I don't think its all on him maybe sometimes the scouts and talent evaluators may be the weak link.

Like any GM, with hindsight Gutekunst could have drafted better (particularly the middle of 2018), but I think you're giving him too little credit. Given injuries and the depth of our squad, some players have not really had a chance to demonstrate their abilities; and I expect a number of them will step-up this year.

All things considered, Gutekunst has done a fine job navigating roster building; fully utilizing the Draft, UFA, and FA. I have confidence in him and the organization.

Drafting “success” is very difficult to evaluate. Gute like most GMs has had some hits and some misses. You also have to consider where a team is drafting. Many teams will be declared “winners” of a draft. Many of those “winners” probably would have preferred two straight NFC Championship game appearances. Well, if you are drafting at the top of a draft I think it’s pretty easy when you are drafting say Trevor Lawrence or some other big time known quantity. You also need to give some time for development. Anyone notice how Savage or Gary were being labeled “busts” by some a year ago? After last season they seem to be developing nicely. I get why people hate the Jordan Love pick. However, how does that pick get graded if Love becomes the player the Packers think he can be?

Per Ron Wolf... if a draft hits on 3 starters or heavy contributors you've had a quality draft. 4 outstanding and 5 exceptional. If any of them become All Pro, it raises the grade significantly.

Its only just now, that you can evaluate his 1st draft.

Let's just say the author leaves plenty out of his "analysis ". Ron Wolf was even worse in rd 1 than Thompson!

I think you would have to look at all the GMs and their drafts for the past 10-15 years to determine a baseline, and then you could compare what Gutekunst has done against the average, before you could answer the question intelligently.

IMO, if you get two decent players that you would offer a second contract to, and two contributors, you’ve had a pretty good draft.

I also think you have to consider UDFAs as part of your draft.

"It's possible Rashan Gary becomes a starter in the future." was one of your points. Really?....Really?

Considering they say it takes 3 years to really know what you have in a draft pick, the 2018 class SHOULD be the one we're judging this year.

The draft is a crap shoot and hindsight is 20/20. It's really easy to say Gute should have taken this guy or that guy based on that players stats a few years into their careers. When you consider the extra 1st he got in 2018 and drafted Savage, 2018 looks better than just Alexander and MVS.

2019 he drafted Gray, (Savage), Jenkins, Keke who looked pretty damn good until his injury, and I still have hope for Sternberger.

2020 it's just too early but Runyan will be a starter for years to come on the O-Line IMO and Dillon is going to help form the best 1-2 punch at RB in the NFL this year (just watch). And I like DeGuara and Martin in the little they played last year and think they'll be solid picks.

All in all Gute's been pretty good. Not great but pretty good with a chance to be great. We have to give them TIME!

I don't believe Gute listens to his scouts. His last draft was a head scratcher. So before you toast his success. Do his drafts reflect the "All-In" phrase. Are they controversial? Has he got the BPA? How many players have succeeded after his selections. And has he given away to much draft value? Did he find what others couldn't. IMO- No. I guess it's just because he refuses to fix the DL and ILb. I believe he's making the Controversial picks on purpose. That way his successful selections appear superior. And he has nothing to lose as long as he has Rodgers. So Does Gute know how to draft? The Best way to answer that is; has Gute made himself Better?

Idiot Gutty has 5 starters through 3 drafts!!!! He effing SUCKS!! He is the WORST GM ever! Why? Because his drafts are SO bad that he has to spend big $ in FA’s to make up for his ineptitude thus “doubling down” on stupidity!!

Correlation between Draft Position and "Starter Status"

Using Pro Football Reference as a resource, Looking at all players who were classified as starters at the beginning of the 2014 season to determine what round they were drafted in upon entering the league.  Of the 595 players designated as such, the results reveal the following:

Nearly 30% of all starters were 1st round draft picks when drafted into the league;
-          Roughly 30% were taken in either the 2nd or 3rd round;
-          Roughly 26% were taken in either rounds 4 through 7;
-          Undrafted players (14%) were the 3rd most likely group to comprise 2014’s starters…only behind 1st round (30%) and 2nd round (18%) picks.

When Jordan Love finally takes over and shows why Gutey drafted him then fans will stop doubting! Love already had all the right stuff to be another Mahomes but he needed polishing before becoming a starter, Well he's getting the best shine behind one of the best to lace them up so yes Love will be our QB for a decade plus!

Alexander: has taken a couple years of lumps here and there, but is now an elite shutdown CB. Could not be happier where he is now. Great pick.

