What could each team interested in Rodgers offer in a trade package?
Aaron Rodgers hasn't decided his future yet. Photo: Mike De Sisti / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK
The weekend was not calm in Packerland. First, Mike Florio tweeted that the Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Tennessee Titans were/are interested in acquiring Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Then, Cheesehead TV Aaron Nagler reported the Packers were not engaged in any trade talks. But, with Rodgers' decision looming, we can do a fun exercise (especially if you are open to the idea of trading Rodgers) and analyze what kind of package each reportedly interested team may offer.
Denver Broncos
2022 picks: 9, 40
Future picks: 2023 1st
Players: Jerry Jeudy, Albert Okwuegbunam
The Broncos are certainly the team with the most capital between all of them. They have the higher pick, 9th overall, and extra 2nd and 3rd-round picks because of the Von Miller trade. As they have high picks and good young players to offer, the proposition here is that they send "only" two first-rounders, but they also would offer a high-second this year. In terms of market value, teams tend to lower one round each year in the future, so a top-40 pick in 2022 has a great value.
Regarding the players, Jerry Jeudy was a highly-thought prospect coming out of college, but so far hasn't been able to produce like his draft class counterparts Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb. But he still has two years of rookie contract, plus the fifth-year option. Albert Okwuegbunam is a solid tight end option with two cheap years remaining is his contract.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2022 picks: 20
Future picks: 2023 1st, 2023 3rd, 2024 1st
Player: Pat Freiermuth
The Steelers have the 20th overall pick and don't have a lot of good young players to offer. Therefore, they should send 3 1st-round picks to be competitive. Also, they could throw in a 3rd next year to entice the Packers. Tight end Pat Freiermuth would also be an important part of the equation. He was drafted in the second round last year and wasn't a member of the All-Rookie Team only because Kyle Pitts is a monster. Freiermuth had almost 500 yards and 7 touchdowns, and he is under contract through 2024 (with modest 934k, 1.2M, and 1.48M cap hits).
Tennessee Titans
2022 picks: 26, 90
Future picks: 2023 1st, 2024 2nd
Players: Jeffery Simmons, Amani Hooker
This offer is made with the understanding that the Packers offense will suffer without Aaron Rodgers and the best way to keep competitive is to have a great defense. The Titans would send a first and third-round picks this year (they don't have a 2nd because of the Julio Jones trade last season), plus a 1st in 2023 and a 2nd in 2024.
In this scenario, the Packers would also receive two good defenders who were among the best in their positions in 2021: defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and safety Amani Hooker.
The problem here is that both players are at the end of their rookie contracts. Hooker is in his final year, with a 2.54M cap hit, and will be an unrestricted free agent in 2023. Simmons, a former first-round pick, has a 2.2M cap hit this year in case of a trade, and the Packers would have a fifth-year option for 2023.
At the end, both offers have its pros and cons. Which one do you prefer?
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Wendell Ferreira covers the Green Bay Packers for Zone Coverage and Cheesehead TV. He is a Brazilian journalist with over a decade of experience covering the NFL, soccer, NBA, and MMA. Follow him on twitter at @wendellfp
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Comments (34)
stockholder
March 07, 2022 at 09:07 am
10 years to late. His game is with the press now. Not the FO.
Pilprin
March 07, 2022 at 09:16 am
I prefer the Denver deal, but would want one more day 2 pick. Wouldn't mind taking back Lock unless GB plans to go after Mariota
13TimeChamps
March 07, 2022 at 10:00 am
So you want FOUR picks and TWO young ascending players for ONE 39 year old? A 6 for 1 deal. Yeah...pretty sure that ain't happening my friend. But it's nice to dream.
Guam
March 07, 2022 at 10:10 am
Yeah, I am with you on this one 13TC. I think all of the deals mentioned are pipe dreams. I don't see a team that feels it is one QB away from a title run giving up young, ascending players - it just defeats their purpose of making the trade. I think draft choices only are much more likely.
