Jaxon Smith-Njigba NFL Draft Prospect Profile and Scouting Report
Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba Scouting Report for the 2023 NFL Draft
By markoldacres
Name: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
School: Ohio State
Year: Jr
Position: Wide Receiver
Measurables: 6’1”, 196 lbs.
Combine: Vertical- 35.0”, Broad- 10’5”, 40-yard dash - 4.48, Shuttle - 3.93, 3-cone - 6.57
Stats:
Courtesy of Sports-Reference.com
General Info:
Smith-Njigba was born in Dallas, Texas and attended Rockwall High School, where he excelled on the gridiron. As a senior, he had more than 2,000 receiving yards and 35 touchdowns. He was named a five-star recruit and ranked as the fifth-best receiver in the country.
Despite offers from Notre Dame, Nebraska and Ole Miss, Smith-Njigba committed to Ohio State where he spent three seasons.
After appearing seven games as a freshman, he exploded in his sophomore season, starting all 13 games and racking up over 1,600 yards and nine touchdowns.
Unfortunately, Smith-Njigba was unable to follow up that production in his junior year. Due to a hamstring injury, he was only able to play in three games of the 2022 season.
Smith-Njigba is a younger prospect, having only turned 21 in February.
Positional Skills:
Strengths
As a pure route runner, Smith-Njigba stands out above the rest of this year’s receiver class. He gets in and out of breaks with ease, can stop on a dime and use head fakes to make defenders guess wrong.
He navigates zones extremely well and already runs a fairly extensive route tree. The former Buckeye also shows an ability to beat corners off the line and does not mind taking the fight to them if they want to get physical.
Smith-Njigba is a fluid athlete and can gear up and down effortlessly. After participating in the combine and his pro day, he recorded an 8.56 Relative Athletic Score out of a possible 10.
He particularly excelled in the agility drills, scoring in the 99th percentile for receivers in the short shuttle and the 98th percentile in the 3-cone.
In terms of his ability to catch the football, Smith-Njigba shows he can pluck the ball away from his body when required. He had no issue making grabs over the middle and through contact, a requirement for playing in the slot, where he is primarily used.
Weaknesses
A criticism of Smith-Njigba could be that he was mostly just a slot receiver at Ohio State. There is nothing from a size standpoint that would prevent him from playing on the perimeter, he just wasn’t asked to do it much.
Much has been made about his perceived lack of long speed. Smith-Njigba did somewhat allay concerns at his pro day, running an unofficial 4.48, but he is not a home run hitter who can blow the top off a defense.
While he has capable hands, Smith-Njigba can be guilty of ‘body catching’ at times.
There were instances where he was disrupted too easily by physical coverage, although this was more apparent in 2022, which was an injury-marred season for Smith-Njigba.
Smith-Njigba is not a plus blocker, but he has some experience and gave good effort when asked to get involved.
His lack of production outside of the 2021 season could also give evaluators pause.
Fit with the Packers:
Smith-Njigba could be seen as a unicorn for the Packers. He meets their size thresholds but also has the insane agility to make him a real threat from the slot.
It is not easy to find receivers who have both of those qualities and Green Bay has usually had to sacrifice the latter in favor of the former (E.g., Amari Rodgers).
The Ohio State receiver has the potential to make an immediate impact from the slot and serve as a perfect complement to Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs.
While it would be a departure from precedent for the Packers to select a wide receiver in the first round, Smith-Njigba makes a compelling case and could well be a target for Green Bay at pick 15.
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Mark Oldacres is a sports writer from Birmingham, England and a Green Bay Packers fan. You can follow him on twitter at @MarkOldacres
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Comments (73)
Lootstone
March 26, 2023 at 03:20 pm
To me JSN is like speculating on a 2021 version. Another reason why I let him go in the draft. Sure his buddies say he was better than them, but are they just saying that because they know he got hurt last season and are just supporting their former teammate?
All we really know is that when Ohio was full strength, he was amazing. Every defense had to worry about all 3 of those 1st round WR though, so how good was he really?
He should absolutely be a great slot receiver option who seems very reliable. A young, efficient, slightly taller Randall Cobb, maybe?
I wouldn't be upset if he fell to 15, same with Johnston, just not my top target for round 1.
PackEyedOptimist
March 26, 2023 at 03:35 pm
Good summary Loot.
I’d be okay with the Packers taking him, if that’s what they want. They took Amari, so they seem to value a pure slot…
I think it’s dependent on how much Love would target him; he threw to the middle of the field more than Rodgers did, so maybe?
Lootstone
March 26, 2023 at 04:06 pm
Yeah, I'm not a route expert, but I can't imagine this guy couldn't help cause chaos in the middle.
2010 Packers were quick slant routes all day and it just ate up the clock and field like no other. I wonder why I stopped seeing that. Assuming LB and cover safeties just became that much more aware? Maybe that's why defenses are running more Nickel and 3 LBs instead of stacking the box.
Probably why we are seeing teams opt for big guys up front again to push through a weaker box. I just think SF has the best scheme atm.
For GB, I'd still go TE first before WR and then try to figure it out from there. Id rather have a physical contested catch guy at this point, or another speedster.
greengold
March 26, 2023 at 05:08 pm
JSN scares the living crap out of me with that hamstring injury. Just owned up to that today. Love his ability, would be a perfect fit if truly healthy.
