Extending MVS should be a Priority for the Packers
One player often overlooked when it comes to possible contract extensions is Marquez Valdes-Scantling
By markoldacres
When Brian Gutekunst selected three wide receivers in the latter stages of the 2018 draft, he was hoping one of J’Mon Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown would hit.
Moore lasted just one season in Green Bay and EQ faces a fight to make the roster this year, but MVS has been the success that Gute was looking for, and now it’s time to pay the man.
It’s no secret Amari Rodgers is the only receiver under contract for the Packers in 2022, and whilst Allen Lazard and Davante Adams will almost certainly be back, MVS has established himself as Green Bay’s deep threat and is deserving of a new deal.
Valdes-Scantling led the NFL in yards per reception last season with 20.9. There can’t be a clearer indication that he was the league’s top long ball specialist.
Besides that impressive feat, 2020 was also a season of progress for MVS in almost every other statistical category.
He caught more touchdown passes (6) than in his previous two seasons combined and posted career highs for total yards, yards per game, yards per reception, yards per target, first downs, yards after catch and passer rating when targeted.
The University of South Florida alum also had more drops (7) last fall than in either of his two previous years with the Packers, but let me tell you a secret… drops are overrated.
Even so, Valdes-Scantling managed the highest catch percentage of his NFL career, so all it shows is that his numbers would be even more impressive if not for the inconsistent hands.
He also became a bigger part of the offence in 2020, playing the highest percentage of team snaps of any of his NFL seasons.
The biggest sign of his coming of age was in the NFC Championship Game, when he was easily the best Packers receiver, racking up 115 yards (a third of the Green Bay’s total receiving yards) capped with a long touchdown.
Productive field stretchers are not a dime a dozen, and the Packers have no-one on the roster who can match his speed.
Valdes-Scantling ran a 4.37 40-yard dash during the pre-draft process. Between Adams, Lazard, Rodgers and Funchess, there isn’t a dash under 4.50. If the Packers let MVS walk, they’ll have to turn to the uncertain waters of free agency and the draft for his replacement.
MVS has been through the fire to earn Aaron Rodgers’ trust and as he told Ty Dunne in March, the Green Bay offence is not picked up quickly or seamlessly. Do the Packers really want to bail on four years of developing Valdes-Scantling and start all over again?
He may never be a true number 1, but with his 6’4 frame, Valdes-Scantling is a viable red zone weapon and has a chance to grow his role even more this season.
In the end, Green Bay’s precarious 2022 cap position may make it too difficult to pull off, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling is trending up and is primed for a big season in 2021.
If Gute and Russ Ball want to keep 83 in town, the time is now, before he plays himself out of their price range.
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Mark Oldacres is a sports writer from Birmingham, England and a Green Bay Packers fan. You can follow him on twitter at @MarkOldacres
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Comments (90)
BBlake
June 11, 2021 at 03:04 pm
If they handed MVS a new contract, it would be interesting to see if he dropped it.
Since'61
June 11, 2021 at 06:51 pm
Perfect!!! Thanks, Since ‘61
Coldworld
June 13, 2021 at 04:32 pm
Humor is not equal to validation.
murf7777
June 12, 2021 at 07:55 am
That’s a good one…..two things MVS needs to improve on, better route running with foot work and being able to use his body to shield the defender. Right now he is a very good “one trick pony”.
Gman1976
June 12, 2021 at 07:28 pm
I wonder how many of us smiled and laughed due to this remark. MVS isn’t the only wide receiver who had the drops early in his career and/or took a few years to develop. Hopefully, he will end up having a great career like James Jones or Jordy Nelson.
13TimeChamps
June 11, 2021 at 03:19 pm
I think he has a lot to clean up in his game before they even think about extending. Catch more than half the passes thrown to you for starters and clean up the drops. I think he made strides last year. Hopefully, that will continue this year. It is year 4 after all.
SpikeHyzer
June 11, 2021 at 05:12 pm
That's simply statistically false.
He was having trouble with some of the easy passes, but he cleaned that up by late last season.
His catch percentage is also not adjusted for the long ball. League average on those is only 50% (balls over 20 yards) and his catch percentage on those was well over 50%.
The league needs to adjust for that the same way the NBA does for 3 pointers.
