The Cap Suggests Moving On From Rodgers

When I think about Aaron Rodgers' future in Green Bay using words, I want to keep him, but not when I look at numbers.

Should he stay or should he go now

If he goes, there will be trouble

And if he stays it will be double.

Should Aaron Rodgers play quarterback for the Green Bay Packers in 2022?  I think the paraphrased lyrics from The Clash's song sums things up very well.  If Rodgers is traded and does well in the playoffs elsewhere while the Packers win just a handful of games with Love at quarterback, there will be some grumbling.  If he stays and the Packers stretch their cap for him and for 6 or 8 other current players, the trouble could be worse for Gute down the line. 

Of course, it remains to be seen whether Rodgers wants to return or play at all, but here, we will focus on whether the Packers should want him to return.  The salary cap troubles suggest that the answer should be no, at least when combined with the reality that now is a good time to trade Rodgers for significant returns.  Obviously, what the Packers can get for Rodgers is a component in this equation. 

A trade should result in cap savings of $19.82 million.  An extension could generate over $20 million in cap savings for 2022.  If the Packers and the trade partner were both willing to wait until June 2nd to execute the trade, the 2022 cap savings would be $27.49M.  There is no June designation language in the CBA for trades.  To trade Rodgers, he has to be on the roster through March 16 and his current $46.664M salary cap number probably has to count.  

My problem is that I cannot devise a contract extension for Rodgers that works for him and for the team.  Joel Cory's article suggests a four year extension at the market using a $75 million signing bonus.  The market might be $45M for each new year, so it would be 4 years for $180M in new money plus what Rodgers is scheduled to earn in 2022 ($27.49M) for a total of 5 years and $207.49M.  Here is what that might look like:

Yr Base HO SB Cap Dead Savings Cash
22 1.47M 19.17M 15M 36.66M     76.47M
23 12.0M 7.67M 15M 34.67M 67.67M (33M) 88.47M
24 32.0M   15M 47.0M 45.0M 2.0M 120.47M
25 43.0M   15M 58.0M 30.0M 28.0M 163.47M
26 44.0M   15M 59.0M 15.0M 44.0M 207.47M
  • What happens if the 2022 season goes badly?  Gute would be looking at $67.67M dead and perhaps an unhappy quarterback.
  • The Packers get just $10M in cap relief in 2022.  That is not enough: multiple players would be lost, making it more likely that 2022 does not go well.
  • If $47M in 2024 is a big number for a 41-year old, $58M and $59M are worse.
  • The Packers would have to convert some base to a signing bonus in 2024 or 2025.
  • This looks like a two-year deal ('22/'23) unless money were guaranteed in 2024.
  • The Packers would be "using" the signing bonus in lieu of cash paid each season to the tune of $26.02M in 2022, $33M in 2023, $13M in 2024, $2M in 2025 and $1M in 2026.  The Packers would have to agree not to request some or all of his signing bonus back should Rodgers decide to retire.  The amount would depend on when he retired.

That contract looks like a monstrosity to me.  I do not think a huge signing bonus upfront can be done because $10M in cap relief is not enough to retain even a few of the team's unrestricted and restricted free agents.  I discussed this in my Coping With The Cap article.      

What is the financial market for Rodgers?  Let’s look at the cash paid by year for other elite QBs: 

Top QBs By Cash Paid/AAV
Player SB/Yr AAV 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Mahomes $2M $45M $29.4M $40.45M $37.95M $41.95M $41.95M
Prescott $16.5M $40M $20M $31M $34M Void Void
Allen $11.8M $43M $4.60M $28.00M $30.00M $39.5M $38.5M
Watson $40.4M $42.4M $37.4M $32.0M UFA    
Wilson $13.0M $35.0M $24.0M $27.0M UFA    
Tannehill $5.0M $29.5M $29.0M $27.0M UFA    

This gets tricky because while these quarterbacks got big signing bonuses, some of that money was in lieu of first and second year base salaries.  Allen (and Mahomes) both got extensions after just three seasons, meaning their cheap 4th year and reasonably-priced 5th year options were bought out.  I have some questions as to whether Mahomes will actually earn $45M per year.  Allen looks more likely to earn something closer to his advertised average annual value.  It looks like Prescott will actually earn $40 million per year.  So, let's look at their cap hits in the table below.

 
Top QBs By Cap Number
Player 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Mahomes $35.8M $46.8M $44.3M $46.3M $41.95* $59.95M
Prescott $34.45M $45.45M $48.45M $14.45M    
Allen $16.37M $39.77M $41.77M $51.27M $46.98M $40.0M
Watson $40.4M $42.4M $37.4M $32.0M    
Tannehill $38.6M $36.6M $9.2M      
Wilson $37.0M $40.0M        

Prescott is a UFA in 2025 and as written his contract leaves Dallas with $14.45M in dead money.  His dead money number will increase when Dallas restructures Prescott to generate cap space in 2023 and probably 2024.  Ditto for Tannehill, who is scheduled to leave a $9.2M dead money hit in 2024.  2026 is a trigger year for Mahomes since if he is on the roster in 2026 a $49M roster bonus that pushes his cap number to almost $60M will become guaranteed for 2027.  15% of $400M equals $60M.

Russ Ball could devise a contract extension for Rodgers that provides similar cap savings to a pre-June trade.  A Damascene Conversion on Rodgers’ part would help: that is, a realization that winning super bowls probably requires that he not be amongst the highest paid quarterbacks in the NFL.  Here is a stab at a contract for Rodgers at $36.5M AAV:

YR Base SB Redo Option Cap Dead Save Cash
22 1.12M 19.173M 5.07M   25.408M   20.736M 26.47M
23 15.0M 7.67M 5.07M 4.0M 31.74M 47.74M   35.0M
24 36.0M   5.07M 4.0M 45.07M 31.07M 14M 36.0M
25 37.0M   5.07M 4.0M 46.07M 22.07M 24M 37M
26 38.0M   5.07M 4.0M 47.07M 13.07M 34M 38.0M
27 Void     4.0M $4.0M 4.0M $4.0M $36.5/yr
                 

2022 just converts the maximum possible to a signing bonus, so Rodgers earns what he is scheduled to make at present.  His cap savings would be $20.736 million, about $936K more than a trade.  

2023 appears to me to be another problematic year because I am assuming that the Packers strained every fiber to keep talented players in Green Bay in 2022 by extending them, and now the second year and much larger cap hits would be coming online.  How much should Rodgers receive in 2023?  Prescott, Watson, and Mahomes are scheduled to earn $31 million, $37 million, and $40.4 million, respectively, in straight cash that season (and not counting signing bonus money).  I would try $35 million in cash with $15M in base salary and $20 million coming in the form of a guaranteed option bonus.  That keeps Rodgers’ cap hit down as I think the Packers might still have a bit of a hangover from the void years inserted into the contracts of some players and the probable various extensions of veterans as well.

2024 is difficult.  Prescott is scheduled to earn $34M in cash ($47.2M cap number); Watson gets $32M (just a $37M cap number); Mahomes gets $37.95M ($44.293M cap number); and Josh Allen makes an appearance at $30M ($41.77M cap number).  How will a $45M cap number for one’s 41-year old quarterback look in 2024?  

I have concluded that the reports of Green Bay offering a meaningful contract to Rodgers which would have made him the highest paid player in the NFL should not be taken at face value and were really just for public relations at the time.  While simply inserting the number $41M, $43M, or $46M as base salaries into the out years of Rodgers’ contract can be done, it only works if the team has no intention of ever paying that much to Rodgers.  The proposed contract for Rodgers above paid him $36.5M per year (about 20% less than the highest paid quarterback).  My head might explode if I had to find a way to pay Rodgers $45M AAV - $34M more in new money/cash total, or $8.5M more per year.

Only Aaron Rodgers knows if he would sign an extension that would leave him outside the top 5 highest paid quarterbacks and under which he would probably slide down to 7th or so when Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray receive extensions.  At $36.5M per year, the contract I devised is no thing of beauty.  At $43M or more, it would look absolutely hideous, with cap hits in the mid-fifties to roughly $60M.  

