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Packers Mock Draft Monday 1.0
By Ross Uglem
Ross will provide a semi-weekly roundup of national mock drafts relating to the Packers picks. He'll also utilize Fanspeak's software to do a few mock drafts of his own. In 2019 the Packers will pick six times in the first four rounds, so those are the rounds that we will focus on.
This Fanspeak mock uses Steve (owner of Fanspeak)'s board and the difficult setting/algorithm.
There's basically no way this could have gone better. I get my top 5 EDGE guy in Burns to hopefully pair with a free agent addition of some sort. I also get Dalton Risner to play right guard very effectively and pitch in at right tackle if Bulaga misses a little time. Adderley is a legit C1 FS. Those are incredibly hard to find. I believe TJ Edwards could start next to Blake Martinez immediately. Hockenson redefines the TE spot in Green Bay. This draft would be a home run.
Roundup:
Kyle Crabbs - Draft Network - Jachai Polite, Risner, Dawson Knox -- hits all the major spots. EDGE, IOL and TE. These are fine players to put in these spots and I actually like Polite a little more than I like Burns, though I have heard some rumblings of character concerns.
Trevor Sikkema - Draft Network - Burns, Noah Fant - fant would be the opposite type of deal as Hockenson, even though they go to the same school and play the same position. Hockenson is your George Kittle type. Fant a younger Jimmy Graham/Evan Engram.
Todd McShay - ESPN - Montez Sweat, AJ Brown - this is a bunch of stuff I probably wouldn't do. The big guys often times have the worst ideas.
Dan Kadar - SB Nation - Clelin Ferrell, Brian Burns - now this is a guy after mine own heart. Kadar doubles up at EDGE, solidifying the position and proceeding with the rest of the draft with that spot emphatically checked off.
Ryan Wilson - CBS Sports - Deionte Thompson, N'Keal harry - I could let this one go. I'm not convinced about Thompson as a FS, and if you can't play FS I can't take you in the top 12. I need to do more study on him, but I didn't love what I saw against OU. N'Keal is a no from me, dawg. His lack of ability to separate gives me LaQuon Treadwell / Simmie Cobbs concerns.
Packers Draft Prospect Vid of the Week:
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Ross Uglem is a staff writer for Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter @RossUglem
Comments (61)
JonathanSpader
January 07, 2019 at 02:53 pm
Can't wait to see what Gute does with 6 picks in the first 4 rounds of the 2019 draft. GO PACK GO!
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edp1959
January 07, 2019 at 01:19 pm
Me too, so glad they didn't give it all away for Mack.
zoellner25
January 07, 2019 at 01:23 pm
CBS sports mocks "experts" have GB taking a WR at #12. LOL
Lphill
January 07, 2019 at 01:36 pm
Montez Sweat if available should be a priority. and I think he will be there at 12.
albert999
January 07, 2019 at 01:50 pm
o line o line o line
4thand1
January 07, 2019 at 01:57 pm
Here come the mocks already. This year would have flown by if it weren't for watching the slow funeral procession of a season. Just hope we land a stud edge rusher to contribute right away.
TKWorldWide
January 07, 2019 at 09:42 pm
I think that will happen.
