Front Office Has Been Here Before with Rodgers

  Deja vu for Brian Gutekunst.

As I watched the Los Angeles Rams play in the Super Bowl, I found myself getting frustrated.  How, I wondered, can they afford to amass this all star team under the current salary cap system?  How do you squeeze in salaries for a roster that includes Aaron Donald, Matthew Stafford, Jalen Ramsey, Von Miller, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Odell Beckham, Leonard Floyd and Andrew Whitworth, among others.  Surely they must be in even worse shape than the Packers when it comes to 2022 cap space. 

 

I got even more frustrated when I went to overthecap.com to see where they stood on the cap compared to Green Bay.  While the Packers are currently projected at being more than $50 million over the limit for 2022, the Rams, despite their long list of superstars, are just a manageable $13.5 million over.  How can this be? 

 

Well, for one thing, Beckham and Miller are free agents this year.  But so is Davante Adams. 

 

A quick glance at individual cap hits provides a better answer.  The average cap hit for the top ten players for the Rams is $17.1 million.  The average cap hit for the top ten Packer players is $18.5 million.   However, if you take out the hits for the two starting quarterbacks, Green Bay’s average plummets to $13.9 million, while the Rams are at $14.8 million.   

 

Aaron Rodgers’ humongous $46.6 million hit jumps off the page.  It is more than $23 million over what Matthew Stafford’s deal calls for this year.  In fact, it is more than the 2022 cap hits for Stafford and Jalen Ramsey combined.  It’s $19 million more than the second highest hit on Green Bay’s team (Za’darius Smith at $27.6).   

 

The Packers can reduce the hit somewhat by trading or extending Rodgers, or by his retirement.  But at most the cap savings would be in the $19 to $25 million range, not nearly enough to bail the franchise out of its deficit.  Several other players will have to be reworked, and some of them released.  That’s going to be true regardless of what happens with their signal caller. 

 

It’s a mess.  But looking back, it’s hard to see where the Packers had a choice.  The team was in the midst of back to back losing seasons in 2017 and ‘18.  They had a 35 year old quarterback still considered to be one of the best in the game.  It was at that point the front office made a critical decision.  Rather than jettison their only superstar and rebuild from scratch, they chose to extend him and try to rebuild around him.  In order to do the extension, they had to make him the highest paid player in the history of the game.  In August of 2018 he signed a new deal which ran through 2023 at an average of $33 million per year. 

 

At the time, it seemed like the right call.  The team got better with the emergence of several other good players, who in turn also had to get paid.  However, as the budget swelled, the need to push back money in Rodgers’ deal became greater.  Then came the drama last summer.  Again, the front office was at a crossroads.  Trade him now?  Or accede to his demand to void the last year of his contract?   Sensing they had a strong enough roster to get to a Super Bowl, the front office went all in to bring back QB12 for what Rodgers would tweet as a “last dance”.   The manipulation of his original extension culminated in the massive cap number the team faces today.  Worth it, the Packers figured, for one more run at another Lombardi trophy. 

 

You know the rest.  The gamble failed.  One way or another, whether Rodgers stays or not, the team is in for the rebuild they so desperately wanted to avoid.  The cap limit will force that.  How drastic the cutback will be remains to be seen.   

 

Still, back in 2018, the Packers did what any of us likely would have done.  They did whatever it took to keep their star quarterback.  Then, they did it again last summer. They felt they had to. After all, most every team competing for a Super Bowl has a franchise quarterback, right? 

 

So here we are.  Another Super Bowl come and gone. If you think about it, the Packers are basically in the same situation as four years ago.  The same situation as last summer.  Start over?  Or try to ride your future Hall of Famer for a few more seasons?   

 

What’s that old saying about doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results?  

 

  

 

  

 

-----------------------------------

Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.

NFL Categories: 
6 points

Comments (107)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
NickPerry's picture

February 14, 2022 at 07:08 am

OMG... Will the day please come when Aaron Charles Rodgers informs the Green Bay Packers he'd like to play in 2022 but he'd like to be traded. Then Gute can start doing what he's paid to do and that's what's best for the Green Bay Packers.

Like it or not, IMO trading Rodgers is the ONLY answer in what's best for the Packers. Just like Kevin Greene once told CMIII in SB45, "It Is Time"! Gute knows it, Ball knows it, and HOPEFULLY Mark Murphy understands it. Despite what I think of Mark Murphy and Ball, these guys are smart fellows, even though this isn't rocket science.

It's time to play poker with the few teams it make's the most sense to play with, starting with Denver, and including even Tampa Bay...You play with who is WILLING to give you what you want. You may not agree with trading him to TB, but my ONLY concern is what's BEST for the Green Bay Packers, and the maximum return the Packers can get for him.

Right now the Broncos are suggesting they love the QB from Pittsburgh, Kenny Pickett. Suggest it all day long, but if you want to win the SB next year or the 2 or 3 of the following seasons, you'll get off all that draft capital you have, get Hackett the QB he wants AND I'd bet my last dollar John Elway wants, and make the deal.

Insanity is repeating the same thing over and over expecting a different result. In certain 12 step programs it's a saying that makes a TON of sense to many of us who SUCCEED in staying sober. The poor souls who ignore the saying or don't prescribe to it, are almost certain to FAIL. I've stuck up for Gute and believed in Gute since he was named GM. Pull off this trade and the benefits will come. Maybe not in 2022, but for YEARS after.

#Get it Done!

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packerbackerjim's picture

February 14, 2022 at 08:13 am

To me, the market for AR was set last night with the Rams winning the SB with Stafford, and therefore increasing the likelihood of a trade.

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Coldworld's picture

February 14, 2022 at 09:02 am

Unfortunately being smart doesn’t always go with having the courage to make difficult and perhaps unpopular choices, or to be able to accept that a window of opportunity has closed.

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NickPerry's picture

February 14, 2022 at 02:49 pm

Amen CW... IF the Packers make that deal then I think you've hit the nail on the head which is actually even SCARIER!

