The Green Bay Packers must improve their red zone offense in 2023

The #FreeAaronJones movement is back in action. 

Without star wide receiver Davante Adams as WR1, the Green Bay Packers encountered significant offensive challenges in 2022, culminating in a 14th-place finish in points per game (21.8 points per game) and a 17th-place finish in total offense (337.9 yards per game). These difficulties were compounded by quarterback Aaron Rodgers playing a substantial portion of the season with a broken thumb. Notably, the team's struggles within the red zone contributed to their offensive ineffectiveness throughout the season. They finished 23rd in red zone touchdown percentage (51.85%), and according to Warren Sharp, the offense produced a 50% touchdown rate on goal-to-go situations, dead last in the NFL. 

“There is a lot we have to study this offseason. Whether it was poor play design, or lack of execution or all of the above, it wasn’t good enough. We did a piss poor job in the red zone,” head coach Matt LaFleur said. “I’ve said it before, sometimes you kick enough field goals, and you’ll get yourself beat.”

One of the potential reasons why they struggled in the red zone was because of a lack of standout red zone target. In 2020, Adams led all NFL receiving options in red zone targets and receptions inside the 20 (28/23) and inside the 10 (20/17). Of those receptions, 13 went for a touchdown, a figure that was first in the league. In 2021, he was fourth in targets (28) and fifth (19) in receptions inside the 20 and third in targets (14) and receptions (10) inside the 10. He also added 10 red zone touchdowns. 

Last season, wide receiver Allen Lazard led the team in red zone targets inside the 20 with 17, good for 17th in the NFL, while Christian Watson chipped in 14 red zone targets inside the 20. Lazard had 10 targets (five receptions) inside the 10 and Watson had seven targets (four receptions). Altogether, Lazard and Watson paced the team with four receiving touchdowns apiece in the red zone, two fewer touchdowns than Davante contributed by himself in 2021. 

Watson will surely be leaned on more in creating separation both inside the 20 and inside the 10, given that Lazard took his talents to the New York Jets during the offseason. Another wide receiver that should see more action in the red zone is Romeo Doubs. While he only registered eight total targets in the red zone a season ago, he turned that into six receptions and three touchdowns. 

Another potential reason why the Packers did not convert in the red zone at a better clip in 2022 was due to of the lack of total touches for Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. In 2021, Dillon carried the rock 41 times inside the red zone, and Jones was second on the team with 33. Those attempt figures ranked 12th and 19th, respectfully, in the NFL. However, Jones and Dillon had 29 and 27 rushing attempts, respectively, inside the red zone in 2022, which ranked 25th and 27th, respectively, in the NFL. Those numbers are criminal. For reference, Jamaal Williams, who was the lead back in Detroit last season and is now with the New Orleans Saints, ran the ball 57 times inside the red zone.

Moreover, Jones was only targeted nine times (nine receptions) in the red zone last season, and Dillon was practically non-existent in the passing game in the red zone, only registering four targets (two receptions). 

As you read about the forthcoming number of times that Jones carried the ball inside the 10 last season, it is best to have a barf bag nearby because the data is disgusting. The UTEP product carried the ball nine (!) times, tied with quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence and Lamar Jackson and running back Breece Hall, compared to 16 times in 2021. Mind you, Hall only played in seven games last season; Jackson played in 12 games; and Lawrence is almost exclusively a pocket passer.

Were Jones’ 2022 numbers inside the five any better? Nope. He only had his number called twice. In fact, Rodgers had more rushing attempts (4) than Jones inside the five. 

Based on Jones' aforementioned figures, it looks like the #FreeAaronJones movement is back in action, so let’s hope LaFleur rights that wrong in 2023. It is one of the ways that the offense can get back on track in the red zone this season. 

 

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__________________________

Rex is a lifelong Packers fan but was sick of the cold, so he moved to the heart of Cowboys country. Follow him on Twitter (@Sheild92) and Instagram (@rex.sheild). 

__________________________

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10 points
 

Comments (83)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
TKWorldWide's picture

June 05, 2023 at 12:07 pm

Maybe a single dominant receiver does NOT help in the red zone. Maybe with a bunch of “good” receivers, just spread them out and pick the matchup.

Inside the 5, GB does not have the road grading O-line to just mash straight ahead. So, keep Jones and Dillon going but don’t forget a little misdirection.

17 points
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Since'61's picture

June 05, 2023 at 12:22 pm

Agree TK. Utilizing a lead blocker, such as Deguara, wouldn't hurt either. Thanks, Since '61

7 points
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Coldworld's picture

June 05, 2023 at 01:39 pm

No single weapon helps a red zone offense. There’s nothing worse than predictably in a tight area. Having speed helps, having size helps. Watson, Musgrave, Kraft all bring size with mobility. Doubs, Toure and probably Reed add elusiveness/suddenness and body control to make a large catch radius. That’s a start.

