Let the board come to you: 2022 not the Draft to trade up

Don't expect the Packers to be overly aggressive in the 2022 NFL Draft.

The Green Bay Packers currently hold 11 picks in the 2022 NFL Draft, including five selections in the top 100. Brian Gutekunst has the ammunition to essentially do almost anything he wants next weekend.

Gutekunst has been partial to a trade or three during the draft, especially on night one, but this could be the year the Packers sit back and let the board come to them.

The 2022 Draft is viewed as a tremendously deep class, partially due to the number of prospects who delayed leaving college after a COVID-19-interrupted 2020 season. It does not however boast an insane level of can’t-miss talent likely to be picked in the top 10 or 15 selections.

It would be somewhat surprising if Green Bay made a true splash move and traded up into the top 15, as they could probably get a player of almost identical quality at 22.

This is especially true since some of the Packers’ primary positions of need are ones which can be addressed later in the draft.

Of course, there will be a litany of wide receivers chosen in the first round, but the wideouts who appear to fit Green Bay’s preferences at the position, such as George Pickens and Alec Pierce, may well be available on day two. If a tight end is selected in the first round by any team, it would be a surprise.

With the Packers also picking towards the back of the first round at 28, there may even be an opportunity for Gutekunst to trade back, whether it be for additional picks in 2022 or future drafts. Could a QB-needy team look to trade back into the first round to get their guy?

Green Bay might be ‘all in’ on building a roster to win championships right now, but it is still doubtful there will be much change to their draft philosophy as part of that goal.

Gutekunst will be trying to simply draft good football players who will hopefully have long, fruitful careers as Packers, regardless of the short-term aspirations of the team.

The Packers GM will of course be desperate to win a Super Bowl before Aaron Rodgers rides off into the sunset, but he would also probably like to still have his job in a decade, and his job is to look after both the short- and long-term interests of the team. It’s why he has been so reluctant to give away future draft picks.

Gutekunst may have his favourites on day two or three, and that is where he could be more aggressive and target specific players, but in general, don’t hold your breath for any crazy trade ups from the Packers next weekend, and fully expect the team to trust their board and let the talent fall to them.

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Mark Oldacres is a sports writer from Birmingham, England and a Green Bay Packers fan. You can follow him on twitter at @Marko7LW

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11 points

Comments (102)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Tbills93's picture

April 24, 2022 at 12:10 pm

Aggressive trade up approach that turned out to be a bust last year should not mean we need to pump the breaks this year. Win now mode, be aggressive- Replace Davante and add depth to WR core further. It’s mandatory

-19 points
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Renllaw's picture

April 24, 2022 at 12:23 pm

What trade up approach was a bust last year? They stayed put and got Stokes. A plus starter for us most of last year.

12 points
13
1
Bitternotsour's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:31 pm

my biggest hope is Gutekunst uses the draft as a sort of metaphoric middle finger to the meddling hall of fame quarterback. go ahead Gutey draft the injured bama wideout, then take 10 straight picks on defense.

let the good times roll.

-3 points
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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

April 25, 2022 at 04:24 pm

Your bitterness is sad to see. You think Brady doesn't meddle? He probably got Arians fired. You think Peyton didn't meddle? Hall of Fame QBs should meddle when they have the football IQ to support it. And this one certainly does. You're not getting anywhere in today's NFL with a strong defense and ground game. You need a talented QB at the helm that can test and stretch defenses. We've got that. Why middle finger him?

1 points
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NoNonsense's picture

April 24, 2022 at 05:23 pm

Think he means Amari Rodgers, he's the only one they traded up for.

Gute might wanna use pick 92 to move around in the first 2 rounds or use it to aquire more picks for day 3 because it might be his worst round picking players since he got the GM job.

1 points
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:40 pm

Quite frankly, I don’t think for one second Brian Gutekunst believes trading up a few spots to select Amari Rodgers was a mistake. I don’t believe he thinks Josiah Deguara was a mistake. Further, he’s bright enough to not create a problem where one doesn’t exist.

Burks? Yes. Sternberger? Yes. The other two, no.

Aaron Rodgers did Amari Rodgers no favors last year, shaking a good player’s confidence by ignoring him.

Wouldn’t you look to insure your next R3 pick is money? Try to right that ship, rather than run from Round 3 altogether by trading out of it, compounding negative perceptions? Exhibiting fear? That’s not leadership.

Every GM in NFL history has had his misses. I’m sure Gutekunst is aware of fans perceptions regarding Round 3, and I’d imagine he will face the challenge head on to turn that around. Time to make it really work with the most solid choice(s) he can make, just like in any round.

Every pick is important.

(Bob Newhart voice): “I’m sorry. Well… no… I…uh, I can’t take your R3 in trade. No… Yep. Yep. That’s correct. How about a 4, a 5 and… and, two 6s? What, w-what do you mean you don’t have two 6s…?”

I may have had a couple albums…

0 points
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HarryHodag's picture

April 24, 2022 at 01:17 pm

Trade away a bounty of draft picks to get a rookie you don't know is going to pan out? They don't need to be aggressive at all to find good players at positions of need.

9 points
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Irish_Cheesehead's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:27 pm

Always an option, but not mandatory for a smart GM.

-1 points
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Since'61's picture

April 24, 2022 at 12:13 pm

This topic has been thoroughly discussed here at CHTV and I think we pretty much have a consensus that the Packers should either stay with their existing draft slots or if anything trade down to get more picks from the second and third rounds.

Speaking for myself I have been advocating for the Packers to either stay put or trade down. I would prefer that they do not trade up. However, we never know what Gute might do.
Thanks, Since ‘61

22 points
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WestWi_Packfan's picture

April 24, 2022 at 12:24 pm

More picks? We already have 11 and there is no way that they have that many roster openings to even accommodate what we have, much less add more rookies who wont make the team or contribute in their first year. They may very well not trade any away but adding picks is not happening IMO.