Swigganz
January 07, 2019 at 02:06 pm
If Burns weighs in under 240lbs I would not touch him in the 1st round. He is very explosive off the edge...but I just don't think he'll be able to set the edge in the run game. I'd prefer to see GB take a bigger edge rusher like Clelin Ferrell, Montez Sweat or Jayron Ferguson and a D lineman such as Ed Oliver, Christian Wilkins, Zach Allen or a big O-lineman like Cody Ford, Greg Little or Jawaan Taylor... but we will have to wait and see what type of Defense we are going to run before we know exactly what we'll need. This offseason is going to be exciting! :-)
Bure9620
January 07, 2019 at 02:13 pm
Round 1 Pick 12: Oliver, Ed, DT, Houston (A)
Round 2 Pick 2 (S.F.): Burns, Brian, DE, Florida State (A)
Round 2 Pick 22 (IND): Edwards, David, OT, Wisconsin (A+)
Round 3 Pick 8 (BUF): Adams, Trey, OT, Washington (A)
Round 3 Pick 11: Gaskin, Myles, RB, Washington (A)
Round 3 Pick 22 (SEA): Mack, Alize, TE, Notre Dame (A+)
Round 4 Pick 12: Sills V, David, WR, West Virginia (A+)
Round 5 Pick 12: Fuller, Jordan, FS, Ohio State (A+)
Round 6 Pick 22: Connelly, Ryan, ILB, Wisconsin (A+)
Round 6 Pick 27 (LAC): Nordin, Quinn, K, Michigan (A+)
Round 7 Pick 9 (BUF): Russell, Dontavius, DT, Auburn (A+)
Round 7 Pick 12: Turpin, Kavontae, WR, Texas Christian (A+)
stockholder
January 07, 2019 at 02:26 pm
I believe I agree with you. But I can'y help think I would take a blue chip first. Regardless of Character. It didn't stop TT signing veterans, or free Agents, with issues. Especially if they were cleared. I would not pass on Williams at 12. And while some players look great. I still see the same things in these guys, I saw in Dix and Datone Jones. And is Polite another Alphonso Carrecker? Needs that failed. I still believe the packers would do better by drafting the strength of the draft. The Interior Line is where it's at. And it's strength! Mississippi had the #1 defense in the country. Not Clemson. The # 12 pick should have No Questions. You want a football player? You take Simmons. We have so many picks to fill need. I see Gute still staying with Mathews and Perry. So I'm not throwing my money down a wishing Well yet.
4thand1
January 07, 2019 at 02:39 pm
I was going to give you a dislike for sayin, "I see Gute staying with Mathews and Perry". It was my new years resolution to not hand out dislikes. Aw F-it, you're getting a dislike, resolutions never work!
TarynsEyes
January 07, 2019 at 02:52 pm
Any move by Gute in the draft that is done with the intention or actual retaining of one and resigning of the other,Matthews and Perry, should be taken as a sign of stupid is/ stupid does and that nothing has changed in the FO.
stockholder
January 07, 2019 at 02:57 pm
I'm getting use to them. But I still see a new coach rolling with them. Mathews stayed healthy. While others got hurt. Perry is under contract. Much rather keep them, then Cobb. You don't make a hole unless someone else can fill it.
TarynsEyes
January 07, 2019 at 03:16 pm
" You don't make a hole unless someone else can fill it."
You can't fill a hole with the reasons you have a hole...Matthews and Perry created the hole.
Lare
January 07, 2019 at 05:42 pm
Matthews is tied for the 272th ranked player in the NFL with tackles this season and the 91st ranked linebacker. Perry is the 472nd ranked player in the NFL for tackles and the 130th ranked linebacker. They're both so far down the list of players when it comes to sacks I didn't even bother to check their ranks.
If Gutekunst can't do any better than to retain below average players like Matthews and Perry at the OLB position he needs to be replaced.
TarynsEyes
January 07, 2019 at 09:14 pm
Exactly!
HankScorpio
January 07, 2019 at 10:10 pm
I don't agree with you all that much but we're on the same page with Matthews and Perry. It's time to move on from both.
JonathanSpader
January 07, 2019 at 02:52 pm
Come on 4th & 1 do you think stockholder WANTS Gute to stick with Perry and CM3? He put together a well thought out easy to read post with a name of in his mind a blue chip player in Simmons. I think Gute sticks with Perry and Fackrel and brings in support. CM3 will be resigned for the right price. How he is used depends on the new FO but he is still useful.
Rak43
January 07, 2019 at 05:13 pm
I personally think it would be wise to sign CM3 in the 3-5million range and insert him next to Martinez at ILB while upgrading the edge. Mathews can still run , tackle and probably blitz more effectively up the middle than outside while helping to stabilize the middle, especially if Burks doesn't pan out.
Lare
January 07, 2019 at 05:55 pm
I can't see re-signing Matthews for more than 2-3 million considering his lack of production. Add in some performance-based incentives in case he plays better than he has the last few years.
The Packers can't win as long as they keep overpaying under-performing players just because they're fan favorites.
CoachJV
January 07, 2019 at 08:50 pm
I don't think Clay would underperform if they put him in his proper position... ILB.
CoachJV
January 07, 2019 at 08:48 pm
Yup... Everyone saw that CM3 was very effective as an ILB. More effective than OLB easy. His effort is still top notch and he wants to stay. Offer him $5M on a "prove you still can" deal at ILB.