IF the Packers sign Rodgers to an extension then my first question would be, if you couldn't even get out of the Divisional Round, win one rat ass game, with THAT roster, then how in the hell are you going to pay Rodgers that money, lost several other players while doing so, and win it next year or even the year after.

Maybe it happens in 2023 if they can shove EVERYTHING into future VIOD years, and the HIT on EVERY draft pick this year.

God I miss Bob Harlan and even Ted Thompson...The HEALTHY version of Ted. One thing would be certain... There's no way Thompson would even entertain signing Rodgers to an extension and putting the Packers in harms way for the future.

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Oppy's picture

February 14, 2022 at 07:04 pm

Mark Murphy was at the helm and Gutekunst in the wings with a front row seat when the train left the station.

I don't think courage would be the issue with those two. They've been there, done that, and have first hand experience on what to expect.

If there is hesitancy on the part of the front office, it's likely either because they truly want to keep Rodgers (which I don't believe is the case), or it's because, as another poster submitted, maybe the board is applying pressure to keep Rodgers.

I don't find either likely; I think we are watching a chess match. There is posturing going on. I believe (and hope) the Packers AND Rodgers already know they are parting ways; they're just going through the dance of presentation that it's a horrible breakup that neither wanted but both ultimately concede was inevitable (which I don't believe for a minute, but it's all about saving face for all involved.)

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

February 14, 2022 at 04:08 pm

Agreed!

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gkarl's picture

February 14, 2022 at 07:15 am

If Rogers would consider a team friendly contract restructure to allow him to finish his career has a GBP and help the team keep/maintain quality players around him in quest of another super bowl, I'm for keeping AR. I'm guessing maybe an extra 2 yrs at 50 mil with maybe a void year or two.

I don't think AR would agree to that, so sadly I think it's time to trade him for both his sake and the franchises. I hope I'm surprised though.

2 points
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Handsback's picture

February 14, 2022 at 07:33 am

I would disagree with that 2018 contract. It was a season too soon. Let him play the year out and explore the options. It was an emotional decision verses a strategic one.

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jurp's picture

February 14, 2022 at 08:45 am

And, as several of us here were saying at the time, the correct time to trade Rodgers was last spring, not this spring.

5 points
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dobber's picture

February 14, 2022 at 09:12 am

That was the "ARod defeats McCarthy" contract. The team chose #12 and MM was soon shown the door.

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coolhand's picture

February 14, 2022 at 11:01 am

I agree with that, AND I agreed with the team's decision. I was never a big fan of MM and was glad to see him go. I feel different about AR and hope he could stay, but I don't think it's possible and a trade would be best for him and the team.

1 points
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Swisch's picture

February 14, 2022 at 08:15 am

In the fabled history of the NFL, it seems apt to say that Aaron Rodgers is the hare, and Matthew Stafford the tortoise who persevered to win the race.

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coolhand's picture

February 14, 2022 at 11:02 am

And, in the playoffs when the Rams needed a late game drive, Stafford was able to get it done and AR was not.

6 points
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Swisch's picture

February 14, 2022 at 11:33 am

As the ego of Rodgers has grown ever larger, his accomplishments as a team leader have grown ever smaller,
Yet he doesn't seem to get it.
I was hoping this season he would grow, but it doesn't seemed to have happened to any significant increase.

6 points
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Packers1985's picture

February 14, 2022 at 02:09 pm

The problem is not only just 12 even 17 falls short in the play offs. If we take last night as an example you could see that whole world knows that he is going to throw to Kupp and still Kupp delivered.
I think it's better we move on from both Adams and Arod and start building for the future.

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croatpackfan's picture

February 14, 2022 at 02:32 pm

Maybe, just maybe that was because Stafford spread his throws to many receivers through the game, so D was not allowed to concentrate on only one receiver?

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SanLobo's picture

February 14, 2022 at 04:25 pm

The Rams Defense won that game. Burrow was driving and all he needed was another ten yards to get into FG range to send it into OT. Remember, their FG kicker has been perfect this year. The defense stopped them on a third and one (Aaron Donald) and again on the following fourth and one with an Aaron Donald sack to end the game.

6 points
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Since'61's picture

February 14, 2022 at 08:16 am

The Packers management continues to wrestle with the decision of whether or not to change the team’s name to the Green Bay Rodgers or the Aaron Rodgers Packers. In either case it looks like the Packers iconic Helmet G will be replaced with an R.

In other news Trump claims that the Rams stole the Super Bowl with points magically appearing very late in the game and that the Bengals can still win the championship if Mike Pence has the courage to overturn the results.

Sorry everyone I just can’t seriously respond to yet another Rodgers article. Thanks, Since ‘61

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jurp's picture

February 14, 2022 at 08:47 am

When the time comes, we could simply borrow Washington's helmet from 1970 and remove the feather. I wonder if AR would let us keep the green and gold? What IS his favorite color anyway?

3 points
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Since'61's picture

February 14, 2022 at 08:58 am

His favorite color is a beautiful mystery. Thanks, Since '61

5 points
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x24's picture

February 14, 2022 at 09:26 am

His favorite color is green, $ame as everyone else

5 points
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Rebecca's picture

February 15, 2022 at 11:19 am

Now I’ve got a big crush on you.

1 points
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PhantomII's picture

February 14, 2022 at 04:47 pm

Green$$$$$$$

1 points
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Duneslick's picture

February 14, 2022 at 12:59 pm

Admin remove Politics

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calabasa's picture

February 14, 2022 at 06:37 pm

Since ‘61 can say whatever the hell he wants.

7 points
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Oppy's picture

February 14, 2022 at 07:07 pm

This actually might be the comment of the century.

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croatpackfan's picture

February 14, 2022 at 08:19 am

Many of us, here on this page are hoping that FO, HC and MM were expressing their wish to keep Diva just to rise the price even more.