He wasn't even close to 50% overall, as you suggested, but had a 73% catch percentage on balls that were accurate. His 'drop' rate may have led the league at around 14%, but that is distorted by the higher number of long balls he faced. Only 45 of his 63 targets were deemed catchable and he caught 33, but if you take out his long balls he caught OVER 80% on routes under 20 yards (not elite, but well above league average).
He was #1 in yards per catch and #6 in yards per target and also #1 in average length of target (a whopping 17.5). He was 28th in the league in QB rating per target and 12th in fantasy points per target.
He's a very valuable contributor who is only getting better and will likely step up his production in a big way.
It would be foolish not to lock him up long term now.
Alberta_Packer
June 11, 2021 at 10:01 pm
The critics of MVS seem to be fixated on one measurement - "drops." While doing so, they are also giving credence to the false statistic of 50% drops. Thankfully, you've done some actual research which has only augmented the case for extending MVS.
greengold
June 11, 2021 at 11:20 pm
Nobody’s Catch% is adjusted for the long ball. 1/3 of his targets 20+ yds means 66% of his targets are less than 20 yds. Seems like a lot of excuse making.
2018 52.1%
2019 46.4%
2020 52.4%
C’mon. Let’s get real. As a rookie, Randall Cobb caught 80.6% with a 12.1 Y/Target. Catch% >70% 6 out of 10 seasons.
Yes. He’s tall & fast. Cobb 7” shorter, likely slower, with arguably bigger numbers. Y/Target is MVS’s, and it’s impressive. 20+ last year. Y/G = 36 2018, 28 2019 & 43 2020...
Coldworld
June 12, 2021 at 07:47 am
Cobb played in the slot, a lot of short open passes, particularly early (before MM decided players must beat their opponent without scheme help). Really an inapposite comparison. Adams had similar catch rates to MVS initially, and he turned out fine.
On a broader front, you are right that no one’s catch percentage is adjusted for long balls. What that means is that a primary deep threat is going to be at a disadvantage inherently. Unless you are arguing that such passes should have the same success rate, you are effectively countering your own point that the metric gives a true picture.
Finally, when MVS came into the league he came from a system that basically just asked him to run fast and forward. He had very few route skills. As a result he struggled with what are usually though to be the easier passes and routes—the type people often calm for a player back from injury to get him going. This did not help his stats.
The key to MVS becoming more than a gadget was learning route trees and starting to do more than catch deep balls. The pleasing thing to me last year was we saw that happening increasingly over the season. if MVS solidifies as a broader route tree receiver then his catch percentage will increase for that reason alone.
greengold
June 12, 2021 at 08:13 am
Good morning, Coldworld,
It was an inapposite comparison because I wanted to convey the highest of high end of what can be expected for just about any WR, and Cobb pulled that off as a rookie. Slot or no slot, he completed the play.
MVS isn’t the first WR to take the top off of a defense. Only 34% of his targets were > 20 yds.
I think we all understand there are different success rates for longer throws. That’s why short passes are considered “higher percentage throws.” His usage looks about in line with just about any WR, with like percentages of deep throws and high percentage.
Yeah, he was a raw 5th Round talent. I think he has the potential to be special if he gets his Catch% in the 60s. Being stuck in the low 50s is a bad look for any WR.
Thegreatreynoldo
June 13, 2021 at 03:17 am
MVS' Adot (ave. depth of target) was a colossol 18.3 yards.
Lazard's Adot was 10.0 yards
Adams' Adot was just 8.9 yards.
Allen Robinson's was 9.6 yards.
Yes, I take into consideration his role just like I would think that 5 sacks is good for an NT.
I agree that 4 targets per game is too few. Part of his Adot stat is due to his limitations in the short and intermediate routes. He needs to be more well-rounded, but as is (that is, no improvement or change) he will get a nice contract in 2022 from somebody.
greengold
June 13, 2021 at 10:17 am
TGR, thanks for the Adot info. You’re right that it is big.
You’re also right in drawing parallels to his usage/offerings being akin to an NT getting 5 sacks in a season. There are a lot of positives with MVS that don’t necessarily show up on a stat sheet. He’s a good blocker. He’s nearly always going to draw Safety help away from other receivers.
