 points
0
0
EnemyTerritory's picture

March 27, 2023 at 06:32 pm

We can only hope Barry gets canned

2 points
2
0
DoubleJ's picture

March 28, 2023 at 09:12 am

If you are talking about Nick Perry he didn't go to Michigan he went to USC. Not to mention Perry only did really well in his contract year. Gary on the other hand has been flashing each year and down the stretch in the 2020 season he was turning into a beast. On the 3rd down DPI at the end of the 2020 NFCCG Gary was held BADLY by Wirfs and would have had a sack had he not been held. However, the refs love Brady so it was never called. Fast forward to 2021 and Gary kept playing at a high level. Against the 49ers in the playoffs he almost single-handedly destroyed their offensive game plan. Overall if he comes back from the ACL 100% then it will be a good resign by the Packers.

1 points
1
0
Lphill's picture

March 27, 2023 at 02:53 pm

I liked the Gary pick from day 1, but he needs to improve against the run, the Packers had Van Ness in today I would love to get him in the draft but don't know if that and Gary's knee injury would affect his future in GB. .

3 points
4
1
MainePackFan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:12 pm

I like Van Ness a lot. I like Murphy a little better, but I think he's gone by 15.

2 points
3
1
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

March 28, 2023 at 12:06 am

Hey Maine!
I agree about liking Van Ness, but like Murphy better!

1 points
1
0
DoubleJ's picture

March 28, 2023 at 09:13 am

Murphy was an elite run defender in college. I also like Nolan Smith for a different type of edge rusher who was also an elite run defender.

1 points
1
0
TKWorldWide's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:19 pm

The contract will have a non-zero digit in front, followed by lots of zeroes.

3 points
3
0
Swisch's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:34 pm

I'd really like to keep Gary as a Packer, but at the same time would not give him a max contract.
I'd offer maybe $15-$20 million per year for five years, with $30 million guaranteed.
In other words, I would be willing to let Gary go if he wants to be paid more.
***
I'm reluctant to give out extravagant contracts, and would reserve them for rare occasions based on elite performance both in the past and projected into the future.
Gary has had one elite season, and that's not enough to merit an elite contract -- especially coming off a serious injury.
If Gary doesn't understand these considerations, then I'd reluctantly set about replacing him with draft and develop.
***
I want the Packers to be generous with players, but there seems to be a trend in the NFL to overpay.
Let's be generous across the roster, instead of giving too much to a select few.
I wouldn't have made Bakh or Jaire highest paid at their positions.
I'm not inclined to put Gary at or near the top of the pay scale even at the prominent position of edge rusher.
In a couple or more years, we'll see if guys like Christian Watson and Quay Walker merit consideration for being paid a second contract that is among the highest-paid at their positions.
They'll need to show a lot in the meantime.
Then there's Jordan Love. We have to discern quickly, in the next year or two, whether he's worth a contract in the $30-$40 million per year range.
***
This is why the Packers should draft in the first four rounds guys who are ready to contribute to the team as rookies, not necessarily as starters but at least as significant rotation players.
After that point in the draft, we can take chances on projects.
In the meantime, go about enhancing an environment with the Packers where players are treated first class in every way, so that they enjoy going to work, look forward to the camaraderie of their teammates, and generally thrive in their careers as football players.
We'll pay them generously, too -- just not at the insane levels set by silly teams who mistake handing out excessive contracts for smart team building.
We'll pay them in a way in which they all do well financially as individuals, and also as a team.

0 points
2
2
DoubleJ's picture

March 28, 2023 at 09:16 am

You could also give Gary a contract that has accelerators based on making certain goals. Say if he gets 10 sacks he gets a bonus this year and then ups his base salary each year after that. Doing something along those lines can keep someone hungry all while protecting the team against regression or a one time wonder of a player.

2 points
2
0
Swisch's picture

March 28, 2023 at 02:01 pm

I think incentives are a great way to go in contracts, good for the player and good for the team.

0 points
0
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 28, 2023 at 07:23 pm

It might be better to trade Gary than make this kind of an offer. GB can get more than a 3rd round comp pick for Gary in a trade.

1 points
1
0
Coldworld's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:52 pm

Let’s get him back and at least in the field before we worry about this.

8 points
8
0
croatpackfan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 04:31 pm

Wise advice...

1 points
1
0
The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

March 27, 2023 at 04:46 pm

I rarely disagree with you C-Dub, but I disagree here. We need to pay him. The longer we wait, the more expensive he becomes

0 points
2
2
Coldworld's picture

March 28, 2023 at 08:26 am

I hold to the principle that until a player is recovered he’s not. That may be pessimistic, but this is a major contract with cap and probably guarantees that, given our cap situation, likely has significant knock on effects. If he’s not back fully then I want to try and structure a deal that buys time for him to prove he has returned not just bank on him doing so. Waiting allows me to do that and him to show progression, reducing the risk. Ultimately, we might prefer to franchise than throw out the kind of contract he would have expected prior to injury. Any added future cost being offset by the increase in certainty and thus reduction of risk.

3 points
3
0
Swisch's picture

March 27, 2023 at 04:52 pm

A Packer on the field may be worth two on the disabled list.
In this case, we may not have Gary until midseason, and not at full-strength until next season.

1 points
3
2
TKWorldWide's picture

March 27, 2023 at 06:27 pm

Did you say “worry”??

0 points
1
1
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 28, 2023 at 08:05 pm

That seems like the best idea though the player at some point might get annoyed, particularly if said player is actually playing in NFL games.

Um, wait, I read a questionable article on the Packers cap that indicated that Packers were $2M over the cap without a Gary extension that reduced his cap number by $3.025M. Well, the Packers do have a dwindling number of other options. Of course, they could approach Gary to see if he would convert his 5th year option into a signing bonus with 4 void years. Maybe, bikfdi.

0 points
0
0
The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

March 27, 2023 at 04:44 pm

$100 mil +

-4 points
0
4
playbuilding's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:36 pm

Like Perry, I was promoted to Gary when Gutt the genius chose me. Gary went to see where Perry grew up; Perry was a Michigander. Perry snuck out of games, but he lit up the scoreboard in his contract year to really stick it to the Pack. Given how much he resembles Gary, I remarked it would shock me if he signed a new contract. He always takes off for DA MOOONEY.

0 points
1
1
DoubleJ's picture

March 28, 2023 at 09:18 am

"When Gutt the genius drafted Gary I posted, Gary, just like Perry. Perry was from Michigan, Gary went to Michigan. Perry went missing in games but played lights out his contract year and gave the Pack the finger. I said, Gary and him are alike and I would be shocked if he signed a new contract. He will bolt for DA MOOONEY you can be sure of that."

Nice work having two accounts to post almost the same thing and try to make it look like multiple people have the same feelings.

2 points
2
0
JerseyAl's picture

March 28, 2023 at 06:51 pm

good catch. Guess I have to boot him/her again.

0 points
0
0
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

March 27, 2023 at 11:32 pm

If you have not heard Andy's interview of Gutey today at the owners meeting you have to see it on Twitter. Gutey essentially refutes what Rodgers said on McAfee....what a surprise! Everything I have thought about AR for several years was confirmed in Gutey's comments.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1640480212155772930

-1 points
1
2
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 28, 2023 at 07:49 pm

I thought Gute's remarks were those of a dumbass. Get the deal done. Justify yourself later. Be a grown up.

0 points
0
0
croatpackfan's picture

March 28, 2023 at 03:28 am

This is the nice piece of article I found about this situation in which Packers found themselves:
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/3/16/23642264/aaron-rodgers-green-bay...

0 points
0
0