I do not thinking they are thinking about trade. I truly believe they realy want to keep choker Diva. Maybe not all of them, but I believe MM is the main decision maker in this case and he expects all of FO (BG) are just following instruction. MLF is on MM band wagon.

What is the meaning of that? Packers realy depends on AR decision, not the decision from the Packers. And for me it is something that Packers board should step and fire MM and let BG to do the job. If AR decide to be traded and stay firm with the decision, I'll forgive him all his sh*ts he did last 5 years and I'll be the first to vote Packers to retire his number and to enshrine him in Packers HOF as soon as he finish his career.

Unfortunately, I doubt that will happen.

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Coldworld's picture

February 14, 2022 at 09:13 am

If Rodgers is really so talented at this point yet we flame out in such similar ways, isn’t it time to ask why? Something is wrong when the same failings produce the same results in similar fashion over and over. There is no rational basis for denying that at this point.

If Rodgers is currently that good, something else is very significantly as wrong. It’s not just STs, it’s not just receivers, it’s not just the D …. Unless we have a credible explanation then we are just tilting at windmills. More and more I think there a risk that the team and we are missing or refusing to face up to the fact that the problems lie in the choice of LaFleur and or the Rodgers/LaFleur dynamic.

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Packers1985's picture

February 14, 2022 at 02:15 pm

The problem is the whole team chokes. Sometimes it's the Qb sometimes it's the defense sometimes it's the WR's and sometimes it's the ST's.
That has been the story with Gb these last 11 years. Atleast 2 units choking in the game either offense and defense or defense and st's or offense and st's.

4 points
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SanLobo's picture

February 14, 2022 at 04:41 pm

The Lion’s forum said the same things and applauded the trade of Stafford. It turns out Stafford wasn’t the problem.
This was the most balanced I’d seen GBs offense and defense in a long time, but ST seriously regressed this year. ST has always been weak, but rarely have they ranked 32nd in the league. I think folks tend to look for a simple answer to complex problems, but the answer lies in a well balanced team across all three aspects of the game, and that requires a complex solution.
I personally think Gutenkunst and company really worked this year to continuously optimize the team, but failed to prioritize the failings of STs. I think the Front Office will find a solution, complex as it is, and bring the pieces together. I don’t pretend to know what that solution will be, but I think the team can and will get better.

1 points
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PhantomII's picture

February 14, 2022 at 05:15 pm

The OL WITH LT(BAK) healthy, Jenkins , Myers, Nijman and Turner would be OL, problem it has not happened.
The Elite DL has kicked the Packers OL butt all over the place. We have a #1 WR in Adams and the rest are #4's. Our TE's are not close to what the Eagles had when they were imposing their will. We have a hammer Dillon and a pretty good second in Taylor yet ML does not use him when hurt. ML is poor at in game changes. He needs someone else gathering info during the game to come up with effective changes and honestly needs to give up calling the game. AR is pretty poor at spreading the ball around and get's much worse the higher quality the opponent gets. The Defense is missing a FS who is fast, really good nose for the ball and is rock solid tackler and a stud DL next to Clark. On Offense AJ is a weapon, Adams is a Weapon, and Dillon is a load to stop. We are missing a very good TE and a #2 WR who is good enough to be a #1 after Adams leaves. The rest are pretty Average.

2 points
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pacman's picture

February 14, 2022 at 10:34 am

Do you really believe everything you hear from the team? What do expect them to say?
Even if they want to 100% trade AR, they aren't about to show their hand to a possible partner.

4 points
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murf7777's picture

February 14, 2022 at 11:59 am

I agree about they wouldn't show their hand, but they also don't have to say anything publicly. Why state your preference unless you want it out there for the reason to negotiate a better trade deal?

2 points
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dobber's picture

February 14, 2022 at 12:01 pm

Because not saying anything at all also tips their hand...and pisses off the fan base.

1 points
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stockholder's picture

February 14, 2022 at 08:22 am

Why is this a Merry-go-Round? The FO want him back. Rodgers is not walking a high wire here. The Drama ended. Beating the drum won't take you back. This team is only as good as it's last game. And for all the praise about Gutey. Why is this such a problem if they're in agreement? Rodgers is a Legend. He's won the MVP. Yet where's the job appreciation? The option here; he's the best QB in the NFL. And nobody can do a better job in their opinion. Rodgers still is a hero to many. Whats wrong with that?

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jurp's picture

February 14, 2022 at 08:49 am

"he's the best QB in the NFL."

No, the best QB in the NFL today is the one who won the Super Bowl yesterday.

AR is a stat hound, not a good TEAM quarterback.

1 points
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stockholder's picture

February 14, 2022 at 09:00 am

Thats just hate talk. He won the MVP. Not Stafford. And the officials gave that game to the rams.

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Coldworld's picture

February 14, 2022 at 09:37 am

MVP doesn’t mean that much to me, especially in a year where the debate was really one of who really could be justified, not who seized it. I did not see the best QB in the league against the 49ers or the Bucs. I wonder how we do against those Ds and I can’t help feeling that a lot of the answer is that a lot would depend on how much Dillon did or was allowed to.

1 points
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YouAskedForThis's picture

February 14, 2022 at 10:13 am

"Rodgers is a Legend. He's won the MVP... he's the best QB in the NFL"

Many confuse that winning the MVP means he was the years most valuable player...including playoffs. I'll grant you Rodgers deserved the MVP the way it is awarded - for his regular season play.....but if it included playoffs he would not be in the running.

Rodgers legacy is that he was a great regular season QB but came up short on many occasions in the playoffs.

Big time players make big time plays ... he withered at crunch time on multiple occasions.

10 points
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Packers1985's picture

February 14, 2022 at 02:21 pm

Big time plays dont happen with just one person i.e, the QB itself. It depends on the big time receiver and also the big time defense and ofcourse the QB.
You can take yesterday's example how Kupp drove that last scoring drive along with Stafford and then the defense when bengals were almost in the scoring zone the Ram's defense stopped the bengals twice at 1 yard more to get to keep the game alive

1 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

February 14, 2022 at 02:23 pm

Apparently, he has Kupp-o-vision...

