Michelle's 53-Man Roster Prediction 1.0

Packers camp battles are heating up and there are going to be some difficult roster decisions to be made by the Packers. Here is my first shot at predicting how it will all fall out.

This week, fellow Cheesehead TV writer Ross Uglem published his second 53-man roster prediction, and as we approach the first game of the Packers' preseason I thought I would do the same. 

The Packers currently have a full 90-man offseason roster, and started training camp with six players on the PUP list: Jordy Nelson (knee), Sam Barrington (foot), Jared Cook (foot), T.J. Lang (shoulder), Corey Linsley (undisclosed) and Ty Montgomery (ankle).

Some worried that Montgomery would remain on PUP into the regular season. The second-year wideout recently shared details about the severity of his ankle injury from last October with ESPN's Rob Demovsky.

However, on Tuesday the Packers activated Barrington, Cook, and Montgomery off the PUP list after they passed their physicals, a promising development, as Montgomery and Cook need all the reps with Rodgers they can get prior to the start of regular-season action. 

NFL teams have to reduce their rosters from 90 players to 75 on the Active List by 4:00 pm ET on August 30. Final cuts down to the 53-man rosters on will occur on September 3 by 4:00 pm ET. 

Below is my current prediction for the final roster:

1  Aaron Rodgers  QB
2  Brett Hundley  QB
3  Eddie Lacy  HB
4  James Starks  HB
5  John Crockett  HB
6  Aaron Ripkowski  FB
7  Jordy Nelson  WR
8  Randall Cobb  WR
9  Davante Adams  WR
10  Ty Montgomery  WR
11  Jeff Janis  WR
12  Trevor Davis  WR
13  Jared Cook  TE
14  Richard Rodgers  TE
15  Justin Perillo  TE
16  Kennard Backman   TE
17  David Bakhtiari  OT
18  Josh Sitton  OG
19  Corey Linsley  C
20  T.J. Lang  OG
21  Bryan Bulaga  OT
22  Jason Spriggs  OT
23  JC Tretter  C
24  Kyle Murphy  OT
25  Don Barclay  OG
26  Josh Walker  OG
27  Letroy Guion  DE
28  Datone Jones  DE
29  Dean Lowry  DE
30  Mike Daniels  DT
31  Kenny Clark  DT
32  Mike Pennel  DT
33  Christian Ringo  DT
34  Clay Matthews  OLB
35  Julius Peppers  OLB
36  Nick Perry  OLB
37  Kyler Fackrell  OLB
38  Jayrone Elliott  OLB
39  Sam Barrington  ILB
40  Jake Ryan  ILB
41  Blake Martinez  ILB
42  Joe Thomas  ILB
43  Sam Shields  CB
44  Damarious Randall  CB
45  Quinten Rollins  CB
46  LaDarius Gunter  CB
47  Morgan Burnett  SS
48  Ha Ha Clinton-Dix  FS
49  Micah Hyde  DB
50  Chris Banjo  SS
51  Mason Crosby  K
52  Tim Masthay  P
53  Rick Lovato   LS

 

If a player does begin the regular season on the PUP list, the Packers could theoretically use that roster spot for Jared Abbrederis, who is the odd man out in this group of seven receivers that theoretically could make the roster, though the Packers won't keep more than six. Of course, the team would have to clear a spot for that player's later return at that time. 

Other things to note: Veteran Tim Masthay wins out again despite the team's attempts to bring in competition for him at camp. John Crockett rounds out the group of three halfbacks in part for the difference in his playing style to power rushers Lacy and Starks. If Brett Hundley remains injured, the Packers may need to keep a third quarterback in Joe Callahan to start the season. And finally, I waffle back and forth between keeping Don Barclay or Lane Taylor as a reserve lineman, but given that he's coming off a solid week of practice in camp, for now I'm going with Barclay. 