A range of threats through the air out of any formation automatically prevents a D from committing to the run, inside or out. Add in a hopefully significantly reduced propensity to run out of the shotgun and the running threat should be more effective. That opens up the opportunity to have a lead blocker, Deguara, Kraft or 6th OL. Add in no huddle and varied snap counts and defenses are less likely to be so well set. We might even run the QB or, perish the thought, try a sneak.

The above all make the O Line’s tasks exponentially easier. The O should have an advantage. It knows the play. All too often, defenses have been looking like they did too, or at least could guess the options pretty effectively. Undo that, and our O Line will be better simply for that.

Put those things together and I can’t see how any QB shouldn’t be better set up to do better than we have the last two years. That is, as long as LaFleur is competent enough to actually utilize the above and other wrinkles. That’s not to say Rodgers was the problem, but the offense he was part of in those situations had become one. If it was not Rodgers’ predilections to a significant extent, LaFleur is going to be a thing of the past very soon.

7 points
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T7Steve's picture

June 05, 2023 at 02:20 pm

" If it was not Rodgers’ predilections to a significant extent".

He was almost 40 years old! How much of a threat was he to a defense, even if he rolled out? It almost worked in his favor a couple times because he just ambled in when no one was paying him any attention.

The QB threat is a BIG part of goal line O.

5 points
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Tundraboy's picture

June 05, 2023 at 06:21 pm

"No single weapon helps a red zone offense. There’s nothing worse than predictably in a tight area."

Exactly. Combine that with as someone else pointed out, a lack of a road grading OL, it's just makes it almost Impossible. As we have seen, it works in the regular season at times but in the big games, trying to force the issue with that one star never succeeds anymore. The league figured that out in us a loooong time ago.

4 points
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mnbadger's picture

June 05, 2023 at 12:14 pm

Something tells me QB1.2023 will have different priorities (team touchdowns being more important than passing touchdowns) than the previous inhabitant of the position.
We can tearfully say goodbye to MVP QB1 while at the same time rejoice in the fact that opposing defenses will have to play the entire field and prepare for run or pass, no matter where the line of scrimmage is.
GPG!

13 points
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T7Steve's picture

June 05, 2023 at 12:22 pm

Add, "a more dangerous (at least foot wise) QB1, 2023."

Doesn't that alone give an opposing D much more to defend?

3 points
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Guam's picture

June 05, 2023 at 04:22 pm

"opposing defenses will have to play the entire field"

I was laughing this weekend as I was watching a USFL football game. The Birmingham Stallions QB was carving up the opposing defense both in the red zone and throughout most of the field. He was completing pass after pass to a TE in the middle of the field and the other team (which had a winning record and a supposedly decent defense) couldn't stop them. The announcer was extoling the virtues of this TE and claimed he had a bright future in the NFL.

The TE's name - Jace Sternberger.

Now, is the USFL that bad or did the Packers misuse (or not use) this guy where he could make a difference - like the middle of the field? I suspect the USFL is not great, but the middle of the field is where good TEs should make their living. I would like to see some of that this year from the Packers.

4 points
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Oppy's picture

June 05, 2023 at 07:22 pm

Yes, the talent gap between the USFL and the NFL is great.

Sternberger also had a great deal of raw talent, but by most accounts, Jace squandered his time with the Packers and the Packers cut bait.

He was apparently more concerned with the smokey smokey than committing to practice, or at least, that's the rumor.

My guess is being out of the NFL was a wake up call for him and he's now getting the double edged effect of matured attitude towards being a professional football player, while at the same time operating against inferior talent.

3 points
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T7Steve's picture

June 05, 2023 at 12:19 pm

It all starts with the line. We know how the season started last year and it never progressed to a line typical of the Packers. Vet rest? Constant shuffling? This unit needs to be solid early in camp. If they get back to where they SHOULD be, and stay healthy, there will be no problems this season.

6 points
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PeteK's picture

June 06, 2023 at 07:48 am

We have some solid choices with experience especially on the right side, so an improvement is expected.

0 points
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1
Since'61's picture

June 05, 2023 at 12:19 pm

Two primary reasons for the poor red zone performance in 2022 was first and foremost poor performance by the Packers OL particularly in goal to goal situations.
Second reason was poor play calling specifically not enough attempts to run the ball into the end zone. Aaron Jones was just not effectively utilized n the red zone IMO.

For some reason the Packers rarely use a lead blocker on red zone rushing attempts and they also rarely if ever use a heavy formation including an extra OL for blocking down on the goal line.

No need to be fancy on that part of the field. Just line up heavy, knock the DL off the LOS and allow a lead blocker to take out the LB attempting to fill the hole. Quite frankly like much of the Packers performance as a team I can't identify a clear philosophy for Red Zone or goal line offense. The play calling and execution on that part of the field has been very frustrating to watch for a few seasons.

Rather than transparency or the "Illusion of complexity" I see the unnecessary "complexity of out thinking ourselves" when a simple play executed behind a physical OL will work fine. The Packers coaching staff has a tendency to make the game/plans/plays much more difficult than they need to be.

