Around the NFC North: 2024 Week 8

It's pumpkin season. 

It's fitting that Halloween is just around the corner and the Vikings and Bears are both turning into pumpkins right before our eyes. Let's just not think about the Lions. 

Vikings

The Vikings fell to the Rams on Thursday night, 30-20.

Game Notes

  • We went from maybe the Vikings are the best team in the NFL to maybe we can count them out already. The defense can't stop good offenses, Darnold crumbles under pressure, Christian Darrisaw is out for the year and Justin Jefferson is throwing his helmet in disgust. Maybe it's not quite count them out for the playoffs bad, but they certainly aren't close to best team in the NFC anymore. 
  • Darnold was 18/25 for 240 yards and two touchdowns. Pretty good at first glance! The problem is that Darnold has three fewer yards per attempt, negative EPA and just 50% completion percentage when pressured (per Warren Sharp). In this game, it meant the Vikings couldn't keep up with the Rams in the fourth quarter when it mattered. 
  • Aaron Jones having his worst game as a Viking didn't help and probably affected the game more than Darnold. Jones had just 58 yards on 19 carries. Really, none of the Vikings weapons, ex-Justin Jefferson who is inevitable unless Jaire Alexander is playing, did much of anything in this game. 
  • The defense is what we thought it was. Now that Flores has all his pressures on tape, teams can block them up and find holes in the zones. Whenever it's a good QB or a good offense the defense is exposed. The Rams had 110 more offensive yards in this game than the Vikings. They did that with a geriatric QB and number one WR combo, a second WR who just came off IR this week and Kyren Williams. 
  • The biggest problem in this game was lack of pressure. The blitz schemes weren't working and Jonathan Greenard is the only player on the d-line who can generate pressure on his own (including Dallas Turner who had three snaps in this game after the Vikings said he was the best defensive player in the draft). 

Lions

The Lions destroyed the Titoons, 52-14.

Game Notes

  • Let's get this one over with so we can make fun of the Bears. 
  • Matt LaFleur said today that the Lions are the best team in the NFL and I'm not sure how you would even argue that. They're certainly the best team in the NFC. On Justis Mosqueda's ANY/A rankings they have the third (!) best defense and the third best offense. The Packers are tenth and seventh respectively for what it's worth. I'm not sure if I buy into them having the third best defense, but they are also ranked third in DVOA. If this team with this offense has the third best defense I don't know how you beat them and I definitely wouldn't expect a hobbled Packers team to have a chance right before a bye week next weekend. 
  • Now that that's done. Jared Goff had a meh game in this one. He had only 12 completions and 85 yards, just 5.7 yards per attempt. Amateur. Never mind that the Lions had 52 points and 164 rush yards. 
  • Jahmyr Gibbs had most of the rush yards, finishing with 127 and a TD. Almost as good as Josh Jacobs' 127 yards and two TDs this week. David Montgomery had a horrendous 33 yards on nine carries. They should bench him this week. 
  • Defensively, the Lions gave up a ton of yards - it's the turnovers that make their advanced stats look so good. The Titoons had 416 yards, almost 200 more than the 225 the Lions had. I'm not worried about the Lions' offense because, obviously, they had a lot of good field position (and a kick return TD) and converted that into points. The defense is another matter. Turnovers, and especially fumbles recovered, don't happen consistently and shouldn't really be relied on for predicting future success. The Lions defense has the second most takeaways but has given up the 20th most yards and 8th most points. All those yards aren't converting to points because the Lions are taking the ball away. So why am I so un-confident in the Packers this weekend? The Packers defense is in the same spot, except maybe a little worse. The Packers have given up the 16th most yards and 11th most points while forcing the most takeaways (19 versus the Lions' 15) in the league. That means the Packers haven't bend but not broken as well as the Lions despite forcing more takeaways, what happens when the fumbles roll a different way and QBs don't throw it anywhere near Xavier McKinney? 

 

 

Bears

The Bears fell to the Commanders, 18-15.