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Comments (57)

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NickPerry's picture

August 10, 2016 at 07:24 am

Both rosters have the Packers keeping 4 CB's, 5 if you count Hyde. I'd keep an extra CB or Abby instead of Barclay, Perrillo or Backman. I think the Packers 3rd TE is on another roster possibly because anyone under Cook and Rodgers just don't do much for me. JAG is really a compliment for our 3rd and 4th TE'S. YES, I know Backman has "Potential", but then you all swore up and down (Not all but you know who you are) that Bostick was going to do big, big things and had "Potential".....Errrrrrrr!!!!!

SO GLAD Monty, Cook, and Barrington are off the PUP List. Hot Damn!!!
....Monty went high to make a catch on a seam pass for a TD, Cook caught a 20 yard pass on the 3rd play of practice.... Ummm Cow???????

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Since'61's picture

August 10, 2016 at 08:47 am

Nick - we won't hear from Cow today. His predictions about Cook and Monty just went down the drain. I agree with you about Backman and the 3-4 TEs. Thanks, Since '61

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Bearmeat's picture

August 10, 2016 at 11:20 am

O COW COW WHERE ART THOU?? LOL!

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Spock's picture

August 10, 2016 at 09:30 am

I'd guess Cow is hosing himself down after "being on fire"!

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dobber's picture

August 10, 2016 at 12:43 pm

He got an antibiotic. That burning sensation will go away fast and he'll be fine...

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dobber's picture

August 10, 2016 at 12:44 pm

I'm sorry, Cow, but can you decide once and for all what counts, and whose opinion matters, and what the appropriate level of evidence is for any kind of assertion happens to be? It would make it much easier for the rest of us around here...

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Packer_Pete's picture

August 10, 2016 at 02:33 pm

hmmmm.... the last few years all i've heard from you is that you don't care about the regular season, only post season and the SB, as you're sick of them winning 10 -11 games and then going out soon in the playoffs. gotta make up your mind young man...

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Bearmeat's picture

August 10, 2016 at 11:21 am

LOVING THIS!!

I also agree. I have no interest in a 10th OL the caliber of Barclay. Nor do I have any interest in our 3/4 TEs. I'd rather have 7 WRs and keep Davis inactive this year.

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dobber's picture

August 10, 2016 at 12:41 pm

If the preseason ends with all of these WR ready to play and playing well enough to create a logjam, we can expect that someone like Allison or Davis will suddenly develop a mysterious "serious hamstring" or "nagging knee" injury that will land them on IR...

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Iain's picture

August 10, 2016 at 06:46 am

Pennel is suspended for the first four games.

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Packer_Pete's picture

August 10, 2016 at 06:50 am

Keep in mind that Pennel is suspended for the first 4 games, so that roster spot, at least in the beginning, will be going to someone else. I do think they'll keep one of the other young CBs and one less on O. If I had to guess, only one of Barclay or Walker on OL...

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NickPerry's picture

August 10, 2016 at 07:18 am

Or Ringo. From what I've read he's not doing much. Hopefully that changes once the games begin.

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stockholder's picture

August 10, 2016 at 07:30 am

I'll keep Abbey! McCray instead of Thomas.

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croatpackfan's picture

August 10, 2016 at 07:40 am

Michelle, TT signed 2 year contract with Lane Taylor this offseason. Now you are claiming that he will cut him? That will be odd. I think only battle for OL is between Barclay and Josh Walker...
Also, I see Jared in and Travor on PS...
Maybe ot will be interesting to consult Packers official depth chart before doing this lists... I know that this chart is very provisional, but can tell you how team see the competiotion at the moment!

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ray nichkee's picture

August 10, 2016 at 12:52 pm

I agree, taylor is a lock and I think walker is the odd man out.

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lou's picture

August 10, 2016 at 04:13 pm

I agree with coratpackfan, other than Tretter stepping in for Lindsley last season none of the other O-Lineman were even "competitive" as replacements for the starters but Taylor did more than hold his own in a couple of starts, he STAYS.

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Handsback's picture

August 10, 2016 at 07:42 am

Monty being healthy is a great plus for this team. (IMHO) I was afraid that his ankle was a lot worst and keeping him from playing most of the season.

Can Janis play another position like OLB/SS hybrid? His ST efforts are really good, but can he make the team as a ST only guy? His days as a WR seem to be dwindling.