Savage: started as a rookie only because we had nobody on the roster to compete, he has shown out well about midway thru this last season and is doing really well now. Hopefully he builds on this success.Great future potential

Gary: I wanted an immediate starter. He has grown a lot the last few years and should have started over P. Smith around week #10 this season. He will improve and be a pro bowler once he's on the field more now that Pettine is gone. He was pretty raw but has learned his new position quickly and is a load for an offense to take on. Better things to come here on out. Great future potential.

Dillon: brought on very slowly by ML. Did well in Titans game...then nothing...puzzling ML coaching. Really could have used him in NFCC game. Still a question mark.

Degura: played in only a couple games and got hurt. I have to say, when I saw his first play, I said damn, this guy is going to be good. I felt he could take the offense up a notch. If he can get healthy and stay it. I think he does just that. He looked like he belonged and excelled as a rookie. looking forward to him this season.

MVS: pretty inconsistent during the year up and down. Showed up big time in NFCC game though. I'm really pulling for this kid to get it all together from here on out. He has a lot of potential w/ his speed and catch radius.

Jenkins: honestly is my favorite OL. No drop off in any position on OL they put him at. Big strong guy, just refuse to get beat and let someone dirty up our QB and has strength in running game also. Humble guy that knows God has gifted him and he uses it at any position. Absolutely love this pick. It took an injury but started immediately and did not disappoint.

Several previous ILB that have not stuck. Several late round WR's that did not improve. Not having a plug and play OT has been a weakness on Gute drafting. WR skillset overall is poor. TE group is solid. RB group needs another player who can go into the rotation. DB group is lacking good #2 CB and rotation players. DL is missing a starting DL and a lot of rotational depth. Love pick, I'll deem unnecessary as of now, needs should have been addressed for SB push. I like the OL xtra picks late last draft, I'm sure we'll need them.
Is Gute good at drafting? Mixed results of course, seems to hit #1 picks so far minus the highly questionable Love pick. Better to question as GM? I'm nobody, but he seems to extend who I monetarily, would not and draft priorities at times that I also would not. Gute was handed a poor overall roster. Mostly through FA on defense and drafting priorities on defense he has made us very competitive, but has not made the needed move to fill obvious needs at trade deadlines nor used draft capital to pull good players off losing teams for a Super Bowl run. That alone loses points for me. He's not bad...but not the guy to get you to the next level either.

Gutey has 10 draft choices this year, he has plenty of ammo to move up and get his guys. I’d rather he hits on 5 guys and gives up 5 picks than drafting 10 mediocre guys for depth.

Go get your guys Gutey!

Quality over Quantity!

That is all....

This is a study of 11 years of drafting showing the success rate of 1st round draft picks by when they were picked. Picking 21-32 the success rate is only 47%.

Pick area. Success Rate %
1-5. 77.1
6-10. 51.4
11-15. 57.1
16-20. 51.4
21-32. 47.0

Interestingly, this success rate continues to be low even at the very top of the draft.

While there does appear to be a dropoff at the end of the draft, even in the top 10, the numbers are very poor. What I mean to show from this, however, is not that everything is impossible and that we should all give up, but rather that the conventions and techniques that have been used in most of scouting in recent years are far from perfect, and that maybe, just maybe, it might be worth trying something else.

"Last year, his draft class was a… uh, let’s just say *it didn’t pay immediate dividends*"

Anyone that writes the above sentence, with emphasis between *s, probably shouldn't be commenting on drafts.

Really can't judge last years draft .. Pretty simple If Jordan Love Becomes a top 10 quarterback for us or is flipped for high draft picks well it will equal a home run . just comparing to what I see what teams like San Francisco and others gave up to get the chance to draft a Franchise Quarter Back. Let's give Dillion Degura Runyan Martin this year to see before we go crazy

Except for Jaire and getting the extra first and maybe MVS the rest of the picks well were pop outs

2019 has the chance to be special - Gary Savage Jenkins Keke but to be special Gary or Savage will need to jump to pro bowl all pro levels

All in All good foundation pieces Jaire is a legit stud as is Jenkins in 4 positions .. Savage and Gary lets see this year but if you get 4 all pro's in three drafts plus the mystery of the 2020 not bad at all .

