Wait-and-see mode could lead to meaningful late spring discount
By dnicholson
There’s no mistaking the fact that the majority of Ted Thompson’s big-name free agency signings have historically come before the draft. That trend could well continue in 2017, but conditions also seem ripe for additional signings to come after the draft.
Inarguably the best free agent acquisition during Thompson’s tenure was Charles Woodson, who came aboard in late April 2006 and signed the dotted line officially May 1. Woodson went on to resurrect his career, the years in Green Bay most telling in giving him marquee status as a future Hall of Famer.
The rest of Thompson’s most notable acquisitions all took place in March. Defensive tackle Ryan Pickett signed before Woodson in March of 2006; Julius Peppers signed in March ’14; Letroy Guion and Jared Cook also joined the Pack in those first few weeks of free agency. Same thing as Martellus Bennett this year, as well as Davon House, Ricky Jean Francois and Lance Kendricks.
As historical precedent would indicate, most of the free agency action is likely over. The draft is another four weeks away (April 27-29), and the prediction here is another signing would only come after the draft dust settles.
The Packers’ approach is cause for frustration for many fans. The narrative this offseason has been informed less on Green Bay’s perceived willingness to go get players and more by letting good players go. Notably gone are T.J. Lang, Eddie Lacy, Micah Hyde, Julius Peppers and Datone Jones. Two of those players are former first-round picks, and half of them will suit up for rivals next season.
At the same time, Thompson was thrifty in his decisions — and roster holes notwithstanding — he’s set the Packers up for future contracts for players like Davante Adams and Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, and we know that Aaron Rodgers commands and will soon receive a higher-paying extension.
This approach ruffles feathers, but the other side of the coin reeks of desperation. Look at some of the contracts doled out this offseason.
NFC North rival Chicago signed former Pittsburgh receiver Markus Wheaton to a two-year, $11 million-dollar deal with $6 million guaranteed. They also brought along blocking tight end Dion Sims, formerly a Dolphin, on a three-year, $18 million contract. Meanwhile, Green Bay signed Bennett — a vastly superior player to Sims — on a three-year, $21 million deal.
The Rams gave Robert Woods $15 million guaranteed on a five-year, $39 million contract. Think about that.
Carolina signed dumpster fire Matt Kalil to a five-year, $55.5 million deal with $25 million guaranteed.
Green Bay is consistently wise to avoid those kinds of bloated contracts. By playing the waiting game they might end up pursuing the remaining free agency pool at a discount.
Here are some players (cough… linebackers …) who could make sense for the Packers:
DeAndre Levy, LB – Plagued by injuries the past two seasons, Levy was a force a Lions defense in 2014 that was among the league’s best (and one that came seemingly out of nowhere). If Levy can regain prior form, a question hard to answer and indicative of his continued free agent status, he’d be a welcome addition to a group of inside linebackers without much experience.
Zach Brown, LB – Unlike Levy, Brown is coming off a standout season. He was a Pro Bowler for the Bills in 2016 and would be an instant upgrade over the likes of Blake Martinez, Jake Ryan and Joe Thomas. The big question is how much money he will command. The longer he stays on the market, one has to think, is better for teams like Green Bay who won’t overpay.
**Update: About an hour before this was set to publish, word came in that Brown was signed with Washington. Oh well.
Devin Taylor, DE/OLB – With losing Peppers and Datone Jones, the Packers are missing an elephant in the room. Taylor, another former Lion, is huge – 6-foot-7, 275 pounds. For a big man, he moves pretty well. In Taylor the Packers would be adding another guy to rotate, and that’s exactly what the roster calls for at the moment.
Mario Williams, OLB – I’m not getting off this train yet. When the draft comes and goes and Williams is still a free agent, I would have zero qualms about the Packers offering an incentive-laden one- or two-year-deal to the former No. 1 overall pick. Williams was terrible last season for Miami, but he was also playing on a tweaked ankle all season. His down year in 2015, his last season with Buffalo, can at least be partially attributed to butting heads with the coaching staff because of being asked to drop into coverage rather than work as a pass-rush specialist. The year prior, Williams was a monster and an all-pro. If the big man wants a chance at redemption, and takes the money the market will likely offer, why not take a flier?
Comments (23)
MDPacker4ever
April 03, 2017 at 04:10 pm
Ted Thompson is terrible. Here we had a chance to add speed something clearly lacking to the middle of this defense. And he blows it yet again. Brown was a perfect fit for the D. I remember wanting us to draft him when he came out. He had coverage and tackling ability. Mark my words, As bad as it hurts to say it We will not win another Super Bowl until TT is outta here. He has held the team back more than anyone else. He addresses negatives in the roster 2 yrs too late by always trying to place bargain chip players as starters. They were undrafted for a reason Ted. You are not the smartest GM ever. From the 5'11" CB strategy, to drafting a TE that ran a 4.8, to picking players for one position and then trying to make them hybrid with our 1st rd picks (EX. Datone JOnes, Randall). This guy is totally lost.