I have not even bothered with guaranteed money.  The proposed contract gives a $25M signing bonus for 2022 and a $20M guaranteed option bonus for 2023 (both amounts in lieu of base salary), and I suppose the Packers could guarantee Rodgers’ $15M base salary in 2023 to push the guaranteed money to $60M.  Even so, I should think that Rodgers’ new team (if traded) might well nearly double that amount of guaranteed money.  Prescott got $95M fully guaranteed, Josh Allen had $100M fully guaranteed at signing and Mahomes is well over $100M.  Back in 2017 when he signed, Watson received $73.7M guaranteed at signing and Russell Wilson got $70M fully guaranteed in 2019.

This leads me to two thoughts. The first is that perhaps GMs with elite quarterbacks expect the cap to truly explode by 2025 and perhaps sooner.  Some say no single player should have a cap number that is more than 15% of the salary cap.  15% of $300M is $45M.  I do not expect the cap to reach $300M for the 2024 season.  However, those other teams can drive down the cap number by using void years (Prescott already has void years in 2025 and 2026) and by converting some of those cash payments to signing bonuses, which is facilitated by the ages of these quarterbacks in question.  I would be uncomfortable with the notion of converting cash to signing bonuses for Rodgers in 2024 and later, but some of that could be done.    

The second thought is that general managers seem to think they can win super bowls by paying exorbitant sums to elite quarterbacks.  Either that, or they think those quarterbacks can get their teams into the playoffs, thus safeguarding the jobs of these general managers.

A reader suggested in the comments that if the Packers extended Aaron Rodgers, it would mean they have not learned the error of their ways.  Another reader elaborated: “It tells you the people in charge are more concerned with winning 10 games for each of the next couple years--getting a division title or two--and keeping their jobs than they are at trying to find a way to be a SB contender again.”  I think that sentiment is valid, but looking at what other successful organizations are willing to pay their elite quarterbacks and the cap numbers they are willing to countenance does give me pause.  To me, the difference is Rodgers' age combined with the need to wring money out of their good young players and having to give risky third contracts to multiple players to play for the Packers well into their thirties.   

There are only two scenarios worth discussing: a trade or a full contractual commitment to Rodgers for multiple years.  Some fans point to Rodgers’ on-the-field performance in playoff games.  Fans of other teams might think that only in Green Bay could fans find fault with the performance on the field of a player who is about to win back-to-back MVP awards, but Rodgers’ playoff performance over the years probably makes it at least open to debate. 

I cannot construct a decent-looking contract for Rodgers if he is extended unless he is willing to play for less than his fair market value.  At $43M plus per year, extending Rodgers leads to agreeing to a series of hideous and questionable contracts for a bunch of veterans, most of whom would be signing third contracts.  Perhaps Russ Ball can find the key to this maze.  If not, the Packers should entertain trade offers.  

 

 

NFL Categories: 
18 points

Comments (119)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
NitschkeFan's picture

February 05, 2022 at 05:43 pm

Nice article TGR. I agree that unless Rodgers is willing to take a bit less, at this time his trade value is as high as it will get. The older he gets the less trade value.

I think the team has a better chance in 2022 season with Rodgers of course. But if he demands full MVP money the team is going to lose other key players and will likely be less than a championship squad. Great QB's keep you in contention year after year so every team wants one. Usually they are not enough on their own to win a title though. Need some significant talent throughout the roster.

I hate to say it but I think the recent championship "window" has closed. Without a hometown discount I think the Pack should move on.

If Rodgers and Adams could structure their deals that didn't hamstring the rest of the cap, then bring them both back. But somehow I don't see those guys taking less than every possible $.

19 points
19
0
David Davis's picture

February 05, 2022 at 05:37 pm

One day he's gone and next he's back....
time will tell if he suits up for the Pack. (I'll see myself out)

12 points
12
0
BruceC1960's picture

February 05, 2022 at 06:04 pm

Keep in mind, AR is concerned about himself 2022,23,24. Russ Ball has to keep looking at the long term. Hate to see th Packers mortgage their future. In 2024 and after, AR won’t care about Packer success.

6 points
11
5
croatpackfan's picture

February 06, 2022 at 03:58 am

I have feeling AR is already concerned about himself and his pals (like Randall Cob, DA etc), he do not care about Packers success. Well, only if he could profit from that success.

3 points
5
2
Oppy's picture

February 06, 2022 at 10:25 pm

I just posted similar comments in another CHTV article.

It really is that simple. Rodgers is concerned with Rodgers; the Packers are concerned with the Packers. Rodgers' timeline is a handful of years; the Packers will continue on for decades.

6 points
6
0
ImaPayne's picture

February 05, 2022 at 06:17 pm

Great article, nice work but my head exploded. For me the bottom line, Rodgers has out lived his usefulness at 39. You dont ruin the entire team so the manager, and gm can keep their jobs in tact a few more years. The losers would be the fans for years and years to come. Right now our entire receiving core are free agents. That alone talks of screwing up money management to accomodate pasts Rodgers contracts.
Trading him for picks and sucking up and rebuilding is the only move as far as I'm concerned. Trust me mgmt doesnt have any gutts trying to run a team without a hof QB.
I'm also convinced they dont want to win superbowls if it means spending big money on free agents and moving up in the draft for top players. As long as they get in the playoffs, its ok, Everything is fine.

6 points
14
8
jannes bjornson's picture

February 06, 2022 at 10:43 am

The time to clear out the brain trust was last off-season. As you suggested, they are now trying to lasso an extension to their contracts. Hand out some pink slips, especially move low-Ball over to a used car lot for a new career.

1 points
3
2
Oppy's picture

February 06, 2022 at 10:26 pm

"Trust me mgmt doesnt have any gutts trying to run a team without a hof QB"

They didn't draft Love believing he was going to be a HoF QB during his first start.

5 points
5
0
Wilment's picture

February 05, 2022 at 06:33 pm

Hate to say this, but I agree. the same cap that has allowed Green Bay and other small market teams to compete with their deep pocketed big city rivals, is now beckoning them to spend wisely and move along down the road. Rodgers still has value now, one shot ike the one he took from Barr a few years back could be the end. The Packers at this point need to look long term. Packers have a quality wide receiver in house, a decent offense line core, and a good defense. The team cannot win without these things. Granted, AR is a very good , possibly great qb, the most accurate of all time, but its time to let coach Lafluer to coach up Love and see what the kid has. If he isnt the guy, and the team has a bad year, they will have a high draft pick to select a class of 23 qb, and theres some good ones coming out. To let go of a bunch of good players to save one aging qb is a bad idea. Get the picks, sign your free agents, and go forward. We will all miss Rodgers, but resigning him and mortgaging the future is a non starting point. GO PACK GO

17 points
22
5
pacman's picture

February 05, 2022 at 06:53 pm

I'm not going to become a GM overnight to figure this out. To me, it comes down to the fact that to win a SB, you need a superstar QB. Everyone knows that AR is one. I don't see that MLF has proven himself able to pull it all together and I tend to blame him more than AR for the loss to SF. I think AR carried the team much more than MLF did. MLF's coaching faults have been a major non discussion in our post season. Besides, nobody seems to be saying the Love is the answer. So if we let AR go, we are left with what seems to be virtually no chance for a SB and being led by a noticeably flawed, despite his record, head coach.

It might not be possible to keep AR money-wise. But if he goes, be prepared for frustrating mediocrity for many years until we happen upon another superstar QB.

-6 points
8
14
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 05, 2022 at 07:47 pm

I tend to agree, which is why I have been something of an AR apologist. Jimmy Garoppolo can't win in the playoffs even with stacked teams. In today's NFL, teams probably need at least a good QB, but perhaps not an elite or HOF level guy. Brady was no longer a great QB in 2020, for that matter.

Reliance on having a genius for a head coach is dicey. Shanahan couldn't generate points against the Packers, but won because the Packers' STs imploded. Yet SF lost to LAR. Shanahan is 39-42 in the regular season and 4-2 in the playoffs with no super bowl wins, but at least each of those coaches got to one super bowl. Sean McVay is 55-26 in the regular season, 6-3 in the playoffs, but without a super bowl win, though he got to one super bowl.

Coldworld has written some comments questioning LaFleur's acumen. I don't want to put words in CW's mouth, but I gather he hopes LaFleur can improve in some aspects with experience.

I agree that if AR is traded, GB has virtually no chance of getting to a super bowl in 2022, and not for the next few years unless Love just needs a year or two of starting experience at which time GB will have to pay him real money. If he is really good, great, but even not great QBs make quite a bit of money - look what Tannehill makes above! That's why it is a risky move for a GM.