Handsback
January 07, 2019 at 03:04 pm
Was that video suppose to show the highlights of Burns or show a DE that had no impact on a game? I've watched FSU several times this year, and not once was I impressed w/ Burns.
I see that Ferrell has dropped some....he is the guy I would love to see wearing the green and gold. Watch him tonight, he will make a difference.
Ross Uglem
January 07, 2019 at 05:56 pm
It's not a highlight video. It's an entire game, which is how you should actually evaluate a player.
We're not watching the same player, and neither are the draft network guys. That's fine, though, to each their own.
Dude had 1.5 sacks in that game. What a weird take.
4zone
January 07, 2019 at 03:10 pm
At number 12, there WILL BE a #1 at some position besides punter or kicker left for us if we chose to go that way. Not a bad position to be in. Now all we need is for Phili to beat the Saints.
Guam
January 07, 2019 at 03:20 pm
I was watching the Chargers - Ravens game on Saturday and caught a glimpse of what might be the future for NFL defenses. The LAC played a four man defensive front and three safeties at linebacker. All guys in the 215-225 pound range and they could fly. Completely bottled up the Ravens for most of the game.
I wonder if the Packers shouldn't migrate in that direction? We already have Josh Jones and Oren Burks that fit the category at linebacker and Martinez is close. If we play to the strength of the draft and take pass rushing DE's (2 in the first 3 choices) and move Perry to DE, I think the Pack could get there pretty quickly given the D-line already in place.
Thoughts?
jeremyjjbrown
January 07, 2019 at 03:39 pm
I think the 220-235 lbs LB is a great concept. For 1 that's an undervalued body type right now. I want the Packers D to be able to use body types that 3-4 Blitzburg and 4-3 Cover-2 defenses don't need. Why? Because for the athletic profile they come cheaper as Draft Picks and Free Agents. It also allows you to have small faster safeties because they don't double dip in run support or cover huge TEs.
JonathanSpader
January 07, 2019 at 03:40 pm
Guam,
It worked against the Ravens because their offense is 1 dimensional. They run the ball through Jackson and company. That defense won't work against an offense like Atlanta for example. Defenses need to adjust to the offense just like offenses have to exploit defenses. It's not the future of the NFL. Capers adjusted to Capernick by talking to Dave Aranda about how to contain a mobile QB after we got humiliated in the playoffs by SF.
The wildcat formation, dual threat QBs, come and go. As TGR put it:
The NFL is a passing league
The NFL is a passing league
The NFL is a passing league
The Ravens were never going to get far in the playoffs. They had an elite defense and a floundering offense just like the Bears. Packers in 2019 had an average defense and a floundering offense. Which is how we wound up with a losing record. Injuries exasperated that.
Guam
January 07, 2019 at 06:01 pm
JS:
I agree the Ravens are one dimensional, but that defense would also be useful against the spread style passing attacks also currently popular in the NFL (fast LB's to cover RBs and TEs). The only offense the "light linebacker" defense wouldn't handle well is a heavy (fullback, TE's etc.) rushing attack of which there are very few in the NFL.
The LAC simply extended a concept that has been growing in the NFL (lighter, faster linebackers) and took it to its natural evolution. I wouldn't dismiss it just because it made its debut against the Lamar Jackson led Ravens.
I suspect that this defense maybe be the response to TGR's favorite maxim that the NFL is indeed a passing league.
JonathanSpader
January 07, 2019 at 08:38 pm
Guam:
Thanks for clarifying. Petting ran a lot of safeties instead of linebacker at the beginning of the year. It's been fascinating watching the NFL. Unfortunately, way too much of its evolution revolves around calls being tilted towards the offense. It makes playing defense next to impossible. Points not defense is what sells tickets.
Guam
January 07, 2019 at 10:00 pm
I agree about the offensive tilt and unfortunately, I am old school and like defense. My favorite game is a 21-17 thriller and I hate the 52-49 shoot outs that have become all too common.
jeremyjjbrown
January 07, 2019 at 03:33 pm
Todd McShay is just showing us how long you can coast in name rec at ESPN. I haven't read a thing from this guy in years that doesn't fail to understand the needs of the team in question.