"Just run the damn play and let's get the hell outta here." That should be the philosophy on every goal line and short yardage play. Thanks, Since '61

15 points
15
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Leatherhead's picture

June 05, 2023 at 03:16 pm

So the offensive line blocked OK until it got in goal-to-go, and then they were poor? But we should have called more runs near the goal-line, despite the poor blocking? That would only make sense if you think that a poorly blocked run gave us a better chance of scoring than a Rodgers pass.

We had 27 passing TDs (11th in the league) and 12 rushing TDs (only 5 teams had fewer.) We scored 11 TDs from outside the redzone.

I have a play that's good for one yard. I'd share it with LaFleur if he asked. It's not tricky. It does involve people pushing the pile.

1 points
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3
Since'61's picture

June 05, 2023 at 06:37 pm

I didn't say that the OL blocked well until we got down to goal to goal. In fact the OL was not as effective during 2022 as they had been in previous seasons. Early in the year they played musical OLs and when they finally settled in they remained inconsistent at best and were a major factor in the offense's subpar performance last season. However the article was not about how the OL played before reaching the red zone so DUH I didn't include that my original post. I remained on the article's topic of OL play in the red zone and goal-to-goal.

I did say that they were poor in the red zone and goal line and that is why the team was not effective in the red zone last season. Your comment points out that the Packers had only 12 rushing TDs last season. That supports my point that Aaron Jones was not utilized appropriately in the red zone last season.

My other point was about the plays calls in the red zone. I would have preferred to see more running plays down on the goal line. However our OL was not physical enough to move the DL or push the pile on the goal line. Therefore the Packers chose to pass more often down there.

Regardless the Packers were ranked last in goal-to-goal opportunities. Maybe if the Packers ran the ball more often in those situations they would do better than ranking last in the league. That fact sums up the performance of the OL in goal-to goal better than anything I can say. As for your play, by all means send it on to the team. The Packers have nothing to lose at this point. Our alleged offensive genius HC obviously needs all the help he can get since he can't seem to come up with an effective goal to goal offense. Thanks, Since '61

3 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

June 05, 2023 at 07:21 pm

The play calling was a hot button. Lack of counter plays. I do not know if LaFleur knows a draw/trap scheme?
I hope Nicholls makes the first three RBs on the depth chart. He is fast to the gaps. Dillon must improve his footwork.

6 points
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Since'61's picture

June 05, 2023 at 08:05 pm

Agree! Thanks, Since '61

3 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

June 05, 2023 at 08:44 pm

Take care. Are you attending Yankee games this year?

2 points
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Since'61's picture

June 05, 2023 at 11:02 pm

Only 2 games so far this season. I hope to attend a few more games later in the season. Since the Covid crisis has ended and our daughter is back to regular performances at Lincoln Center and our son in law is back on site with his production consulting business for Broadway shows my wife and I have more baby sitting duties for our grand daughter.

It's just a matter of adjusting priorities. Family first! Thanks, Since '61

5 points
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CheesedDeadHead's picture

June 05, 2023 at 04:48 pm

"Two primary reasons for the poor red zone performance in 2022 was first and foremost poor performance by the Packers OL particularly in goal to goal situations.
Second reason was poor play calling specifically not enough attempts to run the ball into the end zone. Aaron Jones was just not effectively utilized n the red zone IMO. "

I have to respectfully disagree. I don't think it was an issue with the OL or running calls in the red zone, but it was mostly due to the routine/vanilla offense that the team was running all over. Every team knew that AR12 didn't like to throw to the middle of the field. That he would wind the clock down to 0.00001 seconds to hike the ball. That they were just as likely to run out of the shotgun as pass. They knew AR12 would never do a QB sneak or roll out and run. When the Packers are starting in their territory and they have 75-85 yards of playing surface they have some length of field advantage for their limited play calling, but as they move into the opposing teams territory and closer to the goal line the field shrinks considerably and any length to the field is gone, but the teams tendencies were the same. Since red zone performance is already tracked it seems like it's night and day between red zone and not red zone, but I would bet if the data was looked from the 20 to say the 40 you would see a gradient of efficiency with the worst performance close to the 20 yard line and decreasing as you go into the red zone. In a short field the defense can focus on the run as there is less chance anything will get completed in the air to the sides or in the short field. Every defense the Packers faced didn't have an 11th gear to jump into when they were defending in the Red Zone, they just had an easier time focusing on the run because the impotent throwing offense was much less of a concern. It appears like the OL was just not up to it, but I think the lack of creativity and the existing tendencies just hurt them much more with a short field.

3 points
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MainePackFan's picture

June 05, 2023 at 06:31 pm

All good points CDH, but at the end the day an OL has to impose their will in situations that everyone knows you are running the ball. Do that and your playbook opens up. They didn't, and until they do nothing will change.

