Around the NFC North: Worst Case Scenarios
Let's get negative.
By Mike Price
This is one of my favorite articles of the year. Daydreaming about the worst case scenarios for the inferior teams of the NFC North. Let's talk about what could, anbd hopefully will, go wrong.
Bears
- Caleb Williams is bad. A few weeks ago I talked about how a cross body throw that was picked was typical for Williams and some bears fans invaded the comments mad because Williams never throws picks. The point is that he does too much. Running around and forcing throws instead of sitting in the pocket and reading the play out. Anyway, if he's just bad like the last 35 or so first-round Bears QB picks then the team will be really bad.
- The high risk o-line fixes don't work out. The Bears strategy for fixing the o-line was to trade for an ancient guard, sign an injury prone one and then overpay a one-trick pony at center. (Remember we're trying to be overly negative here). It wouldn't be a huge shock if one or two of those moves don't work out. Ben Johnson's offense would break down with a bad o-line.
- The highly paid edges are what we thought they were. Neither Dayo Odeyingbo nor Montez Sweat have been particularly exciting edge rushers over the past few years. The Bears are counting on them to collapse the pocket and get pressure with four to make Dennis Allen's defense work.
- The highly paid linebacker core falls apart. Allen's defense is also dependent on strong linebackers who can cover and rush the passer. TJ Edwards was once able to do those things but has always been a minus athlete. Tremaine Edmunds was just never good.
Vikings
- JJ McCarthy is bad. We're gonna have the same first bullet for all three teams here. If the QB isn't good, the team won't be. McCarthy is a second-year rookie who suffered a horrendous leg injury in training camp last year. Some say he was over drafted to begin with and some say Kevin O'Connell and the Vikings weapons would make any QB good. We'll see.
- Aaron Jones gets hurt. Jones played a lot more than anyone would've expected last season but he's still an undersized, older, injury prone running back. The Vikings traded for Jordan Mason this off-season but he's just a guy who was elevated by Shanahan.
- Harrison Smith falls off a cliff. Smith is older than me and is still a cornerstone of this defense.
- Brian Flores leans too much on the zone blitzes. Flores gets the most out of this defense when he can win with four and throw in some freaky blitzes at surprising times. If he has to blitz every down it doesn't work out.
Lions
- Back to the QB. Jared Goff is a great QB when he's protected and has a nice play action first offense to run. Now, he's slowly losing his o-line and we have an all new offensive coordinator this season.
- Jahmyr Gibbs gets hurt. I think Gibbs is the key piece on this offense outside of the o-line. We've been talking about him being undersized forever, eventually you have to think he'll get hurt. How will a first-year Lions OC adjust?
- No pressure. Aidan Hutchinson is coming off a bad leg injury and the rest of the available d-line are run stoppers first and foremost. If a first-year DC has to start relying on blitzing it could lead to a lot of big plays from the offense.
- Bad corners. The Lions, who want to run a press-man scheme, blew their free agency loan on DJ Reed, a small corner who excelled in a zone scheme the past few years and was average before that. On the other side, Terrion Arnold was PFF's 109th ranked corner last year. Could be a problem!
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Mike Price is a lifelong Packers fan who recently moved from Utah to Stoughton (a Madison suberb). You can follow him on twitter at @themikeprice.
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Comments (15)
dobber
June 20, 2025 at 11:15 am
I see the Vikings as perched pretty precariously on a roster that doesn't have a lot of depth and is betting on a QB who hasn't played an NFL snap and several aging (and some recovering from injury) key starters. They're well-coached--so I don't see them dropping below 7 wins--and things might break for them, or they might be picking 10-15 next spring.
The Lions might suffer some with the change in coordinators, but they play very hard (all piss and vinegar. as my Dad would say) and even with Ragnow's retirement and the loss of Zeitler at guard, they're going to score points. We'll see how Hutchinson progresses: the kind of injury he suffered isn't an easy one to recover from, and even though Arnold got better as the season progressed that secondary will need help from the pass rush.
Ben Johnson was criticized by some who were around his interviews as a little too cerebral, introverted, and "weird"...some posited that he may struggle to command a locker room, especially in the face of some adversity or poor decision making. He benefitted from having a HC in Campbell who could really rev up a locker room. Honestly, I expect to see something like what the Bears got from Nagy: they might splash right away and get Bears' fans hopes up, but will end up struggling over time.
