Grading the Pack - Week 16 (Offense & Defense)

There’s usually not a lot to take away from a 16-0 loss at home in a meaningless game on Christmas Eve-eve, but on Saturday we were finally able to get a better look at some players that fans have been clamoring for. Michael Clark and Reggie Gilbert were given their first action of the season and we also were able to get extended looks at players like Lenzy Pipkins, Trevor Davis, Lucas Patrick, Montravius Adams, Vince Biegel, Chris Odom, and even a cursory glance at Donatello Brown.

The results, as expected, were mixed. These were players that don’t have a ton of experience and were just finally getting their feet wet in the NFL waters. And while the play was inconsistent, at times, the flashes were bright. Reggie Gilbert showed quickness, fast hands and better technique than I ever would have expected. Michael Clark made the incredible diving catch that still has fans buzzing and Lenzy Pipkins made a touchdown saving tackle one-on-one in the open field against the shifty Jerrick McKinnon.

It’s not a lot to take away from an embarrassing defeat during a lost season, but at least it’s something. Players like Reggie Gilbert and Michael Clark are amazing stories in and of themselves and make them easy to cheer for. For their sakes and for the benefit of the Packers going forward, let’s hope they all make the most of their extended opportunities.

Top 3 Offensive Performers

Lane Taylor +3.05
David Bakhtiari +2.00
Lucas Patrick +1.95

Top 3 Defensive Performers

Kenny Clark +1.95
Dean Lowry +0.45
Morgan Burnett +0.10

Bottom 3 Offensive Performers

Lance Kendricks -1.80
Trevor Davis -1.70
Geronimo Allison -1.50

Bottom 3 Defensive Performers

Davon House -1.35
Vince Biegel -1.00
Jermaine Whitehead -0.95

Quarterback

Brett Hundley -1.2

Hundley’s final line for the day was 17/40, 130 yards, 0 touchdowns, 2 interceptions and 5 rushes for 48 yards. Needless to say I was expecting a much worse grade the -1.2 based on those numbers. This is why watching the tape is always better than reviewing the stats. Make no mistake about it, Hundley struggled in this game, but he also was plagued by a plethora of drops and receivers who couldn’t get open consistently. Green Bay also couldn’t get their run game started which hurt Hundley as well. His interception in the red zone was brutal but it was also an awful route by Kendricks. It certainly wasn’t a strong performance by Hundley, but it wasn’t quite as bad as it seemed on paper either.

Running Back

Jamaal Williams +0.45
Aaron Jones +0.15
Aaron Ripkowski -0.2

Williams and Jones combined for 18 rushes while Hundley had 40 pass attempts. That formula was never going to be a recipe for success. The truth here is that Williams and Jones never really got an opportunity to put up big numbers due to their lack of carries. And while the offensive line played ridiculously well in the passing game, they weren’t opening huge holes in the run game. Overall Williams did what he could but didn’t have much to work with.

Wide Receiver & Tight End

Randall Cobb +0.3
Jeff Janis +0.15
Richard Rodgers -0.2
Michael Clark -0.45
Jordy Nelson -1.25
Geronimo Allison -1.5
Trevor Davis -1.7
Lance Kendricks -1.8

The receivers and tight ends had an absolutely miserable day against Minnesota. Some of the numbers here are just brutal: Cobb 22 yards on 7 targets, Clark 36 yards on 9 targets, Nelson 11 yards on 5 targets, Allison 9 yards on 3 targets, Davis 0 yards on 1 target and Kendricks 36 yards on 9 targets. The receivers weren’t getting open with any level of consistency and the drops, especially in clutch situations really killed the offense. Michael Clark had the catch of the day but he also was a go-to receiver on 3rd and 4th down and wasn’t able to come up with catches at key points in the game. Trevor Davis meanwhile never even attempted to catch the deep ball that seemed well within reach. At the risk of bringing out the Jeff Janis truthers, I actually liked what I saw out of Janis on the field Saturday. He looked explosive and was a bit better in his routes than he’s shown in the past. I actually wouldn’t mind seeing a bit more of Janis in the finale.