3 points
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croatpackfan's picture

February 14, 2022 at 02:37 pm

You repeated yourself, so I will take as permission to do the same:

"Maybe, just maybe that was because Stafford spread his throws to many receivers through the game, so D was not allowed to concentrate on only one receiver?"

0 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

February 14, 2022 at 02:58 pm

Kupp saved the drive with the end-around on 4th and One. He snagged Five catches on the 79 yard Winning drive, including the TD. Stafford locked on Him when it came to crunch time. The Playmakers Performed.

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LeotisHarris's picture

February 14, 2022 at 06:34 pm

"Maybe, just maybe that was because Stafford spread his throws to many receivers through the game, so D was not allowed to concentrate on only one receiver?"

Indeed he did, Croat, including two gifts to the opposing team. If that DB for the 49ers had a pair of hands, Stafford would have been watching from home yesterday. The Rams won, Yeah! Their Defense carried the day. Matt Stafford was along for the ride. He's no hero.

2 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 15, 2022 at 05:30 am

Davante-vision does not explain everything.

Kupp: 191 targets out of 602 attempts for LAR (31.73%).
Adams saw 169 out of 570 for GB (29.65%).

Great receivers get tons of targets. Kupp saw 10 targets on 40 attempts against Cincy, so down a trifle from the regular season but still a lot. Kupp got 42 targets out of 142 passing attempts in LAR's 4 playoff games this year, which is 30% or about their season average.

Great receivers get tons of targets. To be thorough, AR attempted 29 passes versus SF and Adams saw 11 of them, which is indeed a whopping 38%. OTOH, Adams caught 9 or 11 for an 82% catch rate. Very efficient. One time to the well too many since Lazard was about to come open. As it happens, Stafford targeted Kupp on 38% of his passes in the Rams' victory over ARI in the playoff wild card game.

2 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

February 14, 2022 at 02:48 pm

Kupp won the Playoffs MVP.

3 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

February 14, 2022 at 02:21 pm

A Vegas call, sponsored by wal-mart.

3 points
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packergal's picture

February 14, 2022 at 05:59 pm

Stockholder,

The "best QB in NFL" has 18 "come from behind 4th quarter wins" in his entire career.
Brady has 42 come from behind 4th quarter wins.
And...lookie, lookie...Stafford has 34 come behind 4th quarter wins.

While Rodgers may be the best passer of the football; he is not the best QB in NFL.
Perhaps being a team-oriented game winner is as important as amassing passing stats only.

4 points
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Packers1985's picture

February 15, 2022 at 01:05 pm

4th qtr comebacks don't tell the whole story. If a qb is that great then why did they fall behind in the first 3 qtrs. Most of the times packers don't fall behind like lions do, so i dont think that's a fair comparison.

0 points
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HarryHodag's picture

February 14, 2022 at 08:32 am

NFL Network reporting the team is talking to Rodgers about a new deal spread over a number of years but in essence around $50 million a year for two years. They can actually reduced the cap hit with this method.

It seems Rodgers in open to it, according to the report.

My main fear is the team simply prolongs the inevitable. They will hit the wall sooner or later. As much as Rodgers play is critical to success, the health of the team overall is a chief concern.

Rodgers back with a diminished defense does little good. They need to also find a way to retain some players at wide receiver. They need to have a great draft.

There's a lot of moving parts. Hopefully when July arrives the team will be in a better fiscal position but it will involve pain.

7 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 14, 2022 at 09:35 am

Of course they can reduce his cap hit. That comes at a cost of very significant cap for him alone after he has gone. If he retired due to injury or whim during those years, the acceleration would blow the roster open too.

The minimum cap hit is not all that much smaller even if we sign him for 7 years and give him all the money upfront as a signing bonus spread over 2 years plus 5 void years. Then we still have to worry about signing/retaining/replacing the rest of a roster able to support him.

That kind of deal is possible, but it likely does severe damage after he has gone. If they do it, it should be understood that the only acceptable outcome is a Super Bowl.

The next question. To ask is whether one honestly thinks that Rodgers, LaFleur and the rest of the resulting roster has a real chance of delivering. Do you? I really think it’s extremely unlikely. If so, this proposition is beyond foolish and potentially lastingly damaging.

We have come full circle, Rodgers plus less seems like a dubious proposition to bet the next decade of the franchise on. That is what we will be doing. I expect the likely end result is all those responsible will be out of a job and the team notably handicapped for 5 years, even with the new TV contract.

1 points
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CheesyTex's picture

February 14, 2022 at 01:44 pm

Agree. Rodgers just holds all the cards including whether or not he'll accept a trade or just retire, and the franchise' future direction lies in his hands whether we like it or not.

5 points
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BruceC1960's picture

February 14, 2022 at 09:37 am

Why would you extend AR even with a minimal cap savings? You will still be $40+ million over the cap this year and forced to let many key players go. With Rodgers still on the books for more years you will be forced to continue on with a weaker roster to make up for him. Why would you do that?

5 points
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Oppy's picture

February 14, 2022 at 07:11 pm

Why would you do that? Two words:

Separation Anxiety.

4 points
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Duneslick's picture

February 14, 2022 at 01:04 pm

My main fear is the team simply prolongs the inevitable. They will hit the wall sooner or later Yes and it delays the rebuild by at least 2 years. I dont see how they will win with a diminished team not just this year but for the next also and could still be paying rodgers millions of dollars on the cap after he retires

0 points
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pacman's picture

February 14, 2022 at 08:39 am

I guess everyone sees different things in the SB.

I saw two teams that had all their timeouts towards the end of the game - because, you know, you might need them.

And I saw the ref's mess up some more. I almost think they gave the RAMS the PI call late in the game to make up for the missed offensive PI call earlier. But overall, they let them play.