If GB does retain AR, I think they lose too much of their supporting cast to truly compete in the playoffs though GB probably would be easily over .500 in the regular season, at least for 2022. Maybe Gute can find starting CBs (Douglas) off a practice squad, good OLBs on the street (Mercilus) and first team all-pros at ILB for $2M per year again. Probably needs to find multiple WRs, a RB (unless Hill is as good of a slasher and home run threat as Aaron Jones), and a couple of TEs.

3 points
3
0
pacman's picture

February 05, 2022 at 11:03 pm

It seems like most on the board are done with AR. I'm getting a lot of thumbs down for considering keeping him. In either case, I still think there should be more time discussing MLF's role in the loss and problems during the season.

3 points
5
2
BirdDogUni's picture

February 06, 2022 at 07:56 am

We would all like to keep AR if it didn't destroy our Cap... (But it would...)

MaLF is culpable and needs to do a better %'in job, period.

The big problem is Gutey... 1st he drafts Love when any position player might have gotten us over the hump against the Bucs in the NFCCG season before last... That same player Gutey didn't draft since he drafted Love, might have been the missing piece for us against the 9'ers too...

Now, he's in a position to move on from a HOF QB again and could reap a whirlwind of draft picks in a trade and may be trying to bury himself in cap hell by re-signing AR... SMH

3 points
4
1
pacman's picture

February 06, 2022 at 03:14 pm

I wasn't upset by the Love pick because AR showed significant decline for 2 years. So in effect, it gave AR a wake up boost. And now Love has not shown anyone enough to hand over the reigns to him. Most of Gute's other picks/finds have worked out very (unbelievably) well. Nobody is going to bat 100% on picks. So I trust Gute to do the right thing here. And I trust AR to play well going forward. I'm questionable on MLF's ability to rebuild.

So without some of the players we will lose to free agency, we will get the 6th seed, playoffs in warm weather and win the whole thing - ala 2010. Seems like a plan to me.

Who knows, maybe GB will build a dome!

GPG!

0 points
2
2
Grandfathered's picture

February 08, 2022 at 09:02 pm

It is very speculative to say that had Gutey drafted a WR instead of Love, we would have won the SB in 20 or 21. There are a lot of potential missing pieces or things that might have been.

1 points
2
1
jannes bjornson's picture

February 10, 2022 at 02:06 pm

Tee Higgins dominated the OT drive for the Bengal Tigers and they are apparently in the SB.

0 points
0
0
canadapacker's picture

February 06, 2022 at 12:48 am

One thing that you forgot - didnt the San Fran dback Jaquiski Tartt an sure game ending interception that Stafford threw into his stomach. Many games playoff or regular season can turn on a play . So Jimmy could be going to the Superbowl or could have lost in Green Bay ( blocked punt) One play.

11 points
11
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 06, 2022 at 02:02 am

That's fair. I think Shanahan drafting Trey Lance speaks volumes. The QB winz stat is highly questionable. It may be that if Redmond doesn't drop that interception in last year's conference championship game, GB goes to a super bowl. Or not: GB still had those three and outs when they needed a drive. IIRC, Tartt's drop would really have sealed that game had he caught it (my memory is terrible so that's just my recollection). But if GB goes to the super bowl, that alone might have altered the narrative on AR. Unless he wrote a new chapter in the super bowl.

So, I agree with Pacman that the narrative on AR is a bit of an overreaction. AR's or GB's recent inability to win in the playoffs has really soured the audience on AR.

5 points
5
0
Guam's picture

February 06, 2022 at 10:43 am

Not sure I agree with your last paragraph TGR. Certainly some have soured on AR, but others have simply realized that the end is near - whether it's this year or in the near future for AR. The vast majority of quarterbacks are done by their very early forties and Rodgers will be 38/39 next season.

For me the choice is (1) keep Rodgers until he retires and then get nothing for him and face a lengthy rebuild or (2) trade him now if they can get significant value and have a much shorter rebuild. I prefer option #2. No (or very minimal) animus for Rodgers, no sour grapes, just want the Packers to reload as quickly as possible since the inevitable end will be here soon.

6 points
6
0
Coldworld's picture

February 06, 2022 at 09:14 am

It’s a question of cap/roster quality in combination with eerily similar struggles being repeated. Is Rodgers out best QB this year, almost certainly. Is Rodgers likely to take us to a Super Bowl with what they can retain of this roster, almost certainly no. It won’t be good enough. Keeping what we can together will come at a huge price in terms of surrendered trade value and future dead cap.

Some one earlier said moving on would mean we need to prepare for years of frustration. I would say not doing so means a couple of years of frustration followed by two to three more of irrelevance and a lot of the FO getting kicked out for that vandalism in hindsight.

4 points
5
1
barutanseijin's picture

February 06, 2022 at 10:35 pm

Sigh… you guys spell QB Wins with a Z and that’s the end of the analysis.

Is it just simple twists of fate that keep a-Wad from winning playoff games? Why does it keep happening? Maybe there’s a pattern. I think Packer fans already know about it: the low percentage deep balls, DavanteVision, the low success rate dump offs… I get the sense that a certain faction doesn’t want to see it as a pattern, that they’d rather just cheer on ol’ number 12. QB Winz nyuk nyuk, lowest INT rate Evah!!! eMVeePee QED.

The Athletic had an interesting breakdown of Kirk Cousins’ performances in big games. Kirk, as Vikings fans like to remind us, has some Very Impressive Stats. The thing is lil’ Kirk consistently comes up small in Big Games. The first thing they did was filter out garbage time numbers. Ouch said Kirk. Some things that came out of their number crunching were his lack of mobility and his predilection for throwing short of the sticks in high leverage situations.

Kirk is not the only guy with such problems Some better QBs have similar tendencies, just at a higher level of competition. Think of the 3rd and 2 after the Ripowski fumble in Atlanta: a short pass to Cobb for… no gain. Punt. The next series? A long one to Nelson that gets picked off. Then three straight incomplete passes to open the second half. Punt. Yes his defense was terrible, but NEshowed you could beat those guys in a shootout.

1 points
2
1
BirdDogUni's picture

February 08, 2022 at 05:40 pm

I think what has really soured the audience on AR is him not playing like a MVP in the Playoffs/NFCCGs and the fact that he'll destroy our cap this year if they extend him again...

2 points
2
0
Gee's picture

February 09, 2022 at 04:07 pm

Yep his play in the championship games has a lot to do with it and his off the field stuff didn't help. Its concerning to me, how the FO went all in the year they needed too, with the knowledge that this was coming. Now they are willing to handicap their futures and the team, by trying to keep him. I will always cheer for Rodgers where ever he is, but man even the biggest pro Rodgers guys have to look what going happen by keeping him, and wonder if its worth it.

Worse thing for me concerning the FO change of play, is they know this team has pieces , but no cap space. Even if Rodgers comes back what kind of team will he be leading? I have hard time thinking they would favorites, to win it all.

0 points
0
0
Coldworld's picture

February 06, 2022 at 05:20 pm

“ Coldworld has written some comments questioning LaFleur's acumen. I don't want to put words in CW's mouth, but I gather he hopes LaFleur can improve in some aspects with experience.”

That’s a very very nice way to phrase it. You should have been a diplomat TGR!

I’m obviously of the view that bringing Rodgers back as a mistake. However, for me that’s mostly based on cap mathematics, age and roster implications. I am not one who thinks Rodgers ditched a great plan. He may not have helped, but LaFleur made the same mistakes as in previous years and has still not fathomed a way to overcome good tesms playing that kind of D, despite having the tools in my view.

When it matters, LaFleur had not had a better game plan, or called a better game and made the sharper adjustments. Leaving aside his culpability for Drayton and the ST, LaFleur is not winning coaching battles when it matters. If his scheme and players don’t win the battle he’s lost. His coaching decisions before (O Line, for example) and during were big factors hindering our performance. No HC will be successful with such a record. What LaFleur had brought is a scheme. Now he needs to show that he can bring more and avoid digging holes like Drayton and going away from the run and anything approaching complexity.

LaFleur said the same kind of mea culpas after each playoff loss. Each time he repeats despite stronger rosters. At some point, objectively, one had to ask if he has a solution in him, and, if so, how long we have to wait for it to emerge. That’s the thing, winning coaches help their team get small advantages. LaFleur seems to make the hill we have to climb steeper.

