The Green Bay Packers worked hard to achieve home field advantage throughout the conference playoffs.  Even without a full stadium of fans, the players and coaches are convinced the cold weather and the familiar surroundings gives them a distinct advantage over any visitors.  This is especially true when the visitor is a warm weather team, such as the Los Angeles Rams, who will visit Lambeau Field for the divisional playoff contest Saturday afternoon. 

But is the cold weather advantage really true?  Or is it more myth than fact?  Is it really easier for Packers players to function in the cold than for visiting players who have been living in a warmer climate?  Certainly, over the years, the record shows the Packers have been tougher to beat in December.  Pinning down the exact reasons for that is a little tricky.  Did the weather have something to do with it, or is it just that the Packers have had good teams that bear down in the final month of the regular season? 

Green Bay's record in home playoff games since 2001 is not all that great.  They are just 6-5.  Two of those defeats came at the hands of the warm weather San Francisco 49ers and Atlanta Falcons.  However, the Packers have won the last three, and four of the last five.  Two of those victories were over warm weather Dallas and dome team Minnesota.  The Minnesota win is probably not relevant because those players still live in a cold climate, even if they don't play in one. 

In the 2020 regular season just completed, there were eleven games in the months of December and January where a warm weather and/or dome team had to play in an outdoor, cold weather stadium.  The warm weather teams had a record of 3-8 in those games.  No doubt, some of that was due to the host team simply being better.  For example, the Baltimore Ravens beating Dallas 34-17.  The Ravens likely would have won that game regardless of the weather. 

But there are a few other final scores that catch your eye.  On December 13th the Houston Texans, a southern dome team, traveled to chilly Chicago and lost to the Bears 36-7.  On the same day, the New Orleans Saints were heavily favored at troubled Philadelphia, but wound up getting upset 24-21.  On December 27, the Tennessee Titans certainly looked like they didn't want to be at Lambeau Field in the cold and snow as they were drubbed by the Packers 40-14.  On January 3, the Miami Dolphins visited Buffalo and were trampled 56-26.  In the Wild Card playoffs this past weekend, dome team Indianapolis lost at Buffalo 27-24, while Tampa Bay struggled mightily, despite being heavily favored, in a win over the 7-9 Washington Football Team. 

There is no telling how much, if anything, the elements might have had to do with those games, but the results do seem to support the idea that the cold weather advantage is real. 

As for the Packers' Saturday opponent, the Rams, there is not much of a track record as to how well they play in cold locales in December, mostly because they are in the NFC West with other warm weather teams (I am not considering Seattle to be among the colder sites).  On December 9, 2018 the Rams, with a record of 11-1 and on their way to the Super Bowl, traveled to Chicago where they were upset by the Bears 15-6.  On December 4 of 2016, the Rams were defeated in the cold by the New England Patriots in Foxboro 26-10.  However, that was a bad Rams team which finished 4-12. 

In a 2015 article for packersnews.com, Pete Dougherty points out medical studies that suggest it takes the human body ten days to a month to adapt to cold temperatures.  The body has to learn to heat itself more efficiently, and that takes time.  In other words, the bodies of Packers players, who have been living and sometimes practicing outdoors in Green Bay's cold climate, will literally keep them warmer than the bodies of visiting players who have been living in warm weather.  So it is credible when we hear Green Bay players claim that they are "used to playing in the cold". 

Safety Adrian Amos says he hears players from visiting teams complaining about the cold during games.  “It’s not even just warm weather teams.  Any team, you know, Chicago comes up here and receivers say it’s too cold.  Teams from all over.  Anybody who comes here to Lambeau, they notice a different chill in the air.” 

Ah, yes....a different chill.  There is cold, and then there is Lambeau cold.  Any of you who have sat in the stands at Lambeau in December or January know the cold is real.  It goes through you to the bone.  When I was covering Packer games, we always had to bring an extra camera.  We stored it in the locker room until the game was over.  You couldn’t use your field camera for locker room interviews because the lens would immediately fog up.  Wiping it off was futile because it would just recondense and fog up again.  It was frozen.  

All of that being said, as of this writing, the weather isn’t expected to be all that cold for the game, at least not by Lambeau standards.  The forecast calls for temps in the lower 30’s to upper 20’s, with a chance of light snow or rain showers.  Asked if he was disappointed the temps won’t be lower, Aaron Rodgers responded “I would caution anyone looking at the weather.  Things change very quickly in Green Bay.” 

Whatever the cold weather advantage may be for the Packers on Saturday, the players are not counting on it.  Center Corey Linsley hit the nail on the head on Tuesday when asked about the Rams:  "These guys are coming to play.  It doesn't matter where it is." 

OUTTAKES

•  Rick Gosselin's annual ranking of NFL special teams performance for the 2020 regular season is out.  First, the bad news:  the Packers special teams are ranked 29th.

•  The good news:  one of the three teams ranked lower than Green Bay is Saturday's opponent, the Rams, ranked 30th.

•  Am I the only one whose heart goes up into his throat whenever I see an opposing kick returner decide to run back a Packers kick-off?

•  I believe the stars of this game, Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, etc. are going to more or less cancel each other out.  Someone you don't expect is going to come up big and be the difference.  Someone like Allen Lazard or MVS or AJ Dillon.  Maybe Kevin King will actually come up with an interception.

•  No one should be a bit surprised that Aaron Rodgers is a trivia buff to the point where he has appeared on Jeopardy and won, and now will guest host in the off season.  Every time I listen to his interviews, I am amazed at his ability to recall specifics and minutia from virtually every game he's ever played, and every guy he's played with.  He is obviously gifted in terms of memory.

•  When Robert Tonyan and Dominique Dafney are on the field at the same time, it means both of the Packers' tight ends were produced by tiny Indiana State.  What are the odds?