I really have nothing against MVS at all. I just want him to catch more balls, and becoming a bigger part of the offense might help, too. I want to see him take that next step. Seriously, the guy is a 15% increase in Catch% away from superstardom.
The dichotomy is he’s also a 0% change away from possibly being allowed to go elsewhere after 2021.
Coldworld
June 13, 2021 at 04:39 pm
I agree with you. I see last year as significant for MVS as he got more diverse in what he was doing as the season progressed. That has always been his challenge. It will also multiply his value considerably if he performs in more varied routes this season.
croatpackfan
June 12, 2021 at 07:54 am
But you have to adjust your comparison to Randall Cobb with who was targeting MVS. Cobb was lucky to have Aaron Rodgersin his prime, while a lot of throws to MVS was underthrown or overthrown, still counting as MVS drops...
greengold
June 12, 2021 at 08:37 am
“Catchable balls” is a purely subjective quantity PFF likes to call an advanced stat, but it is not a stat. This stuff is so new advanced stats only go back 3 years.
I appreciate the numbers for what they are, but I’m not going to go back and rewrite histories to fit a narrative trumpeting MVS to be anything better than he is.
20.9 Y/R. Great. We’re literally spending all of this time discussing 1-2 catches per game FFS.
(Tyler, I’m hoping for the best from & for MVS and the Packers this season if you’re reading this!)
King_James
June 12, 2021 at 06:00 am
"His catch percentage is also not adjusted for the long ball."
If you'll willing to adjust stats like this, doesn't that also mean you have to adjust his league leading yards per catch/target stat as well? You can't have it both ways.
Coldworld
June 12, 2021 at 07:50 am
Yards per target already does account for his drop rate and put that into perspective to compensate for TE fact that yards per catch doesn’t.
PackEyedOptimist
June 11, 2021 at 03:53 pm
His first couple years he had difficulty making contested catches, and he has dropped a few wide open opportunities, but he also made clear strides in those areas last year. He also is an excellent blocker.
fastmoving
June 11, 2021 at 03:58 pm
We never had a WR with a higher ceiling in the last 20 years. He has way more big plays than drops. If AR would not missed him so much, mostly behind him, he would had 12 TD last year....
SpikeHyzer
June 11, 2021 at 05:16 pm
Yep. MVS produced a QB rating of 110.00 when targeted, because only 45 of his 63 targets were deemed catchable (Rodgers WAS 10 points worse in QB rating to MVS, but part of that may have been that 22 of those 63 targets were balls over 20 yards, where MVS nearly led the league in catch percentage; league average on the long ball is only around 50%).
I feel like he's cleaned up the easy balls and throws taken from the slot. Most of his drops came in the first 6 games (of the short variety at least).
He should have a huge break out. Best to sign him now.
fastmoving
June 11, 2021 at 04:01 pm
Extending MVS should be a Priority for the Packers......because he only gets more expensive from here.
Dr.Rodgers
June 11, 2021 at 04:25 pm
MVS is trending in the right direction. Yes, he's drop prone. One reason for this is he's a bobbler like James Jones was. He's taller and much faster than Jones, but Jones was smart, strong and could play the sideline well, but sometimes the bobbles took him out of bounds. MVS's bobbles are more of a confidence thing, and he seems to have problems locating the ball especially at night. Adams was also very iffy his first 2 years, but proved me and many wrong. MVS should get a new contract with incentives. He's a keeper.
SpikeHyzer
June 11, 2021 at 05:18 pm
He also saw more than 1/3 of his targets beyond 20 yards, where league average is only 50% and he was well above it (near league leader).
He seemed to have had his short drops early in the season and cleaned it up by the end.
chaka
June 11, 2021 at 04:31 pm
He only catches the ball half the time at best. He is expendable.
SpikeHyzer
June 11, 2021 at 05:19 pm
His rate on catchable balls was 73% and if you take out long balls (over 20 yards where the league average is 50%), he was over 80%, which is nearly elite.
He led the league or was top 10 in several major categories, yards per catch and impact plays (and a high QB rating, even if Rodgers missed him more than any QB in the league missed any other player).
marpag1
June 12, 2021 at 01:38 am
Exactly, and if you take out all of the balls that he dropped, his catch rate was 100%.