-2 points
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Lare's picture

April 24, 2022 at 12:38 pm

Good point, with so many picks Gutekunst may be trading up to maximize quality over quantity. The one variable to this may be how much action Gutekunst takes to specifically target players that can improve the Special Teams.

4 points
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Since'61's picture

April 24, 2022 at 01:04 pm

Lare - I admit that I am not a draftnik but from what I have read about the upcoming draft the Packers can get the same value player at #22 as they could get if they trade up into mid/high teens. That trade would cost them at least 2 picks and maybe 3. Why do that if the value is not there? There is probably a player in the top 10 who could be worth the move up but at what cost to our draft capital?

We have 5 picks in the top 100. That is pretty good shape to be in for any draft. If we trade down from #28 and pick up another 2nd round pick and a 3rd round pick that would give us 6 picks in the top 100 with probably very little drop off in available talent.

I'm not saying that the Packers must trade down I'm just saying that if Gutekunst sees an opportunity to get the same player in the 2nd round as he would at #28 he should make the move assuming that he finds a trading partner which is not always the case. It will come down to how the draft falls relative to his board.
Thanks, Since '61

10 points
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murf7777's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:15 pm

61’. I think you could say that about most drafts. I do hear folks say that year in and year out. Once you get past the top 15 of any draft there seems to be a lot of players with similar talent thru 45. I have to agree with some who feel quality is more important than quantity in this draft. Trade up or trade down but I suspect we will see no more than 10 drafted.

1 points
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Packer_Fan's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:20 pm

I say trade down 1st round and 4th/5th rounder to get low 2nd and third rounders. No more picks, but higher value picks. So get six picks in the first three rounds.

2 points
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WestWi_Packfan's picture

April 24, 2022 at 07:32 pm

That would be fine in a rebuilding year, but with that many rookies on your team, which veterans are you going to cut and how does adding 13 rookies fit the "win now" direction the Packers appear to be going?

-4 points
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Renllaw's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:23 pm

So you are saying the bottom 13 players of the roster wouldn't be in a fight for their jobs if we got 13 rookies into camp? I think the below players would either be replaced, or benefit from the competition the additional rookies would bring in.
in.

Chris Blair
Shawn Davis
Dominique Dafney
Kabion Ento
Innis Gaines
Tipa Galeai
La'Darius Hamilton
Jack Heflin
Alizé Mack
Michal Menet
Vernon Scott
Ty Summers
Kiondre Thomas

13 points
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Since'61's picture

April 24, 2022 at 12:53 pm

Absolutely correct! Thanks, Since '61

4 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2022 at 01:49 pm

Might be a few more too. The aim is to increase competition. In addition, extra picks give more flexibility to get who you want later.

4 points
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dobber's picture

April 24, 2022 at 01:46 pm

Agreed. Every team has guys who are replacement level (and below) peppering the bottom half of their roster. With the ability to protect PS players, most teams aren't afraid to ship raw draft picks off to the farm to develop...Packers have done this the last couple years. It's not just a 53 anymore.

5 points
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Johnblood27's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:15 pm

90 come to camp no matter how many get drafted there will be NINETY players competing for roster spots.

Would you rather have draft selections from the 2-3-4 round of the draft or UDFA's?

If you would take less draft picks, thanks for playing, here is your pointed hat and have a safe trip home.

4 points
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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 24, 2022 at 07:23 pm

You beat me to it, Renllaw, except you forgot to add the "holes": Davante Adams, Zadarious Smith, MVS, EQSB, Lucas Patrick, Tyler Lancaster, Chandon Sullivan, Oren Burks, Kevin King, and Lucas Patrick., AND the injured reserve of Elgton Jenkins, Kylin Hill, and Bob Tonyan. Those ALONE are 13 positions!

8 points
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Since'61's picture

April 24, 2022 at 12:52 pm

West Wi - Why? If they don't believe they have a solid value pick at #28 or if they believe they can get the same/similar value pick in the 3nd round why not trade down from #28 and try to get another 2nd round pick and a 3rd rounder? Even a 2nd and 4th round pick can work out in the Packers favor.

The number of roster opening is irrelevant. The team should be trying to get to the best possible 53 roster players and PS players regardless of whether they come from the existing roster, the draft or FAs. The more picks that we have increases our opportunities to add depth to the roster and to possibly select a player who is better that someone on the current roster. If nothing else we can improve our STs while simultaneously developing the players over the next 2-3 seasons.

The only maximum number is the number of players that can be brought into TC, which is 93. I would prefer to have as many players as possible from rounds 1-5 come into camp than fill up the camp with UDFAs or 6-7 round players. I would be very surprised to learn that there is an NFL GM who would not want more picks than they currently have, whether they 7, 9, 11, 14 or more picks. Thanks, Since '61

14 points
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 01:11 pm

100% Since’61. It really will depend upon who they’re staring at, but, there is a ton of great talent to be had R2-3. All it takes is one of those high R2 teams to completely covet one player they believe to be out of reach. Those teams might want to maneauver ahead of their own division rivals, or have intel another team will take their prize.

3 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 01:33 pm

I really want the Jets 35th and 38th picks. Not sure how Gutey will get there, but those two picks could be huge.