Heck rip on the Love pick all you want which is fair up to this point , but at least it wasn't Isiah Wilson or San Fran giving up the whole future in hopes of getting a franchise QB

I would give Gute a B at this point on his drafts overall. But looking at his first round picks I would give him an A-. Alexander, Savage, Gary have all been excellent picks. Then along came Love which is why I give Gute an A- for his first round picks instead of an A.

In later rounds he has hit big time on Jenkins and Dillon (I think).

Jury is still out on his 3 OL picks in 2020. His 3 receivers picked in 2018 is about D+. One is gone, ESB has been a non-factor and MVS with a 50% catch rate 3 seasons into his career is not worth a roster spot. But here we are.

Thanks, Since '61

Show me a GM who has consistently out performed Gute and I will be impressed. Seems to have hit on at least two plus players, Alexander and Jenkins with Savage, Gary and potentially Dillon being others who are candidates for that category. I’d say that is pretty decent.

We have had some busts in Josh Jones, Burks, Moore and maybe EQ and Jackson as well as some average and maybe still developing like MVS, and at least one of last year’s O linemen. Some remain unknown to a greater or lesser extent like Deguara, Martin and Barnes (undrafted but still chosen).

Overall, the more I consider it, that’s better than the Wolfe rule of thumb. I’d say pretty good overall and possibly will get better with more time. I think one has to also take into account that he seems to be drafting within the context of the Murphy/LaFleur vision after a first year of emergency restocking.

I for one am glad that a GM is not just based on his drafting abilities, but a whole body of work (hiring coaches, drafting quality players, using free agency to fill holes that the draft cannot, picking up players on the waiver wire, developing a winning culture/chemistry/environment, wins and losses, retaining players that could go elsewhere for much more money, and more). The record and the accomplishments of the last 2 years speak very highly of Gute; and I suspect that other teams' fans would love to have someone like him.

Finally a reporter calls out the Packer GM. Two Names the Packers should replace this guy. John Dorsey or Elliot Wolf. You look at the two franchises Dorsey turned around with his drafting and roster moves. Aaron Rodgers has carried the Packers his whole starting career. Once he retires or moves on this team is in the bottom tier. Gute wasted two draft picks last year that might have helped beat TB. The author of this article has pointed out the terrible draft picks we have made in three drafts. There are not enough hits to field a competitive team. We strike out so much in drafting we have to overpay FA’S. Kevin King? What a joke. Get rid of this guy when Rodgers is gone and get John Dorsey. Dorsey has the balls to be a GM. Our current GM doesn’t he’s as bad as Ryan Pace of the Bears

Gute is great and one of the best at his job. Draft included. He is better than John Dorsey and Elliot Wolf together. Let alone one of them, no match at all.
If we hear the the neander gang cry its the safest sign Gute is the best.

Wise that the PACK choose him......paying a lot of dividends.

I'd give the BG team solid grades for most positions but an "F" for QB evaluations. They overvalue athleticism and RAS scores for a position that puts a premium on decision making and ball placement. Both Kizer and Love were athletic QBs with strong arms and poor performance under pressure and inaccurate ball placement. There was sufficient college tape on both of these QBs to understand their strengths and weaknesses. Now the Packers have invested a first and fourth pick on Love hoping they can teach him to think faster and throw more accurately. Yeah. I know women who married bad boys thinking they could reform them too. That doesn't always work out either. Maybe I'm selling the GB coaching staff short and they can turn Love into a cool calm cerebral QB who can read defenses and learn how to harness his athletic skills to throw timely, accurate passes. Great examples of that happening are . . . are? I'm sure there are good examples, I just can't think of any right now. IMO, Love = Bortles 2.0

To declare Gute's GM prowess is no different than trying to immediately grade the draft each year...takes time. Having said that, I believe Gute's biggest flaw is his mismanagement of draft capital relative to perceived player value. None of us have the inside story to what calls are fielded in the war room, but there's no way I can believe he hasn't thrown away several 3rd or 4th round picks inclusive of trading up as well as NOT trading down during the first couple rounds.

The expensive Graham signing is the FA pickup that will forever stick out like a sore thumb.