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NickPerry's picture

August 10, 2016 at 04:52 pm

Listening to one of the shows on ESPN Wisconsin they were talking about Janis quite a bit. Considering he was one of the best "Gunners" in Football last season he should be safe. On the receiving end not so pretty. Rodgers threw to him 6 times and I think he caught one...maybe. They said at one point Rodgers had a look on his face that was like, "Is this guy EVER going to get it"?
In another interview Rodgers said really positive things about every WR. When he got to Janis he said "Jeff is developing". Almost as though he had to say something and that was really the best thing he could say without bashing him. Rodgers LOVES Abby, I'd be shocked if Abby goes anywhere unless he's injured.

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stockholder's picture

August 10, 2016 at 07:02 pm

If janis goes it will because of a fumbles. A-Rod may Love Abbey, but how does Abbey get off the bench? I have Monty and Abbey ahead of Adams. So who sits and who plays. Janis is the keeper because of special teams. Something they fired a coach over.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

August 10, 2016 at 07:46 am

No Datone Jones (costs $998K to cut). No McCray. No Abby. Pennel is suspended. Only 4 CBs. Lane Taylor costs $600K to cut. I'd say Taylor over Barclay or Walker, but I approve of 10 OL. One less TE, 1 less DL.

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NickPerry's picture

August 11, 2016 at 05:38 am

I agree, matter of fact when the contract was announced several people including myself could wrap their heads around he money he received. BUT when you look at the guarantee the money seemed much less offensive. :)

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Since'61's picture

August 10, 2016 at 08:43 am

Good to hear that Monty is back at practice. Does anyone have any info on Linsley and his undisclosed injury? I would like to see him back sooner than later. As for the OL I would keep Taylor over Barclay or Walker. With Pennel suspended for four games I would keep either Abby or McCray in his spot and see how they develop. Other than that this roster looks about right. Thanks, Since '61

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croatpackfan's picture

August 10, 2016 at 08:56 am

It looks like Abby is developing quite well. So what to do if Abby showes that he trully belongs? Cut Pennel?

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dobber's picture

August 10, 2016 at 08:57 am

As I understand, Linsley's injury is a hamstring issue that he developed either during, or just prior to, OTAs. I'm unsure of the severity...whether it's a pull and he keeps aggravating it, or if it's a tear.

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Since'61's picture

August 10, 2016 at 12:02 pm

Dobber - thanks for taking the time to let me know the status of Linsley. Hopefully it is not a tear. We should know soon. Thanks, Since '61

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Spock's picture

August 10, 2016 at 09:34 am

Since '61 it's not "an undisclosed" injury, he's got a hamstring problem. those can be tricky, hopefully he will be back sooner rather than later since, as a lineman, it's not as much an issue as, say, Hayward's. Finger's crossed.

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Since'61's picture

August 10, 2016 at 12:03 pm

Spock - thanks for taking the time to reply on Linsley. Agree fingers crossed. Thanks, Since '61

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

August 10, 2016 at 09:44 am

It will all come down to injuries. If (miraculously) no one is injured by the end of preseason, I think the team will try to trade a few players, quite possibly someone who is not at the bottom of the pecking order, especially from a deep position. For instance, I'd happily trade Adams or Janis or Elliott for a 7th round pick, Jones or Perry for a third, etc. The WR depth is unbelievable, and I'm a huge fan of Geronimo Allison; I think he can be what Adams was supposed to be.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

August 10, 2016 at 12:33 pm

" I'm a huge fan of Geronimo Allison; I think he can be what Adams was supposed to be."

From Practices alone?

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

August 11, 2016 at 07:25 am

Nope, not from practice alone. I've been interested in Geronimo ever since I watched his highlight video the day after we signed him: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGEd1UDjcjY Jarret Boykin is a good comparison--but that's not a negative--Boykin made the squad for several years and even got a lot of playing time when the team had some injuries. I think a more optimistic comparison is Marques Colston. Allison has fantastic body control and hands--look in the video at how poorly his QB threw the ball, yet GA caught them. He has adequate speed in the 40, but like many tall receivers, he has good long speed. If he can handle the playbook, I see him as a real asset, and as fitting what MM said the team needed: tall receivers who are a threat down the seam.