3 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:02 pm

Well there is one trade we could do to get them and maybe more …

5 points
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MainePackFan's picture

April 24, 2022 at 06:33 pm

That ship has sailed CW :)

2 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:18 pm

Too obvious a berth not to dock in

2 points
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:54 pm

Bird, here are 4 trade scenarios I was just F-ing around with…

28 to NYJ for 35 111, 146
28 to NYJ for 38, 111, 117

22 to NYG for 36, 67

22 + 53 + 92 (1296) to KC for 29 + 30 + 135 (1298.5)

2 points
3
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BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:07 pm

As long as we're ahead of duh bares at 39, I'm happy! ;)

2 points
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greengold's picture

April 25, 2022 at 05:05 am

Exactly what I was thinking. Staying ahead of CHI is always a great move.

Every year I do this in studying drafts, usually towards the end, just screwing around. I’m just late to the party this year for a number of reasons. Do the maths on different trade possibilities to position us in areas that seem talent loaded, or to minimize long stretches without picks, etc. Just for kicks.

Do you want a lot of picks this year?

Imagine if Gutekunst worked trade downs with the last pick in each multiple pick round… R1 28, R2 59, R4 141. There’s big talent in this draft going all the way back. Instead of 11 players, we would probably wind up with around 17. We’d likely realize 4 R3s in this scenario, and still wind up with 2 R2s & R4s, but with better picks and we’d cure that R6 drought.

More swings in a deep draft might be good for us, allowing us to draft Crosby’s replacement guilt free.

I’ve explored recent 7 round mocks, and I can safely say there’s AT LEAST 6 different players that I’d love to take at 93, all great players. Rounds 2 and 3 are insanely loaded, as is R4-5… Packers could make some serious hay here in multiple trades down.

1 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:37 pm

22 and 59 for the Jets 35, 38 and 117 would be a pretty equitable trade.

4 points
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WestWi_Packfan's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:30 pm

Why trade away a 22 or 28 to get the extra 2nd round picks? Why not package a 3rd & 5th rounder or something like that? I think they can still get talent with those 1st round picks that they wont find in the 2nd or 3rd rounder, may not be at WR but but other positions too. Plus the team seems to be looking at a Win now type of scenario and if you have a team with too many rookies and not the right balance you could be hurting your win now chances by having to wait for rookies to learn first. Then again I guess you never know, depends on how well they can scoop up players that could help you now, although most of them would be in the first round.

1 points
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dobber's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:42 pm

Because the 3rd and 5th gets them...a little higher 3rd.

If they package their 3rd and both 4ths, they barely touch the bottom of round 2.

2 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:12 pm

You might want to check out who they lost this off-season. They easily have room for 11. 3 of those are 7th rounders that are basically lottery picks.

3 points
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Titletown222's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:07 pm

If you look at our current roster AND our roster for 2023 you will see we have plenty of room for 11 draft choices: 3WR, 2OT, 1-2 Edge 1G, 2 Safeties, CB, DL, RB, LB 1-2, TE 1-2. Our depth is not great. We could easily replace many of our depth players ESPECIALLY when they play a majority of our special teams. I feel confident all players we draft in the top 200 make this team. And, as always 2-3 UDFA will likely make the team.

1 points
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Return_To_Sanity's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:56 pm

I wouldnt be so sure of that. Packers are lacking depth at quite a few positions: oline, receiver, safety, linebacker, and could use as many good depth/ST players as they can get.

2 points
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Barnacle's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:12 pm

Gute “the gunslinger” will make trades to show his brilliance and stones.

The gurus will say “reach” or “he did not have to trade up for him” . He will not trade down. Gute’s ego is too big and I am sure he thinks he can out smart Belacheck and Schneider(both smart enough to trade down more than up).

I love the draft, but Gute makes me nervous.

-12 points
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Return_To_Sanity's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:57 pm

Yeah man, hes really outsmarted himself with those 3 straight 13 win seasons.

2 points
2
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Leatherhead's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:19 pm

Stay put or trade down.

“More is better”

—-She

2 points
4
2
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:51 pm

Lol!

Agreed!

1 points
1
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Reghamster's picture

April 25, 2022 at 05:44 am

I think Gutey will not feel the need to draft 11 players. The Packers needs are for 2 WRS, 2 OL, 1 S , 1 TE 1 and possibly ILB and 1 DL . They might like to add some picks for next year. I also would be happy if they could snag a WR like McLaurin for a couple picks. Then possibly see about adding a few higher picks later. Draftniks always seem to think all needs can be met with this year's draft. The reality is only a few start and some hang around and contribute later and some get cut . 8 good picks that might have a chance is plenty. There is the burden that Wrs won't have a long window to improve before Rodgers leaves. So 1 vet and a good rookie WR ( who can return ) added would be a best case scenario.

1 points
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jhtobias's picture

April 24, 2022 at 01:04 pm

I agree to a point but if they feel there is more value in the 2nd and third rounds come the 28th pick why not ? I really hope Gute completes this defense using the draft in my humble view they can really take the last step into becoming a top 5 unit :

Disagree all you want but pick 22 if available Nakobe Dean : solves the biggest weak link on the defense Krys Barnes and also gives you a man who can cover wr, te, smartest man in the draft , and eliminates the need for the star position since he can thrive in it when needed imagine him and Campbell in the middle my gosh . Quay walker who you might be able to get at 53 is also a great choice.

Another Dlineman early in the draft : Lowrey while a good rotational piece should not be making 8 million and to get a better player than him and save 5 million by releasing lowrey would be huge sorry dean business is business unless he wants to accept a paycut

a third edge rusher which can be had late 2nd third t=round in this draft and maybe even latter .

Yes they need a wr and also olineman depth but 11 picks shoudl do it .

4 points
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 01:18 pm

Solid, jhtobias. Many needs. Many routes to employ in order to fill those. None involve losing picks in trade ups… not in a draft this deep.

5 points
7
2
Littlejim51's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:59 pm

I cannot wait to see how Gutey puts his pieces of this puzzle of a draft together. The packers have so many possibilities to go up and or down and still keep their original 1&2
Thursday cannot come soon enough

4 points
4
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davekenya's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:21 pm

Gutey has options and will see how the round 1 board develops as players go off the board.