JohnnyLogan
January 07, 2019 at 03:54 pm
Burns and Polite and Ferrel and Sweat... maybe one is far and away better than the rest... I'm not sure which, all are good but have holes. I think Gute trades down from 12 to around 18-20, gets an extra 2nd and still gets one of the pass rushers. Allows us to get a top TE or WR in the 1st two rounds. My only hope is he does go BBA. Fill holes in FA, takes best talent in draft.
Rak43
January 07, 2019 at 05:31 pm
I like the idea if Gute can nail his picks. I honestly don't give a shit where a player was drafted as long as he can ball. If they can grab another player at 18 or 20 or whatever, as good or better than Jaire then call me happy. Players at 12 aren't much different than players at 20-24. Most times there's an elite group of 7-10 players and the second tier falls right behind them at around 7-20/10-24 range. Just look at last years draft where Tremaine Edmunds , Derwin James, Jaire, and Leighton Vander Esch all went 16-19. I'm perfectly happy with any or all of them in Green and Gold. So grabbing an extra second rounder would be another savvy move by Gute if he can pull it off.
Thegreatreynoldo
January 08, 2019 at 11:38 am
I love this comment. Tiers are the way to think about the draft. As it happens, it sounds like this draft is loaded with defensive interior guys and pass rushers. Are there enough to make pick 12 more valuable than in other years? I am not a draft guru guy, but I wondered if tier 1A (often tier one = picks 1-3 plus any reach QBs, so maybe picks 1 through 5 or so) in this year's draft might not extend into double digits. History of the 12th pick:
Vea, DeShaun Watson, Sheldon Rankins, Danny Shelton, OJ Beckham, DJ Hayden, Fletcher Cox, Ponder, Ryan Matthews, Knowshon Moreno, OT Ryan Clady, Marshawn Lynch, Ngata, Shawn Merriman, Vilma. That's a pretty good group. I looked at the 18th pick, and while it was pretty good, there was a noticeable dropoff, imo. It is a bit of crapshoot: the history for draft pick #8 didn't strike me as better than #12. Here is a link to check by pick number: [still can't put in the full link but add the http and www stuff]
drafthistory.com/index.php/pick/18
CDC Dave Retired
January 07, 2019 at 04:15 pm
Jonah Williams, Jawaan Taylor, Greg Little, Dalton Risner, David Edwards, Michael Deiter
Beau Benzschawel, or Martez Ivey.
Two of these lineman must be selected in the first two rounds.
This is a passing league.
Aaron needs rehab on his injuries and possible knee surgery.
Jaypack
January 07, 2019 at 04:17 pm
The Pack must draft for need this year specifically on D and ST since Antonio Brown will bring us to the next level on O!
Doug Niemczynski
January 07, 2019 at 04:29 pm
Antonio Brown?
Rak43
January 08, 2019 at 12:26 am
I'd rather have Le'veon Bell to pair with Aaron Jones so as to not overload either, but to always have a dynamic RB on the field with Rodgers at all times. There were 2 offenses this year in GB, the one with Aaron Jones and the one without Aaron Jones. Having said that, neither is likely to happen.
Jaypack
January 07, 2019 at 04:36 pm
Yes, he is in cahoots with the Steelers and could make up for our pass on Mack.
JonathanSpader
January 07, 2019 at 05:01 pm
We didn't pass on Mack Gruden thought he would get a higher return from the Bear's 1st round picks than the Packers. If the Packers landed Mack it's possible the Packers would have been the 12-4 team and the Bears would have been 6-10. In that scenario the Packers could have beaten the Eagles. No way of knowing but it's not like the Packers passed.
Jaypack
January 07, 2019 at 05:04 pm
Sign Brown!
albert999
January 07, 2019 at 05:17 pm
LAFLEUR NEW HEAD COACH
Rak43
January 08, 2019 at 12:29 am
SACRE BLEU! ZEE VACKERS HAAV HYEARD LAFLEUR! AND LACY-LING IS ZHEALOUS!
packergal
January 07, 2019 at 05:18 pm
Chicago news radio station reporting that new Pack head coach just hired--Matt LaFleur. Did anyone/can anyone confirm this?