Injured players are usually always injured players.
Quentin? I’m all-in. Not a need though. A luxury pick. Doubt he falls to us. Have another I like R2-4.
Don’t care that Melton hasn’t had an NFL snap. Circumstantial. Bo Melton is a great, solid, tough, reliable slot WR/gadget/PR. Still can’t believe we signed him away. I dig that.
Expected more from Toure last year, but we’ll see.
Want us to add one or two more this draft.
Lootstone
March 28, 2023 at 12:04 am
Had no idea about Melton. Dude, I don't think I saw the 4.34 speed stat before either. There ya go! If you miss on a comfortable Hyatt pick, Melton could be even better...?
**Looks like I even saw him signed in a video a few months ago, but completely overlooked that fact lol. Promising pre-season with Seattle.
greengold
March 28, 2023 at 04:26 am
These were my notes on him:
WR Bo Melton - Rutgers
5-11 198 4.34
Since 2020, Melton ranked #19 in Power 5 deep receptions (15), #2 in uncatchable targets (23). This really says it all. Taking out screens, his Catchable TGT Rate was 7th worst in Power 5 over 3 year span. His separation so good it was in 86th percentile.
He shows good understanding of how to run routes and set up defensive backs and has some spectacular plays in his tape. A 4.34 40 at the combine showed he has legit speed as well. Melton broke double-digit tackles in each of the last two seasons.
Shifty. Speedy. EXPLOSIVE. ROUTES. SEPARATION. TOUGH. YAC.
*Just saddled with a really bad QB. Steal late.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 28, 2023 at 12:20 am
I am not surprised you do not see Quentin as essential, but I don't see him as a luxury pick but a WR that stretches the field who is big, mean, and fast. I don't see another WR that would have the impact he would have....let alone compliment our existing WR's style as well. Yes, I am very interested in seeing how Bo does this year. The 3 receivers I see having a huge impact on the Packers offense this year is Quentin, Kincaid (TE), and possibly JSN.
PackyCheese500
March 26, 2023 at 06:30 pm
Olave and Wilson didn't need to say that JSN was better because he is better than them. He led Ohio St. in rec yds in 2021. Look at his Utah game from 2021. I think the combine shows he's at full health
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 26, 2023 at 03:36 pm
First of all......good job of having a hyperlink to the player profile. Love it!
I like JSN and believe he would be just about a perfect compliment to Watson & Doubs. The offense needs one more dynamic WR, & of course TE to make the offense really hum out there. JSN could be a great fit but I would still take Quentin Johnston over JSN should both be available at #15. My feeling is Johnston plays angry with an attitude and consistently makes contested catches and high point catches over defenders. If Johnston was gone and both Kincaid and JSN were sitting there at #15 I would take the full 10 minutes allotted before making that decision. Both would make the offense significantly better! Be very curious to know what the Packers believe they have in both Melton, & Toure in terms of the slot? Their perception of the two of them would come into play before they would take JSN. Quentin & JSN are in my mind the two best Packer type WR's in the draft. Not feeling Jordan Addison, or Jalin Hyatt in round 1, as I think the Packers need a more physical contested catch WR now that Lazard is gone. I do like Kayson Boutte as a 2nd round WR with him being only 20-years old he is going to continue growing & improving. He was recovering from injury at the Combine and his stats were not good. Maybe he even drops into round 3 because of his Combine.
Lootstone
March 26, 2023 at 03:54 pm
A lot of these receivers are going to go in very different spots when compared to pff, as you allude to. But I don't think JSN would fall to 3. His agility scores are spot on for him, so that, combined with good route running is all you need for a slot receiver.
Maybe that's a better way to grade him. He's the best slot receiver on the board, but which team needs that as a priority, and how many? That would be a better indication of where he "should" get picked up.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 26, 2023 at 05:49 pm
Loot, not sure you even read my post, plus wondering about reference to PFF. Nothing I do when doing my amateur evaluations of players have much if anything to do with PFF. I have used PFF but merely for kicks & giggles when bored. It isn't accurate nor have they updated it, particularly since the Combine.
I am also confused why you think I believe JSN would fall into round 3? JSN will be top 15 - 20 in round 1. I was referencing Kayshon Boutte being a #2, but because of injury and poor Combine might possibly fall to round 3.
Lootstone
March 26, 2023 at 06:02 pm
Ah, I overlooked the Kayshon part and assumed you were referencing JSN in that sentence since he was injured as well. My bad. I read some articles on my phone, and some articles in my office. I'm 33 so forgive the athletic slip of my aging eyes lol.
I don't think there is anything wrong with PFF grades though, they aren't everything but they track statistics arguably better than anyone.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 26, 2023 at 06:14 pm
Thanks Loot!
PFF is just one more tool. If one was truly doing a deep dive you would review every resource available in determining a player value.
Got to believe the Packers have a custom built software program similar to PFF's but where they create their own player value point system where they can make trades, and search by position. Be very cool to see & use.
Lootstone
March 26, 2023 at 06:56 pm
It would be interesting to find out how they go about their picks.