4 points
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Since'61's picture

June 05, 2023 at 06:52 pm

Bingo Maine Pack Fan. Thanks, Since '61

3 points
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MainePackFan's picture

June 05, 2023 at 06:22 pm

You hit it on the nose Since'61. The OL was a major problem when it came to the running the ball on a 1st and goal inside the 10. Teams did not fear the physicality of our OL. Who can blame them when you run the ball twice from inside the 5 yard line on a 1st and goal and can't get 2 yards. Then we're left with AR dump offs or slants getting batted down at the LOS. Quite pathetically predictable unfortunately.

3 points
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Since'61's picture

June 05, 2023 at 06:54 pm

The fact that the Packers were dead last in the league in goal-to-goal situations sums it up about as well as it can be done. That is a direct reflection of the performance of the OL. Not much else left to say. Thanks, Since '61

5 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

June 05, 2023 at 07:35 pm

If you cannot move people running it, you have to pass the rock. The deep shots try to score points and make up ground. It doesn't pay to dink and dunk with the end result being a FG after being stuffed 3x in a row with the run. We've seen enough of those plays. Even the passing attack was somewhat predictable. More speed now at the WR spots. They really need to pick up the pace in all aspects of the attack.

2 points
3
1
Since'61's picture

June 05, 2023 at 08:15 pm

First they need better OL play. The Packers opponents are going to play to stop the run and force Love to beat them with the pass. If the Packers run game gets stuffed and Love is forced to pass and/or play from behind he will get clobbered with blitzes similar to what the Chiefs did to him in 2021.

MLF needs to have runs plays that will keep the defense off balance. If the Packers remain predictable as they have been for the last 2 seasons it's going to be a long first season for Love.

Speed with the new WRs is good but experience is lacking. Hopefully they will learn fast and improve as the season goes on.

Effective OL play makes everything better. It makes the run game effective and gives Love time to find receivers as they learn their routes. IMO the pressure is not on Love it's on the OL. Loves play will be the output of the effectiveness of the OL. Thanks, Since '61

4 points
5
1
jannes bjornson's picture

June 05, 2023 at 08:38 pm

I am not averse to Love tossing it on first down and spread the defense, Holmgren style. A big reason I wanted an OT in the 2022 draft out of round two for the RT. Alas, they went for Walker and had to burn both twos to secure Watson. Jones is not a bell cow guy. Can Bhaktiari still get out in front of people on these wide zone schemes? The entire right flank is a concern in my mind. See how Rhyan shows in Summer Session. They still miss some of Patrick's bad ass style, playing through the whistle. Will the whiff on Creed Humphrey haunt this team?

2 points
3
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Since'61's picture

June 06, 2023 at 08:23 am

I agree jannes, Plenty of questions about the OL for 2023. Thanks, Since '61

-1 points
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1
SicSemperTyrannis's picture

June 06, 2023 at 01:20 am

61, that's exactly what I've been saying the past few years. Just bring in our big guys on guard, give the ball to Quadzilla, and put a big guy pushing behind him too. Same with third and short, instead of hero ball. I think they have the talent to do this, but it does mean spreading the snaps out a bit.

Hopefully they come up with something that works

4 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

June 05, 2023 at 01:56 pm

The best thing MaLF can do for the Gold Zone, is to throw out our old tendencies. Go from totally predictable to unpredictable. TK makes an excellent point about picking the right matchup. Between RBs, WRs, and new TEs, we should have a plethora of options...

10 points
10
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T7Steve's picture

June 05, 2023 at 02:13 pm

Dictate to the defense and score touchdowns. Execute what we want. They can't stop it (well.at least for the Bears game).

2 points
2
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

June 05, 2023 at 06:32 pm

Good teams take whats given. Great teams take what they want. In 2019 and 2020, everyone knew Jones was getting the ball on the goalline and it didnt matter. They need to get back to that. No more getting cute. Let your best offensive player do what he does best i.e. punch it into the endzone. Its not a coincidence he went from 25 combined rushing tds in 2019 and 2020 to 6 combined rushing tds in 2021 and 2022 while also having a steep decline in goalline efficiency.

2 points
4
2
stockholder's picture

June 05, 2023 at 02:08 pm

Too many drops.
Poor play calling.
Hand-off exchange.
Terrible blocking.
Can't Blame Rodgers now.

-10 points
3
13
T7Steve's picture

June 05, 2023 at 02:31 pm

At least he won't be blaming his teammates in Green Bay now.

10 points
10
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Renllaw's picture

June 06, 2023 at 06:26 am

Too many erratic passes.
Poor plays changed at the LOS by QB12.
Only 1 Red Zone fumble by QB12 and RBs all season.
You may have something on the blocking.
Time to face reality

2 points
3
1
Charvid's picture

June 05, 2023 at 02:10 pm

I’m hoping 2 TE’s who are each north of 6’ 5” and 250 lbs who can separate in short distances will help too.

10 points
10
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TKWorldWide's picture

June 05, 2023 at 02:26 pm

Yes!!
With a bit of commitment to running 33 and 28 near the goal line, it’s easy to imagine either of those tight ends becoming the new Bubba Franks with a ton of wide open, play action touchdowns. The one and two yard variety. Giddy up!