More on Nelson from Chris: https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/packers-at-a-crossroads-with-jordy-nelson-551

More on Clark from Zach: https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/wr-michael-clark-venturing-into-foreign-territory-331

Offensive Line

Lane Taylor +3.05
David Bakhtiari +2.00
Lucas Patrick +1.95
Justin McCray +1.6
Corey Linsley +0.2
Jason Spriggs +0.05

I noted during the game that there were a lot of offensive linemen who worked their asses off in frigid cold temperatures and were rewarded with no points and a home loss. The linemen as a whole played awesome. They certainly benefited from the cold and field conditions but they consistently gave Hundley time to throw and try to find open receivers. It was an especially amazing performance from Lucas Patrick who wasn’t even expected to play and played the entirety of the game with a huge cast on his right hand. He came in and was the 3rd highest rated player of anyone on the team Sunday. Kudos to him for being prepared and performing at a high level. With Linsley & Evans being free agents, it’s not out of the question that your starting offensive line could be Bakhtiari – Taylor – Patrick – McCray – Bulaga to start 2018.

Defensive Line

Kenny Clark +1.95
Dean Lowry +0.45
Quinton Dial -0.05
Mike Daniels -0.25
Montravius Adams -0.45

More on Adams (and Biegel) from Zach: https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/montravius-adams-vince-biegels-stunted-rookie-seasons-were-expected-340

Kenny Clark solidified himself as the MVP of the Packers defense on Saturday. Truth be told there isn’t even an argument to be had. I know Daniels is the bigger name (and maybe even better player) but his injuries have hampered him all year and he just hasn’t had the impact that Clark has had throughout the course of the season. Seeing Clark jump off the page at such a young age is so promising and was one of the very few bright spots on the team this year. He was unequivocally worth Green Bay’s 1st round pick a season ago and is starting to look like a steal at the end of round one. I know there’s some Ted haters out there right now but give him credit for nailing their top pick in 2016.

Edge

Chris Odom +0.05
Reggie Gilbert -0.05
Kyler Fackrell -0.55
Ahmad Brooks -0.65
Vince Biegel -1.0

The buzz on Saturday was rightfully about the emergence of Reggie Gilbert. Like most of the young players his performance was inconsistent and he was a liability in the run game—lacking the musculature to hold up at the point of attack. That said, his quickness and hand usage was some of the best I’ve seen from any pass rusher on the team this year. It really jumped off the tape and was a stark contrast to the slower, methodical pass rush of players like Brooks, Fackrell, and even Perry. Gilbert has a ways to go to be a full-time productive player but the signs are there for him to breakout if he has a big offseason. If he can add a bit more functional strength without losing his quickness… look out. Maybe Gilbert can follow in the footsteps of another 6’3’’ Packer edge rusher who sat his first season on the practice squad… Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila.

Linebacker

Jake Ryan +0.05
Blake Martinez +0.0

Both Ryan & Martinez had solid days and were consistently around the football. I’ve actually seen them both shed blockers quicker than they had been over the first half of the season. While both players were active in the run game, they both were caught biting on play action too hard (a common trend throughout the season) and didn’t grade out as well in the pass game.

Cornerback

Lenzy Pipkins +0.1
Donatello Brown +0.05
Josh Hawkins -0.65
Davon House -1.35

Donatello Brown played his first and only snap of his career on Sunday. His task – lineup 1x1 against Stephon Diggs, one of the shiftiest receivers in the NFL, on a play action fake with Diggs running a disgusting double move. To Brown’s credit he shadowed Diggs the entire way and Diggs couldn’t break free until after the play had broken down and Diggs made a final move to shake free at the end. Overall it was a really nice snap from the undrafted free agent. Unfortunately, on the other side of the field, Lenzy Pipkins was burned on a double move on the exact same play. While Pipkins struggled with double moves, his overall play was aggressive and graded out as a net positive. As mentioned earlier his tackle in the open field on McKinnon saved a touchdown and forced Minnesota to kick the field goal.