LLCHESTY
June 20, 2025 at 01:43 pm
What I don't get about the Vikings is everybody saying the OL is much improved. Ryan Kelly and Will Fries are good players but Kelly is 32 and missed 7 games last year while Fries is only 27 but missed 12. Getting Darrisaw back is a huge plus for them and Donovan Jackson could be a top guard but there's quite a few ifs involved in predicting them to be a top unit. I don't pay enough attention to them to know about their depth, maybe Major Payne could enlighten us.
dobber
June 21, 2025 at 08:25 am
Kelly can be a good C, but he's breaking down. He's played one full season in the last 5. They seem optimistic on Darrisaw, but it's questionable how much camp work he'll get and it will take time to get back up to speed.
Leatherhead
June 20, 2025 at 12:21 pm
I don't think the Lions will go 15-2, and I don't think the Vikings will go 14-3. There will be regression towards the mean.
The Vikings make lots of mistakes at the QB position, and they just let a QB...Darnold.....who had a real good season, walk, and they've given the keys to the car to a guy who has never played a single NFL snap, couldn't stay healthy through OTAs and minicamps last year, and who hasn't played at all in a year. What could possibly go wrong there?
The Lions have just had too much instability and turnover. Both coordinators and some veterans are gone. I don't think they'll fall to under .500 unless they have some bad injury stuff, but they aren't going to win 15 games either.
I think the Bears will be better than they were last year, when they finished 5-12, but I don't think they're going to be twice as good and win 10 games this year, unless Caleb is the next Mahomes. I don't think he is.
Bearmeat
June 20, 2025 at 02:01 pm
Lions fans are going to find out that Jared Goff is a game manager without an elite cast around him. ARSB and Gibbs are great. LaPorta is… ok… the rest? Eh.
Minny is counting an awful lot on McCarthy. It’s not wise. And Jones, yeah… he’s going to break down. Very soon. Their front 4, nor their CBs, nor their safeties are scary.
It’s Chicago HOPESZN! Every year, the Bears fans crow. And every year. By week 7, they’re quiet. How is this different? Their front 7 doesn’t scare anyone. The OL is now ancient. And Caleb was baaaad last year.
LLCHESTY
June 20, 2025 at 11:51 pm
Maybe you don't realize Jameson Williams had a better season than any Packer WR last year? Not a huge hurdle I know but anytime you get 1000 yards out of your #2 that's a good year. LaPprta also had more catches than any Packer receiver.
dobber
June 21, 2025 at 08:55 am
Gibbs and Williams give the explosive aspect to the Lions' offense, but you're right on in that they really need the OL to make it go. If that pop fades, the Lions will have a plodding, grind-it-out offense that will put more pressure on Goff to generate chunk plays. Coaches like Campbell can only burn hot for so long before it starts to wear out.
McCarthy = Christian Ponder 2.0. Some have said it doesn't matter, and that O'Connell can make any QB look good...2023 would like to have a word with those people. They've invested hard in vets and dealt away picks under Adofo-Mensah, and it's taking a toll on their roster. They're $51M underwater on the 2026 cap already, so they're going to need to cut bait on contracts after 2025.
NFLfan
June 20, 2025 at 02:52 pm
I do not see the Packers winning the Northern Division. My guess is the Lions.
Leatherhead
June 20, 2025 at 02:59 pm
That's a guess. Here's my guess.
The Lions franchise hit a peak in 2023, getting to within 30 minutes of the Super Bowl. They had a good 2024 regular season, but did not win any playoff games, so they were closer in 2023 than they were in 2024. They won't win as many games this year as they did last year, and they won't get any closer to the Super Bowl.
Some day, you'll be able to tell your granchildren that there was a brief moment in time when they didn't totally suck. They peaked in the locker room at halftime against SF. This is the second year of the descent.
xxxxxxxxx
And as long as I'm guessing, I'm going to guess that we're going to approach training camp and preseason differently this year. We're not going to treat the opener like an exhibition game, and we're going to beat Detroit and put them in the rear view mirror.