Rodgers did not deliver, it is true, but LaFleur both dug the ST pit we fell into and made decisions that made Rodgers job more difficult. Rodgers isn’t in his prime. He can’t work as many miracles. Even with a strong roster he couldn’t lift us, but LaFleur made the weight heavier. Yes, we should be very concerned about LaFleur and his ability to grow into a true HC. In my view, if he really believes his best chance of winning is Rodgers and a weaker roster then doubly so because he lacks faith in his one asset: his system.

4 points
4
0
Gee's picture

February 09, 2022 at 04:10 pm

Damn remind me to never get on your bad side. LOL Still a great comment, cheers to you sir.

2 points
2
0
jurp's picture

February 06, 2022 at 10:46 am

"To me, it comes down to the fact that to win a SB, you need a superstar QB. "

Totally not true. Is Joe Burrow a superstar? No, although I'd say he's on his way to becoming one. Is Matthew Stafford a superstar? No. Both are very good, but not elite QBs. Yet one of them will win the Super Bowl this year while a true superstar in Patrick Mahomes will watch from his home or wherever.

Two additional words: Nick Foles.

You write about us expecting mediocrity without AR, but it's the exact opposite - mortgage our future for the next 4-5 years and the best we can expect is 9-8 seasons and most likely get only 4-13 seasons. We simply won't have the money to keep our good young players or sign and any FAs on the market.

3 points
5
2
CWolf's picture

February 09, 2022 at 03:15 am

"To me, it comes down to the fact that to win a SB, you need a superstar QB."
I believe that's true (there are always outliers, but generally I think that's true). It's also true that a superstar QB is not all it takes. If you can't pay the team around the superstar QB (no matter who he is) you can't win a SB either.

2 points
2
0
GPG1985's picture

February 05, 2022 at 07:20 pm

The cap issue is tough, but if most fans thought he was a “team guy” it would be a no brainer, but most fans including me believe that’s not the case.

Ever since they cut Jordy and signed Jimmy Graham for roughly the same amount of money the trust issues became more exemplified. I can feel for Rodgers that we haven’t spent draft capital on a WR since Adams, (Tee Higgins from 2020 draft and OBJ in the Super Bowl) but at a certain point you have to put your arms around the guys on your team and make them better and get with them on the sidelines to figure things out.

On a side note if AJ Dillon doesn’t break his ribs the Pack probably win the game.

6 points
8
2
croatpackfan's picture

February 06, 2022 at 04:06 am

I gave you an upvote, but there is lot of ifs...

2 points
2
0
CheesyTex's picture

February 05, 2022 at 07:32 pm

Thank you, TGR, always appreciate your insights.

The detailed numbers do blow my mind, especially in the context of Rodgers' statement that he does not want to be part of a "rebuild". Not sure if I'm correct, but I believe he also said he wants to continue playing on the same team as Davante Adams.

Starting out so far over the projected cap and with limited large contracts to kick the can further down the road, it's hard to imagine that even Russ Ball could devise a plan to avoid a rebuild if both are re-signed.

So, to my mind blown by the numbers, it sounds like #12 has already said good-bye.

7 points
7
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 05, 2022 at 08:07 pm

Sure, link to this AFTER I publish when I gave you a draft of this to read!

I have never heard of Benjamin Allbright, and the article is by Darrelle Lincoln, also unknown to me. Googling: Allbright is a media guy for a Denver radio station who covers the Broncos, and he has written for Pro Football Network. I don't know what his reputation is otherwise. Lincoln has written for Total Pro Sports since 2015, but I've never heard of Total Pro Sports, either.

What is interesting is that the article claims GB's offer last year was to have AR play for $25M in 2021 and again for about that amount in 2022, while tacking on two years of "new money" that would make him the highest paid player in the NFL. So, about $140M (2 times $45M in 2023 and 2024 plus 2 times $25M in 2021 and 2022) for 4 years total. That's $35M AAV though the agents would say $45M AAV since that's the new money amount. AR said no. We don't know if any money was guaranteed, but there probably was a big signing bonus.

Now GB has another big deal they want to offer AR. Well, let's see how well this article ages!

4 points
5
1
BirdDogUni's picture

February 05, 2022 at 08:25 pm

Dude - It was published yesterday, and I only saw it today... : )

Personally, you know I hope it's BS and you're right!

I've never heard of them either, so hoping it's Total BS from Total Pro Sports! ; )

(Great article TGR!)

4 points
4
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 05, 2022 at 09:31 pm

Very well. I guess that's why I got nominated to be the executive's assistant a year ago. 😁 [Sorry, inside joke.]

I still need to punch up the titles, but I just don't have clickbait in me. I do think moving the Joel Cory article from the very end to close to the beginning, then surveying the market, and finally offering a contract I could sort of stomach worked better.

4 points
4
0
LeotisHarris's picture

February 05, 2022 at 08:16 pm

Easy. Deep breath. Check out the trending articles on the sidebar for that website. Might not be the best source for information on, well, anything.

5 points
5
0
BirdDogUni's picture

February 05, 2022 at 08:46 pm

Excellent point! I pray you and TGR are correct! (For multiple reasons!)

3 points
3
0
jurp's picture

February 06, 2022 at 10:52 am

If the story is true, then I hope AR enjoys playing in a 7-man offense - the Oline plus him and DA.

Yeah, just kidding around. :)

2 points
3
1
Handsback's picture

February 06, 2022 at 01:10 pm

I read that and I don't see Green Bays capability of doing a monster deal, or even a good deal.

2 points
2
0
BirdDogUni's picture

February 05, 2022 at 07:47 pm

I'm afraid Mark Murphy, Gutey, and Russ Ball are fine with the status quo, no matter what it cost the Packers, and they keep their jobs...

Rumors of a mega deal after reading TGR's article makes me want to puke my guts up and I haven't even had a drink today...

SSMH

4 points
7
3
Coldworld's picture

February 05, 2022 at 09:43 pm

If they pull that one they may find it soon has the opposite results. Rightly so.

4 points
4
0
13TimeChamps's picture

February 05, 2022 at 07:55 pm

Aaron Rodgers is one of the greatest regular season QBs ever. But GB is 1-4 in their last NFCCG's with him as the QB. Is it his fault alone? Of course not. But when did he play like an MVP in any of those 4 losses? The last two, the game was there for the taking, but the results were 3 and outs multiple times with the game on the line.

2021 was the year with bringing everyone back. It ended with a divisional round loss with home field advantage. Why on earth would anyone think next year will be any different with a less talented roster and AR12 a year older?

This offseason will be the last that GB can get any significant return in a trade. It's time to do what's best for the franchise and move on. I hope the FO has the required vision to realize that. I'm not overly confident that they do.

16 points
20
4
BruceC1960's picture

February 05, 2022 at 10:25 pm

+1

2 points
2
0
Hematite's picture

February 06, 2022 at 06:44 am

+1

1 points
1
0
Hematite's picture

February 06, 2022 at 06:44 am

+1

1 points
1
0
BirdDogUni's picture

February 05, 2022 at 08:21 pm

I guess there is some hope that AR turns down a Mega Deal with GB, but I doubt it.

Common sense told me that last year they would let Aaron Jones walk and draft another RB, and they signed him to decent contract.

This year I figured they would trade AR, ride with Love, since Gutey traded up in the 1st round to draft the kid, and it looks like they're going to sign him to a mega deal... I just don't get it.

I guess they figured since it seemed like AR was declining they would draft Love, and then AR pulls off two MVP seasons in a row, making them look stupid...

I still don't see how we can pull this shit off? AR Mega Deal isn't a terrible thing, but how are we going to field a team? I guess we'll have to wait and see?

2 points
6
4
Coldworld's picture

February 05, 2022 at 09:45 pm

Murphy wants to retire with a Super Bowl and the health of the football side after him doesn’t matter it would seem.

2 points
2
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 05, 2022 at 08:48 pm

One issue seems might be whether teams need a really good QB to win super bowls.