Safety

Morgan Burnett +0.1
Marwin Evans +0.1
Josh Jones +0.05
HaHa Clinton-Dix -0.7
Jermaine Whitehead -0.95

There were two plays that sort of summed up the play of the safeties this season. On a third down play HaHa Clinton-Dix perfectly baited Keenum as HaHa left his receiver, jumped the route, and was in a perfect position to pick off the pass. Unfortunately Clinton-Dix wasn’t able to hold onto the pass and Minnesota was able to punt the ball and push Green Bay back. The turnover could have been what Green Bay needed to flip this game.

On another play Clinton-Dix faked going backwards to try and fool Keenum before he quickly drove to make a move on the underneath receiver and breakup a big third down pass. In this instance, however, Clinton-Dix’s move backwards took him so far downfield that he just didn’t have the speed to get to the receiver in time and he was a second late. The receiver caught the pass and the Vikings kept the drive alive. The lack of turnovers, inability to get off the field on third downs, and safeties lining up so far downfield that they can’t make plays on the ball are just a few of the many problems Green Bay has had on defense this season.

To find an updated, running total of the grades throughout the season, click here: https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/grading-the-pack-regular-season-totals-454

Note: In these articles I often add tweets from Ben Fennell, Zach Kruse & Dusty Evely. All have been gracious enough to allow me to do so and are phenomenal follows. Please make sure you are supporting and following each of them! Thank you!

How I Grade

  • Each player starts by getting a zero or neutral grade on a play. If they performed as expected on a play, their grade stays at zero.
  • For a slightly above or below average play, the player gets graded -0.1 or +0.1. The vast majority of grades on the vast majority of plays are graded -0.1, 0, or +0.1.
  • The highest and lowest grades on an individual play are +2.0 and -2.0 respectively. These would be large, game-changing plays.
  • I won’t grade a play negatively if I cannot tell which player was at fault.
  • Most of the time it’s impossible to tell the play, so I’m not grading on the execution of the play call as an NFL coach would.
  • The goal of this exercise is to grade every snap over the course of the season to get a long-term view of which performers are performing well and which are not meeting expectations. This is very similar to what Pro Football Focus tries to achieve. Is it perfect? No. But what you are getting is a consistent grader who is watching specifically Packer games and putting multiple hours into every week to breakdown film and assign grades.
  • Grades are for offense and defense only (including two point conversions). Special teams does not factor in.

 

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Andy is a graduate of UW-Oshkosh and owns & operates the Pack-A-Day Podcast. Andy has taken multiple courses in NFL scouting and is an Editor for Packer Report. Andy grew up in Green Bay and is a lifelong season ticket holder - follow him on Twitter @AndyHermanNFL!

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Comments (5)

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freddisch's picture

December 29, 2017 at 04:11 pm

Good job. I find your analysis among the best

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Turophile's picture

December 30, 2017 at 05:11 am

Great stuff as always Andrew. After the last game, will you do piece on the lines of "What I learned about the Packers", having studied game film all year......

Your kind of analysis must give you many insights. The strengths and weaknesses of individual players. Who looks like they will be a keeper going forward. What you think of the offensive and defensive schemes (and how they fit the players), etc. The raw scores of players tell a lot, but not all.

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Since'61's picture

December 30, 2017 at 08:24 am

Andy - great job as usual. I don't mean to create more work for you but do you have a methodology for grading Special Team players such as Vogel and the kick/punt returners? No need to grade every ST player, but players like Vogel and the return men have an impact on the game and I think their grades could factor into the performance of the rest of the team. For example, Vogel's punt impact the play of the defense if he is able to pin the opponent inside their own 10 yard line or Davis impacting the offense by making a fair catch at the 5 or failing to make a return when he has room to run. Not a big deal, just a suggestion. I enjoy your articles. Thanks, Since '61

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croatpackfan's picture

December 30, 2017 at 08:50 am

Thank you... I'm waiting for your last insight for the seasoin in the first week of the New Year...
All the best!

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Spock's picture

December 30, 2017 at 10:24 am

Andy, I (as do many others) appreciate all the hard work you put into this! I had a hard time watching this game ONCE, let alone all the extra viewing/analysis that you do. I always learn something from these gifs and your analysis. Thank you for doing this incredible job all year.

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