For me it's more of a feel. I'll look at PFF to get an overall consensus of whose being evaluated & where - look at the statistics. Compare that with the combine results, and senior bowl/pro days. Then I'll look at all the mock drafts to see what the public is thinking after the combine is finished.
Then, from all the need players, I start watching highlights, probably too much time considering this isn't my day job. From there I only have enough time to solidify a couple dozen from more extensive game film. I will watch full games of the teams where I'm really emphasizing a player (figure out if a guy is a star because of his environment or in spite of). Every college team seems to represent a different dynamic of gameplay and scheme, like "tight end university - notre dame" or "pass heavy - ohio."
So for example, when Watson popped up on my radar, I started looking into his highlights and was wow'd. Only from there I learned that NDSU was a run heavy college, and I realized Watson was under utilized, but was humble about it - and hungry to make big plays. Maybe that's what made him push, maybe not, Idk. I just knew GB developed the WR and tended to pick in the second round. Was worried he was going to go in the first, and was applauding the FO when they traded up. My wife was concerned why I was screaming in April until I explained what happened that beautiful Friday lol.
We don't get to interview, show film, and have that rookie explain what he's seeing and doing on a play; so we are left guessing. But I put more emphasis on small time youtuber interviews because of that, and try to figure out what drives a key player. The nfl is all studs, as we know. As a GM, you not only have to find a talent that fits, you have to know they want to get better each year from whatever foundation they offer at draft time. Watson wants to be the best WR, but he's not arrogant about it. Such a good pick by GB last year.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 26, 2023 at 08:35 pm
Great overview!
I similarly do the same but very infrequently actually watch games vs highlights. Just not the time.
Rarescope
March 27, 2023 at 10:55 pm
I just read all of your comments so I can pretend to have a clue in the first round. Then I watch highlight reels after the picks are in and start dreaming about how our seventh round receiver is going to take us to the super bowl :D
PackEyedOptimist
March 26, 2023 at 05:18 pm
Agree, and lots of good points, Knock.
I still really like Jonathan Mingo and A.T. Perry in this draft, and I think Dontayvion Wicks is a Packer-type. Kayshon Boutte really reminds me of Randall Cobb, and Rashee Rice is a great contested catch winner, who could help Love.
Then there's Jahmyr Gibbs, who I still think would be a Pro-Bowl slot WR and gadget player if used that way. Honestly, if the Packers want a slot, I'd take HIM over JSN.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 26, 2023 at 05:56 pm
Packeyed,
First thumbs up just for reading my post. I like some of those receivers as well.
You know JG is really too small to be an every down RB, but the slot might be perfect. With his quickness & speed he might be ideal motioning frequently out of the backfield a lot like AJ. Would be a nice gadget player in MF's offense. Bijan Robinson could be used similarly.
PackyCheese500
March 26, 2023 at 06:32 pm
Love Mingo. He can be a big slot like Lazard. Also great at blocking. Deceptively good downfield threat. He'd be a steal in the 4th.
PackyCheese500
March 26, 2023 at 06:31 pm
I believe Johnston will likely be taken by the Texans at #12. Bryce Young can't have Robert Woods as his #1 WR
greengold
March 27, 2023 at 07:03 am
Like yourself, Knock, I would take Johnston over JSN. Both very different WRs.
I like Boutte in GB if he’s available Day2-3.. Athlon doesn’t make Boutte the cover image of the WR section for nothing.
Doubt Johnston makes it to us, but if he does, I could see Gutekunst snapping him off the board. It would make our WR group a major strength. Damn, that would be something.
Trenches.
Gutekunst might want to spend the top of our draft OT and DE/DT. Maybe hit TE if they have to have a guy.
I think our WR room has great talent - and he adds another depth player R2-R4. AT Perry is my jam there.
Bo Melton is the slot player already on our roster whom I have 100% confidence in. He’s so versatile too.
I love JSN with the Packers, as long as that hamstring is fully healthy and not a chronic problem. His skill set is exactly what we want.
Great slot and perfect complement.
I wish we knew more about Toure, because there was a lot to like with his selection late last year:
WR Samori Toure - Nebraska
6-4 220 4.44
* Does a nice job locating and tracking deep passes and is a legitimate vertical threat. Willing to go up and attack the ball.
* Balanced, savvy route runner with top field awareness, setting up and selling routes beautifully.
* Often used on deep routes, getting separation down the sideline or over the middle on crossing routes by extending his arms rather than pure speed.
* Does not have exceptional straight-line speed but takes advantage of open seams when his quarterback is on target.
* A savvy, natural pass-catcher with reliable hands and very good focus. Snatches the ball out of the air and shows the concentration to make acrobatic catches look easy.
* Has the strong hands any NFL wide receiver coach and quarterback would covet. Tracks the deep ball over either shoulder and brings in passes fluidly without breaking stride downfield.
* Has a knack for getting open and is a quarterback's best friend - passers just need to toss the ball in his area and he'll come down with it.
* Has long arms to stiff-arm defensive backs in the open field. Willing to lower his pads to run through tackles for extra yardage. Goes over the middle, can spin out of tackles and take the big hit.