If the good old 'need matches value' at 22 or 28, he may stay put and draft BPA - at any of our high four position needs.

If need/value don't match up and there's a trade partner, it makes great sense to slide down into round 2 and an added mid-rounder.

I would not be surprised to see Gutey moving a LOT in round 2 if he sees lots of value there -- meaning trade down from round 1, but also maybe package 58 and a round 3 or 4 and move up higher into round 2.

Again, it will all be based on how the players are falling -- even Gutey doesn't know that right now. It's fluid.

He also may have one or two tentative trades already lined up ('if our guy is there at your pick 58, we'll trade you Diantae Johnson for pick 58' -- that kind of thing) that are not public. And these tentative trades already in place may not develop if the trade partner's guy isn't there at our pick. BTW...I'm not advocating for Johnson, just using it as an example.

I don't know about the 'all-in' thinking. It seems to make more sense to stock up on round 2-4 players who could provide very good value over the next 3+ years rather than bundle and move up (especially in round 1). To me, 2 to 3 round 2-4 WRs have at least as good if not better chance of 'hitting' with GB than a mid round 1 or pick 22 WR and a guy in round 5 would.

5 points
5
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NitschkeFan's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:40 pm

I'm guessing the "all-in" proponents want a stud WR in the first round.

Unfortunately it doesn't seem like there is that unquestionable stud in this year's crop. I recall the opinions were very high on Calvin Johnson (2nd overall pick in 2007) and Julio Jones (6th overall pick in 2011). Even as great as those players were, using a top 6 pick on a WR is still a questionable move.

I haven't seen that type of consensus on any of this year's WR prospects. So for the "all-in" crowd, there isn't a particular player to go all in for. So pick multiple guys and increase your odds of success.

9 points
10
1
Johnblood27's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:46 pm

for a Nitschke fan, you are pretty smart...

2 points
2
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:55 pm

I’ve got a Ray Nitschke H. O. F. 1978 autographed football from him in my lounge here… sitting right in front of me. Man, I loved that guy. Just a great soul. Helluva player.

2 points
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Reghamster's picture

April 25, 2022 at 05:51 am

I think Gutey will be eyeing per usual an Edge and Safety early on as good ones are harder to come by later . I imagine the two Big Ten Edges and Daxton at safety would be good guesses for his 1st picks if he doesnt trade for a vet WR. Of the receivers I think Pickens or Olave or Burks are all possible candidates if available but he won't reach for them. I could see trading 28 if possible to get a Pickens and maybe Woods at TE.

1 points
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Dzehren's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:34 pm

If GB does trade up, I see a potential trade with the Chargers as they don't have a 2022 2nd round selection.
The Chargers hold the 17th pick.
The Pack have to come away with a safety, DT, OT, Edge, WR & TE in the first 4 rounds.

I'm beginning to wonder how involved Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon & Deguara will be in the passing game?

1 points
3
2
dobber's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:54 pm

At this point, with the roster the Packers currently have, I think AJones catches 80 passes in 2022. That would likely make him the team's receptions leader.

3 points
5
2
Littlejim51's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:01 pm

Aaron Jones will be WR #1 regardless of this draft

3 points
5
2
Minniman's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:42 pm

Great point re the strategy of the draft, select as many players as possible that will have long, successful NFL careers. The objective is to fill the active roster - not the practice squad or the waver wire. Filling immediate needs via the draft is a bonus that shouldn’t be counted on.

7 points
7
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SpikeHyzer's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:59 pm

So wrong for so many reasons, not the least of which is that the Packers only have roster and cap room for about 8 or 9 rookies next year, which is about their average for rookie signings (making it even more unlikely that they trade down for future picks alone, unless their guy happens to fall to them on the first pick).

They almost certainly have to trade up to get their guys in the 1st round, and they could get elite talent at both WR and EDGE in the 1st round. It would be well worth it to trade later picks--even both 4ths--to move both 1st up significantly because they absolutely DO have to go all in with Rodgers next year and maybe for one more after that. The future IS now and those 2 elite players can also be part of the real future after AR is gone.

Trading up is absolutely the right move, even if they are letting the board come to them--as all teams must--and it's very unlikely that the guy or guys they covet most will both fall to them.

The only way they should trade down is in the unlikely scenario in which they do get at least one guy they like early without trading up and can somehow garner some more 2nds by doing so.

And while I don't agree with the analysis at all, the writer of this piece needs to get a dictionary or learn to use Google. It's absolutely NOT a litany of good WRs in the draft. Maybe he was thinking liturgy but that too would have been wrong. There could be a plethora or an abundance, but there certainly isn't a "series of religious petitions" of WRs in this draft (not that the 2nd definition of "tedious recital" works either, as there won't be that many WRs chosen in the 1st and no true fan would find such a small amount of information tedious)! Litanies in church are WAY longer than the list of WRs drafted in the first round. They go on forever.

-10 points
2
12
Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:10 pm

There is as much roster room as we choose. It’s the off season and plenty of ability to free space. As to cap, that doesn’t matter till they sign and we have room for these picks. If we can inquire about Deebo we can sign a dozen first contract types.

The use of the word litany also isn’t that much of a stretch. If he means an oft repeated list of names, I think that comes within the bounds of usage. Certainly a lot of the same names have been repeated as if by rote. Isn’t that the crux of the term outside of the narrow canonical usage?

2 points
3
1
SpikeHyzer's picture

April 25, 2022 at 05:17 pm

Why bother drafting 11 players if 3 will be so bad that they get cut?