8 points
9
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TKWorldWide's picture

June 05, 2023 at 04:57 pm

So, somebody out there is OPPOSED to wide open 2 yard TD tosses? Oh, okay. 🤦‍♂️

3 points
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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

June 06, 2023 at 01:27 am

I'm hoping TE will be able to handle at least simple plays like this, yes. Start simple, gain some confidence, and build out.

3 points
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freddisch's picture

June 05, 2023 at 03:06 pm

A major reason for being dead last in “ goal to go” situations is that the Oline is not good at run blocking

4 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

June 05, 2023 at 03:20 pm

Gun show!

3 points
3
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LeotisHarris's picture

June 05, 2023 at 03:38 pm

Good eye, TK. Winning individual battles at the point of attack one bicep at a time.

4 points
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

June 05, 2023 at 06:27 pm

Well theyve been put in crap situations. Theyve been rpo heavy around the goalline the last 2 years. That play only works when you have a qb whos a threat to run which keeps the defense honest. Otherwise they just crash the middle of the field which takes away the run and the pass option. This is why I absolutely despise the rpo play for this team. Its like handing the defense the advantage on a silver platter.

4 points
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Since'61's picture

June 06, 2023 at 08:22 am

That is a good point TBSH. I don't like RPOs down on the goal line either. Just line up the big guys, come up to the LOS and snap the ball.

I've always preferred quick hitters in short yardage and goal line. The Lombardi Packers were absolutely great with those plays. Thanks, Since '61

2 points
2
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PhantomII's picture

June 05, 2023 at 03:09 pm

It must be pretty tough to look at stats of the best teams and what they do and duplicate it to a degree…unless pride is involved. Let’s just say not running the play clock to zero will help a lot.

6 points
7
1
The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

June 05, 2023 at 06:25 pm

Every team does it. Its a copycat league. Somebody comes up with something new then everyone copies it.

2 points
2
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egbertsouse's picture

June 05, 2023 at 03:25 pm

Another fine article by Captain Obvious.

-1 points
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3
The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

June 05, 2023 at 06:24 pm

You're well within your rights to not read them.

2 points
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splitpea1's picture

June 05, 2023 at 03:40 pm

Cashing in deep in the red zone should be a point of emphasis this season. It starts with the coaching staff. Be more unpredictable and change the tape for starters! Find the right IOL combination that's going to get the job done. Use a jumbo formation if that's what it takes. Focus on having the RBs exploit the right crease. Use our new 1-2 punch at TE; Musgrave should be athletic enough to reach balls that defenders can't. Have Love roll out and sprint to the pylon if that's what's available....With so many new options, there's no excuse for not unlocking the red zone offense and getting a little more creative, and most importantly, productive.

9 points
9
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greengold's picture

June 05, 2023 at 04:51 pm

splitpea1, you’re speaking my language!

RELEASE THE MAULERS!

Bring in an extra OL. Make it hurt. Run the rock. We have all kinds of receiving options to exploit mismatches & mix it up.

3 points
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splitpea1's picture

June 05, 2023 at 05:44 pm

I'd like to see them work on a shovel pass play as well; either Jones can slice his way in or Degaura can slam it in. It's a relatively low-risk play that seems to work well for KC, so why not us? You don't have to be Mahomes to succeed here.

4 points
4
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greengold's picture

June 06, 2023 at 06:19 am

Exactly!

Remember the U-71? The “Uncle Erv?” Imagine a shovel pass behind that!!! We should be lining up the destroyer Caleb Jones next to Nijman or Bakhtiari in a heavy set and run behind that!

Very simple.

Gregg Easterbrook had this mantra: run all 3 downs from 1st & goal from the 10 and you score a TD 75% of the time.

Rodgers could never do that, because it would take that TD off his own stat line. Can’t win an MVP that way. Sheeesh! For more than a decade I felt he made the game more difficult than it needed to be.

1 points
2
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greengold's picture

June 06, 2023 at 09:21 am

sp1,
I have been looking all over for a very specific Gregg Easterbrook quote since about 4 pm yesterday on what we've been talking about, and I'm still searching...

BUT, I found this gem from one of his 2017 articles I thought you might dig:

"Sweet Play of the Week. Contest tied in the fourth quarter, Kansas City faced 2nd-and-5 on the Philadelphia 15. The Chiefs lined up with a slotback on each side of Alex Smith. At the snap, he faked to one, then faked to the other going the opposite way, then flipped a shovel pass straight ahead to tight end Travis Kelce, who had crossed beneath the line of scrimmage. Sweet touchdown, and the Chiefs never looked back."

LOL. Yup. Shovel pass...!!!

1 points
1
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greengold's picture

June 05, 2023 at 04:41 pm

The entire premise seems a little too cart before the horse to me. How about we just wait a little longer to see Matt LaFleur’s offense first, complete with a QB who will actually run it?

What the hell? We’ve waited 4 years. What’s another 3 months?