Samori Toure
DOB: 3.24.98
RAS: 6.09
PFF grade: 29 (out of 207)
aDOT: 34 (out of 153)
PFF receiving grade: 26 (out of 207)
Drop rate: 20 (out of 117)
Catch %: 80 (out of 117)
PFF hands grade: 27 (out of 207)
Contested catch rate: N/A
PFF run block grade: 141 (out of 207)
Slot %: 79.8
Wide %: 17.1
Caught 2 TDs in the Senior Bowl, and made a key block on a 3rd TD.
dobber
March 27, 2023 at 09:38 am
"WR Samori Toure - Nebraska
6-4 220 4.44"
He's only 6'1", 195.
jannesbjornson
March 27, 2023 at 08:59 pm
Corn Dog 4 U....
greengold
March 27, 2023 at 09:33 pm
Nice. I do write that shit too. Must have gotten it mixed up. My apologies.
That’s funny, and the corn dog is even funnier!
I piece this shit together as best I can. Recall not knowing anything about him and, well, there you go.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 27, 2023 at 11:29 pm
Have you seen the Gutey interview at the owners meeting today (Andy)? Holy Hanna he is straight forward about Rodgers and illustrates Rodgers was not honest on the McAfee show. Of course, no big surprise! Now one would think the trade would have to be done for him to make those comments.
greengold
March 28, 2023 at 05:07 am
Just saw a little bit of it. Makes me thrilled to know the drama queen is soon gone.
If we don’t take 13 overall, I don’t care. It’s below market value, but, I’d trade Aaron Rodgers for a bag of Taco Flavored Doritos.
Just get him outta here.
I’m tired no, no… beyond tired of his manufactured drama BS.
Rarescope
March 27, 2023 at 11:00 pm
Sheesh with that background write up you’d think he would have been a first round pick. Ironically it sounded like lack of effort in practice was what held him back last year. Curious to see if he sees more targets this year as his college film did look pretty good.
greengold
March 28, 2023 at 04:54 am
To me, it’s funny.
All of my WR notes are standardized to the Packers 6-4 220 quotient. I usually change that...
Lolz
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 28, 2023 at 12:23 am
I am hopeful about Toure & Melton. Would be a fantastic bonus should even one of those guys become a legitimate starting WR.
BAMABADGER
March 26, 2023 at 03:50 pm
Not a great draft year for dominant WRs. Pass on them until the 3rd round. Would rather spend the first two offensive picks on a OT and TE.
jannesbjornson
March 27, 2023 at 09:01 pm
Woody Hayes has left the building a century ago. There are plenty of WRs. They pass the ball with pace in the New Offenses. The Kid from Florida, Shorter can snatch the ball and put a hurt on DBs and he goes in the sixth.
BirdDogUni
March 26, 2023 at 03:59 pm
Per NFL.com - Smith-Njigba is a possession slot receiver who lacks the shake to separate underneath and the speed to run past defenses. He’s tough in the middle of the defense and has proven he can make catches in congestion. Smith-Njigba will need to fine-tune his route running to give himself his best chance to succeed at the next level. It is impossible to ignore his monster finish to the 2021 season, and he has starting slot potential, but the speed concerns coupled with an injury-plagued 2022 season threaten to negatively impact his draft stock.
If we end up with multiple 2nd round picks and he were to fall to Gutey, he might jump on the value in the 2nd round. I doubt he's even on our board in the 1st round value category.
stockholder
March 26, 2023 at 04:19 pm
I like him. Great hands.
But I'd take Defense First.
I see a guy who's going to get his bell rung.
He's not slippery, or Fast. May have peaked.
jannesbjornson
March 26, 2023 at 10:00 pm
Wilson and Olave were Doubled, Smith was the open guy as the third option. Marvin Harrison, Jr. next year on a trade up in the first round.. Maybe the Pack will have the higher pick?
Cheesey51
March 28, 2023 at 09:45 pm
If we get (2) seconds, Jermaine Johnson and possibly whitehead from the Jets,
then this guy will be the guy to take at 13 or 15
One can only hope
splitpea1
March 26, 2023 at 04:39 pm
Hey! Do you have a license to breed unicorns? Washington maybe yes, but JSN, no.
Who knows, he may turn out to be a fine player, but a slot guy really shouldn't be on the Packers radar in Round One.
Cheesey51
March 28, 2023 at 09:49 pm
Again, with 3 seconds we can climb back into the bottom of the first and take Washington or multiple of TE's, aka Kincaid. The packers will accumulate at least 2TE's and have Lewis back to teach them "What For". Lewis is more of a LaFleur guy than Rodgers.
Bank on it.
Handsback
March 26, 2023 at 04:45 pm
Some scouts point to JSN as a polished Sterling Sharpe and best wideout in the draft. Obviously not all but some with other NFC teams. Except for last year, didn't see of Ohio State games, every game JSN seemed to be in, he was the best WR on the field.
His speed is almost the same as Jordy Nelson, better hands, better route running, and quicker.
The choices may be between JSN and the RB from Texas if one of the top ten guys don't fall to the Packers, or could trade down to grab the Iowa edge rusher. Fits the Packer's size and strength for their edge rushers.