Game Notes

  • I'm sure you've seen by now that the Bears lost this one because of the Bears dingus defensive back who was too busy talking smack to the crown to box out his guy and that guy caught the winning hail mary, but if you watched the whole game you know that it shouldn't have been that close to begin with. The Commanders dominated this game - Jayden Daniels had 326 yards passing and 52 yards rushing to Caleb Williams' 131 yards passing (on 10/24 passing) and 41 yards rushing. Altogether, the Commanders had 481 yards and the Bears had 307. Take away D'Andre Swift's long run of 56 yards and the Commanders had well over 200 more yards than the Bears. Of course, if you take away that run you should probably take away the hail mary, but that doesn't fit the narrative so let's just not think about it. 
  • This game was billed as a match-up of the top two rookie QBs and it ended up being a disaster for people with twitter accounts that are something like @calebwilliamsgoat69. The Bears did a lot of stuff right for Caleb Williams - they beefed up his wr corps and offensive line, they brought in a young hot offensive coordinator, they signed a running back who is a human less than a second into free agency and somehow they still Bearsed it. It's amazing. 
  • Since we're talking about the running back who is a human, De'Andre Swift had another huge game thanks to one huge play. Take away that run (remember we only do this with the Bears) and he averaged 4.2 yards per carry, which is fine. It you can stop Swift from breaking free he isn't gonna beat you. 
  • The defense wasn't great either. Daniels, Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler (the Commanders version of the 52-year-old ex-Charger) all had over 50 rushing yards. Terry McClaurin had 125 receiving yards and even Zach Ertz (how many 52-year-olds can you get in one game??) had 77 yards. The Commanders gave up on five drives, attempting field goals, but could've easily scored 35+ in this game with a more aggressive strategy. 

 

 

 

 

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Mike Price is a lifelong Packers fan who recently moved from Utah to Stoughton (a Madison suberb). You can follow him on twitter at @themikeprice.

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Comments (15)

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Coldworld's picture

October 29, 2024 at 10:12 am

The Lions D is suspect, but to make that relevant an opponent has to challenge their offensive performance. That means stopping a very good running attack and, at the same time, getting to Goff via his passing lanes, because he’s perfectly willing to get the ball out fast in a check down. Thats tough to do when he’s behind probs my the best OL in football. He is on a career tear at the moment.

Beating the Lions comes by scoring regularly on them or putting Goff flat on his back quickly, early and often. They’ve been scored on, but getting to Goff has been a much rarer achievement.

Given our rush this year and their success against blitzing I’m skeptical that our D can pull that off, particularly if Jaire and or Williams are out or less than 100%. That means we have to out score them. I don’t think a semi healthy Love is a good bet to do that, unfortunately. I doubt Willis can, but I don’t really know how much Willis can do, we’ve never pushed that envelope fully. It’s just bad timing. We haven’t been firing on O recently really anyway.

Whoever is QB, we need to go all out offensively (that doesn’t mean just through the air). If we go down through excess aggression, so be it. Unless we can be all over Goff all day, a cautious approach will almost certainly be fruitless.

The key thing is we need to recognize it is one game and not risk long term key injuries through aggravation. We get into the playoffs by winning games in numbers, not necessarily this one. By the next meeting we may be better and they may not be, but if we have key players out for a while or still hobbled, that may not matter.,

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Mister Chievous's picture

October 29, 2024 at 10:56 am

"Beating the Lions comes by scoring regularly on them or putting Goff flat on his back quickly, early and often.". isn't that pretty much the way to beat every team?

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Coldworld's picture

October 29, 2024 at 11:02 am

You haven’t watched our season have you? No, sometimes it is not about sacks. In this game it may be.

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NFLfan's picture

October 29, 2024 at 10:32 am

The Packers media is setting up Love to play agains the Lions-- 'good news-only a groin strain', 'day to day', 'he'll get daily therapy'.

Personally, I don't want him out there. He is still wearing a brace which indicates a less-than-healed MCL, his left leg is likely tight.

Cleveland Clinic:

"How long a groin strain lasts depends on how severe the original injury is. Most people need a month or two to fully heal after a mild or moderate groin strain (grade 1 or grade 2)."

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Mister Chievous's picture

October 29, 2024 at 10:45 am

you left out Aaron Jones had 2 catches for 37 yards. Stafford can still sling it and finally had his two exceptional receivers available, and they had big games as usual. do you even watch the games or do you just look at the box scores and make assumptions?

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Coldworld's picture

October 29, 2024 at 10:57 am

Jones was ineffective as a runner. Theres no doubting that and he has been before. He’s not Superman. I dislike the comparatives because they are so different, but at this point, with how our season (the Packers’ one in my case) has gone, there’s little doubt that Jacobs has contributed at least as much as Jones would have and been the more available option too.

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Mister Chievous's picture

October 29, 2024 at 04:59 pm

Jones has around 750 yards from scrimmage this season. how much more available to you need him to be? if he had a bad stat day running it was his line's fault.

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Coldworld's picture

October 29, 2024 at 05:51 pm

He has 50 yards more than Jacobs combined. He has about 50 less yards rushing. How does that make your point? I know he’s a Viking now, but the sting is gone.

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splitpea1's picture

October 29, 2024 at 11:36 am

Bears: There's signs of them possibly coming apart at the seams regarding the coaching. The players have voiced their concerns at various points in the season, including this one. Waldron didn't adjust to the blitz this game, which made life difficult for Williams and rendered him ineffective for three quarters. And then there was the botched hand-off to a backup offensive lineman at the goal line in the middle of the fourth quarter--wow, what a crazy call in that situation!