And then we get to Rodgers' age. I think 2-3 picks for a 38/39 year old future HOF QB will be a good haul for the Packers. Maybe a bidding war allows the Packers to get more, but I would be surprised.
Hematite
March 07, 2022 at 11:39 am
I think that a lot of football writers and Packers fans are way overestimating Rodgers worth and what he will bring in a trade!!
Coldworld
March 07, 2022 at 10:02 am
If Rodgers decided to seek a trade, what we get for him is secondary. It does seem a little odd to assume a team bidding for him will give up significant established non QB talent. Picks are much more likely, some not this year. Additionally, If we are running with a new QB, we likely want the ability to find upcoming talent to grow with him. That would fit well with the increasing cap profile we will experience as ours starts to free up in the next year or two and TV revenue starts to expand the cap as well.
crayzpackfan
March 07, 2022 at 02:50 pm
13
I agree. I don’t see someone including a starting player in a trade. I’ll just use Denver for example. I see us getting 9 and 41 this year and then something like next years 2nd and a 3rd or 4th. If lucky, we could get next years one. Other teams are unique because they don’t have higher first rounders this year, so we might get extra lower round picks over 2 years. Anyway, I’m probably wrong. My wife always says I am.
Johnblood27
March 07, 2022 at 06:18 pm
She is right...
13TimeChamps
March 07, 2022 at 09:27 am
I know I'm very much in the minority on this but:
I just don't see any of these 3 high draft picks PLUS 2 players type of compensation for a soon to be 39 yo QB with a not insignificant injury history and mediocre playoff resume over the past 12 years. Give me Denver's #9 and Noah Fant and move on with the next era of Green Bay Packer football.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 07, 2022 at 09:38 am
The draft is so hit and miss even with a top ten pick. Therefore, getting established rising young stars still on their rookie contract has more value IMO than draft choices. Conversely, why teams may be more reluctant to give them up.
Love some of the players mentioned such as Simmons (who I wanted in the draft because he was injured and fell and Packers could have made a move for, which is just like the Jameson William's situation), and Noah Fant.
Hematite
March 07, 2022 at 11:42 am
A hundred thumbs up to you sir👍
Pilprin
March 07, 2022 at 09:32 am
Denver has 2 - 2's and 2 - 3's this year...They can offer #9, 40, and 96 this year and still have 2 day 2 picks. That is why in a bidding war...this could work. Jeudy is the only player I'd like back, but would take Lock as well if Denver wants to unload him.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 07, 2022 at 09:44 am
If Rodgers is traded should the Packers some way be able to bring Lock who is young and ascending it would be huge. While I know many only read negative internet reports about Lock he at a minimum would provide solid stability at the back-up QB position. The Packers need a viable back-up QB should Rodgers leave and I guarantee Gutey would make some move to bring in a QB, so why not a fourth year 25 year old 2nd round draft choice with a strong arm and potential?
barutanseijin
March 07, 2022 at 03:06 pm
I haven’t read anything about Lock, but having seen a couple Denver games, Love looks better than Lock. Lock could be a backup.
snowdog
March 07, 2022 at 09:32 pm
Was that the description of Jordon Love?
snowdog
March 07, 2022 at 09:52 pm
Isn't that the description of Jordon Love
marpag1
March 07, 2022 at 10:30 am
I would be happy to take advantage of any team that was desperate enough to make any of these offers.
jhtobias
March 07, 2022 at 11:01 am
If Traded no amount of compensation is fair for the back to back mvp. The other option is he retires or plays out his one year contract and you get nothing but cap space in return.
Packers have to way the options.
beerandbrats
March 07, 2022 at 11:35 am
The Packers have an opportunity here. It's time to turn the page and move on!
Hematite
March 07, 2022 at 11:45 am
👍
HarryHodag
March 07, 2022 at 12:01 pm
Here's a thought: why would Rodgers sell his palace in LA to then build a home in Nashville? Nashville is a cool city, but do you make your off-season home there? Maybe it will be his year round home?