Coldworld
June 12, 2021 at 07:53 am
That’s what people said about Adams. Adams dropped 12 of the 96 passes thrown his way in 2015 (12.5%), and Pro Football Focus ranked him as the No. 118 receiver out of 119 who played at least 25% of their team’s snaps.
scullyitsme
June 12, 2021 at 09:05 am
Omg, I hear this comparison one more time I’ll frickin freak. Davante, ran all the routes, was smooth , his mechanics where impeccable, just had mental drops( I never called for him to be dropped, he had talent. ) mvs is a role player. He doesn’t have mechanics he just has speed, and his drops are both physical and mental. He body catches way to often. When the balls in the air he can see him struggle with how he’s going to catch it every single time. Mvs couldn’t hold tae’s jock
Coldworld
June 13, 2021 at 04:46 pm
Davante was not a great route runner at all. Always good to have watched or do some research. Total rewrites of history sound good but don’t make you look it.
It is a credit to Adams that he came through and made himself what he is. He’s even referenced that in regard to MVS.
HarryHodag
June 11, 2021 at 04:44 pm
The only way the Packers can sign Adams, Alexander, etc. is if Aaron Rodgers leaves.
There is a salary cap. The Packers were $30 million over it, the highest number in the league as of now.
Next year's cap will also be tight before opening up in 2023.
It's a sad fact of NFL life that you lose some good players to bigger contracts and there could be a mass exit after this year unless A-Rod is el-gone-oh.
Alberta_Packer
June 11, 2021 at 05:56 pm
But wasn't that most probable scenario a year ago? Something's gotta give or someone'(s) gotta go after this season. The numbers have spoken. Ideally, I would like to see Rodgers play this year - give Love some NFL seasoning - then re-set the team. Ideally with Adams, Alexander, Tonyan, MVS, and, Love.
Coldworld
June 12, 2021 at 06:50 pm
Since then we’ve had the cap shrink and then less growth than was previously anticipated before Covid predicted for next year. Some will be pushed out again next off season. It’s easier with younger players because a lower risk in later contract years.
Alberta_Packer
June 11, 2021 at 08:34 pm
With MVS if you don't extend him one year early - it could be one year too late. Yes, there are deficiencies in his game - especially the drops. But he'll never have the hands of a Davante Adams. Still he is an ascending player, who is seen to be improving, and just coming into his prime. Moreover he takes the top off a defense like no other Packer - which provides more open space for his fellow receivers. If you go into the open market for a receiver like MVS - you're looking at least 9-10M/yr. Remember Jimmy Graham for 10M/yr.? Even Devin Funchess got a 10M/yr. contract with the Colts in 2019 - after just a 44 catch- 549 yards - 4 TD season in 2018.
Two other factors that I would consider:
1. the no. of times Rodgers under threw MVS on the long ball last last year.
2. how MVS came up big in the NFC Championship game against Tampa.
I see far more reward than risk in offering MVS an extension. Besides, given the nature of NFL contracts, a player can be cut/released at anytime if he under performs. It just depends on how any guaranteed monies / bonuses are structured.
13TimeChamps
June 11, 2021 at 09:23 pm
"Still he is an ascending player, who is seen to be improving, and just coming into his prime."
How are his reception totals of 38/26/33 over his first 3 years indicative of an ascending player?
Alberta_Packer
June 11, 2021 at 09:58 pm
I'll direct you to SpikeHyzer's previous posts - and his comprehensive research on MVS. I also noticed that you haven't challenged any of his findings.
13TimeChamps
June 11, 2021 at 10:55 pm
Because I'm not into all that metrics crap.
Let's do this. Instead of comparing him to a legitimate NFL superstar like Davante, which is totally unfair to MVS, let's compare him to Allen Lazard, an undrafted player who also just completed his 3rd year.
In 10 games, he had 33 receptions for 451 yards, 3 TDs and a 71.7% catch rate. Project that out to the same number of games MVS played (16) last year and it comes out to 53 catches for 720 yards and around 5 TDs. MVS had 33/690/6 and a 52.4% catch rate.
Personally, I'll take Lazard over MVS. Much more reliable.
Either way, it was a fun back and forth of opinions. I hope you're right about MVS' upside.
Alberta_Packer
June 11, 2021 at 11:38 pm
I understand that you are not in the "metrics crap," but the people who offer the contracts are.