Far better to trade those bad picks in the 4th--will they be ST players at best?--to move up in the first. NO pick is ever exactly traded for its value. Someone said that the 4ths would only move the Pack up 1-2, but if the team drafting 17 (or 15 or 18) has few picks and wants more, they would be willing to take one of our 4ths and the 22 and the Pack gets value beyond the rating of the 4th. It happens every year to numerous teams. We could move up 5 spots with a pick that is supposed to be worth only 1 or 2 spots.

It's a huge stretch, because, as I said before, a litany REQUIRES the list to be VAST and VERY LONG.

Considering that the 10 year average of first round WRs is 3.8, that is a very short list.

It's not how often the list of names is repeated (if that's what he meant he clearly does not know the definition of the word). It's how LONG the list itself is. A list of 57 is a litany. A list of 12 is not. The crux of the term is the length of the list itself, not how often it is repeated.

And a list of 4 is very short indeed, so far from being a stretch it's just flat out wrong usage.

1 points
1
0
LLCHESTY's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:26 pm

So they lost 4 O linemen and 3 DBs that got snaps last year. Where do you want the other 2 picks to go?

0 points
0
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BradHTX's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:45 pm

“It would be well worth it to trade later picks--even both 4ths--to move both 1st up significantly”

Problem with this is, the two 4ths are worth 40 and 36 points, respectively. That’s enough to move each 1st round pick up 1-2 spots. In order to move both up “significantly,” it would require combining the 1sts with the 2nds, which could get them to 13 and 16.

But in this deep draft, those 2nds are more valuable where they are than the increase from 22 and 28 to 13 and 16. This is not a top-heavy draft. If 16 is the cut-off from 1st tier to 2nd tier players (subjective), and the cut-off from 2nd to 3rd tier is somewhere around the end of round 3 (again, subjective), they will have a stronger roster getting 5 2nd tier players (2 top, 2 middle and 1 bottom) than adding 2 bottom 1st tier players and 1 bottom 2nd tier player.

4 points
5
1
dobber's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:46 pm

I'd augment that to say "second tier PROSPECTS". There are going to be plenty of guys who are evaluated on that second tier who are going to outplay players on the first tier. You've just gotta find them...

1 points
1
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SpikeHyzer's picture

April 25, 2022 at 05:11 pm

Immaterial on every count.
Their specific worth is meaningless. If the Pack sees a player they desperately want at 17, and the team holding 17 wants more players, they will take the 22 and a 4th for that pick.
And when considering elite talent, and considering drafting positions of need, moving up just 1-2 spots can make all the difference.
NO NFL draft pick is EVER traded for its exact value.
I never said they should trade the 2nds. They absolutely should not.
However, EVERY draft is filled with trades that should only move a team up 1-2 spots but actually move them up 3-7.

I don't agree that this is a hugely deep draft (partly because it's maybe the worst QB draft in history).

And the 4ths simply don't have any real on the field value to me. Mediocre players for ST at best.

1 points
1
0
Johnblood27's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:56 pm

look up...

metaphor
hyperbole

literary devices, they work.

0 points
1
1
SpikeHyzer's picture

April 25, 2022 at 05:04 pm

To this English Master's degree holder it didn't.
It was poor usage, a stretch at best and wrong at worst.
He's a bad writer, but he's a worse analyst.
The Pack needs to trade up.

0 points
1
1
Johnblood27's picture

April 25, 2022 at 06:44 pm

So I guess that you feel he is worth every last cent he gets paid for his content here?

In my best Vic voice... Would you like a refund?

0 points
0
0
Turophile's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:08 pm

I completely disagree with the idea of letting the board come to you.

That is not to say I want to see a panicky trade up, because you lack faith in your board. What I DO want is the will to position yourself at a point where many of your favourite picks sit.

In this case I think that round 2 is the place to be, Early for Tyler Smith, Winfree, Pickens, Hall, later for Pierce, Cameron Smith, Mathis, Paschal.

For example, you could trade down with the Jets (22 for 38, 69), or the Texans (22 for 37, 68), or Seattle (22 for 40, 72 and an exchange of 4th rounders) to name but a few. I also disagree that trading up is the only way to go, It is picks 35-65 that matter the most, imo, and you trade up and down to get as many as possible.

I do not subscribe to Spike_Hyzer's idea (see above) that the Packers can only support 8-9 drafted players. They could take 12 if they wanted. I'd expect 9-10. It could be less, but not because they cannot fit them in the team. Get as many round 2 picks as you can.

9 points
10
1
Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:15 pm

The issue in trading down might be finding a partner. Since I do not see a likely scenario where a must have top ten player falls within 4 spots of 22, I havnt overly concerned myself. Never say never, it could happen and Gute may have a different board. Overall, partner willing, the more likely scenario seems to be to trade down in the first or into the second and use the capital to strengthen mid round options and possibly move to grab a player we really want later.

1 points
2
1
LLCHESTY's picture

April 24, 2022 at 05:22 pm

The QBs could slide and might get some teams interested.

4 points
4
0
Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2022 at 06:13 pm

Good point. Fingers crossed

1 points
1
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LLCHESTY's picture

April 24, 2022 at 06:57 pm

Tony Pauline said he thinks 24 players have solid first round grades and then there's not much separating 25-90. He has Willis and Corral in his top 24 but Pickett probably goes by then too. I heard a guy on the radio say basically the same thing so maybe that's generally the consensus. Ridder seems like he's getting some push lately too. Fennell had a bit on him the other day that was kind of interesting. He said Ridder stays very cool and calm in the pocket but his accuracy comes and goes whereas Pickett almost looks frantic at times but is the more accurate QB.

1 points
1
0
Turophile's picture

April 25, 2022 at 06:39 am

When did you ever, ever, hear of a draft that had MORE than 32 players with 'first round grades'. This whole idea of labelling 20 or so players with first round grades is frankly meaningless.