And I didn't see any blocked FG's or blocked punts - because no owner would have permitted their special teams to be this bad for this long.

Wake me up when there is news on AR sign/trade/other.

16 points
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YouAskedForThis's picture

February 14, 2022 at 10:18 am

Agree....not to mention some of the punt coverage and tackling was superb. Wish our team could do that :(

4 points
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Packers1985's picture

February 14, 2022 at 02:23 pm

The worse thing is we knew that ST's might screw us up at some point and we did nothing about it.

4 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

February 14, 2022 at 02:39 pm

One muffed FG attempt by the Holder, Stafford.

1 points
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SanLobo's picture

February 14, 2022 at 04:53 pm

Johnny Hekker holds the ball for Extra Point and FG attempts for the Rams.

1 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

February 14, 2022 at 08:16 pm

Yes, thank you, I was looking at the photo upside down.

0 points
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croatpackfan's picture

February 14, 2022 at 02:42 pm

Well, there was missed FG try because holder drop the ball he get from LS (Rams). Look again. Still, they won the game!

Packers did not!

2 points
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mrtundra's picture

February 14, 2022 at 08:39 am

No matter what happens in the front office or with Aaron Rodgers, this team will look a lot differently, next season. It would seem that correcting our cap woes depends on either extending Rodgers, several years, with a team/cap friendly deal, or to just trade him. I doubt he retires, so we either will have to adjust his deal or trade him to get out of cap hell. No matter what Gute and Ball does, several players, most likely, will be gone. Say good bye to Davante, Zadarious, Big Dog, Crosby, Many STs players, either ESB or Lazard, Cobb, Tonyan, maybe even Bakhtiari and others. Look for Gute to trade some of those guys for players who come cheaply, i.e. draft picks.

0 points
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jurp's picture

February 14, 2022 at 08:53 am

If AR is extended:

I would place a large bet that Crosby stays unless he wants to retire. I'd place a small bet that Cobb also comes back because AR likes having him around the locker room. Bahk is going nowhere because of Cap and because AR wants him at LT.

The D will be the decimated side of the team, not the O, because the O provides AR with all the stats he needs and the D doesn't. I really don't think it's about championships at this point in AR's career. He knows he fails in the big games.

5 points
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stockholder's picture

February 14, 2022 at 09:06 am

The D will be reworked. If Adams gets Franchised. It will be the nail in the coffin for this defense.

3 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

February 14, 2022 at 02:53 pm

He has to be in Las Vegas with Carr.

1 points
1
0
BruceC1960's picture

February 14, 2022 at 09:44 am

So we’re going to give AR a better contract for more years and let him keep his friends? So like a sound business move. I see no scenario where Cobb and Crosby are on this team next year.

3 points
3
0
jurp's picture

February 14, 2022 at 01:54 pm

If AR and the team are, in fact, negotiating an extension, then AR holds all the cards. He is already on the record stating how few friends he has on the team anymore. He caused the team to waste $3 million (IIRC) for Cobb (that they could've used for OBJ), simply because AR wanted Cobb on the team.

Unless Crosby and Cobb retire, I'm pretty sure that AR will demand that they both remain with the team this year. The FO has already deferred to AR's wants, so he'll want them to do that again. It's about C O N T R O L.

1 points
1
0
jannes bjornson's picture

February 14, 2022 at 02:55 pm

They should be replaced regardless of Rodgers' status.

2 points
2
0
Philarod's picture

February 14, 2022 at 03:26 pm

"He knows he fails in the big games."
I'll probably get downvoted - no big deal - but no, I don't think he knows that or thinks that - nor do knowledgeable, non-vindictive fans.
He did not play particularly well v the 49ers, and i get that the last offensive play was quite frustrating, and puzzling.
But he's actually been quite good in the postseason over the years.
That narrative is getting out of hand.

0 points
2
2
stockholder's picture

February 14, 2022 at 09:15 am

Rodgers has complained about the Defense for years. His choice is Adams or No Defense.

0 points
1
1
mrtundra's picture

February 14, 2022 at 08:39 am

No matter what happens in the front office or with Aaron Rodgers, this team will look a lot differently, next season. It would seem that correcting our cap woes depends on either extending Rodgers, several years, with a team/cap friendly deal, or to just trade him. I doubt he retires, so we either will have to adjust his deal or trade him to get out of cap hell. No matter what Gute and Ball does, several players, most likely, will be gone. Say good bye to Davante, Zadarious, Big Dog, Crosby, Many STs players, either ESB or Lazard, Cobb, Tonyan, maybe even Bakhtiari and others. Look for Gute to trade some of those guys for players who come cheaply, i.e. draft picks.

0 points
0
0
dobber's picture

February 14, 2022 at 09:05 am

"No matter what Gute and Ball does, several players, most likely, will be gone. Say good bye to Davante, Zadarious, Big Dog, Crosby, Many STs players, either ESB or Lazard, Cobb, Tonyan, maybe even Bakhtiari and others."

If #12 isn't in GB, they're unlikely to be SB contenders...so it makes sense to dangle those players who aren't part of the team's future and are generating cap issues to see if they can bring you draft capital in return: Turner, Lowry, P. Smith, Z. Smith. Getting a late-round pick on a trade AND cap relief is far better than garnering only cap relief. But other teams will know you're going to be slashing payroll, so they might be willing to roll the dice that they can get your castoff as a FA without having to give you anything in return.

We've seen several permutations now on how to rearrange contracts with and without #12 or #17 on the roster. We're just a few weeks from the tampering period opening. The Packers will likely have started moving their restructures and extensions around by that point, and we'll have a pretty good idea what they're planning before all hell breaks loose.