The 2018 draft is the one we can evaluate better.
A+
Trading down to get a 1st round pick
Getting Alexander
B+
Lazard undrafted player
C
MVS
Maybe St. Brown after all he is a 6th pick that as shown some flashes
Negative D
The rest of the draft
Scott, that kid second name should be inconsistent
Jackson please give him a chance at safety
Oren Burks great athlete no football IQ
Moore, Madison, Looney, Donnerson out of the league
Hunter Bradley, not even an average LS, and you get those after the draft
2019 (we need to wait one more season) for now:
A+
Jenkins
A or B
Gary and Savage. I would have loved Simmons with the 1st pick. If we look at the second part of the season both players improve their game and looked like good starters. If they upgrade their game a little more this draft could be a very good one.
C
Summers he helps on ST.
C-
Strenberger, has a cool name but other than that between injuries and poor play not very optimistic with the kid.
Keke, Hollman,
D
Williams
2020 draft We need more time
Personally I am very very low in Love, but I hope he proves me wrong for the good of the team
Very high in Runyan, Dillon, Deguara and Stephaniak, on that order.
Moderate optimistic with Scott
I don´t think that Hanson and Garvin are going to turn into NFL caliber players.

I don't know if you can honestly say the Packers have hit on a third round pick since Morgan Burnett in 2010. Before 2010 you had Jermichael Finley and James Jones, all between 2007-2010. But there was a big string of misses for a while before that run. I guess my point here is that it is really nice when you develop quality starters in rounds 3-4, and, no, we haven't seen that happen for Gute yet, but the sample size is small.

Well I don't think much of your article either, does that make you a bad writer? Nobody is perfect, that a pretty high standard.

Deleted.

Aaron Rodgers should understand more than anyone the pick of Jordan Love. He was Jordan Love.
Also, at the time of the pick of Jordan Love in the first round, it didn't seem as though the Packers were only a couple players away from the Super Bowl -- especially not in the sense of rookies being the difference makers, and at that rookies selected late in each of the rounds.
After the first season under Matt LaFleur resulted in a startling 13-3 record, it didn't seem like we'd match that in his second year -- especially after the trouncing we took in the NFC Championship from the 49ers.
It seems really hard for any team to win as many as 13 games in consecutive years, really hard. How often has it been done lately?
I'm thinking a lot of fans would have been happy with 10-6 this past season.
It was easy for us to get carried away with expectations when the Packers did actually win 13 games once more, then beat the Rams soundly in the playoffs, and took the Bucs to the end of the championship game.
There's way too much second guessing about that Bucs game. For example, it's unlikely that MLF plays Dillon more than either Jones or Williams -- given the excellent track record of the first two, and the latter's lack of experience, with a fumble in the preceding playoff game.
We should try to learn from our experiences, but not at the cost of beating up our managers, coaches, or players in a discouraging way.
In retrospect, last season was an amazing ride of spectacular success.
***
Now let's not get complacent; let's nail this draft; let's prepare diligently this off season all around -- and let's seize this rare opportunity at a Super Bowl with many of our players returning, and lots of good past experiences to build on.
It's always good to be a little wary, and to continue to ask hard questions, but we do well to appreciate recent gains of major proportions, to keep the negatives under control, and to stress the positives for next season.
It seems to me that fans can do a lot to not only hold a team accountable, but also to lift up a team to its highest potential.
P.S. One could argue that the pick of Love motivated Rodgers to his best season since 2012. Also, it may have helped us to get Love's high school teammate, Krys Barnes, who so far seems at least at the level of any fourth-rounder we lost by trading up for Love.

I give Bahk credit for saying Aaron would essentially blaze in 2020 right after Love was drafted. He was spot on. I'll take the under on 13 wins in 2021.

I’d like to say that this has been one of the better discussions. Even some people who are notorious for crappy logic and personal attacks have made some good points worth considering. Some people who I never read actually made some very good arguments. I wish it was like this more often.

Below is an article from PFF that shows all nfl teams’ draft success from 2017-20. Packers are in the lower end of the league, according to this analysis, for this period. However, adjusting for draft position, and position chosen, they move up slightly, towards the middle of the league. As this takes into consideration a four year period, the 2020 Packers draft likely caused the deflated numbers as their first three picks either didn’t play or played sparingly. However, four of the top five picks could be major contributors this season, which would likely boost them up the rankings going forward. We won’t know Love’s true value for three more years, but as the article notes, qbs have a greater potential to add value than any other position. An interesting read but note the final analysis towards the end: when they compare GMs over longer periods of time, high levels of success are not consistent. This may suggest a rather significant degree of randomness or luck is at play. To see this play out, look at the redrafts to see where the initial evaluations and draft positions were off. It turns out, it is very often.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-historical-draft-success-for-all-32-nfl-teams

This is a REALLY hard one. Teds last couple drafts ileft a lot to replenish. If Gutey went 100% bpa due to overwhelming long term issues, it’s possible his picks haven’t organically overtaken the prior guys. But if that’s the case, they’re running out of time to prove Gutey right.