You might just as well select your top 20 players in any draft and just declare "These are bona-fide first round picks". So what is pick 21 then, chopped liver by comparison ?

Now if you want to say "I have 20 players with a grade of (for example) 82/100 or higher, that's fine, BECAUSE IT DOESN'T TIE A GRADE INTO A ROUND. Draft guys need to express themselves better.

2 points
2
0
BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 07:39 pm

Or, it could be like 2011, Jake Locker at 9, Blaine Gabbert at 10, Christian Ponder at 12... (LMAO)

If I was a GM, I'm not sure I'd take a QB in the 1st round this year. Willis or Ridder? Maybe. Pickett is Gabbert IMO... Corral? IDK. No sure things, that's for sure.

They just took Trevor Penning at 22 in the NFL NETWORK LIVE MOCK DRAFT.

1 points
1
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BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 07:48 pm

Bucky Brooks just took Quay Walker at 28 in the NFL NETWORK FINAL LIVE MOCK DRAFT... Lol

1 points
1
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Turophile's picture

April 25, 2022 at 04:29 pm

They aren't awful picks.................but to me the best choice is trading down with (at least) one of the first rounders, into round 2. Of course you have to find someone willing to trade up (hello Jets, Giants, Texans, Seahawks).

0 points
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Handsback's picture

April 24, 2022 at 07:20 pm

That is always the case where a team falls in love with a QB and trades up to get one. I seem to remember a late first round pick that happened with the Packers not very long ago.

2 points
2
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Leatherhead's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:18 pm

Numbers. Good. I can understand numbers.

We can afford as many as we want, since only the Top 51 salaries count against the cap. Anybody beyond that....and that would include the practice squad....doesn't count.

By my count, without any change in injury status, we have most of the starters that we'd
need on the gameday roster but we could certainly use 5 offensive players (WR, OL, TE, RB , and OL again) and 3 defensive guys (Edge, Safety, DL)

I would like to do a few smaller trade downs so that our 8th pick is at 132 or higher. Multitudes of posters here would have no trouble finding good players in that area, especially with 8 picks. All of them would make the gameday roster, many would start.

8 picks between 22 and 132. I'll take that and smile like the butcher's dog.

3 points
4
1
greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:38 pm

Ha, it could get interesting. Depending on the specifics, there’s a chance we could remain happy with those 6 we have. I can’t wait to see what we did after ESPN returns from commercial break midway through KC’s Pick #30…

2 points
2
0
SpikeHyzer's picture

April 25, 2022 at 05:06 pm

The point isn't the cap so much as the roster space.
Why bother drafting guys in later rounds who won't make the team? Pointless.
Much better to trade those picks to move up, even if it's only a few spots. When talking elite talent, 1 or 2 spots is significant (or for the position of need).

0 points
1
1
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:59 pm

Tur,
Agreed!

Those 2nd picks, particularly from 33 to 45 are where those top players are available. Where the best WRs after round 1 will go!

1 points
1
0
LLCHESTY's picture

April 24, 2022 at 05:26 pm

This one turned out weird. Not sure if the WRs will be instant producers besides getting Velus some manufactured touches but maybe by mid season they can be contributing.

28.
Lewis Cine
S Georgia

36.
Travis Jones
DT Connecticut

53.
George Pickens
WR Georgia

57.
Nik Bonitto
EDGE Oklahoma

59.
Alec Pierce
WR Cincinnati

95.
Jelani Woods
TE Virginia

112.
Josh Paschal
EDGE Kentucky

132.
Braxton Jones
OT Southern Utah

140.
Velus Jones Jr.
WR Tennessee

171.
Micah McFadden
LB Indiana

173.
Eyioma Uwazurike
DT Iowa State

228.
Kalon Barnes
CB Baylor

249.
Andrew Ogletree
TE Youngstown State

258.
Chance Campbell
LB Mississippi

2023 CIN 4th

4 points
6
2
BradHTX's picture

April 24, 2022 at 07:00 pm

I did a VERY similar draft myself, minus the trade down from 22:

22. George Karlaftis, Edge
28. Lewis Cine, S
53. George Pickens, WR
59. Travis Jones, IDL
92. Greg Dulcich, TE
132. Alec Pierce, WR
140. Matt Waletzko, OT

Only went through the 4th. Bonitto is an Edge I love in the 2nd if things fall differently. I’d prefer Logan Hall over Jones, but he went right before I picked at 59. I like Woods as well as Dulcich, and he was available, which was a coin-flip. Pickens and Pierce are my dream WR combo, and Pierce falling to the 4th seems too good to be true; I expected to get someone like Romeo Doubs.

-1 points
0
1
LLCHESTY's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:57 pm

I don't think Jones falls below 40. Wouldn't surprise me if he goes in the first. I'd be happy with Jones, Winfrey or Hall. The pickings at DT get pretty slim after that to me. Mathis is a good run defender but his 7 sacks last year was a mirage, he only had 12 hurries and 25 pressures all together.

-1 points
0
1
BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:14 pm

22: R1 P22 OT Trevor Penning - Northern Iowa
28: R1 P28 EDGE Boye Mafe - Minnesota
53: R2 P21 S Lewis Cine - Georgia
59: R2 P27 WR Christian Watson - N. Dakota St.
92: R3 P28 TE Jelani Woods - Oklahoma St.
132: R4 P27 WR Velus Jones Jr. - Tennessee
140: R4 P35 WR Romeo Doubs - Nevada
171: R5 P28 LB Troy Anderson - Montana St.
228: R7 P7 DL Eyioma Uwazurike - Iowa St.
249: R7 P28 OT Obinna Eze - TCU
258: R7 P37 OT Ryan Van Demark - UConn

0 points
1
1
BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:24 pm

I wish...