2 points
4
2
The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

June 05, 2023 at 06:23 pm

This is the article I've been waiting for. Remember the "gold zone" of 2019 and 2020 where the tds were nearly automatic? Jones had a combined 25 rushing tds those 2 years, most of which came in the red zone. But then the coup happened in 2021 and all that stopped. Jones has 6 rushing tds since. Sometimes the solutions are to just go backwards.

3 points
5
2
greengold's picture

June 06, 2023 at 06:29 am

Yes!!! Passhappy McDarkness couldn’t stand giving someone else “his” TD stat.

2 points
2
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LLCHESTY's picture

June 05, 2023 at 06:35 pm

For those of you that think the Packers should run a run-1st, ball control offense you might want to take a peek at this article(though some won't because they know better!🤪). Mainly:

"Consider the conditional probabilities at play. The average NFL series conversion rate is 72%, but if a team starts a drive on the 25-yard line, using the marching approach, teams would need to accumulate around six or seven first downs to reach the end zone. Without chunk plays, the probability chart below suggests that if a team accumulates first downs a few yards at a time, it will likely fail before reaching the end zone."

"Certainly, a better series conversion rate is important to scoring, but a high series conversion rate is not enough. For consistent offensive success, teams also need to generate explosive plays, as explosive play success is imperative to scoring points in today’s NFL."

Also consider the teams in the SB were 1st and 3rd in explosive play differential(the Bills were 2nd). The Eagles finished with a +49 in explosive play differential to lead the league, the Packers were 18th at -3.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-explosive-plays-and-re-thinking-offensive-s...

3 points
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1
TKWorldWide's picture

June 05, 2023 at 07:11 pm

When I was very young and Woody Hayes at Ohio State popularized the “3 yards and a cloud of dust” approach, I used to think, “Yeah, but then you end up punting on 4th and 1.”
Even as a kid, I could do the math.

6 points
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

June 05, 2023 at 07:15 pm

Whoever said anything about ball control? Since 2017, theres been at least 5 top-10 scoring offenses that featured run-first teams led by either Jared Goff or Jimmy G., all of whom had run heavy offenses. Running the ball opens up playaction which leads to chunk plays. Its not a coincidence the Packers best offensive game of the year last came vs the Cowboys when Rodgers threw his least number of passes (20) all season. They ran for over 200 yards and the playaction carved up Dallas' top 5 defense. Its about balance and influencing the defense.

8 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

June 05, 2023 at 10:23 pm

Five top 10 scoring offenses out of how many? And these days how many ball control teams have won a SB. Don't get me wrong, there are always outliers but do you want to bet on being the lone outlier that gets it done?

2 points
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

June 05, 2023 at 11:03 pm

What I left out was those 5 offenses were all Shanahan style offenses which there arent many in football. You have the 49ers with Kyle Shanahan, Rams with McVay, Packers with Lafleur, and Lions with Ben Johnson. And I only counted the 5 led by Goff or Jimmy G. Also worth noting, Lafleur was the OC for the 2017 Rams who were #1 scoring offense in football. The whole point is you dont need elite qb play to have an elite offense in the Shanahan system. And theres nothing "ball control" about it. These offenses attack defenses relentlessly. Body blow after body blow with the run and haymakers with the playaction. And you mentioned outliers. Seems to me depending on elite qb play to carry us to just 2 super bowls in 30 years are the outliers. Time to try a different approach. It would certainly give us a better chance in the freezing cold home playoff games we never seem to win anymore when elite defenses have just teed off on our punchless finesse pass game. Time to take the fight to the defense for a change and Lafleur has the offense to do it. Wouldnt you like to see blowout playoff wins where we only have to throw 10 times like whats been done to us? Here's our chance. But we'll never get there if we dont commit to it. And this is coming from an assumption that Love wont become elite. Its certainly in the realm of possibility that he can become an elite level player in this league. And one last thing, none of those offenses I mentioned previously had a player with the kind of freakish talent Christian Watson has. Once he gets going, this team will never see 8 man boxes. They'll be able to take whatever they want.

2 points
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Leatherhead's picture

June 05, 2023 at 08:02 pm

"teams need to generate explosive plays"........

Is there a difference between an explosive play on offense and a bad play on defense? IMO, when you start looking at big completions, it's that failure to tackle the guy after the catch that makes it a big play. So if we're talking about the same thing, we're in agreement.

I don't think big plays are because of design or superduper talent. I think they're more often the result of poor defensive play. Brady's TD on us just before the half in 2020 was an "explosive play" but it was also just some poor defense by one player in particular. Those are two sides to the same thing.

IMO, if the Packers Keep It Simple (KISS) and focus on getting the ball to their veterans...Dillon, Jones, Watson, and Doubs...about 45- 50 times a game (that's out of about 64 plays.....that we'll get our fair share of long plays.

Also.....

Wouldn't it be true that a good defensive design would try to limit chunk plays? And wouldn't encouraging teams to run instead of pass help do that?

1 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

June 05, 2023 at 10:41 pm

My god your dense. When it's called a DIFFERENTIAL it's the explosive plays your offenses accrued minus the explosive plays your defense gave up. The Packers wre -3 last year while the Eagles were +49. See the difference?