1 points
4
3
murf7777's picture

February 14, 2022 at 09:46 am

Your right dobber, This isn’t the NBA where you can just dangle players, especially one’s that contracts are about to expire, and get a value trade. That is a very infrequent happening in the NFL. Unless the FO is bluffing I expect to see Arod retire as a Packer. I’m fine with that, as you stated, without him we are not a SB contender. I prefer to be SB contender as long as possible and then rebuild. With Rodgers if they can keep a strong OL and DL/Edge they will be contenders. I also think P. Smith will be one of 5-7 current players contacts that will be extended to help bring down the cap.

1 points
3
2
BruceC1960's picture

February 14, 2022 at 09:48 am

If AR is concerned what happens with 17, won’t the dominoes start to fall with the decision to tag or not? Doesn’t that start to happen next week?

1 points
1
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 15, 2022 at 06:04 am

Agree as to the principle you espoused.

P and Z Smith are not reasonably likely because GB can't trade them until the new league year starts. That means they cannot reasonably alter their contracts to effect cap relief (as far as I know and from what Ken Ingalls said on a podcast with Andy Herman - Pack a day). The scenario would be for Z to take a huge pay cut with GB, for GB to work out a trade with an acquiring team, for Z and the acquiring team to agree on a new contract that rips up the one Z just signed with GB, and hope Goodell doesn't disapprove the contract. That's close to conspiracy theory scenario. GB would have to keep Z with a $28M cap number and then trade him. Very tough to do. Probably could only do it with one big cap relief target.

Lowry would have a $5.9M cap number for the acquiring team. Not all that attractive to the acquiring team, in my opinion, to warrant also giving up a draft pick to get him. There will be other $6M IDL types in FA.

I think Aaron Jones is extremely possible (just $800K in negative cap space if the timing is right - namely traded exactly on March 17th). Turner is possible. There may be others.

0 points
0
0
Coldworld's picture

February 14, 2022 at 08:59 am

We are still affected by the legacy of the faux TT era when Ball let this roster turn in to a thin slice Swiss cheese. To get where we did from there has been quite an achievement.

This time last year, we all expected Rodgers to restructure to free up cap space. He chose not to. We got as close as we did this year carrying Cobb and due to some amazing pick ups in Campbell and Douglas and virtually no cap left by the end of the season.

Had Rodgers not embarked on his beautiful mystery and freed up space, perhaps we acquire a couple of extra pieces last season before the contractual cap time bombs went off for key players.

5 points
9
4
jannes bjornson's picture

February 14, 2022 at 03:06 pm

Yes, that is true, but it also doesn't help to give King 5M of the Monopoly money.

1 points
2
1
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 15, 2022 at 06:13 am

Yes, mostly true.

AR did restructure his base salary to free up $10M in cap space. His $6.8M roster bonus was not converted as expected, presumably due to AR's intransigence, and that would have freed up another $4.5M or so.

They could have afforded Beckham. In point of fact, GB could have afforded Beckham since almost all of his compensation came from incentives, and incentives do not have to count against the 2021 cap, and because they ended up with $2.9M in cap space to roll over.

0 points
0
0
murf7777's picture

February 14, 2022 at 09:33 am

So, Rogers gives the Packers the best chance to make the playoffs and get to a SB. I think everyone agrees with that. So, why are most everyone’s postings over the past weeks want him gone for what will amount to probably 2 first round draft picks? Packers can get out of the SC issues by extending their top players contracts and cutting Z Smith and a couple other high cap saving players. This will push larger SC’s to the future when the NFL team SC numbers skyrocket with a new TV deal and natural increases due to the popularity of the NFL.

IF they trade Rodgers and get two first rounders what does that do for them? Well, the reality is over the past 10 years only 34% of first rounders actually make one or more pro bowls. That’s basically one in three. So, no guarantees those two picks makes us better into the future. Of course, those first rounders, especially the 2nd one in year two will probably be later in the first round which decreases the odds of getting a pro bowl type of player. You could argue that there are cheap free agents who will play better…IE: Douglas and Campbell.

The question is do we rebuild now or later. Rodgers isn’t perfect and I don’t like his antics, but I take my emotions of how I feel about Rodgers as a man and put them at bay. I remain objective based on how he plays during his back to back MVP’s. Not that my vote matters, I’d vote on rebuilding later and try to reach the SB over the next three years with Rodgers. Let the down votes begin….lol

-1 points
4
5
Coldworld's picture

February 14, 2022 at 10:00 am

As you know, I think differently, but you do highlight the fact that it does come down to one question: Do you think that Rodgers plus what we can surround him with offers a credible opportunity to win the Super Bowl?

I do not (not all due to Rodgers either). Therefore I prefer not to hamstring the future. This was the year we needed freed cap space to capitalize on the strongest roster we are likely to have with Rodgers. It didn’t materialize for reasons personal to Rodgers. That would have been a fair gamble. Now not so much and at an exponentially higher future cost.

I hope you are right, I’d love to be proved wrong, but I’m not putting a cent on it. My money goes on the FO and HC all being new faces in 3 years if they go down this path. This would be the ultimate Super Bowl or bust move.

I think it’s time to take a step back for me. If the team goes down this path, I will still cheer, still follow the roster, but have much less belief that I will be around to enjoy true contention again while such wits as I have remain intact. I see only lasting decline from here if we follow that path.

See you all when the draft comes unless Rodgers saves us from ourselves or the FO proved it isn’t chasing the ghost of seasons past.

5 points
6
1
murf7777's picture

February 14, 2022 at 10:43 am

CW....I used to think differently. I'm still a believer in draft, develop and find value in FA, not big splash FA plays. The funny think about this, is that three years ago when we went out and signed the big 4 splash FA's, Z & P Smith, Amos and Turner I said, in addition to Rodger's contract, that was going to put us into SC Hell and I was downvoted many, many times. I was totally against it. What did we get from that? One pro bowl type of year from those four players over three years. You could argue there wasn't a bust signing as well. Was it worth it? I would argue no, we could've saved a lot of SC dollars and received close to or similar play by using those SC resources elsewhere. We certainly wouldn't be in the 50M negative today.