Round 1 Pick 28: Boye Mafe, DE/OLB, Minnesota (B+)
Round 1 Pick 30 (K.C.): Devin Lloyd, ILB/OLB, Utah
Round 2 Pick 18 (K.C.): DeMarvin Leal, DT, Texas A&M
Round 2 Pick 22: Lewis Cine, FS/SS, Georgia (A)
Round 2 Pick 28: Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
Round 3 Pick 28: Alec Pierce, WR, Cincinnati
Round 4 Pick 28: Jamaree Salyer, OG, Georgia
Round 4 Pick 35 (COMP): Brian Robinson, RB, Alabama
Round 5 Pick 28: Abraham Lucas, OT, Washington State
Round 7 Pick 7: Kalon Barnes, CB, Baylor
Round 7 Pick 28: Pierre Strong Jr., RB, South Dakota State
Round 7 Pick 37 (COMP): Tyquan Thornton, WR, Baylor

0 points
1
1
BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:40 pm

22: R1 P22 EDGE Jermaine Johnson - Florida State
28: R1 P28 DL Devonte Wyatt - Georgia
53: R2 P21 S Jaquan Brisker - Penn State
59: R2 P27 WR Alec Pierce - Cincinnati
92: R3 P28 LB Troy Andersen - Montana State
132: R4 P27 TE Cole Turner - Nevada
140: R4 P35 WR Erik Ezukanma - Texas Tech
171: R5 P28 OT Braxton Jones - Southern Utah
228: R7 P7 RB Zander Horvath - Purdue
249: R7 P28 WR Romeo Doubs - Nevada
258: R7 P37 WR Dareke Young - Lenoir-Rhyne

0 points
1
1
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:00 pm

Would really like Bonitto on Pack!

1 points
1
0
NickPerry's picture

April 25, 2022 at 05:44 am

IF the Packers had THAT draft, I'd be doing backflips. Nothing weird about that draft friend!

-1 points
0
1
K-Town262's picture

April 24, 2022 at 05:43 pm

Remember when the Bears had Khalil Mack & Roquan Smith in the 2018 season opener, and injured Rodgers?

Packers should mimic that on defense.

0 points
1
1
Ferrari-Driver's picture

April 24, 2022 at 07:00 pm

Some of us still feel the pain of passing on T. J. Watt to trade back and draft Kevin King. I can still remember the anxiety during that draft hoping that no one would grab T. J. in front of us and the let down when we didn't grab that Wisconsin Badger player who I thought would be a solid Packer for 10 years. He turned out to be much better than I had even expected or hoped he would be. Another one we passed on that I felt almost as good about was the safety, Derwin James who was drafted by the Chargers after we passed him by. The Packers traded that 14th first round pick to New Orleans and I expected we would draft James, a player who I thought may have Hall of Fame talent. We did trade later to get back into the first round and drafted Alexander who has been a super player for us so far, so it wasn't as big a loss as it was missing on T. J. Watt. Guess those General Managers get the big bucks for a reason and guys like me can sit back after the fact and whine when things don't work out as we hoped.

4 points
5
1
stockholder's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:14 pm

Aj Hawk is why they stayed away from TJ Watt. And they needed a CB. My hope is they don't stay away from Chenal. He's a football player. And I think just as good as Hawk and Watt.

-1 points
2
3
PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 25, 2022 at 06:04 am

I "picked" TJ Watt for the Packers that year, but with much trepidation. He had a history of missing a lot of time with injuries--that's why he dropped. What really killed me was we picked King, who was one of the guys I really DIDN'T like in that draft.

I was ecstatic when Derwin James dropped to us--I had him at something like #3 on my Big Board; I thought he was EXACTLY what the Packers defense needed. I couldn't believe we traded down. :-( We did get Alexander, but James has ALSO had an excellent career. Much like when I picked Brian Burns over Rashan Gary: Gary is very good, but Burns has been just as good.

3 points
3
0
LambeauPlain's picture

April 24, 2022 at 07:21 pm

Sit tight and if the first round selections are diluting your round one board, trade down.

Those 1st rounders have added value with their 5 year contracts.

Gutey could pick a few pockets at 22 or 28.

3 points
3
0
BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:00 pm

Watching THE FINAL LIVE MOCK DRAFT on the NFL Network...

Bucky Brooks took Trevor Penning at 22.

Then he took Quay Walker LB at 28... (I call BS...) ; )

Boye Mafe went the next pick to KC... (29)

The Treylon Burks. (30)

Andrew Booth at 31...

Sam Howell at 32. Lol

1 points
1
0
PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 25, 2022 at 05:56 am

Walker at 28 is the kind of "surprise" that I expect a lot of in this draft. I fully expect BG to do a few of those to us. :-D He'll probably be right.

I think Howell at 32 actually makes sense. There is a lot of Baker Mayfield to him, and Mayfield was the overall #1 pick. Howell is the kind of QB who MIGHT end up being a huge success. Someone is probably in love with him.

1 points
2
1
ImaPayne's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:42 pm

This has been a fun time for all and most of us have read,listened, analized the crapola out of every scenario. Based on that the gen consensus is probably stay put. There are plenty of receivers to fit our needs and edge and ilbs as well, don't have to go get em.
Some are saying drop down but the problem with that, at 28 your almost in the second round talent anyways. no one wants that late a pick. there is no advantage. I say stay put and be ready for with a bag of names for each pick taking the best player that fits our needs.
One last factor, money. we have the highest paid player in football eating up cap space. Maybe a decision was made, can't afford 11 new guys, if so Gutt moves up and gives picks away. No football decision but a financial one instead.