Eberflus is 1-13 against teams with winning records. So with quite a bit of talent, it's questionable whether he'll be back. Bears fans are already salivating over the prospect of Ben Johnson, who supposedly wanted the HC job previously, but the management elected to stay pat with Eberflus.

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Cheezehead72's picture

October 29, 2024 at 11:40 am

I do not see the Packers winning this game. After Williams got injured the defense allowed the Jaguars to come back and it was on the offense to come back and win. They came close to losing to a bad team. The Lions are a much better team especially on offense. They are going to score a lot of points and if Alexander and Williams hurt they will score more points.

I would rather see Willis start because I do not trust Love with the injuries he has. Willis at QB and if we can have a good heavy run game that eats up the clock and keeps the score lower is the only way I see us winning.

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WD's picture

October 29, 2024 at 12:42 pm

Frankly i think it would be unwise to start Love. He obviously will not be 100%. We have the bye week next week so let him return after the bye for the final half of the season. Why risk further injury to Love? We need him for the long run. Besides, Malik has really been impressive and he is at least at full strength. Be smart.

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MitchAnthony's picture

October 29, 2024 at 12:51 pm

Of the potential injuries and the impact of that on the field the one that has me the most concerned is Evan Williams. Hopeful he can go and be 100% if he does. He's been impactful and difference maker on the field.

If Alexander can't suit up and go he can still make his contribution by talking smack from the sidelines in warmup gear. So there's still that.

I would love for GB to pull this off but absolutely everything would have to go right. The Lions are just really good right now.

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Leatherhead's picture

October 29, 2024 at 01:16 pm

I like it Mike.

The wheels are coming off in Minnesota after a fast start. Who could have possibly foreseen that? Only anybody who's been paying attention for decades, I guess. It's like predicting the next time Halley's Comet will be visible.

I think the Commies are one of the best teams in the league, and I think they'll win their division. The Bears came within microns of beating them, at home. Unlike the Vikes, they're not going to crumble. I hate to say this, but the Bears looked pretty good to me.

I was a mere youth, not even old enough to drive, when the season opened with the Lions beating us 40-0. It's like having all the hope sucked out of you for the season. I don't think that's going to happen this weekend. I think the Oline continues to protect the QB and open holes for the running game, the Packers protect the ball, and we score 30+ points. And it's probably going to take 30+. I don't think it's a realistic expectation that we'll hold Detroit under 20.

As impressive as Detroit's offense is, it can still be slowed down or even stopped for a while. The Packers will have to try to keep Detroit under 30 to have a chance.

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Brewcity_BearsFan's picture

October 29, 2024 at 11:22 pm

As much as I am still realing from the final play, I also felt good that the Bears looked like a team that can challange for the playoffs this year.

Mike says the defense looked shaky, yet fails to mention they kept Washington out of the end zone until the literal final play.

Williams looked awful for 3 quarters, but in the final quarter, looked the part of the number 1 pick.

This weekend will be huge for Chicago. If they rebound, and beat AZ, they will be a problem. If they fold, then every Packer fan will get to say "Told you so".

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Matt's picture

October 29, 2024 at 04:55 pm

In Arizona everything seemed to go the right direction. After that our offense was dead for too long periods. With Love healthy or not. I see the talent, I see the potential and versatility. But I don't see consistency. Lows are too long. We don't need to be 2020 offense but we are leaving way too many points on the field. I know Love has been hurt but last Sunday these multiple long throws to the side didn't work at all. Receivers couldn't get separation and I don't even mean the interception. Drops in clutch time came back again. Like some people say - feast or famine and it's not a good plan for more than a single game.

When It comes to our defense I didn't make up my mind until Texans. This game showed me that bad results in specific parameters in specific games are just a part of a plan - yards per carry, lack of pressure etc. You can't be everywhere and do everything. Limiting Texans passing game to minimum was a statement. The story continued in the 1st qr in Jacksonville. We put a hat on them. But after? I started to doubt my arguments again. It looked like Barry was back. If not a handful of strong individual plays we lose the game. The way Lawrence ripped us in the middle of the field was painful. Uncovered receivers, missed tackles, our pass rushers caught like flies on glue. Waiting for a sentece to be carried out. I started to think if Jags may be way better than their record. I hope so. Last season we had a problem in the middle of defensive field. This season it is opposite. No pressure and average at best CB play.

Taking this all into consideration I know we are not bad, I know we have a huge upside. But I don't see us being in par with power rankings top 5 team in the league. I want us to be there as much as all of you reading this. On paper we don't have any chance against Lions, but any given Sunday. The world of sports remembers bigger surprises.

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