That said, we are in the position, and I'm disgruntled by it, but nothing you can do but cut players and rebuild. I just think when you have "the QB" you ride them as long as you can while they are healthy and able to lead at a high level. Rodgers has shown that with back to back MVP's. I firmly believe he has 2 - 3 excellent years ahead of him. We can rebuild later IMO.

-3 points
0
3
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 15, 2022 at 06:18 am

That 34% figure is a little daunting, but one should remember that pro bowler can mean top 3 at one's position. In other words, GB could draft a very high quality player who never quite makes a pro bowl or is named all-pro.

1 points
1
0
Leatherhead's picture

February 14, 2022 at 10:14 am

In the Spring of 2008, there was universal agreement that Favre gave us our best chance to win. Favre had just had an MVP worthy season. We were 13-3. We were in overtime with a chance to go to the Super Bowl.

Thank God the grownups realized Favre wasn’t the future. We went 6-10 Rodgers first year, then made the playoffs 8 straight years and won a Super Bowl.

This is about fear, and people being afraid of life after Rodgers. The harder you hang onto the past, the more difficult it is to move forward.

8 points
12
4
murf7777's picture

February 14, 2022 at 10:48 am

LH....that fear is an interesting take....yes human's resist change and are afraid of fear, but, you are on the side of the majority of this site. Move on from Rodgers....I tend to disagree, not out of fear, more about what gives us the best chance of getting to the SB.

Nothing against Love. Do you really think we are going to find another HOF QB right after we move on from another HOF QB? Highly unlikely.

0 points
1
1
croatpackfan's picture

February 14, 2022 at 02:59 pm

Well, I can bet with you that the chances Packers will find (or already found) HOF QB 3rd time in the row is better than AR will bring SB title in the next 2 (or put whatever number you want) years.

From 2010 season when Packers win SB (mostly because BJ Raji interception and score in NFCCG and Nick Collins did the same in SB game) all what Packers get is painful loses in post seasons. Sometimes it was injuries, but the common denominator was and is Aaron Rodgers. He simply can not put 2 good games in post season. Not perfect, not very good, just good (2014 Seattle, 2019 Niners, 2020 Bucs, 2021 Niners)

2 points
2
0
Leatherhead's picture

February 14, 2022 at 08:54 pm

I’m not sure we need an HOF QB.

Yes, we win more games with Rodgers next year. But what about the next year, and the next?

We have a rare opportunity here to improve the team quite a bit this offseason, but it’s going to mean parting ways with some older. expensive players.

“Fear is the shadow of opportunity “.

4 points
4
0
Swisch's picture

February 14, 2022 at 11:43 am

Good perspective, Leatherhead.
Also, we don't need Love to be a hall-of-fame quarterback to win.
We do need a good quarterback, perhaps a very good one, but one who focuses on all of the attributes that go into the making of a top quarterback -- including leadership and coachability.
To me, that quarterback could very well be Love. I think he can do it. If not, then someone else.
Let's make the move.

2 points
2
0
jannes bjornson's picture

February 14, 2022 at 03:19 pm

I believe Favre retired in 2008....then un-retired...then traded...then Retired from the Jets...then un-retired...to the queens ...then.... I endured that NFC CH Game @ Lambeau. Rodgers would have given the Pack a better chance of winning with his mobility, but I digress. Rodgers first year Starting the Packer should have ended 10-6. The Defense choked away 4-5 games after # 12 bought them the leads.

-1 points
0
1
jurp's picture

February 14, 2022 at 01:58 pm

I totally disagree with your first sentence. Rodgers gives the Packers the best chance of going one-and-done in the playoffs while putting up MVP numbers for himself. That is ALL that AR now gives us.

4 points
4
0
Starrbrite's picture

February 14, 2022 at 03:13 pm

I am with Murf…I’ve said the same thing from the beginning. I’m for rebuilding when ARod is gone.
I do however understand the comments that suggest keeping ARod will limit the amount of talent that can remain with him.

2 points
2
0
croatpackfan's picture

February 15, 2022 at 07:39 am

And if AR stays, future rebuilding will lasts longer and will be harder to watch.

You have to understand that many of the Packers stars will be running away from Green Bay if rebuilding will last longer. They will not extend their contracts and will get new contracts with contenders, not with bad team. And you'll have only draft to improve yourself, because only leftovers willl be willing to sign with Packers, just JAGs. So after several year of SC Hell, you will have Jaguar level of team, that even future HOF QB (like Mahomes) will not stay on the roster, but he will run away to be QB for better team.

If Packers push the money to void years, that money will be counted on the SC, which will reduce your possibilities to build contender and build another great team capable of winning SB.

I hope that many of you have kids who are already Packers fans. They will be angry and sad one day because their fathers did vote to reduce Pakckers ablity to build strong team and left them to be another "factory of sorrow".

-2 points
0
2
jhtobias's picture

February 14, 2022 at 10:01 am

I loved watching 2 quarterbacks using all their weapons it is a team game.

As for Aaron he can do what he wants. Stay go retire his choice just make one. If the front office wants to go all in with an Mvp quarterback who hasn't been to the superbowl since 2010 go for it . I personally would like to see jordan love so people would shut up whether he stinks or not five him a chance .

Personally and hopefully he wants to be traded tell aaron fine afc team if you want an nfc great not gonna happen go pound sand.

2 points
4
2
murf7777's picture

February 14, 2022 at 10:59 am

I understand your frustrations with Rodgers situation. But, if you tell Rodgers to "pound sand" where does that get you?

1. One year with a 46M SC.
2. In 2023, he becomes a free agent and goes where he wants, and it still cost 7M SC.
3. Rodgers retires, this costs Packers SC dollars (I don't know how much) and he they get nothing in return.

Seems like the best alternative is to keep things amicable. Rodgers has stated he will make his decision early in the process, so the Packers have amble time to get their thoughts in order. That seems fair to me. That is far more than Favre provided.