Also MVS and Lazard are, stylistically, 2 different players. So somewhat "apples" to "oranges."
Also, Ferrari-Driver and I have agreed on an extension for MVS - 3yrs @ 5m/yr.
And, yes, this has been a bit of fun.
Coldworld
June 12, 2021 at 08:16 am
If you do not like metrics, then look at his impact in the Championship game. Look at the types (variety) of passes routes he caught passes on last year. If that doesn’t do it for you, look at how opposing coordinators planned for him in most games and think about how that benefitted others. Finally, it’s worth remembering that both the catch numbers and game scores are both metrics.
greengold
June 12, 2021 at 08:40 am
Without a doubt, MVS is a dynamic threat for any defense to account for.
jannesbjornson
June 12, 2021 at 12:07 pm
I thought you were getting Jeudy or Sutton to fill in the blanks?
greengold
June 12, 2021 at 01:45 pm
Can the BS, if you wouldn’t mind, jannes . All I did was mention it looked like an AR trade was happening along with possible players included. 6 weeks after the fact a trade still looks possible between the two teams.
If Davonte is included, I wouldn’t be surprised to see either player a part of the overall trade package.
Thegreatreynoldo
June 13, 2021 at 03:31 am
MVS serves a purpose as a deep threat that every safety has to be aware of. Quite a few players have made nice careers out of that ability - Mike Wallace comes to mind. Those guys don't have 15 year careers - it lasts as long as their speed lasts. 2nd contract only guy at this point.
Spock
June 12, 2021 at 09:43 am
"2. how MVS came up big in the NFC Championship game against Tampa."
^^^This^^^
MarkinMadison
June 11, 2021 at 05:23 pm
If you look at yards per pass attempt last year, here is how different Packers rank in the NFL
Adams: 1
Lazard: 57
Tonyan: 73
MVS: 76
I get that if you are going to be the long-ball guy you are going to have more misses, but that is kind of the point. I'd like to see him be something more than a speed burner before the Packers give him big money. I'm with 13TimeChamps here. There is a lot of room for improvement.
Alberta_Packer
June 11, 2021 at 05:45 pm
For me - MVS has made his bones - 'killing it' in the NFC championship game. Plus I have 3 years of tape on him. I'm preparing an extension offer.
13TimeChamps
June 11, 2021 at 06:02 pm
And what would that offer be?
He's been in the NFL for 3 years with less than 100 receptions and a career 50.5% catch rate and 10 TDs. This is with an HOF QB throwing him the ball. What does your tape say he's worth?
Alberta_Packer
June 11, 2021 at 06:02 pm
My initial offer would be 5m X 3 yrs.
13TimeChamps
June 11, 2021 at 06:05 pm
Sorry, I updated my post before you had a chance to respond.
And if he wanted more than 5m?
Alberta_Packer
June 11, 2021 at 06:27 pm
I'd go to 6M but would want another year - so 6M X 4
13TimeChamps
June 11, 2021 at 06:52 pm
Ok, fair enough, I asked...you answered.
I respectfully disagree. A four year contract for a guy who has averaged slightly over 30 receptions and 3 TDs a year for the last 3 years? Again, with a HOF QB.
Looking at his college career and first 3 years in the NFL, I just don't get this "he's on the verge of this huge breakout". Based on what? The NFCC game? One game? I believe Jeff Janis had a pretty amazing playoff game on his resume as well.
My last comment on this topic. MVS seems like a great guy/teammate with a great work ethic. I believe he has shown us what he brings to the table and I just don't see a huge jump from that in the future. If I'm wrong, feel free to send any crow recipes for me to throw on the grill.
Alberta_Packer
June 11, 2021 at 08:55 pm
So good luck trying to find a big, fast, relatively young receiver who can take the ball to the end zone with one catch. Also, I want to copy what SpikeHyzer earlier posted -
"His rate on catchable balls was 73% and if you take out long balls (over 20 yards where the league average is 50%), he was over 80%, which is nearly elite. He led the league or was top 10 in several major categories, yards per catch and impact plays.
Besides MVS knows the MLF offense, is a good blocker and an excellent team mate - which I know that the FO values. A WRs value is also assessed when they do not have the ball - which is most of the time.