The draft is and always has been a crap shoot.

The reason is because you're not simply evaluating a players current talent level. You're trying to predict a player's ability to grow and mature- their ceiling and their ability to reach it. That's 100% projection- it's a crap shoot.

The sooner fans learn not to grade players based on a sliding scale dependent on what round they were drafted in, the sooner fans start to see the bigger picture. Every team in the NFL is concerned with one thing; putting together the best 53 man roster that they can within the confines of a salary cap floor and the salary cap ceiling. It really doesn't matter what round a player was drafted in.

Gute has filled some holes. He hasnt missed a whole bunch. The biggest question that always needs to be asked - what has happened over the past decade of success that has caused a great many of our inner circle to be poached by other teams. From Reggie Mackenzie to John Schneider to John Dorsey Highsmith. Eventually if they are not replaced by as qualified staff - the GM is buying a pig in a poke. TT used to work non-stop but later in his career he had more misses than hits. The draft is always 20-20 after the fact but when you look back at our drafts in the final few years of TT's years - you will find some big time misses on guys we passed on and became Pro-bowlers for the same position that we selected or when we selected a guy who didnt play much for the team. Just look at the 2015 draft.

Your Logic doesn't stand up.
1) Weak to make a 4 starter point, when including rookies, as a bad thing sign of draft production. Why:
-Rookies starting on NFCCG Teams has a lower frequency than the rest of the league
-You never stated what is considered a good amount of rookie starters or when draft picks should start so there's zero context. Are we to assume that 4 starters is good or bad? Why - compared to what? there's no bar set (quantitatively)
-This is a league of sub packages like never before.
-JD could of been considered a starter
-RG should be considered a starter
ST players are starters though I can see why they wouldn't be included but they do make an immediate impact and are starters (very low positional Value)

Also I see no calculation other than "Starter" to the value the Draft pick. Performance and positional value are key to any evaluation. JK Scott Started at punter vs JA Starter at CB same Starter value- even substitute Martin for Scott
Considering where the Packers drafted and the trade (which I commend you for including - most don't) will impact starter probability and GM draft acumen.
Examples
JA is a grand slam at a Top Positional Value position
Savage is a triple - At a Mid positional Value Position
Jenkins is a Triple - At a Mid but if he does end up playing OT it will go up
Gary is a double with HR potential - At a Top Positional Value

Thats two drats with Two Studs at Top Positional Value positions and Two at Mid. That in itself is an A plus over 2 years plus an additional 1st

Way too early to evaluate last years draft and any football Gm would tell you that you sign FA for immediate needs and draft for the future (even more so when drafting practically last in every rd) So very little value should be assigned to rookie impact
-If Love starts and is avg for the Packers at anytime it's a good pick due to positional value. let alone the value it has already brought in giving the Packers Leverage/Options at QB
-AJ Dillon will be like a starter and kept the packers from making desperate moves - Just compare AJones signing to KK - Though I'm not a big fan of that pick - I understand it for what ML wants to do and AJ/JM FA situation but Lack of positional Value
Ditto for JD - like a starter/pick made due to scheme fit/lack of positional value
IMO Gute gave ML the pieces he advocated for.

Gute if graded should get an A- with an incomplete for 2020 draft
TGR made a very interesting comment about how few hits Gute has had with an abnormally high amount of draft picks in the 3-7 range. gute has not nearly had the success of TT, or as much as one would expect from a good drafter. It's a good point, yet one that when grading his first two drafts is mute when it comes to production. When he hit so well early, you don't need to hit on the later picks , which statistically are longshots to be of much impact. TT survived on those to a certain extent. In the end it doesn't matter how he does it, the GM just has to produce and Gute has.

Being a Good GM is not just about drafting but (Noted your articles scope is the draft)
UDFA
FA
Keeping Your FA
Cap management
Coach

When including the above having hit on:
UDFA
Barnes
Lazard
Lancaster - Another case when just using starter doesn't work for eval
Patrick

And he has been Good with FA both big Ines
Z (Big Win both performance positional value)
Amos (Big Win)
turner Win (Flexibility really paid off)
Preston (one good / one bad year)
Tonyan (was he still TT?)

Bridge FA (with very shrewd contract)
Kirsey - Avg
Wagner - Good
Tramon - Good

Embarrassingly unprofessional analysis for someone supposedly authoring books. I won’t be reading them.