0 points
2
2
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 15, 2022 at 06:25 am

Cooper Kupp got 31% of all targets in LAR's offense during the season, while Adams got 29.65%. No one in LA is complaining about Kupp-vision. Kupp got 30.0% of all targets in LA's playoff games, including 38% against ARI in the wild card game. No one in LA is complaining about that. Great receivers see tons of targets.

[Full disclosure: Adams had 11 targets out of 29 passes versus SF, 38%, which is high. OTOH, he caught 9 of them - 82% ain't bad - and gained 5 first downs. It was very efficient, even though 38% is a high number. Kupp was at 31% so arguably not extraordinarily high.]

1 points
1
0
croatpackfan's picture

February 15, 2022 at 07:51 am

As I remember, only two players (Davante and Aaron Jones) got all the targets from Diva except 2 other throws, both incomplete. Second, how many of those 29 passes was thrown away because DA or AJ was not open? So, if you calculate some other possibilities that was took away - like taking the sacks instead of check option throws, you'll find the Davante Adams had more than 38% targets.

Also, I may be wrong, but Cooper Kupp did not have even one target in the first half of the game. His main damage came in the 4th Q when he has man to man coverage, or zone defense in front of him. Both TD came in the last 3rd of the game. And take in consideration that Packers have less tries (because of very often 3 and outs) than LAR and that Packers D was much more time in the 2nd half on the field than LAR D.

So, using statistics to prove something is OK, but when you interpret stats you have to take in consideration lot of factors to be sure your conclusion is correct.

You did not mention how many passes had Stafford.

0 points
0
0
Swisch's picture

February 14, 2022 at 10:53 am

It would be hard to endure another season of Aaron Rodgers apparently slighting the fans, disrespecting the front office, and telling the head coach which games he's going to play in and what he's going to do on the field.
It's also hard to stomach the stark contrast between his posture of self-importance and his poor record in playoff games. He is somehow arrogant after coming up disappointing.
Rodgers has owned the Chicago Bears, but that seems a rather paltry standard. Meanwhile his unceasing melodrama has worn quite thin, and is almost unbearable.
Does the management of the Packers have any sense, and any dignity?

1 points
8
7
murf7777's picture

February 14, 2022 at 11:03 am

Welcome to the new world of sports! What Superstar doesn't do this now a days. Especially in the NBA, the players have the power, and they aren't afraid to prove it. The NFL is just becoming more and more this way.

0 points
1
1
jannes bjornson's picture

February 14, 2022 at 03:33 pm

They have Marketing power with "their" Brands and get rewarded financially. We can be assured of the inevitable Fall of the Hero. It's Been that way since the time of Classical Greek Theatre.

1 points
1
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 15, 2022 at 06:26 am

Remember that when someone argues that NFL player contracts should be 100% guaranteed.

1 points
1
0
greengold's picture

February 14, 2022 at 11:19 am

Can’t get the self serving MF outta the Geebs fast enough. I don’t want to hear another word about bringing the choker back only to waste yet another season for the Packers.

-1 points
6
7
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

February 14, 2022 at 04:22 pm

You come and go GG, but you always bring such good perspective!

3 points
3
0
greengold's picture

February 19, 2022 at 10:07 am

Hey Knock! Yeah, he’s destroyed one full season for me personally, and I think he’s on the wrong end of the winning spectrum, if winning championships is the goal. Now, it’s looking like management is all in on blowing up the team to keep the guy around?

Goodbye Defense. Goodbye future. Not a whole lot more to talk about.

Hoping it’s just trade posturing, but, they might be stupid enough to continue making the same mistakes while expecting different results.

Aaron’s an exceptional thrower of the football, sometimes… nothing more. His own personal agenda appears consistently to be more important than that of the team as a whole. Just my perspective.

We’re $50M in the hole. A lot of good players will no longer be Packers next season, if they keep the albatross. I see him more as that very encumbrance in the way of the Packers reaching their ultimate goal, if that is indeed to win another Lombardi Trophy.

Is he all of a sudden going to be better this season? It doesn’t work that way, 12 years later.

0 points
0
0
Jordan's picture

February 14, 2022 at 07:33 pm

There was a time when opposing teams feared Rodgers' scrambling ability. Especially in a dome or nice weather.
Scrambling and running for critical first downs has been a key part of Rodgers' success over the years. Those days are over. Since Rodgers has a no-trade-clause, the Packers are screwed. The Packers have no leverage.

It might be time to totally clean house. New Executive Committee. New President. New GM. New Head Coach. New QB. Wipe them out. Wipe them all out. Do it. <<in Palpatine's voice>> ;)

0 points
3
3
dobber's picture

February 14, 2022 at 07:46 pm

ARod doesn't have a true no-trade clause in his contract beyond his threatening not to report or to retire if the Packers try to trade him somewhere he doesn't want to go or someplace where they're unwilling to meet his contract demands.

In the end, since he'll likely need to start working on deal/extension with a new team before any trade could be comsummated, the Packers would know of any issues he might have ahead of any kind of deal.

3 points
3
0
murf7777's picture

February 15, 2022 at 09:08 am

What he does have thou is a 46M SC if he doesn’t renegotiate his current contract. That alone provides him some leverage.

0 points
0
0
Jordan's picture

February 15, 2022 at 02:55 pm

Ok thanks, I was unaware he didn't have an official no-trade-clause. But yeah, he has no-trade leverage.

The bottom line is Rodgers is going to get exactly what he wants. Murphy, Gute, the Executive Committee, MLF are all afraid of him. They don't want another Favre fiasco.
That's why they were quick to let it publicly be known that they were all in agreement that they wanted him back with the Packers.

Rodgers thinks he's the Michael Jordan of football, but he's not. He couldn't even beat the Steelers in XLV for his lone SB ring without a nick collins defensive TD. Eli Manning has more SB rings than Rodgers. In fact, Eli Manning outplayed Rodgers in 2012 game at Lambeau and went on to win SB that year.

0 points
0
0