Just MHO
Lootstone
March 26, 2023 at 05:09 pm
That RB from Texas, hands down - every time.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 26, 2023 at 05:58 pm
There are two exceptional RBs from Texas Longhorns, but I'd take Bijan every time over Roschone Johnson.
PackyCheese500
March 26, 2023 at 06:34 pm
I would not take a RB in the first. Does Trent Richardson ring a bell?
jannesbjornson
March 27, 2023 at 09:18 pm
I like guys from the U, like my Man, Frank Gore. 5'-9 ,226 He should be in the HOF. Third round selection.
PackEyedOptimist
March 26, 2023 at 05:28 pm
Guessing you mean RB Achane? Personally, I'd take Jahmyr Gibbs over him, but Achane will be good.
I'm worried the Packers might take VanEss...he could easily be a bust. He has very little technique, and did poorly on the bench (17! Heck, WR Jonathan Mingo did 22!)
He might be good...but...
Also, who the HECK sees Sterling Sharpe in JSN?! Sharpe was a 4.4 highly-elusive player in college, who was a great kick returner, amongst other things, and a great blocker as well.
PackyCheese500
March 26, 2023 at 06:42 pm
Really? I like Van Ness. He has drawn comparisons to both the Watt brothers.
Sure he may have had one bad bench press at the combine, but if you look at any of his draft scouting reports, his strength is one of his biggest assets.
I consider Van Ness to be a Rashan Gary-like prospect; a bit unrefined technically, but has VERY alluring physical traits. He is 6'5, 272 lbs with a 4.58 40!
He can also play all around the D-line. He's played everywhere from 3-tech to a stand-up OLB. I think that, with development, like Gary, he can become a dominant force. What I am unsure about is whether he'd fit best in the 3-4 as a DE or an OLB.
golfpacker1
March 26, 2023 at 05:36 pm
First I will say I like Quentin Johnston and 30 days ago he was my favorite WR. I also like JSN and am surprised his RAS is not higher even though thats only one factor in drafting a player. Either has the potential to be really good in Green Bay but no thanks in the 1st round. After wrongly passing on WR all these years it would be utterly insane for the Packers to spend such a valuable pick on a WR this year. Someone should lose a job if that happened. The WR group is so strong this year and there isn't that much difference talent wise between the top ten and the next ten.
In fact unless we end up with 4 second round picks after trading back and the Jets giving us 2 for Rodgers, I wouldn't take a WR until the 3rd. The group after the "top 5" is so strong that they would have the same impact as the top 5. We might have Ford-Wheaton, Hutchinson, Mingo, Iosivas, Palmer, Perry, scott and other all still available in 3rd or later. Mingo is a less expensive version of Johnston and would have the same impact. Hutchinson is Devontee Adams 1A. These others are big, fast, have great RAS and catch the ball well. Seems like you could close your eyes and pick one and do really well.
Its been stated enough times in these postings that a really good TE would impact our offense more than a really good WR and I think its true. If we were to trade back for more picks, and draft one of the top 5 TEs and then get another good one after the 3rd we would be on our way to turning the TE position group into a strength. Add Jeremy Ruckert from the Jets and we are set. WE have a talented one already on the practice squad, Austin Allen.
I know it will piss off some posters who think we have to get a WR early but the class is so strong we can get one later. Hell I would be really happy if we drafted Matt Landers-Arkansas in rounds 4 or 5. Talk about a steal that late. We don't want to waste a chance and miss out on the best TE class in years. I know I am repeating myself but trading back for more picks so we can fill all of the needs we have is the way to approach it. But whether our 1st pick is a TE, Edge, or Safety the talent level will be the same at 40 as it will at 15.
I know it sucks when we wait so long for the draft to finally get here, we are counting down to our pick and it gets delayed when we trade back and we wait longer. But this draft is so important this year that we can't afford to mess it up. With the hopefully upcoming Rodgers trade and the rebuild starting we have a big opportunity to get better faster.
PackyCheese500
March 26, 2023 at 06:44 pm
I agree. TE before WR. I would target Tillman in the second round as a WR. Excellent hands, and I think he would complement Watson and Doubs nicely.
My preference in the first round, to be honest, though, would be, in order: Edge rusher, Skoronski, TE.
Lootstone
March 26, 2023 at 05:36 pm
Christian McCaffrey stats for his NCAA career:
64 missed tackles - 2016
3.30 yards after contact per attempt - 2016
2.89 over 3 seasons
100 catches over 3 seasons
Bijan:
104 missed tackles - 2022
4.17 yards after contact per attempt - 2022
4.4 over 3 seasons
60 catches over 3 seasons
What am I missing here?
If McCaffrey was picked 8th and viewed as one of the smartest picks in the last decade... Why is anyone hesitating to take anyone but Bijan at 15? Assuming he falls that far.
PLUS you get a 5th year option, which means you have one of the cheapest ballers in the entire NFL for 5 years guaranteed. I will preach this until this becomes the consensus lol.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 26, 2023 at 06:05 pm
Get in line behind me Loot as I have been talking Bijan at #15 for over a month now. Bijan not only had 104 missed tackles to lead the NCAA last year. He actually sat the NCAA record for missed tackles this past year as well.