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dobber's picture

August 10, 2016 at 12:42 pm

I just don't have that kind of faith in Allison. Not especially fast. Not especially quick. Decent size. Good hands. We'll have to see if he can produce in preseason (although all of these guys will be hampered by the 3rd and 4th string QBs that will be throwing to them). There are a lot of Jarrett Boykins, oops, I mean Geronimo Allisons, out there who aren't in anyone's camp.

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lou's picture

August 10, 2016 at 04:10 pm

Trades are a rarity in the NFL, one of the reasons Ron Wolf retired earlier than expected was how free agency replaced making trades and the last time Thompson made a trade I believe was for Ryan Grant, a real steal for either a 6th or 7th round pick. Unfortunately for fans few trades are made and the ones that are usually do not contain a marque player.

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Oppy's picture

August 10, 2016 at 10:56 pm

names escape me, but Thompson had the ultra-rare player-for-player even up trade, involving Tony Moll to Baltimore for a back-up safety/ST guy.

Man, it bothers me I can't think of his name.

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Oppy's picture

August 10, 2016 at 10:57 pm

Derrick Martin.

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

August 11, 2016 at 07:30 am

I agree a trade is extremely unlikely; my point was that I would be happy to keep Allison and Abbredaris over Janis and Adams IF we could even get a 7th round pick for them. Another team might be very happy with that trade. We might miss Janis as a gunner, but there are a number of rookies/young players who might pick up the slack.

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Kyle Graham's picture

August 10, 2016 at 10:43 am

I would prefer the packers look toward the waiver wire for a third running back. I mean am I the only person who doesn't feel very excited about John Crockett?

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staffordsneckfat's picture

August 10, 2016 at 11:20 am

What don't you like about Crockett? Seems like a fairly small sample size, so its hard to say one way or another.

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Kyle Graham's picture

August 11, 2016 at 01:47 pm

I just am not a fan of the measurables he brings to the table. I would prefer a 3rd running back who is lightning quick. That would be a nice change of pace back who could get 3-5 carries a game

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

August 12, 2016 at 10:27 am

Crockett does not have an outstanding physical trait. He is pretty big, but not as powerful as Lacy. He has some burst, but not as much as Starks. He is big enough to pass pro, but isn't as good at it as Lacy. He can catch the ball, not as well as Lacy but better than Starks. He is the Perillo of RBs. Many of us would like a scat back for a change of pace. Crockett isn't that.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

August 10, 2016 at 10:55 am

Keep on disrespecting Abby....

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Oppy's picture

August 10, 2016 at 10:59 pm

Perhaps time will make me out as the fool, but I don't recall so many CHTV writers being so uniformly off-the-mark on a player as they currently are about Abbrederis.

I simply do not get it... On rosters that are WR heavy, I can't imagine Abby not -easily- securing a spot, unless he's injured..

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DrealynWilliams's picture

August 11, 2016 at 01:05 pm

I'm with you. I've been saying from the jump if there's a fight for the 6th WR it's between Janis and Davis.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

August 10, 2016 at 12:49 pm

Random: Damn, I thought we had it bad with injuries. Poor Bills.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

August 10, 2016 at 12:58 pm

A Tweet from Ryan Wood: "Now Allison jumps over three #Packers defenders in back end zone, catching his second TD from Aaron Rodgers. Watch out for him in preseason."

WTF!!?? Lol.

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PETER MAIZ's picture

August 10, 2016 at 01:02 pm

I always read Michelle because she knows football much more than me. I suppose Geronimo will be safe at PS. I know they don't want to lose him (?). And it seems that Janis still can't do a thing as a wide receiver. I think it's an indication of some sort of "mental block".
One question: Do the Packers really need 4 tight ends(?). This seems odd to me.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

August 10, 2016 at 01:07 pm

No, but Coach MM loves that position.

"You never have enough tight ends. ... We ask a lot of our tight ends. It's a unique athlete."