Rak43
January 07, 2019 at 05:40 pm
Ian Rappaport of NFL.com confirmed LaFleur is in GB finalizing a deal.
albert999
January 07, 2019 at 05:19 pm
yup it’s true
albert999
January 07, 2019 at 05:20 pm
nfl network just reported it
Rak43
January 07, 2019 at 05:36 pm
Now the huge Question is will LaFleur keep Pettine on as his defensive coordinator?
michaelturi
January 07, 2019 at 05:40 pm
Does anyone know if Cole Madison is wanting to play next year, or has his ship sailed?
Rak43
January 07, 2019 at 05:43 pm
Someone asked Ryan Wood that question today in his chat and he said he thought Madison's ship had sailed. He however also stated he though the Packers wouldn't hire a coach until the weekend or next week at the earliest.
Bear
January 08, 2019 at 12:08 am
Cole was rated as a special teams player or back up. Not a starter.
HankScorpio
January 07, 2019 at 07:59 pm
I've been playing on the fanspeak draft simulator too. And found that the NFLDraft board is...unique. That's the nice way of saying it has very different value for some players. I ended up with a draft of:
1. Josh Allen
1b, Dalton Risner
2, Brian Burns
3. TJ Hockenson
4. Antthony Ratliff-Williams
4b. Cody Ford
5. Nasir Adderley
6. Jawaan Taylor
6b. Jace Sternberger
7. Joe Giles-Harris.
I sort of cheated by looking at the entire draft board and mapped out Ford, Adderly, Taylor and Sternberger from 4b - 6b by taking them 40-50 spots sooner than the board suggested. And probably 50 or more spots later than they will actually go, if you believe other draft boards.
Thegreatreynoldo
January 08, 2019 at 11:43 am
That's a nice draft. A gentleman on APC has posted hundreds (he is probably pushing 500) mock drafts. For your mock, GB probably would need three first round picks, and probably three more second round picks.
HankScorpio
January 08, 2019 at 12:40 pm
I'm no where near 500 simulations but I've done my fair share of them. That one was the most outlandish result, which is why I shared it.
If you believe the general consensus of other sites, the board that let that result happen is either pure garbage or not updated from a pre-season watch list or something else. You might be under-selling the draft ammo required to assemble that group.
stockholder
January 09, 2019 at 12:13 am
Adderly is to low. He's first round/ early second. like Josh Allen. he should be gone with a combine. Don't like risner in rd. 1. Hoeckenson is a No from me. Ford is a no. Heck I better help you . 1. Allen by luck. 2. Nasir Adderley 3. Dalton Risner 4. TJ Hoekenson by Luck 4b Cody Ford 5. Anthony Williams. 6. jawaan Taylor 6. Jace Sternberger 7. Joe Giles - Harris. LeFluer is retaining Pettine. Gute is going to be predictable. -Gute= Deonte Thompson S, I prefer Simmons DT, Gute= Noah Fants TE I prefer trade -up for Polite OLB, But they say Adderley is good. #2. Gute= Dalton Risner I prefer- Jaylon Ferguson #3 Paris Campbell Wr /KR Agree but I traded up. I would draft #4 Lindstrom,OG Scharping OT/OG Both have not given up sacks!! #5 Alex Bars Injuries.
Packer Dave
January 07, 2019 at 08:17 pm
Gute' comments on Madison last year made it seem like they were pretty understanding of the situation, almost like a redshirt scenario. I don't know why his ship would have sailed, he was grading out as one of the best pass blocking tackles when he last played.
As for the draft I hope both Burns and Thompson are passed on. Burns will get locked down at the next level and Thompson seems like Haha 2.0. We are in a good spot to pick up an OL in the first three picks with hopefully a 4th round gem in the works.
Do they take a run at anyone in FA?
Bear
January 08, 2019 at 12:10 am
At 218 pounds Burns will get pushed around.
Qoojo
January 07, 2019 at 08:34 pm
1. Pass Rusher
2. OL
3. TE
They need to keep Rodgers clean. I would say get at least 3 OL with those first 6 picks.
I do have faith in Gute. I liked his draft last year.
Rick1
January 08, 2019 at 10:25 am
Burns Playing his hand on the ground and lack of functional strength is obvious. OLB is his position. Good bend and speed play reaction is concerning runs by ball carriers to much. Doesn’t give great effort when the play travels away and jogs to the finish. Not at 12 but maybe 32 I could live with.
Thegreatreynoldo
January 08, 2019 at 11:46 am
I see Burns mocked all over the place. I think a lot depends on his weight combined with his numbers at the combine.