Lootstone
March 26, 2023 at 06:07 pm
Good, then it's settled :D
Lets get pick 13 and prevent that darn Patriot prediction by the NFL.
BirdDogUni
March 27, 2023 at 09:48 pm
Sounds like Gutey is going to settle for a 2nd from what I've seen today. (Yahoo I think?)
If he settles for a 2nd, he and Murphy should be run out on a %'in rail, IMO.
Lootstone
March 27, 2023 at 11:52 pm
Yeah - I saw that. "Doesn't necessarily need a 1st" could very much mean 2 2nd rounders. Which this is the one year I think that's worth just as much. But the consensus is a 1st is worth more than 2 second rounders because you have more power = more options.
Really all I meant was the idea where people had the two teams swapping firsts. So Packers give 15 and ARod. Jets give 13, 42, 43.
I think that's probably the max we would get. When I run mock drafts I just do Rodgers for 42, 43. We better get at least that.
My main goal with every mock is solidified: Get Bijan 15 or trade down for Mayer/Kincaid + another pick, get Darnell 42, trade down 43 to let fate decide until 45, get more picks. Get Hyatt or Musgrave (because 2 tights ends that block for Bijan/Love/Jones).
From there probably still is Keion White, Earl Brooks, Nick Herbig, Jordan Battle, Keeanu Benton, Michael Wilson, Mims. The only thing we'd lose out on is a top LB like Drew Sanders or Jack Campbell. The Edgers are stacked this year - still some good safeties on the board, which I don't want to waste capital on - and bam you have a solid offense day 1 (in theory, but definitely on paper).
Why are people so gung-ho for unproven talent at 15? Everyone at the 15 spot defense wise is unproven. Nolan, Van Ness, JSN, Branch, Paris even. All unproven for guaranteed NFL level success.
PackyCheese500
March 26, 2023 at 06:54 pm
I am sorry, but the Packers will not be taking a Running Back in the first round, and rightfully so. Why would we when our RB room is stacked and when we have some position groups like TE and S that, if unaddressed we will struggle to fill roster spots for these guys.
Does anyone remember Trent Richardson, who was 3rd in Heisman voting in 2011 and was hailed as the best RB since Adrian Peterson? How do you think the Browns feel about choosing Richardson over players like Luke Kuechly, Stephon Gilmore, and Fletcher Cox?
Richardson was thought by many to be a slam-dunk prospect at RB. We have seen how that turned out. It is incorrect to assume that Bijan will automatically be a hit, because there's a very real chance that's not the case. How would you feel if the FO wasted our highest draft pick in years on a busted RB? Especially when there's so much talent at edge rusher and TE, two of our biggest needs?
Even if Robinson does turn out to be a hit, it is foolish to pass up on other positions that are of greater value. Look at Saquon Barkley. He is a great player, but do you know the Giants' combined record since they drafted him? 29-54-1 (playoffs included). How do you think they feel about passing on players like Josh Allen, Quenton Nelson, Roquan Smith, and Denzel Ward?
Do you think, in 2017, the Browns should have picked Christian McCaffery over Myles Garrett? No! It's because they can find guys like Nick Chubb that are not in the first round. Remember that Austin Ekeler, who leads the NFL in touchdowns over the past two seasons, was an UDFA.
If there is one position it is okay to be weak at, it is RB (provided you have a good OL). The Packers are actually very strong currently at RB; there's no need to add to it over other needs, much less spend premium draft capital on it.
Lootstone
March 26, 2023 at 07:15 pm
Boo!
Yes, but I don't want him to just run. I want to confuse defenses same as SF does. I want defenses to "want" to stack the box and have flat feet on the outside when GB steps on the field.
And if we don't pick him, and he runs all over defenses, like he will... Are you going to say, oh well at least we have a good run game? I want THE run/pass game.
Also, no one guy was going to help the Browns win those years anyway. Richardson was an example of the tank RB that teams chose during that time. Like Elliot, Henry etc. It would be like starting Dillon over Jones. You have to have a very strong/smart Oline if you want to run up the middle all the time.
PackyCheese500
March 26, 2023 at 07:22 pm
Boy, the 49ers sure confused the Eagles' defense, didn't they!
Becuse of the whole Purdy injury thing, though, a better example would be the Dallas Cowboys' wild-card game. Maybe the 49ers with CMC can run all over bad defenses, but when they faced one of the best defenses in the Dallas Cowboys, they were held to 19 points. McCaffery was held to 35 yards on 10 carries and only 22 yards on 6 receptions. The only reason they won was because of their defense and Prescott's errors.
This is why the positional value of RBs is so low. They may look great against average and bad teams, but against the true contenders, they will be found out. The OL is more important. Did Zeke (in his prime) help the Cowboys win a ring? They didn't even make it to the CCG
He may run all over defenses, like Barkley did, but how much will it actually help his team win? Over picking something like an edge rusher or offensive lineman
Lootstone
March 26, 2023 at 07:43 pm
Ok,
SF put up 13 FG points in that game and the TD was scored by who - uh huh. Dallas is good, but clearly couldn't win. To say Dak didn't play good and that's why they lost, well, SF was on their 3rd quarterback... so Idk why you would pick that game as the example. Oh, probably because they were undefeated once McCaffrey signed.