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L's picture

August 12, 2016 at 11:54 am

53 Man Roster Prediction -

QB:
Aaron Rodgers
Brett Hundley

RB:
Eddie Lacy (HB)
James Starks (HB)
John Crockett (HB)
Aaron Ripkowski (FB)

WR:
Jordy Nelson (X, Z)
Davante Adams (X)
Jeff Janis (X)
Randall Cobb (Z)
Ty Montgomery (Z)
Jared Abbrederis (Z, X)
Trevor Davis (X) - he's a major bubble guy as his spot probably depends on his special teams returning ability; meaning, I could see the team electing to keep ILB Joe Thomas, or TE Kennard Backman, or two UDFA DBs instead of just one, or perhaps even keeping Christian Ringo on the 53-man roster after Pennel's return which would regulate Davis' position on the 53-man roster as more or less temporary.

TE:
Jared Cook
Richard Rodgers
Justin Perillo

OL:
David Bakhtiari (T - LT)
Bryan Bulaga (T - RT)
Jason Spriggs (T)
Kyle Murphy (T, G)
Josh Sitton (G - LG)
T.J. Lang (G - RG)
Josh Walker (G, T) or Don Barclay (G, T) - I'm leaning toward J.Walker as I think he may be the better Guard.
Lane Taylor (G, C)
JC Tretter (C, G, T)
Corey Linsley (C)

DL:
Letroy Guion (NT, DT)
Kenny Clark (DT, NT, DE)
*Mike Pennel (DT, NT) - misses first 4 games
Mike Daniels (DT, DE)
Christian Ringo (DE, DT) - I'm thinking the only real reason he makes the 53-man roster is because of M.Pennel's 4 game suspension; he's currently my top guess for getting cut to add Pennel after he serves his suspension.
Dean Lowry (DE)
Datone Jones (EE, DE)

LB:
Julius Peppers (EE, OLB - Jack)
Nick Perry (EE, OLB - Jack)
Jayrone Elliott (OLB - Jack)
Lerentee McCray (OLB - Jack or Sam)
Kyler Fackrell (OLB - Sam)
Clay Matthews (ILB - Mike, OLB - Sam or Jack)
Sam Barrington (ILB - Mike)
Jake Ryan (ILB - Will or Mike)
Blake Martinez (ILB - Will or Mike)

DB:
Sam Shields (CB)
Damarious Randall (CB, Slot, SS)
Quinten Rollins (CB, Slot)
LaDarius Gunter (CB, Slot)
Robertson Daniel (CB, FS), Josh Hawkins (CB, Slot), or Makinton Dorleant (CB) - a.k.a. the "token" UDFA addition for 2016-17
Morgan Burnett (SS)
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (FS)
Micah Hyde (SS, FS, Slot)
Chris Banjo (SS, FS)

K:
Mason Crosby

P:
Tim Masthay

LS:
Rick Lovato

Practice Squad Prediction -
QB Joe Callahan - I'm guessing he wins out over Williams.
WR Geronimo Allison (may need to keep fingers crossed) - I think he's a lock for the PS as long as the Packers can get him onto it.
TE Kennard Backman - I could envision a scenario where he makes the 53-man roster over J.Thomas and T.Davis, but Thomas cannot be kept around on the PS which is partly the reason why I elected to place Backman here; nevertheless, their special teams play will factor in huge as to who the team elects to keep on the 53-man roster.
OLB Reggie Gilbert - probably dependent on how much pass rush success he flashes during pre-season.
C Matt Rotheram - I think his addition to the PS has everything to do with whether the Packers feel comfortable with Lane Taylor as an emergency fill-in at Center; if they do then they may elect to use Rotheram's spot on the PS for someone else.
- one, if not two, of the losers between the UDFA CB battle for making the 53-man roster: Josh Hawkins, Makinton Dorleant, or Robertson Daniel.
- possibly a Safety between Kentrell Brice, Marwin Evans, and Jermaine Whitehead, but that might be if they don't elect to keep two of the losing CBs I mentioned above who're battling for a spot on the 53-man roster.
- possibly an ILB given the Packers wouldn't be able to keep Joe Thomas around on the practice squad.
- probably a DL, but I'm not sure if it'll be B.Price or D.Anderson or someone they pluck off of waivers; nevertheless, I think C.Ringo could end up here after Pennel's 4 game suspension.
- probably a RB, but I'm not sure if it'll be B.Ross, B.Burks, or A.Squirewell or someone they pluck off of waivers.