Another might be whether a team can win paying > 15% of cap to a single player. Those cap numbers for the other QBs are pretty darn big. Prescott will only be 32 when he becomes an UFA, so surely Dallas won't want the hangover of a huge dead money hit so they can give him a third contract. Dallas is $21M over the cap at present and that's with Prescott having a $34.45M cap number in 2022. They do have a few guys they can move money around and/or release, but it isn't all that many. Amari Cooper has $16M in cap savings if traded/released. Matt Ryan got to a super bowl with a 15% of the cap situation. BTW, Atlanta is $6M over the cap and Ryan at age 37 has a $48.6M cap number. I suspect Atlanta should jettison Ryan even though it means a $40M dead money hit, though I know little about Atlanta other than their win/loss record.

Have I misconstrued the numbers or do other smart GMs think paying QBs big money with large cap numbers is fine and the correct way to operate their franchises?

Others think defense wins championships. I do as well, but a team needs quite a few good players to field a really good defense. I think it is harder to keep a great defense paid and on the roster, but I could be wrong. Some coaches seem to have good defenses without a ton of star power on the roster. And/or their star players are not stars elsewhere.

CW used the phrase Damascene Conversion in a comment. Since I attended parochial school for almost a decade, I did remember it when it was called to mind. The phrase stuck in my head with regard to AR. Still, it feels like plagiarism. Whether it is or not, here is credit to CW.

I think my over/under on keeping AR is if he will play for around $36.5M. It might need to be less, but I don't think it can be a lot more than that. At that point we move to player evaluation and what's going on with AR, the coaches, and the team in general with regard to performance in the playoffs.

6 points
7
1
Bitternotsour's picture

February 08, 2022 at 08:49 pm

Tom Brady is a really good quarterback. Look at the rings. You want a really good quarterback. A great defense is swell. Once in a while they win a super bowl.

Great quarterbacks have multiple rings. Starr, Bradshaw, Montana. And then there's Brady.

The Bears got one ring from the greatest defense ever assembled. One ring.

1 points
1
0
stockholder's picture

February 05, 2022 at 09:09 pm

They want Rodgers back. Murphy even said," he wants him back." The goal here is a winning QB. Your point is they can't afford him. I say the Packers must honor his contract. And they will. Even if it costs players. I get everyone has their price. But-Rodgers came back! The fences are mended. They're not going to cut him, and turn this into a media spectacle. They offered money to Favre. They will give money to Rodgers. Rodgers only needs to say," I'm going to honor my contract."

-6 points
4
10
BirdDogUni's picture

February 05, 2022 at 10:46 pm

Who said anything about cutting him?

Nobody...

Trade him yes, cut no!

Murphy said he wants him back for PR purposes, because that's what most fans want to hear, but the truth is we can't afford him.

Thanks Aaron for all the memories and good luck in Denver...

3 points
6
3
stockholder's picture

February 06, 2022 at 07:13 am

We can't afford him. Suggests frustration. And The retirement talk; tells me they won't get more than a 3rd. So you know Gutey would just release/cut/move-on for cap room. He'll retire before he goes to Denver.

-1 points
3
4
jurp's picture

February 06, 2022 at 10:56 am

Did you even TRY to read the article you're commenting on? And why would AR retire instead of accepting a trade to Denver? That makes absolutely no sense at all.

0 points
3
3
stockholder's picture

February 06, 2022 at 03:27 pm

Your a Booo bird. Rodgers isn't going to come back and be booed here. And that possibility does exist, if he goes someplace else. It's happen to many of All-Stars who left for money!

1 points
3
2
jurp's picture

February 06, 2022 at 05:16 pm

WTF are you even talking about?

I couldn't give two shits about AR - I'm TEAM FIRST, not AR first. Giving AR a monster contract would set this franchise back 45 years.

2 points
4
2
Gee's picture

February 09, 2022 at 04:48 pm

Hmm a part of me wants to think Murphy is playing a con game here, with media. Look maybe the trade market, is not as great as some here think. I am in the camp of that Rodgers age and cap hit limits his return value. Maybe there is only a couple of teams, now Murphy and the rest of FO are singing the same song of being him back, now we have another team in the mix. Maybe he's hoping with all the extension talk, maybe they can show what he is willing to take. Cause he is not getting traded to anyone without an extension, if they want some sort of great return.

I'm with your last statement, I wish him well and good luck were ever he lands.

1 points
1
0
HarryHodag's picture

February 06, 2022 at 09:03 am

OK....I'm going to invest my time watching Aaron Rodgers move toward retirement with a cast around him gleaned from the St. Norbert Golden Knights Div. III football team. That's all they can afford.

Notice: Rodgers doesn't want to 'honor his contract'. Mahomes is making $15 million more a year than Rodgers. Rodgers wants that kind of money(or more) to stay on or he moves on.

Now decide if the risk to the Packers future is worth one or two years of Rodgers then five or more years trying to field a competitive team after he is gone. They can build the future with a trade or slide into the 1970's. You decide.

5 points
6
1
stockholder's picture

February 06, 2022 at 03:41 pm

He will honor his contract. They renegotiated it already. The problem that you are not seeing. Is Amos, The Smiths, And Turner. Won't be given an extension. This is a business. Expect Malice.

-3 points
2
5
dobber's picture

February 06, 2022 at 05:04 pm

SNC has had some pretty good teams over the time #12 has been playing in GB...

3 points
3
0
Jordan's picture

February 06, 2022 at 01:35 am

My guess is Rodgers retires and starts touring the country giving lectures on critical thinking and epidemiology. Either that or maybe he starts doing reverse mortgage commercials. I would imagine that he will first consult with Dr. Joe Rogan before making any decisions about his future.

1 points
9
8
NickPerry's picture

February 06, 2022 at 03:12 am

Clearly you're joking, at least I hope you are. If not there's this to consider...

There is NO WAY Rodgers retires now. Rodgers ego is too big to have to share the HOF ceremony stage with Tom Brady. Do you really believe Rodgers would play 2nd fiddle to anyone on his HOF induction?

8 points
9
1
jurp's picture

February 06, 2022 at 10:58 am

Excellent point! Although it would be extremely amusing to watch AR being inducted with TB. You could play a drinking game during the ceremony - every time AR scowls, you have to take a shot! You may not even remember the end of the ceremony by the time it's over.

2 points
3
1
NickPerry's picture

February 06, 2022 at 12:39 pm

LOL...That was funny.

1 points
1
0
Jordan's picture

February 06, 2022 at 10:18 pm

Of course I was mostly joking and you make a good point. However, if you take a step back and examine Rodgers’ behavior and the things he’s said over the last 10 months, it would appear to me that he is not mentally well and could very well retire. He appears too far gone to me (mentally). But who knows, maybe he can get some help and turn it around. But I have noticed that once people start getting medical advice from Joe Rogan and start parroting Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity, they are gone. Past the point of no return. At least Rodgers isn’t parroting Q-ANON yet so there is a slight chance he can make it. Unless of course the deep state is out to get him. ;)

Tennessee doesn’t have income tax so now that he’s sold his home in California he’ll be able to afford a good shrink. ;)

In a recent interview, Rodgers said he’s working on his mental health. That’s a good thing.

1 points
3
2
NickPerry's picture

February 07, 2022 at 06:07 am

LOL... I just meant the "retire" part of your comment, I understand the rest was for our amusement.

Rodgers is a strange dude, everytime he gets a new girlfriend he starts doing/saying some strange stuff. A few more weeks of this crap and we'll know.

3 points
3
0
Lphill's picture

February 08, 2022 at 10:32 pm

I think you’re more of a Kirk Cousins kind of guy.

-3 points
0
3
NickPerry's picture

February 06, 2022 at 03:45 am

"The Cap Suggests Moving On From Rodgers
When I think about Aaron Rodgers' future in Green Bay using words, I want to keep him, but not when I look at numbers."

Personally I think this sums it up, and it should be that easy. The Packers are already in cap hell in 2022 due to two reasons. The cap didn't go up in 2021, instead it went down, yet the Packers still pushed all in for the year. They had the best roster in the entire NFL IMO in 2021 and still couldn't get it done. Now, in 2022 with what would almost certainly be a weaker team IMO, the idea is to try again with the same QB and a weaker team?

Rodgers is 7-9 since winning the SB after the 2010 season. 2 years ago he said he wanted one in Lambeau after getting crushed by the 49ers. In 2020 he got one at home, but it wasn't really a TRUE home game because Lambeau was short about 75,000 screaming fans due to COVID. So finally, EVERYTHING Rodgers had asked for. A PACKED Lambeau Field, frigid temperatures, a bye, a warm weather team, and a defensive performance that would have made Fritz Shurmur and the 1996 Packers Defense proud, and HE STILL DIDN'T GET IT DONE.