As for Jeff Janis, I also remember his amazing playoff game but little else. However, I do recall MVS having multiple excellent games.
In my desire to extend MVS - I am far more interested in what he can do, not, what he can't do. And what he can do is very impressive.
hud
June 13, 2021 at 03:24 pm
I think you’re mistaken. I believe MVS is top 5 in the league in yards per target.
For example Adams, who you have #1 in that category has 1374 yards on 149
targets, which is 9.22 yards per target. MVS has 690 yards on 63 targets which is
10.95 yards per target.
Packer_Fan
June 11, 2021 at 06:00 pm
I believe this will be a breakout year for MVS. Wise to lock him in for another 4-5 years.
13TimeChamps
June 11, 2021 at 06:07 pm
For how much? He has a whopping 10 TDs in 3 years.
Alberta_Packer
June 11, 2021 at 07:52 pm
Davante Adams had just 4 touchdowns in his first 2 years - and he was a 2nd round choice.
13TimeChamps
June 11, 2021 at 08:46 pm
And in his third year he had 75/997/12. Compared to 33/690/6.
Really? We're comparing him to Adams now?
Alberta_Packer
June 11, 2021 at 09:27 pm
Yes - as receivers who've both had underwhelming starts to their careers. While Adams was able to make the 'jump' in his 3rd year - I see no reason why MVS can't make his 'jump' in his 4th.
13TimeChamps
June 11, 2021 at 09:57 pm
Look at their college careers. There was a reason Adams was a 2nd round pick. And why MVS was drafted in the 5th as a project.
As a Packers fan I hope you're right. Just not seeing it. I think what we've seen with MVS is what he will be going forward. Just not seeing some huge jump.
Again, hope you're right and I'm wrong.
Coldworld
June 12, 2021 at 08:29 am
Adams was a much higher pick. MVS went late despite his metrics due to the fact he was as raw as they come. It’s whether they get there not how rapidly and deciding to offer a contract is a question of whether you catch the upside or someone else does. Right now he has a role and potential. Pay him for that. He will still have that next year, but he may well have much more and we probably can’t afford it. Incentivize some of it perhaps, but he is a classic case of buy now while you can at a price that’s probably behind where he was by the end of last year.
You cite Lazard. He needs to stay healthy. If he does, I believe he will put up numbers, but he’s probably closer to his peak and we will end up probably wanting to get him done too if he stays healthy or end up paying him at around the level floated for MVS with less upside and lower production. Sign both but MVS is the priority because of contract status and upside in play and cost.
13TimeChamps
June 11, 2021 at 09:02 pm
A 2nd round choice who was sharing targets with established receivers like Jordy, Cobb and James Jones. Who was MVS sharing targets with? Let's keep it real.
Alberta_Packer
June 11, 2021 at 09:44 pm
The reality was after flashing potential at the end of his rookie season - 2015 happened for Adams - with shoddy routes, dropped passes, miscommunications and lack of separation from defenders.
In short, Adams was flat out terrible in his sophomore year, ranking as Pro Football Focus’s 109th receiver season among qualifying players. Fortunately, his talent and perseverance took over in his 3rd year.
So it really didn't matter whom Adams played with in his first 2 years - he simply wasn't ready to be a good NFL receiver until Year 3.
Spock
June 12, 2021 at 09:53 am
Respectfully disagree with your assessment of Adams. He had a HIGH ankle sprain that robbed him of his best tool (his elite footwork) and he lost his confidence and then was "trying too hard" on his catches. I don't know if you've ever had a high ankle sprain, but I have and it took me over 3 years to stop re-spraining it. It's a tough -and under discussed- injury for a football player to have. I was one of the few people that I recall on this forum to NOT criticize him after the injury. I still remember the "DropVante" people who piled on the criticism while he was trying to work through the injury. -And many forget that Jordy and Cobb were out for most of the season while he was dealing with this!!
jannesbjornson
June 12, 2021 at 12:10 pm
A bit of reality talk--thanks.
greengold
June 12, 2021 at 01:53 pm
Yes. Davante would often drop an easy catch early, then wind up catching everything thereafter. This was a few years into his career.
Coldworld
June 13, 2021 at 05:02 pm
His injury was real, but it held him back it was not the underlying problem that he needed to work through. Why take credit away from the man? He’s a player who fought to make himself better, not one who came in ready and just had an injury.