*When Pennel comes off his 4-game suspension I'm not sure who'll get cut from the 53-man roster, but I'm guessing it'll be between Christian Ringo or Joe Thomas (or K.Backman or T.Davis if they're on the 53-man roster instead of Thomas). Ringo should still have Practice Squad eligibility so that means the Packers could still potentially keep him around.

<> I assume that ILB Joe Thomas is perhaps the main bubble guy since he can't be kept on the Practice Squad. The decision to keep him on the 53-man roster probably has everything to do with the Special Teams play between him, WR Trevor Davis, TE Kenneth Backman, and an UDFA CB. I've currently chosen to say J.Thomas doesn't make the cut, but I wouldn't be very surprised if he did.

<> I assume the Packers are ready to move on from Demetri Goodson given his 4 game ban and questionable growth over the previous two years, but I could be wrong and perhaps after his four game ban is served he'll replace whoever the (or one of the) UDFA CB(s) is/are that made the 53-man roster.

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Colin_C's picture

August 10, 2016 at 02:55 pm

I agree with most of this, but don't sleep on Robertson Daniel. I think the 5th CB comes down to a battle between him and Hawkins. Also, Pikula was waved I believe. Keep an eye on Derrick Mathews for that last ILB spot. He could surprise some people.

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L's picture

August 11, 2016 at 04:17 pm

Oops... I missed that Pikula was released two days ago. Thanks for that heads-up. Guess I'll need to update my Practice Squad prediction.

I'm looking forward to watching the depth guys play during the pre-season games. Several very interesting battles for the back-end of the 53-man roster and for earning a spot on the Practice Squad. I'll keep my eye on Robertson Daniel.

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dobber's picture

August 12, 2016 at 08:03 am

I'm a Rob Daniel fan. If he's got his head on straight (which apparently has been his biggest problem) he could be a surprise...and a playable asset.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

August 11, 2016 at 01:40 am

Love the differentiation you provide in your analysis of the specific position played by each player. You did an excellent job, L.

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L's picture

August 11, 2016 at 11:33 am

Thank you.

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

August 12, 2016 at 07:04 am

Almost exactly my current prediction and for almost exactly the same reasons, though I have my doubts on Thomas, Ringo, and Walker. Martinez, Matthews, McCray, and even Fackrell, make Thomas unnecessary. Tretter, Murphy, and Taylor make Walker unnecessary. Ringo just hasn't shown enough to me--maybe he's better now, but I haven't seen it. Depending on how big a splash T Davis and Geronimo make in the preseason, they are excellent PS candidates.

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dobber's picture

August 12, 2016 at 08:05 am

Part of what we need to remember for the OL and OLB positions (which could both take major hits this offseason due to expiring contracts) is that they're not only going to be managing the roster for 2016, but also 2017. I think that's easier given that much of the backup talent is pretty young and cheap. So a guy like Walker, who has apparently looked decent in camp, is someone they might want to keep around not so much based on what he could be in 2016 (since you're hoping not to need him), but because he could be a key backup in 2017...which can help save your draft picks.

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Oppy's picture

August 10, 2016 at 11:01 pm

Random question- what happened to Goode? Did he never recover from injury? Is he still under contract? Did he get waived?

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dobber's picture

August 11, 2016 at 03:28 pm

I think he's out there as an FA. Supposedly Lovato has been ugly in camp, spurring discussion of bringing back Goode if his knee is right.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

August 11, 2016 at 01:47 am

Goode sustained an ACL injury in December, only 8 months ago. Apparently he has not recovered - not surprising, actually. He is not under contract. He is not on the roster. He was about to become an UFA in 2016. GB put him on IR, but he is a FA now because his 3 year contract expired.

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2016/02/24/long-snap...

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