You told me a month ago an offensive coach can't plan for an explosive play. I'd agree, the ones that get quickly fired can't. Those that can find job security. With a guy like LaFleur he'd like to believe he can scheme his way into explosive plays. Like the article says(don't worry I know you didn't read it) having an explosive WR makes a big difference in having explosive plays. Like Mike Wahle said the other day on his podcast you can win if three of your guys are much better than three of theirs. But one of the three better be a QB.

After last year when you refused to believe 5 yards of field position on a punt return can make a serious difference in your chances to score you repeatedly say the same ignorant things. I could spend 20 minutes finding the facts again but it wouldn't correct your ignorance. If you actually looked at the article you'd see that drives with 5 1st downs had a 26% chance of scoring. Drives with two 1st downs and an explosive play? 52%

So keep contributing your nonsense, it isn't hurting me except to make wince once in awhile but those that actually take your comments as gospel do so at their own peril. Hopefully they don't gamble based on your suggestions. Yech 😮

3 points
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Leatherhead's picture

June 05, 2023 at 11:27 pm

I’m clearly much more dense than you. You’ve obviously read a lot about football.

2 points
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TxFred's picture

June 05, 2023 at 08:32 pm

The Pack OL will determine how the Pack will succeed this year. Timing with the backs hitting the holes. Power drive blocking & downfield blocking need precision & coordination. Pocket blocking & pass protection needs work especially from center to right tackle. Assistant OL coaches really need to develop & coach up teamwork. Going to decide how much thd team keeps possession & move the chains. Gold zone scoring is a must.

1 points
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Leatherhead's picture

June 05, 2023 at 08:53 pm

I think a good start to redzone production would be getting there more often. Most of our possessions do not reach the redzone, and if we could make even one more trip to the redzone every week, it would make a huge difference.

The Chiefs scored on 45% of their possessions, best in the NFL. The Packers were 16th...average....at 36%. Considering you get about 10 or 11 possessions, that's one more score each week.

1 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

June 05, 2023 at 10:50 pm

If only the Packers would have had a few more explosive plays hunh?

3 points
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Leatherhead's picture

June 06, 2023 at 09:27 am

Or first downs. I bet you can look up and read who had the most first downs last year. Pretty hard to have an explosive play when your offense isn't on the field.

I am glad, though, that you agree with Joe Barry that you should try to limit your opponent's explosive plays. Maybe someday you'll read something on that and agree with it.

1 points
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Moose51's picture

June 05, 2023 at 10:27 pm

One of last year’s major failures. Did not see LaFluer/Rodgers play calling adjust, but just keep doing the same thing. It seemed like the opposing Teams(especially the lowly Lions D) knew the plays that we were going to run. Painful to watch last Season’s games.

This year, hope we at least see a Team that can execute to their strengths and if not, make some adjustments.

4 points
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CanPackFan's picture

June 05, 2023 at 10:52 pm

As I read through all these good comments, I think everyone has it right - its a combination of a lot of things - OLine, predictable play calling, an aging QB with certain preferences, and the list goes on. I am most interested to see what MLF will identify as the biggest areas to attack - if not all. Steno still hasn't sold me as an OC and it should be him to rectify these issues.

Generally, I agree with Since61 that our OLine tends to get bullied a bit. And when it comes down to inside the 5, they just don't seem tough enough. Myers could be a tougher run blocker as could Bakh but Bakh has physical issues that prevent him from being better in that regard. A lead blocker might be just the ticket?

Whatever we all comment, its going to be an exciting year regardless. I am looking forward to new faces as well as new strategy. As always, GPG!

1 points
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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

June 06, 2023 at 01:43 am

One nice thing about Steno as OC is he should at least have something different and unpredictable. That may be all we need. When Bakh is healthy I see him dominate. If they can sort out C and the right side of the line a big leap in goal line efficiency should be very doable. I just don't see a lack of talent on this roster and think it's on the coaching staff to develop scheme and prepare some magic.

2 points
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Boneman's picture

June 06, 2023 at 06:31 am

The 'X' factor in todays NFL is the schemed ability for QB's to create and make plays in the red zone. Either run it themselves or buy time for separation. Old number 12 just couldn't do that anymore (not his fault) and the QB centric Pack had no other answers. This year I think they will get that playmaking from young Love and combined with a more open playbook and better skill position players we'll see improvement. The O-Line just needs to avoid penalties...

2 points
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HarryHodag's picture

June 06, 2023 at 07:20 am

I haven't read all comments but a glaring weakness was the lack of an effective tight end in the red zone. Both a blocker and a receiver, the tight end is perfectly positioned to find that gap in the defense. He can also be a key block if a run attempt is made. Is there any doubt why the Packers drafted two of them?

The best red zone offense is an unpredictable one. With a $50 million quarterback you can well believe opposing defenses knew they would throw the ball. While Rodgers did run a couple into the end zone, his mobility was less than it was years ago. That is why a mobile quarterback like Jordan Love also puts another wrinkle into the red zone attempt.