If I recall MVS had a high ankle and knee issues that affected him in his second year. https://www.google.com/amp/s/madison.com/sports/football/professional/as...
All this revisionist history in the age of google gets a little frustrating, disrespects Adams achievements and crests a false paradigm for evaluating the question at hand.
Coldworld
June 13, 2021 at 04:51 pm
Adams, Tonyan
Fubared
June 11, 2021 at 06:14 pm
My issue with mvs, head is not always in the game. "Oh gee the pass came to me, not ready, so sorry"
Not the brightest bulb on the xmiss tree.
Alberta_Packer
June 11, 2021 at 06:48 pm
His head was "in it" during the Championship game. He answered the bell in the biggest game of the year. Some other Packers - not so much.
CoachDino
June 11, 2021 at 06:26 pm
lots of good points on both sides. priority? what does that mean?more than ar aamo ja da z? sure if u can get a good deal for he does seem on the rise.
greengold
June 11, 2021 at 06:37 pm
There are a lot of MVS fans in here, including myself, but, he needs to increase his Catch% and seriously reduce his Drop Rate %.
He’s off The charts bad in both. I can’t support throwing giant money at that. Either he turns that around this year, or, no.... I love guy, and I want him to do that. But, he’s gotta get it fixed.
MVS has never climbed into even the 60% Catch% range. All of your old favorite WRs did 65-70%, some as high as 80%. I’m sorry, but have to be honest here.
My personal hope, is he connects better with Jordan Love. It’s possible. I mentioned in another topic, if MVS gets into the 70% Catch% range, and Drop Rate % down to 5-3.5% instead of 11.1, he could be a superstar. Not just “could be.” INSTANT SUPERSTAR.
I apologize in advance. AR & MVS along with King have to be the 3 hottest button topics in GB. Just being brutally honest with my friends here.
Since'61
June 11, 2021 at 07:21 pm
I’m not rushing to give MVS an extension. Not unless his catch rate improves. We can draft a WR next year he could have a 50% rate as a rookie and improve from there.
But after 3 years in the league and still only a 53% catch rate, I think it’s better to wait and see if he improves this season before we offer an extension.
With Adams, Tonyan, and Jones on the field a QB like Rodgers is good enough to work around an MVS. But a young QB like Love could lose confidence throwing to an alleged NFL receiver who drops half his passes.
If Amari Rodgers is the real deal and Funchess returns to his pre-injury/pre-Covid form MVS could be an odd man out. MVS has plenty to clean up before we commit to him.
Thanks, Since ‘61
Coldworld
June 12, 2021 at 06:52 pm
No. If he’s healthy he’s a lock for very obvious reasons. injuries aside, EQ is likely the only one of the holdovers in jeopardy.
Ferrari-Driver
June 11, 2021 at 07:49 pm
I agree that extending MVS would be nice, but Adams is the one who is the priority for our Wide Receiver corps. At present Adams is our only true difference maker and is a must sign. Extend MVS but don't break the bank, 2022 is going to be a money tight year for us.
Alberta_Packer
June 11, 2021 at 08:00 pm
So F-D, what do think of an extension - 5M/year X 3 years?
Ferrari-Driver
June 11, 2021 at 08:35 pm
Alberta, you just about nailed it. If you made a guess as to my thinking, you are spot on.
Alberta_Packer
June 11, 2021 at 08:59 pm
Alright - good - done. Onto next topic.
cheesehead1
June 11, 2021 at 09:22 pm
MVS has a lot more to prove IMO. The NFCCG aside, he’s been far to inconsistent. Receivers with speed is great, obviously, but you must have reliable hands which he doesn’t, yet. Same thing with a QB with a rocket arm that can’t hit the broad side of a barn.
stockholder
June 11, 2021 at 09:59 pm
I'd sign him. Early. Like Now!!! MVS is Gute's best late round pick. He will only get better.
Alberta_Packer
June 11, 2021 at 10:07 pm
Wow! This is awesome sh. We finally agree on something.
marpag1
June 12, 2021 at 01:41 am
No one can really argue against signing a player who has shown middling or ordinary production. But the obvious and unanswered question here is whether or not he will accept a middling, ordinary salary that is commensurate to his production.