0 points
1
1
BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:31 pm

We can afford 11 new guys. If Gutey were to trade 22 or 28 to a team wanting a QB, we might make out like bandits. If he can't because he can't find a trade partner, I'm all for taking all of our picks right where they are. I don't think this draft is going to go like many think it will.

It will be like every year though in the fact that some guys will rise and some will fall, many for reasons we won't know, but will speculate about nonetheless.

Hopefully, we get lucky and some things go our way this year. Ought to at least be entertaining.

5 points
5
0
PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 25, 2022 at 05:50 am

You're forgetting the HUGE value of that pick 28: the fifth-year contract option. Teams HIGHLY desire getting expensive players--especially QBs--with that option. Coincidentally, this year's QBs fit into the late first/early second BPA slot.

That's why the best move, this year, in my opinion, is to trade #28 to a QB-seeking team.
It probably would get the most bang for the buck to wait until draft day, see which QB drops, and which team is interested. at that time. My preference would be to trade for that team's 1st-round pick in 2023 plus their second-round pick this year. I think a QB-hungry team might go for that, and we'd make out like bandits on the trade value. It might be a true win-win as a trade, which makes it a real possibility. They get a five year rookie QB, we get a slightly less valuable pick this year, (in a deep draft almost EQUAL--so it's like getting a FREE 1st round pick!) and a first-round pick next year (a QB-rich draft if we want to get a 5-year rookie QB ourselves).

3 points
3
0
stockholder's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:47 pm

I can see trading up. Especially if that player is elite. Especially if there is a need. Especially if the guys behind, won't amount to a hill of beans. But if you look at it like they already traded up. Then stay put. Size won't matter. Gute must approach this draft like Free Agency. The guy who waits. Loses!!. But not if he reaches! And thats the only way to go this draft. Reach for the player you want. The Difference maker. BPA doesn't work this year. Why? Because the WR cupboard is bare. The Edge needs Back-up. And to avoid problems down the road. Target that player earlier then normal. GAMBLE! I want to change this offense for years to come. The Tip off! I don't feel the defensive players are better than the Offensive. REMEMBER. THERE is a Reason a Player DROPS. So I'm for; getting the player that will be here to stay.

-2 points
3
5
stockholder's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:51 pm

What works. The packers have been connected to most of theses players. Austin is the only guy who isn't. But he's just so fast. No body can stop him.
#22. Christian Watson. WR ND State
#28. George Pickens. WR Georgia
#53. Logan Hall ER. Hou.
#59. Leo Chenal. LB. WI
#92. Calvin Austin. WR. Memphis
#132. Matt Waletzko OT ND State
#140. Matt Araiza. P/PSD State
#171. Tycen Anderson S Toledo
#228. Dane. Belton. DB Iowa
#249. Dominique Robinson DE Miami(OH)
#259. Kyron Johnson. LB Kansas

-4 points
1
5
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:57 pm

Rodgers dropped....

1 points
2
1
golfpacker1's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:51 pm

No Trades Up!! It just wastes picks that could get us really good mid round players. #28 is a perfect spot for someone to trade back into first round and give us the farm. How about we hose someone this year by trading down from 28 about 10 picks. We get an extra 3rd and a 4th or 5th. It get us the safety and tight end we need without missing out on DT,OT,WR in 2nd and 3rd. I laughed when someone said we could only afford 9 picks. By drafting better cheaper talent we could draft 15 if we had the opportunity.(i would be happy with 12) Draft Logan Hall-trade Dean Lowry-save $5 million and get a pick. Draft Cade York late-cut Mason Crosby-save $4 million and fix special teams. See where I am going with this. Draft Damone Clark-Trade or cut Devondre Campbell next year-save $15 million. Draft Zyon Mcollum and trade Alexander before you have to pay him $20 million a year. Probably get back a 1st and 3rd rounders to boot.
My other idea Kadarious Toney, Denzel Mims , NKeal Harry are not wanted by Giants,Jets and Patriots. They are available for mid round to late round picks. All 1st round underused talents playing with bad quarterbacks. Rodgers could make them stars. The first two were Packers draft crushes in 2020 and 2021. Why not now for cheap.

-1 points
2
3
GregC's picture

April 25, 2022 at 07:21 pm

I've read dozens of mock drafts, and none of them has even mentioned the possibility of the Packers moving up in the first or second round. This is in spite of the fact that the Packers have a lot of ammunition to do so, and they are one of the more talented teams in the league and have a win-now mentality with an aging QB. They are just the kind of team that might target a potential high-impact player and trade up to get him. Every year, some teams, often including the Packers, fall in love with certain players and trade up to get them. These are often surprise picks--players who were not thought of so highly in the mock draft echo chamber. So if the Packers feel strongly enough about a player that they think it's worthwhile to trade up for him, I say go for it.

0 points
1
1
greengold's picture

April 25, 2022 at 07:57 pm

It’s funny you mention this, Greg, as I was just thinking about this idea earlier today: Which players would provide the greatest impact in an R1 trade up..?

My first thought was Safety, Kyle Hamilton. Saw him mocked at 11 this morning at ProFootballNetwork. If he should somehow drop to HOU at #13, it might be worthwhile to spend 22 + 53 to make it work. 1150 points exactly.

Hamilton, intercepting a pass by Carr - for our Packers - one intended for Davante Adams, to preserve our last second Super Bowl win is the stuff I’m here for. 100%.

That would not suck…! ;-))))

1 points
1
0
GregC's picture

April 26, 2022 at 05:17 am

I've seen Ohio State WR Chris Olave touted as the perfect player for the Packers with the #22 pick, because of his precise route running, but I've also seen him projected to be taken several spots earlier. He might be a candidate. He's smaller than what the Packers usually prefer at WR, though.

0 points
0
0