PLEASE Gute, don't destroy the Packers future. You have the opportunity to not only field a pretty damn good team in 2022, but you give Jordan Love what he needs most...EXPERIENCE, and you get a ONE TIME CHANCE at getting something back for Rodgers.

BTW...He's not retiring. There is NO WAY Rodgers retires and goes into the HOF the same day Brady does. His EGO couldn't handle being the runner-up on the HOF stage too.

13 points
17
4
Hematite's picture

February 06, 2022 at 06:50 am

+1

-1 points
1
2
stockholder's picture

February 06, 2022 at 07:25 am

I don't see the moving on from Rodgers here. He's signed. And if Rodgers was smart, he'll come back for his final year. The guy they have to move on from is Adams. They can't afford him. They will match offers for MVS and Lazard. Reworking the smiths. Campbell will leave! No way they pay him 10 mil.

-2 points
2
4
NickPerry's picture

February 06, 2022 at 08:21 am

WE have different opinions on this one SH. See I think Jordan Love could lead the Packers to a 10-7 record and an NFC North title. Matter of fact I'd be pretty stoked to watch him run this offense, the COMPLETE MLF offense the way it's meant to be run. TONS of Dillon, lots of Jones, with LOTS of motion and creativity. With Rodgers we get a version of the offense, but never the complete version of LaFleur's offense.

IMO trading Rodgers lets them do much if not all of this.

They'll rework Preston Smith, but Za'Darius Smith is gone. I think they'll extend Amos too, at least I hope they do. What a bummer it would be to be back in 2018 without and Safeties again. They still have Savage, but it's Amos who holds the backend together. Also, with Joe Barry as the DC and the DIFFERENCE we saw in the defense with Campbell at ILB, I wouldn't say goodbye to Campbell just yet. $10 million sounds pretty rich for doing it for one year after what, 6 years in the NFL? Maybe something around $5.5 million a year with some incentives. Sportac has his market value at $6.2 Million a year.

What about Alexander and Jenkins, even Savage. What about Douglas, Sullivan, Barnes, or Nijman to name a few. Personally I'd make sure Nijman doesn't go ANYWHERE and move him to RT. There's just SO MANY players ready to go and keeping Rodgers means most of them will leave.

I'm ready for the "Beautiful Mystery" that is Jordan Love. I already know how it plays out with Rodgers.

3 points
6
3
Coldworld's picture

February 06, 2022 at 09:20 am

Doing the same thing with no plausible basis for belief that the outcome will be better is the definition of foolishness. We can’t match the team of the last 1-2 years which was not good enough then. Mortgaging the next 5 years to do so makes foolishness recklessly negligent.

3 points
6
3
stockholder's picture

February 06, 2022 at 03:13 pm

Z. Smith is out the door if they Franchise Adams. Roto World already has Cobb and Mercedes Lewis cut before June 1. And possibly bringing Cobb back later. I say Gute should keep the Smiths, Amos , and Turner. Just reworking their contracts. He must be true to his word which brought them here. Adams @30 mil. will be a "future problem". Rodgers can go where he wants next year, or get paid to retire. The smart play is to trade Love. While they can. I'm looking for an injury settlement with Bahk. and maybe Z. Smiths back .

-4 points
1
5
BirdDogUni's picture

February 06, 2022 at 09:48 pm

No, the smart play is to get teams in a bidding war for AR, trade him to the highest bidder, which he can spin anyway he wants. Tag & Trade DA. Take those picks and draft for our future with Jordan Love at QB.

It's really that simple, and whether it happens exactly like this or sorta like this, it's still the smart play.

5 points
5
0
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

February 09, 2022 at 06:56 am

Nick, extremely well stated!

1 points
1
0
croatpackfan's picture

February 06, 2022 at 04:35 am

TGR, thank you for your efforts. We are lucky that you are the member of this site.

As of some posters here who wrote that Packers want winner at QB, my answer is: 1:4 in the last 5 post season games. That is not the winner.

I also agree that we can not put everything on AR in the last game, but he share a lot of guilt. MLF is another one with substantial share (not making changes at STC, being to servant to AR wishes, throwing red flag in at least very questionable situations, missing back up plans, when original game plan does not working, etc), Mike Murphy for dictating moves to FO, and not giving the free hands to people responsible for their job.

But, at the end, it is all about execution during the game. And that is on AR shoulders.

I am firmly for trading AR. Because I really want to have joy watching Packers playing meaningful games in the near future. If it will be year or 2 with strugling, we all can survive that period if light will come soon. But, if we ruin the future by being blackmailed by 2 persons - AR & Mike Murphy, only what we can expect will be years of misery.

0 points
5
5
Roadrunner23's picture

February 06, 2022 at 07:53 am

I believe you nailed it with the “GM safeguarding their jobs” line!

1. Resigning Rodgers guarantee’s at least a playoff wildcard.
2. Resigning Rodgers also covers up the fact that they probably wasted a #1 pick on Jordan Love. If he was the future the Packers would move on with a boatload of picks acquired in a Rodgers trade.

Moving on from Favre to Rodgers was a painful yet cunning move that paid off handsomely.
Moving on from Rodgers to Love the Packers front office already knows would be a massive disaster that could set the franchise back for a decade.
Draft mistakes have consequences and the Packers are showing their cards that they made a major blunder in drafting Jordan Love.
I hope this is not the case but the Packers are showing their hand and it’s not coming up Aces!

-1 points
8
9
BirdDogUni's picture

February 06, 2022 at 08:44 am

"Moving on from Rodgers to Love the Packers front office already knows would be a massive disaster that could set the franchise back for a decade.
Draft mistakes have consequences and the Packers are showing their cards that they made a major blunder in drafting Jordan Love."

I call BS...

I didn't particularly like the Love pick, but if Gutey does his job and trades AR like he should, it damn sure won't set the franchise back a decade... Gutey chose Love... He's going to have to Ride or Die with that decision, and if Love ends up a bust (which I don't think will be the case) he will have draft capital from the AR trade to correct his mistake, or the new GM will...

; )

Gutey may have made a mess of things, but there are a couple ways he can come out of this smelling like a rose, and we won't know that for a couple years...

6 points
8
2
Roadrunner23's picture

February 06, 2022 at 12:15 pm

True and I hope I’m wrong and Love becomes our next HOF QB, I just don’t see any signs of that.
Love looks eerily similar to Deshon Kiser not Aaron Rodgers.
I hope I’m wrong

-2 points
1
3
BirdDogUni's picture

February 08, 2022 at 06:07 pm

I don't see Deshon Kiser at all when I look at Jordan Love. First of all, the Packers didn't throw JL10 to the wolves and get him so gunshy he can't pull the trigger. They didn't destroy his confidence by letting him get beat down for a full season.

I have seen enough of Jordan Love's arm and legs to know he has all the tools, can make every throw, and if MaLF puts him in a position to succeed, I believe he will.

Will he be all world his first season? Probably not, but that doesn't mean he can't be the best QB in the North for years to come. If MaLF does his job, Jordan Love can put up great numbers and lead the Packers to a winning season, no doubt in my mind.

1 points
1
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 07, 2022 at 02:56 am

I stole the GM safeguarding their jobs line from dobber, and I think it was Bure or Oppy who opened that line of thought.

2 points
2
0
Oppy's picture

February 08, 2022 at 06:13 pm

That wasn't me, that's for sure.

I think the "we want Rodgers back" is rodgers-like word crafting.
I believe it's spin intended to portray one thing, without actually lying.

I'm sure the Packers would love to have Rodgers back- if he was willing to sign a restructure that paid him in such a fashion it didn't hamper their ability to extend key young, core player talent and continue to field a winning team around him.. and if there was an easy out after 2022 so they could transition to Love (or.. whoever.)

I'd also love to own a 75' yacht, and that's the honest truth. But I also know I can't afford one at the sticker price and the owner is highly unlikely to give me a 90% price cut. But I absolutely want to own a 75' yacht.

1 points
1
0
BirdDogUni's picture

February 08, 2022 at 06:30 pm

I couldn't even afford the refreshments required on a 75' yacht, let alone maintenance and up-keep... ; )

I get where you were going though.

Maybe AR just needs to buy the Packers and pay himself whatever he thinks is fair? ;P

If he was the owner, it wouldn't count against the Cap would it TGR?