Houndog
June 12, 2021 at 06:32 am
"If Gute and Russ Ball want to keep 83 in town, the time is now, before he plays himself out of their price range".
Yeah, and if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle!
I wouldn't expect very much from Gute and Ball, they're just Murphy's puppets, doing what they're told.
greengold
June 12, 2021 at 07:43 am
Your favorite WRs in history for the Packers caught the football. That’s what made them favorites. They offered reliability when the moment called for someone to make a play, secure a first down, or make a score.
Rarely do players come in all guns blazing, catching everything. Most of our best struggled the first year or two with Catch%, but they snapped out of it. MVS has yet to snap out of it, after 3 seasons. This is his year to do so, if he’s going to be a player.
His high of 52.4% is lower than most Packer greats career lows.
It’s widely known Davante Adams struggled his first 2 years. 57.6% & 53.2%. All this talk of MVS’s “improvement,” when his best can’t eclipse Davante’s “struggling” numbers...?
Let’s just hope he gets it together, If he can get into the low-mid 60s, that would indicate great improvement. I really love MVS and see how he can positively impact a game. 20 Y/Tgt is huge, but all of his other #s are pedestrian.
A couple positives for him is he’s in a contract year, and he may feel more comfortable catching a different ball from Love. He’s definitely got that extra motivation to catch everything. $$$ He’ll cash in big if he does. I wonder if he’d even be open to a lesser extension now, or if the Packers are willing to take that risk? This could prove to be a really special season for MVS.
CTFB
Coldworld
June 12, 2021 at 08:00 am
Adams was playing slot and short routes predominantly in his early years and was a more polished player coming in. As someone who argued Adams was worth sticking with at the time, I have to admit his drops were a more legitimate concern. With him it was clicking on his routes (initially poor). That seemed to free his focus, unlock his feet and he was off. I think there is some of that in MVS.
croatpackfan
June 12, 2021 at 08:26 am
GG, you and all of fans opposing to extend MVS this season forget one simple fact. Extending him now will cost Packers less money. It is simple calculation - he is still developing and if Packers will wait with extension, they may find themselves to pay MVS for extension 10+ millions/year. Extending him now I believe he will accept less than 7 mil/year for lets say 2 or 3 years with guaranteed money less than 4 mil/year.If he play himself towards 15 top WR in the league, you won, if not, you can just cut him and save some money. It is just advantage to keep Salary Cap healthy.
You all also forget that DA extension will be huge, so you have to try to get other important pieces in place before you take the commintment on 2 very important players - Davante and Jaire.
greengold
June 12, 2021 at 09:03 am
Not sure how I forgot that when it was part of my conclusion.
As for Davante, I think he’s going to be a Bronco. Sadly. I love the guy.
croatpackfan, I get it, and I went out of my way to say I like MVS. Merely pointing out there is great risk in overpaying him if you sign him to an extension now and he fails to improve.
Generally, you throw important cap monies at more known quantities. Keeping the salary cap healthy involves not throwing money away for little return.
Also, I’m not opposing extending him. I’d like more indicators that he’s turned this around before the Packers extend him, for sure. Now that you bring up this magical $10M figure, because it is a make or break figure that kept both Jordy & Cobb from being re-signed, I wonder if the Packers aren’t reevaluating how they spend monies like this moving forward?
jannesbjornson
June 12, 2021 at 12:18 pm
When "our best " are # One Picks they shine as rookies like Lofton and Sterling even Walker. Three Primo helper bees from Round One over a Forty Three year period,one in the HOF and soon Sharpe. Now go ask Farve and Rodgers why they're " malcontents."
PatrickGB
June 12, 2021 at 10:19 am
Adams, Alexander, MVS and others are coming up for a new contract. The team is real tight against the cap. Can’t keep them all. However if #12 is gone then maybe we can?
DrMixerGED
June 13, 2021 at 02:00 am
Sign him now. He's an awesome player only getting better. And he seems like a pretty good dude, too.
Thegreatreynoldo
June 13, 2021 at 03:43 am
I'd place MVS in the $8M to $10M AAV area as is. There isn't a great way to extend him now without increasing his 2021 cap number considerably. Of course, GB could just tack on the new money for the most part.
A lot depends on how he performs in 2021.