NashvilleCheesehead
March 07, 2022 at 03:33 pm
The area where his is building is full of non-Nashville pro athletes. And he would join legions of Californians moving here. Not many here think he’s coming here.
Oppy
March 07, 2022 at 09:40 pm
Rodgers dabbles in music production as well.
Could be post-football positioning.
Plus, Nashville is a favorable location for a lot of people.
LambeauPlain
March 07, 2022 at 12:24 pm
Denver seems the most likely to lure Rodgers away and has more ammo than TN or Pittsburg.
But as usual, Rodgers will decide which cascade of events he will ignite.
croatpackfan
March 07, 2022 at 12:57 pm
Aaaah, I believe, in trade Packers will get what Packers GM already agreed, if he made decision already. But who knows, maybe Packers GM can not decide where to play next season, because he is torn in half (in thrids, or in quarters?).
We should be patient to get his God like announcement where he will be next season and why...
If somebody else would negotiating trade, for example the one who is supposed to be GM, than Packers might have some "profit" from the trade...
And do not dream about WRs. They are "Dosen and Dime". It is much harder to find good TE, Safety, DL, or LB (OLB/ILB). That is what I would look for trade capital if "customer" do not have other currency (draft picks).
Esquetoi
March 07, 2022 at 02:36 pm
I have a long lost Croat friend....but he's not even a sports fan much less a Packer fan.
BruceC1960
March 07, 2022 at 04:00 pm
Don’t you need 2 teams to be interested in Rodgers to get maximum value? Why would any team offer an attractive package if it is known 12 doesn’t want to go back to Green Bay? Kind of seems like you need Denver, Pittsburgh and Tenn to bid against each other.
Oppy
March 07, 2022 at 09:47 pm
Because it doesn't matter if Rodgers doesn't want to go back to Green Bay.
If a team wants Rodgers, they want to trade to get him. If Rodgers decides to retire because he doesn't want to come back to play for Green Bay, Rodgers can't play anywhere in 2022 because the Packers have his contract.
Unless a team that wants Rodgers is willing to wait an entire year and thinks they have as good a chance to land a one-year older, one-year rusty, might not even want to come out of retirement Rodgers who is a wide-open unrestricted free agent in 2023, they need to make Green Bay an offer that satisfies both the Packers and Rodgers.
Note, I agree you need two competitors to get "max value". But I don't see Rodgers' desire to play for Green Bay or not being a real factor in dissuading a team who wants his services from making legitimate offers.
BruceC1960
March 07, 2022 at 11:03 pm
My point is, why would Denver give up two 1’s two 2’s and possibly players if Green Bay doesn’t have any other options other than an unhappy 12 coming back to the Packers?
HankScorpio
March 07, 2022 at 11:11 pm
There are always teams looking for QBs.
BirdDogUni
March 08, 2022 at 12:27 am
*Because it's the only way Denver and Hackett will get him, that's why. Pay the price or roll with Lock or a Drafted QB. Or trade for Watson...
PatrickGB
March 07, 2022 at 09:20 pm
Is Herschel Walker available?
HankScorpio
March 07, 2022 at 11:09 pm
If you're looking for a team that has the ammo to go big and was dragged down by shaky QB play in 2021, I present Den and Philly in a two-horse race with the rest of the pack way behind.
Surtain, Jeudy and all of Denver's day 1 & 2 picks. Fant would be ok alternative to either player. Philly has 3 1s. Both teams still have a very solid core intact after they back up the truck for Rodgers.
Other teams that might be willing to push a lot of chips on the table might be Indy, TB, Vegas, Miami. None seem to have the right mix of 2022 picks and young talent to outbid a motivated Den or Philly offer. Miami has been loading up on draft picks for a few years. Lots of guys on rookie deals. Maybe they could get competitive in a bidding war.
Maybe I'm dreaming too big. But the 2-time MVP has never been traded before. So who knows?
BirdDogUni
March 08, 2022 at 12:25 am
4 time MVP... Just saying... ; )