NickPerry
April 03, 2017 at 04:52 pm
But, but, but...He signed Charles Woodson and drafted Aaron Rodgers!!!!
lebowski
April 03, 2017 at 10:28 pm
okay that made me laugh
Dzehren
April 03, 2017 at 08:30 pm
As far as Brown goes- TT does not value ILB or OG. This is not a news flash
NickPerry
April 04, 2017 at 06:11 am
I do understand your frustration with Ted Thomson, but he's not "Terrible". It's been my opinion for a long time Thompson is the best "Cap Manager" in the NFL. He does a excellent job looking ahead not just at this season but 2 or 3 years down the line. It's HERE where I think fans like yourself, myself, and many others get terribly frustrated with TT. With eyes to the future so far, it seems he we never have those few players he may have been able to sign to help us win THIS year.
It takes Thompson years at times to replace a player like Collins, Bishop, Finley, Grant, or Jenkins instead putting the Packers hopes in McMillian or Jennings, DJ Smith or Brad Jones, Bostick or Quarless, and others. Grant was hurt week one in 2010 and Ted had a chance to add Lynch but didn't. I know they still won a SB that year but what might have happened had they had him the following years?? Christ could you IMAGINE Lynch running behind Lang and Sitton?? There's also the tidbit when Ted does add a FA it normally pays off in spades. Look what Peppers and even Guion did for the 2014 team. Or Woodson and Pickett did for 2010's team. Had Ted been more active in those years between 2006 and 2013 who knows what might have happened and it's THERE where I agree. This year COULD possibly be TT last as GM in GB. Yes he has a contract through 2018, but it's some people's theory Wolf is already more involved in Free Agency this season. I guess it's possible TT changed his spots after 12 seasons but IMO I believe Wolf is a bigger part of the process. Ted will handle the draft this year and next and then ride off into the sunset, hopefully with one or two more Lombardis.
jdrum21
April 04, 2017 at 10:39 am
I don't understand why people continually gripe about the same things with TT. Not aggressive enough in free agency for you? Well maybe you should try being a Browns fan. They sign lots of players. Sure works out for them. Is TT a terrible drafter? Well he must be, it's the only way I can possibly explain; Rodgers, Nelson, Clinton-Dix, an All-Pro and a Pro-Bowl guard in the 4th round, Mike Daniels in the 4th... Yeah his track record is awful. The only TT move I have a real distaste over is his decision to not extend Casey Hayward for 3.5 per year, yet everyone still gripes over his draft classes and his lack of FA signings. 2014 aside... I just don't get it.
Kevin McDonnell
April 03, 2017 at 04:51 pm
We'll see how "terrible" Ted Thompson is when he drafts two killer pass rushers and cornerbacks in this year's draft plus a killer guard and running back that can contribute right away... I thinking either Gareon Conley or TJ Watt in Round #1...
pooch
April 03, 2017 at 05:09 pm
What have you been smoking
Bert
April 03, 2017 at 05:32 pm
I think this is meant to be sarcasm. I hope.
MITM
April 03, 2017 at 05:03 pm
Zach Browns a Redskin pending a physical
stockholder
April 03, 2017 at 06:37 pm
PASS on all!
MITM
April 03, 2017 at 06:38 pm
Packers claimed Ego Ferguson off waivers from the Bears. I feel like he has given us problems in the past was interesting to see that the Bears let him go. More depth, young veteran.
stockholder
April 03, 2017 at 06:53 pm
I remember a few packer writers very high on him. Thought he'd be the next mean joe Greene. I like it. It opens the door for a offensive player to be drafted.
lebowski
April 03, 2017 at 10:30 pm
I read two quick blurbs about that pickup, one had him listed as 6'-2" 300 lbs and the other at 6'-3" and 315 lbs. I'd be happier with the latter, this line needs beef.
TKWorldWide
April 04, 2017 at 06:06 am
I read 6'-2.5" and 308 lbs.
MarkinMadison
April 04, 2017 at 08:28 am
LOL
MarkinMadison
April 04, 2017 at 08:29 am
If they are using the same stick and scale that they used on Greg Jennings then he is probably 5'11" and 270.
Lphill
April 03, 2017 at 07:37 pm
Ferguson only started his junior year , maybe he came out too soon and needs more time to develop , a change of scenery and playing for a contender may pay off for him .
Dzehren
April 03, 2017 at 08:36 pm
GB personnel department is talking to TT or Rodgers comments are ringing true.
Ego is another great low risk FA signing. Competition and camp body- potential rotational player. We can focus on true roster needs
Sean Nelson
April 03, 2017 at 08:36 pm
All you guys complaining about Ted are FUNNY!!! NONE of you could do his job as well as he does. If you tried you would end up looking like the fat guy in the green cape trying out for the Eagles in the movie Invincible.
MITM
April 04, 2017 at 04:45 am
It goes both ways. You agreeing with the way he does things is just as blind then as the people that complain about the way he does things. You couldnt do his job any better than someone who dislikes the way he does business.
TKWorldWide
April 04, 2017 at 06:08 am
I'm not fat.
Spock
April 05, 2017 at 10:52 am
Well, someone has to say it: Who said TT doesn't have an Ego? :)