TarynsEyes
June 20, 2025 at 03:34 pm
Yeah, every team, but GB will regress, and the Packers will be able to walk to the Division Title.
Let's talk about regression.
Minn has does more with a fading Cousins and near backup Darnold.
Detroit has gotten further than GB since the third assumed prodigy took the helm.
Chicago nearly swept GB, and improved their team and HC/staff.
The Packers are in status quo, and that is a mode of regression, as those ahead are still ahead, and those once behind are catching up, with some teams passing them already, which means, regression without the need of an actual step back.
The Packers don't know where players will play, who will play, not to ignore the shortage in the secondary, but the others are worse off.
Since many say you can't use last year as a basis for what GB will be this year, then how are you using the success of others to downgrade them this season?
LOL!!!
Bitternotsour
June 20, 2025 at 04:15 pm
it's easy - we're using our eyes and we're relying on history. zero lombardi trophies between them. They have the DNA of perennial losers. That's how we do it. We look at our trophy case, they don't measure up.
With regards to Detroit and Minnesota we also consider their fan base, which is a reflection of their losing DNA. We can with great accuracy feel confident our prospects are better than theirs. The Bears at least have won, have some distant great history, have fans that understand in their souls that they suck and that we own them. But at least they understand.
Leatherhead
June 20, 2025 at 06:32 pm
No, only Minn and Detroit will regress. The other two teams will improve.
I don't know how much Minnesota has done with Cousins and Darnold. I mean, they only made the playoffs 3 times since 2019(we've made it 5 times). They haven't won a playoff game since 2019.
I'm not sure how you've concluded we're in "status quo/regression", Look at the changes on this team in the last 15 months, the coaching staff, the players we've added. That's not regressing.
I'm going to assume that you aren't serious that the Packers don't know where the players are going to play. I'm pretty sure that giving Melton a few reps at CB isn't anything to base that on.
Shortage in the secondary? We return the same secondary (McKinney, Williams, Bullard, Nixon, Valentine) that stymied Philly in the playoffs (13 out of 21 for 131 yards ) PLUS we've added Hobbs. Williams, Bullard, and King could all make second year jumps.
Of course you use last year. Are we better than last year? I think so . When I compare this team to what we had a year ago,we're obviously better in numerous areas.
HawkPacker
June 21, 2025 at 11:11 am
'No, only Minn and Detroit will regress. The other two teams will improve.'
Makes sense to me also LH.
Our db's last year were ok and they are a bit better this year. Hopefully, our DL improves and it will be interesting with all the LB's, including the new faces.
Should be fun to watch them and see who develops and who does not.
CoachJV
June 20, 2025 at 07:23 pm
The Lions Suck
The Viqueens Suck
The Bears STILL Suck
GPG
Boneman
June 21, 2025 at 06:08 am
I think the Lions have missed their window and will regress but will still compete for playoffs. When you win with an elite O-Line and then lose 2/5 and one of the three remaining WAS the weakest link, then you have to change the way you do things on a core level as an offense. Can they? I think Goff has a very specific operating zone for elite play, so no, I don't think so. The defense depends on the offense to be effective so expect them to really drop off.
The Vikings are a dangerous team but when you depend on FA's to fill out your roster you are inviting volatility and high variance. The lack of any ability at all to draft good players will catch up with them and I think the luster comes off the HC's tiara. The run game will still be non-existent and the defense of smoke and mirrors has already shown signs that the rest of the NFL has caught on. They will struggle to get to a .500ish record.
The Bears are literally a laughingstock. They changed 3/5 of their offensive line and proclaim "all fixed! Now our QB can be great!" Delusional. A mediocre QB, mediocre defense, questionable offensive line, a below average to poor front offense, an unproven coaching staff. Need I go on? If this team wins 6 or 7 games and starts to change the culture (ala the Lions a few years ago) then it progress. The playoffs? The PLAYOFFS? THE PLAYOFFS! LOL.
Packers are poised to make a big push, possibly all the way. The youngest team in the league for the last two years yet making the playoffs and looking dangerous doing it. Very few weaknesses and very few big question marks. Jordan staying healthy is the key. If he can the sky is the limit. WARNING- Jordan Love breaks out as next league Super Star. Book it. GPG!