0 points
0
0
BirdDogUni's picture

February 08, 2022 at 06:31 pm

TGR - What are the loop-holes for Player/Coaches?

Just spit-balling here...

0 points
0
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 09, 2022 at 02:32 am

I thought that AR just might consider that he could make up taking less money on his NFL contract with endorsements: 3 time Super Bowl winner and 4 time MVP. I think his actions may have diminished his potential endorsement earnings sufficiently that this line of thinking is less likely to work.

1 points
1
0
dobber's picture

February 08, 2022 at 06:47 pm

I got my agent on the phone and we need to talk royalties...

0 points
0
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 09, 2022 at 02:36 am

Nothing times nothing equals nothing.

0 points
0
0
dobber's picture

February 09, 2022 at 05:05 am

Can I get a cup of coffee with that?

1 points
1
0
mrtundra's picture

February 06, 2022 at 08:17 am

The cap issues the Packers have will cause them to make tough decisions for several players. I think Rodgers gets traded for draft picks, from some team enamored with getting a 4 time MVP QB. I see Davante leaving the team, too. I also see Cobb, Zadarious, Crosby and maybe Bakhtiari leaving, as well. It would not surprise me to see Gute trade Bakhtiari for picks, or a FA. Our D Line has shown that Nijman, Runyon can play Bakh's spot, fairly well, and if the Packers take an OT early, in the draft, as I suspect they will, depending on the trade deal they get for Rodgers, Bakh's time in GB could be at an end. I am hoping if Davante leaves, we can keep our other WRs such as MVS, ESB and Lazard. It will not be smooth sailing for awhile, in GB, but at least we are not stuck with Cousins.

1 points
3
2
13TimeChamps's picture

February 06, 2022 at 11:02 am

They can't trade Bakh this year because of the dead money hit it would incur. But even if they could, why would a team trade for a 30 year old player coming off a major injury who has a massive contract?

5 points
6
1
Qoojo's picture

February 06, 2022 at 10:11 am

Here's my overly cynical take. Murphy, Gute, and MLF want AR to stay at any cost because AR helps them keep their jobs. As long as they keep AR happy (part-time GM...sure!), they are almost guaranteed to be over .500 and in the playoffs.

2 points
4
2
jurp's picture

February 06, 2022 at 11:03 am

If you're right (and I'm afraid that you are), then Gutekunst needs to change his last name to Pace and Murphy needs to change his to McCaskey.

4 points
5
1
Roadrunner23's picture

February 06, 2022 at 12:17 pm

Yep exactly

1 points
1
0
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

February 06, 2022 at 11:46 am

Thanks TGR!
As someone else says your article makes my head explode.

My comments are if the Packers could not win in 2017 and 2018 with a younger Rodgers and lesser talent with less than 500 seasons why should anyone now expect Rodgers being 4 & 5 years older will win with less talent going forward? Wasn't it obvious all year (2021) that Rodgers could not throw a deep ball accurately to MVS? That he no longer can break the pocket and out run many DL who are 60 to 80 lbs heavier? Yes, he brings experience and ball management which obviously are critical but in the most important game of the year he played down consistently making bad decisions missing open receivers, and throwing into double teams. This type of play you would expect with a young QB (see: https://youtu.be/4Nms8vyLKAk) but not a wily experienced QB like Rodgers.

Even with the distracting narcistic diva behaviors with Rodgers aside how anyone could think they need to resign Rodgers to a multiple year extension putting the team in cap hell makes absolutely no sense. MLF and Murphy have now gone public claiming they want Rodgers to return. Whether that is public non-sense for PR's I do not know. While a big supporter of the Packers front office and decision making up to this point should they resign Rodgers putting the team in cap hell requiring the loss of quality players I firmly feel the executive board needs to clean house. The decision should be very clear not only is Rodgers play deteriorating (MVP because of talent surrounding Rodgers, and MLF's scheme) but he also does not look out for the team throwing only to those players he likes. Should Rodgers be resigned than Love was a horrible choice and likely to be a bust. Up to this point MLF in my mind has not done everything he could have done to prepare Love and get him the experience he needed even with covid aside.

1 points
2
1
Handsback's picture

February 06, 2022 at 01:01 pm

With the CAP situation, if Rodgers stay...he'll still lose because his team will have to be built from a small cadre of players.
There's not another run next year unless everyone decides to take a pay cut. Do you see that happening?

3 points
3
0
Rossonero's picture

February 06, 2022 at 01:10 pm

Excellent analysis TGR! I'm glad we have you to break down the numbers, because like others have noted, it makes my head hurt too. While there might be ways to move money around, I have a hard time seeing Rodgers being willing to take any pay cut.

I think the front office learned after last season that communication is critical -- internally amongst themselves -- and externally to players like Rodgers. Publicly, they are all consistently messaging the same thing: they want him back....but privately, between them what we don't know is, at what cost? I have a hard time believing that Gute, LaFleur, Russ Ball and Mark Murphy are saying "at any cost, yeah!!"

I can only speculate, but perhaps they're messaging is to ensure publicly that the fans know they are not pushing him out. But if they are more transparent with him about the ripple effect of keeping him, Adams, MVS, then he might start to understand the bigger picture of just how different this team will look (and he doesn't want to play for a "rebuilding" team....please define "rebuild," Mr. Rodgers).

Perhaps the telling signs will be if they start re-structuring guys' contracts, pushing money into the future to free up cap space -- but if they start aggressively doing it, then tag Adams, then I think they'll go all in again. The only question mark is, will they extend Rodgers one more year to keep him as a trade option in 2023? Because if he plays out his contract, then he may walk for just a comp. pick, and when we could get a king's ransom right now, a comp. pick for Aaron Rodgers is an absurd waste.

1 points
1
0
BirdDogUni's picture

February 06, 2022 at 10:06 pm

The more I think about it, the more I feel the "We want him back..." is for his ego. For the fanbase that doesn't understand the Cap implications. Sure we all want him back, but not at the expense of every decent player on the team. Not if it puts us in cap hell for 3 - 5 years...

Of course we want him back if we can work it out so it's advantageous for all concerned, but there is absolutely no way I can see that happening. Maybe they have a plan I can't fathom? I just can't see it.

Not trading AR this off-season may be the worst business decision I've ever heard of, especially if there are multiple offers from multiple teams like they're projecting.

Be interesting to see it all unfold.

1 points
1
0
Rossonero's picture

February 07, 2022 at 05:33 am

Agreed. I just don't see how the numbers fit without demolishing a chunk of the roster. The guy will be 39 and he doesn't take care of himself or play the way Brady did. Rodgers has had a lot more injuries, likes to run around (Brady was a statue) and has taken some big hits. All of that stuff catches up with you sooner than later. If the Packers cave in to Rodgers demands, then it could set the franchise back for a number of years when they could just cash in now.

1 points
1
0
Leatherhead's picture

February 06, 2022 at 03:15 pm

Thank you, TGR. You have a lot more patience with the details than I do, and I appreciate that. I’m kind of “big brush” kind of painter myself. I like to chart a course and deal with the details along the way.

In any event, we’ve arrived at the same conclusion. However…the 1265 Braintrust is making noise about bringing him back next year. Either they’re serious, or it’s just theater. What do you think?

I believe it’s theater, because as you pointed out, there’s a dozen cold, hard facts that make trading Rodgers the smart move. I could be wrong. He could be our guy again next year. I wouldn’t like it, but that doesn’t make any difference

I’m a big fan of simplicity, particularly when you’re dealing with a bunch of moving parts. Trade Rodgers to Denver for the cap relief, the #9 pick, and Jeudy. Use the pick to strengthen the defense, use our own #28 to get a premium TE. Rely on a good ground game and defense while Love gets experience.

And that’s the last I’m going to speculate.

8 points
8
0
BirdDogUni's picture

February 06, 2022 at 10:08 pm

I like the way you speculate L...

; )

2 points
2
0
Gee's picture

February 09, 2022 at 04:52 pm

Great comment and I'm 100 % with you, including what to expect for Rodgers in trade. Cheers

0 points
0
0
Oppy's picture

February 06, 2022 at 10:44 pm

If I want anyone to actually take me seriously, I have to talk about the financial and roster-building issues that surround keeping Aaron Rodgers and why that forces the Packers to make a rational decision to trade him, and likely Adams, in 2022 for the benefit of the team over the next 3-7 years.