And for the Eagles game, really? Like, really? It was not even through the 1st quarter when their only viable QB left was taken off the field. After that, they were so desperate they threw him back in the game, and maybe threw the ball once, twice? Yup, clearly a viable point when 50%+ of your playbook gets thrown out.
So since your argument is kind of non-existent, please tell me where a top O lineman or Edge Rusher played more of an impact in a win over what a top RB can do for a team? Because I bet even you could think of more times where an RB is more influential on the outcome of a game than just what 1 pillar is capable of on a line.
Why would I focus on one player to win me a ball game anyway? That's not at all what I was laying out.
PS I would of been nicer in my response had you not led with boy and continued to spew nonsense :D
PackyCheese500
March 26, 2023 at 08:54 pm
Prescott threw two picks and had a 67 passer rating. Purdy’s was nearly 20 points better. Purdy was the better QB, and Dak played badly. It also doesn’t help when your star RB Pollard (who was a 4th round pick) breaks his leg. Also, 90 percent of NFL RBs can score a TD from two yards out.
I can agree about the Eagles game, though.
In response to your question: if the 49ers had to choose one of Trent Williams, Nick Bosa, or CMC to cut, who do you think they would choose? The Eagles outran the 49ers by 67 yards with Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell, none of who are as good as CMC, but they run behind the best OL in the league.
Also, all the teams SF played from week 7 onward have a combined record of 60-75-1. Only one team (Chargers, with the leagues worst run defense against who CMC had 38 yards with 2.7 ypc against) had double digit wins. A lot of the other teams (Seahawks, Raiders, Cardinals twice) also had terrible run defenses.
Lootstone
March 26, 2023 at 09:27 pm
You are right - you have to throw more deep balls when Pollard is out, which could result in more risk. You made a beautiful example though here. Who was left? Zeke. That's going to be a predictable 90% of the time up the middle with Zeke. Which has it's uses, but it's less the defense has to accommodate for. You made the defenses job that much easier when they didn't have to worry about that speed to the outside.
And just because RBs are underpaid doesn't mean they are undervalued. But most teams don't know how to use an RB, so their value in my opinion gets lost.
I would order it
Nick Bosa (because the guy is not normal)
CMC (but if I had to choose between Bosa and CMC its a toss up). Bosa is just younger, less likely to get hurt.
Trent Williams
Just like we would let Bakh go, but I think that is unrelated.
Yes, your pillars are important 100%, but I call them pillars because they are left with a single lane role. There is role importance here and the reason why the league doesn't like RBs is because they get hurt, and thus are expensive due to guaranteed injury contracts and then a salary hit for every season they are out. The reason why KC will pick late round RBs and sign lower end RBs is because they are cheap and replaceable (to an extent). BUT, they have to account for Mahomes salary, just like we had to account for Rodgers/Adams.
Just like Knock pointed out above. If you know how to use an RB, they become a multi-faceted weapon. So when film study comes and they figure out how to take a guy out, or accommodate around him... that's when a really good RB like CMC shines. Oh, and Deebo is included just to cause further confusion. Hence why Bijan/Jones would be amazing. I can only imagine every time both Deebo and CMC hit the field, defenses just go, "awh s***."
One trick ponies, or single lane players are easier to take out of a game than versatile weapons like CMC, Bijan, Pollard, Jones. Plan around Bosa, have a good block cross to pick him up. When fans said run the ball with Jones, really what makes Jones so valuable to chunk yards is, in fact, his ability to do it all. Dillon can catch, but can't burst/slip like Jones. You use tank RBs to wear down your defense. But, as you point out, if you have a stellar defense, you can take care of a Derrick Henry all game.
RBs are very misunderstood in their value proposition because sadly they get hurt. But, again 1st round pick = 5 year option. That's a cheap star to fill for 5 years if you feel it's too much cap space to take on for year 6.
Look at Ekeler right now - most scored TDs in the league, but by every team considered "old" for an RB and no one is willing to PAY for the risk. With a 5 year - it's not expensive like an Ekeler is on the free market. But it's kind of sad for Ekeler, "sorry we can't pay you more, not because you're not worth it, you just might get hurt."
jannesbjornson
March 27, 2023 at 08:57 pm
Shanahan is passe'. They built a defense full of ALL Pros upfront, but the Bell will Toll, sooner than later. I would never play for that punk. He wrecks his QBs and beats the RBs like tired Mules. Deebo is a guy I would target for a trade.
Titletown222
March 27, 2023 at 07:46 pm
I’d prefer Gibbs in round 2 over Bijan in round 1
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 26, 2023 at 08:38 pm
Packy,
Gawd, we are blessed to have so many knowledgeable perspectives on here....however depending who else is still on the board at #15 I'm still likely running Loot over while running Bijans card to the Commissioner. 😀
Then as soon as he was drafted I'd tell MF to start creating new schemes for Bijans skill set of running, and receiving. Tell MF to look at how the Cardinals, RB David Johnson in 2016. He had 80 catches for 879 receiving yards, and 4 receiving TD's. He had 1,239 rushing yards, plus 16 rushing TD's. Bijan can be all that and more. LeFleur needs to go back and see how Bruce Airens used him in the offense.