3 points
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Johnblood27's picture

June 06, 2023 at 07:30 am

How about this...

Run the damn ball!

Rushing TD's were down, attempts were down, confidence in the OL was down.

Move down the field with a mix of run and pass. Get to the Red Zone and throw it 3 times then watch #2 trot out.

That crap HAS TO STOP!

A team must show the willingness to run the ball in the red zone and NOT become one dimensional situationally. Besides the smaller field with which to work, the lack of diversity of attack the defense must account for can be a Red Zone killer.

Someone on the GBP offense got google eyes when the goal line was in sight and started focusing on getting another throwing TD for their stat line. Just focusing on getting 7 instead of 3 might be a nice difference this year. That and maybe having an OC more like Hackett and less like... who is the GB OC?... see what I mean? Having a QB who is an actual threat to take what is given and run the ball off a dissolving play might help as well. Throwaways in the red zone are great for keeping stats pretty and for avoiding a big loss, but a tuck and run now and then can help too.

Health on the OL, a bit more focus on the run game, some hungry receivers from all positions - WR, TE, RB - a QB who can make sound decisions and a HC needing to prove that he is what he was hired for should lead to more success in getting into the end zone.

1 points
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Coldworld's picture

June 06, 2023 at 07:57 am

If we are going to run on the goal line, then Myers and Runyon are going to have to be significantly better and we are going to need to be willing to adopt formations that suit pounding the ball. Our tendency for the shotgun did not help the line or the runner.

Injury to Nijman at the end if the season—he was the best rated T in terms of run block wins in the NFL over the season—may have confused some, but after the early issues with Newman Hanson and the return of Jenkins to LG (8th best run block percentage by a G last season) should make it clear that Myers/Runyon’s issues holding up were a major problem in the goal line run game.

That center right tandem has to be a lot better generally if our run game is to thrive, at the goal line or wherever. They not only have to open holes better, but they have to stop penetration on the fastest route to the hand off/ball carrier. Too often Myers and Runyon just get overpowered and pushed back on run plays.

0 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

June 06, 2023 at 08:43 am

I agree. And while Tom may get some snaps at RT, I don't think he will unseat Yosh.

I do see Tom with good odds to replace either Myers or Runyan. Both players are good in pass pro, but unfortunately both are very average to below average in run blocking.

The OL thrives on all 5 playing in unison, creating synergies where the sum is far greater that its parts. It is the position group on a football team where the most synergism exists, IMO. And the weakest link can greatly erode it.

I can envision Tom powering up both the run blocking (he's perfect for the zone...quick feet, great leverage, gets to his targets quickly) and pass pro. I think he makes Jenks better too.

Let Myers and Runyan battle for RG...maybe Rhyan makes a case there too.

2 points
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T7Steve's picture

June 06, 2023 at 09:06 am

I think the Ds favored that side to stay away from Jenkins, and Meyers inexperience hung them out to dry. Runyon did well on the left side so I think a little more time will help him on the right. Some competition for Meyers in TC might make him take the next step or put him on the bench.

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

June 06, 2023 at 10:23 am

Runyon has been good in pass pro, which did suffer a bit when he moved sides, but he’s never been more than borderline replacement level in the run game. That’s the issue with him. This year that could very well come to a head.

1 points
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Leatherhead's picture

June 06, 2023 at 09:30 am

Runyan is in the last year of his deal, and he'll be signed to a second deal by somebody, and when it's Myers turn, him too. These guys are both legitimate NFL starters.

1 points
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T7Steve's picture

June 06, 2023 at 09:34 am

One penalty in two seasons says it all for Runyan, in my book.

0 points
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greengold's picture

June 06, 2023 at 09:44 am

Yeah, but, Runyan's run blocking grades per PFF:

2022 53.6
2021 58.6
2020 55.8

ugh. Those are really poor numbers.

2 points
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T7Steve's picture

June 06, 2023 at 09:59 am

Second whole year starting and thrown to the other side mid-season. I think he's not hit his ceiling yet.

Except for Nijman and Jenkins' PFF, the whole line did poor run blocking as a group last year, and I don't give much credence to their #s because of that.

1 points
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greengold's picture

June 06, 2023 at 10:20 am

I can buy that, Steve! I've got not one damn thing against Jon Runyan either. I like him a lot. Just wish he were a better run blocker. And, you're right about the rest of the line. Cutting Bak some slack as he was returning from the knee and appendectomy. Myers needs to improve as well.

The Packers may be looking to turnover some of these positions, not making a secret that they're opening starting spots up for competition in TC/Preseason.

1 points
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T7Steve's picture

June 06, 2023 at 10:38 am

Yes. I want no established starters in camp. Competition will bring out the best results.

I believe part of the problem last season was "vet rest" because of injury rehab for the left side. They never seemed to have the same days off, so the line never really practiced together during the week. It "probably" didn't hurt the vets much, but it HAD to effect the other guys reactions to what happened during the games.

0 points
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