If nobody talks about Rodgers' tendency to be a massive PITA and his history of going off the script in big games and letting his tunnel-vision / trust issues derail a successful playoff run, it's a testament to how willfully blind Packers fans are.. and maybe we deserve to watch this team fall apart over the next decade.

Most talented coach killer of all time.
Too bad it takes the entire team down with the coach, too.

5 points
6
1
MarkinMadison's picture

February 07, 2022 at 08:37 am

Number of top paid QBs in the Super Bowl: ZERO.

4 points
4
0
BirdDogUni's picture

February 08, 2022 at 06:14 pm

IDK how much Stafford is making, but he cost the RAMS a Shit-ton, so there's that...

Joe Cool is on his rookie contract, and J. Chase was a homerun in the draft, which tells me, if Gutey does his job, we can follow the Bengals model next year, but not with AR at QB...

No, I don't think Jordan Love is Joe Cool, but his second full year of starting he could be pretty good.

0 points
1
1
PatrickGB's picture

February 07, 2022 at 10:58 am

The cap will probably explode two-three years from now. He would be affordable then but he would be three years older as well. I am leaning on the idea that Ball has a plan to rework his contract. It’s the other players that I worry about. We can’t do both.
Murphy says he wants to keep him. If Rodgers agrees then we will. But the supporting cast will change drastically.

0 points
1
1
flackcatcher's picture

February 07, 2022 at 03:29 pm

Great article TGR. The Rodgers contract issues are playing out as expected. It's all about what the Packers can get in a trade at this point, and dealing with the fallout from his contract. Even if the Cap has a bump up over the next two years, it will not help the front office. (The downside of drafting well. PAY THE MAN! Packers front office: With what?) Outside of a few teams, most are facing the same situation the Packers are to some degree. No one inside knows what Cap number will be next years, and that is even with the monster TV ratings the league got this past season. As I said at the beginning of Rodger's off-season show, this was his last season and that was mostly dictated by the structure of his contract. Also, Lafleur is in his final year, don't think for a second that Gutekunst is not preparing for that too. The only question left is how big a teardown are the Packers willing to do before reloading, or more likely rebuilding. Nuts.... (sigh)

0 points
1
1
Lphill's picture

February 08, 2022 at 05:53 pm

Rodgers has been masking Lefluer’s flaws , if Rodgers leaves we will see the real Lefluer.

-3 points
1
4
BirdDogUni's picture

February 08, 2022 at 06:21 pm

Or, with AR gone, MaLF can truly run his system and we have basically the same results...

One thing I do know, is Jordan Love can lose to the 9'ers 10 - 13 just as easily as AR can, but for 1/30th the cost...

SMH

3 points
4
1
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

February 09, 2022 at 07:12 am

LP,
Undoubtedly, but fortunately MLF got 3 full seasons and playoffs of experience because of it. I remember all to well the 9 lost years with Bart Starr as coach. Should never have been hired in first place but by that 9th year he had become a very good coach and shouldn't have been fired.

2 points
2
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 11, 2022 at 10:26 am

Interesting. I have a poor memory so I have no opinion. Still, it is interesting.

0 points
0
0
stockholder's picture

February 08, 2022 at 06:48 pm

I guess were still coming back to moving Rodgers. Which is a Mistake. The player to move on from is Adams. And then there is the draft for replacement. So let me tell you what happens if you move on from Adams. They never again have to worry about the 30mil. Next The Smith, Amos and Turner could stay. Because Rodgers contract runs out next year. And reworking their contracts gives them money. The biggest mistake Gutey could make! Is drafting a guy to replace his free Agent class. He found them. He doesn't need to find their replacements in the draft. If they're done being here. He will find other veterans.!!! Leaving the solution for his draft this way. Burks is the only WR you take in the 1st rd. But the smart play is the DL. Yes KeKE must be replaced. The run on the WRS is in the 2nd rd. Draft 2 throughout the draft. He must replace Lowrey and KeKE. IT's been the problem; just as much as the special Teams.

0 points
2
2
jannes bjornson's picture

February 08, 2022 at 10:04 pm

Adams out the door seems a no-brainer. Rodgers with an annuity deal like Brady's. I would also keep the Smiths. Turner is a lot of cash for a RT. NEWMAN should be able to cover that spot, but with a Big question mark around Bhak's long-term recovery?? Maybe Turner makes sense. A WR by round TWO latest and bag a journeyman or two. They need two TEs brought into the fold via draft and FA. D line can be had in the third AND fourth rounds. Three heavies from the Georgia lineup alone. Amos is a guy they need to keep, Savage, not so much, move him. I do not believe in the Denver fantasy dealings. Should have been last year.

0 points
0
0
stockholder's picture

February 09, 2022 at 06:53 am

Three heavies from the Georgia lineup alone. The problem is we don't want to have slow run stoppers only. Perrion Winfrey won the MVP at the senior Bowl. Plays everywhere on the DL. The other is Leal- Texas -AM kid. Packer scouts like him.

0 points
0
0
jannes bjornson's picture

February 10, 2022 at 02:17 pm

They liked Keke also. This defense works best with four down linemen, or a five stack.

0 points
0
0
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

February 09, 2022 at 07:17 am

It is pretty simple....Rodgers stays if Adam's stays. Rodger's goes somewhere Adam's goes with him. All this Rodger's staying and reworking his contract is BS unless Adam's salary/cap hit is factored in. This IS NOT one or the other and why Rodgers made the statement he will wait till the Franchise Tag deadline.

0 points
0
0
BruceC1960's picture

February 08, 2022 at 07:30 pm

So 12 said after the season that he wouldn’t drag things out like last year. Wasn’t fair to the Packers or his team mates. Very honorable. Are we to believe he doesn’t know if he wants to play next year yet? Or does he want to stay with the Packers without Hacket, Getsy and probably Cobb and Crosby? I have a hard time believing he doesn’t know. Could this be a decision you just wake up one morning and think “ yes I think I want to play next year”? The team and team mates he cares about have a lot to do in the next month. New league year starts March 15?

-2 points
0
2
BirdDogUni's picture

February 08, 2022 at 08:59 pm

He said he's be on the Pat McAfee show and break the news before the end of Feb...

Be patient...

1 points
1
0
Grandfathered's picture

February 08, 2022 at 08:52 pm

Thanks for the article. You have strong arguments as to why a return of AR should not be desirable for the Packers. He's unlikely to take a discount; GB cannot match guaranteed money or contracts others can; and trade value isn't getting higher with time. Green Bay should not want an AR return, probably.

2 points
2
0
PhantomII's picture

February 08, 2022 at 09:20 pm

It has nothing about the Cap for me. 0-3 in the last 3 seasons Playoffs, still throwing to mostly one WR. This has been a roller coaster and I'm ready to get off this ride. I have Bashed the DC...the Defense over these years and Always the ST..And Always AR not just moving the chains. This Year the Defense played as well as one could ask. The ST imploded and so did our Offenses effort after an impressive initial drive. I have come to the conclusion AR needs to be surrounded by a near perfect team in order to function at a high level in a playoff game and if that's the case any top 15 QB could do better than what we have gotten these last 3 post seasons. I know this because I see where a QB could run it in for a win or see multiple 3 and out plays that have at least 2 other options to either make a first down or a TD that were missed or not even looked at. That's not gonna get it done. Time to move on

5 points
5
0
egbertsouse's picture

February 09, 2022 at 07:48 am

I’m totally tired of Rodgers; the drama, the whining, the victimhood, the Davante-vision, the droopy dog look, the man-bun, the playoff choke, the finger pointing, the funny hats at the Derby, the starlet girlfriends, Joe Rogan, the Groundhog Day seasons, etc.etc. Get rid of him, cap or no cap. If you would have told me ten years ago that I would like Brady better than Rodgers, I would’ve died laughing. But it has happened.

However, he will be here next season because Jake and Elwood only know one strategy, putting the band back together.

3 points
3
0
Difer's picture

February 09, 2022 at 12:08 pm

It was called the “Last Dance” because it was the LAST Dance. Unless Rodgers is hooked on Groundhog Day, he’s playing for another team (likely the Broncos) next season or retiring. Fortunately, we won’t have to deal with all the wishful speculation for much longer. The Packers will have to move on. GPG.

1 points
1
0