Lootstone
March 26, 2023 at 08:48 pm
Fine by me! If it's Bijan's card though, you can pass it as well. Multiple options with that type of pick lol.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
March 26, 2023 at 08:56 pm
See my edit above and how Bijan can be used like Arizona used David Johnson back in 2016.
PackyCheese500
March 26, 2023 at 09:07 pm
That’s pretty clever…made me laugh (no sarcasm )!
PackyCheese500
March 26, 2023 at 09:06 pm
Aside from 2016, David Johnson was an average RB. That is what I fear will happen and very well can happen with any RB we draft. That’s why it’s better to stick to the later rounds. I do not want to draft another David Johnson. Aside from 2016, he was just average. Not worth a first round pick.
Lootstone
March 26, 2023 at 10:11 pm
If only QBs were as replaceable. You wouldn't skip signing a star QB over anyone because they touch the ball every play - same concept as to why you don't take another player this year over an RB like Bijan (for a mid round 1 pick). If he's on the board and we don't pick him, all the praise for the FO on the Watson pick for me will go out the window.
Maybe Paris or Peter if we trade DBakh. In that case, I'd hope we have picks 13&15 for that not to be an issue.
BirdDogUni
March 27, 2023 at 10:06 pm
Peter will likely play guard in the league, so I wouldn't draft him in the 1st round, unless you really feel we need a Guard. I would draft Broderick Jones though.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/nfl-rumors-packers-soften-asking-pr...
Looks like Gutey isn't as tough as I thought he was. SMH
golfpacker1
March 27, 2023 at 10:12 am
I am so jealous of Ohio state. They just keep rolling out 1st round WR every year. The one I want for Green Bay will be in the draft next year, Marvin Harrison. Ohio state is always on tv so I have seen him alot and this kid is the real deal. He will be a top 7 pick next year. If we have a chance to draft him next year it will mean we had a really bad season. He is 6'4 205lbs, had 77 catches for 1263 yrds with 14 TDs and probably would have been the best WR in the draft this year. He will be 21 next year. Wow
Cheesey51
March 28, 2023 at 09:52 pm
He'll be a top 10 pick in 2023, unless you can draft Harrison this year and called dibs(which you can't), the Packers will be picking from the bottom 20-32 in 2024
golfpacker1
March 28, 2023 at 03:59 pm
Packy I am not saying we should draft Bijan but honestly even though Aaron Jones is a good RB, Bijan is a bigtime upgrade. A gamechanger at RB. You realize we could trade AJ immediately and get at worst a 3rd rounder back and possibly a 2nd rounder. It's like upgrading with a bonus. It wouldn't be my number one option but it's the same as trading back but getting to keep the pick. Very intriguing option. The other option if Bijan was to fall is trade the pick to someone who wants him worse, Bijan is a rare non QB player that someone will convince themselves can change their team. We could get multiple picks for him and still be in the 1st round. Triple bonus.
In reality because we need to move on from AJ there are a number of backs that could give us the same production for a lot less $$. Abanakanda, Tucker, Achane, Brown, Johnson, etc. I like Spears as an AJ clone also Gray and Evan Hull.
Because they hurt us so much cap wise, next year we need to move on from Aaron Jones, Bahktiari, Devondre Campbell, Preston Smith, maybe Dillon. We will be drafting some of their replacements this year and next. As far as Bahktiari I think we are covered with Nijman to take over and I don't think Sean Rhyan is a bust. Just had a shit first year. He was highly rated for a reason. Also we have a sleeper in Rasheed Walker. OT is not a priority. Too bad we can't draft Jack Campbell to replace Devondre.
golfpacker1
March 28, 2023 at 04:13 pm
LOOT you are spot on about Bijan. It would be a win-win if we draft him because we get another high pick for Jones and get to address another need. If we trade the pick we get another 1st rounder and more premium picks. We have so many needs that we can't fill all the holes with this draft, but picking Bijan would give us a way better path to being good again sooner. It seems risky but its a really smart move because Jones will be gone next year anyway. Jones is worth way more now while he is healthy and still very good than if he would be if he gets injured this year.
Cheesey51
March 28, 2023 at 09:56 pm
This is an unusual draft. No real slam dunk 1st rounders. If the Packers stay put at 15 and there guy falls to them ,then run the card up to Roger, if not trade down and collect picks as this draft is stoked come 2nd round and we know the Packers history of strikin' gold in the 2nd rd
BirdDogUni
March 28, 2023 at 10:14 pm
Not sure many teams will want to trade up in this draft. Maybe for an OT if they're desperate.
golfpacker1
March 29, 2023 at 10:46 am
Bird, someone always wants to trade up, they just need a partner. We can get virtually the same talent in the 2nd as we can @ #15. We could fill 2 more holes by trading back, 3 players for 1. Two players I see teams trading up for are Bijan Robinson and Hendon Hooker. I am surprised Hooker doesn't get more attention. He is better than Levis and Richardson and will be a starter sooner. I think we are in a prime spot to trade back, maybe twice if we still are in 1st round after the first trade back. Also, if we got both 2nd rounders from the Jets we could trade back #43 to later in 2nd for extra 3rd. I am optimistic this is going to be a game changing draft for Green Bay.