Winter has come in Green Bay and along with it, chaos in the Packers organization. However, chaos isn’t a pit. Chaos is a ladder. This is a perfect opportunity for the Packers to win back the North. Dom Capers’ watch has ended which means the Packers will have to elect a new Lord Commander of the defense.

The Packers could turn to coaches that are already part the organization, such as Winston Moss, Joe Whitt Jr. or Darren Perry, but those guys are all just spokes on a wheel. If they truly want to see a dramatic turnaround in their defense, they don’t need to just stop the wheel. They need to break the wheel.

This article is going to look at some of the experienced candidates that might (or should) be considered for the job, and how their defenses performed when they were defensive coordinators. Along with the usual statistics, this piece will rely heavily on Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. Here is a short summary of how they calculate these ratings (a longer explanation can be found on their website, Footballoutsiders.com):

“DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent.”

Since 2011, the Packers average finish in defensive DVOA is 18.43. Their average defensive rankings in the traditional statistics are as follows: (16.6) in points, (20.3) in yards, (17.9) in rushing, (19.6) in passing, and (13) in takeaways. Keep those numbers in mind when you compare them to the following candidates:

James Bettcher

The 39-year old Bettcher took over as Cardinals defensive coordinator in 2015 when Todd Bowles left to go coach the Jets. His three seasons in the position have been a resounding success and he has quickly established himself as one of the best defensive minds in the game today. The Cardinals have ranked inside the top five in defensive DVOA in each of the last three seasons – no other team has accomplished that feat. Bettcher’s defenses have also been inside the top 10 in total yards and rushing yards allowed each season, and their average ranking in pass defense and takeaways is 12.3 and 7.3, respectively. He does have an interview scheduled for the Cardinals head coaching position. If he doesn’t get it, the Packers should try to entice him with a hefty offer.

Rex Ryan

You can’t talk about great defensive minds and not mention Rex Ryan. The former defensive coordinator and head coach officially uses the 3-4 formation, but unofficially employs various formations and is a master at disguising what formation he’s using. In his four seasons as defensive coordinator of the Ravens, his defenses ranked 6^th, 1^st, 5^th, and 2^nd in DVOA. His time with the Jets was equally as impressive, but for the purposes of this article, I will only include his stats as defensive coordinator. The Ravens’ average defensive ranking in his four seasons was: (9) in points, (3.5) in yards, (4) in rushing, (11.75) in passing, and (12.5) in takeaways. If the Packers want someone who can get the most out of their talent on defense, they should give Rex a call. His ability to light a fire under his players certainly wouldn’t hurt.

Jack Del Rio

Del Rio has been a head coach for 12 of his last 16 seasons in the NFL, and a defensive coordinator for the other four. His tenure as a head coach of the Jaguars and Raiders has produced mixed results, and he did just get fired by Oakland due to the team’s underwhelming performance in 2017. His time as a defensive coordinator is a different story entirely. In his lone season as Panthers defensive coordinator, their defense went from 21^st in DVOA to 3^rd, and in his three seasons with the Broncos, their average ranking was 8^th. In his four seasons in charge of defenses, his units have finished with average rankings of (11.75) in points, (6.5) in yards, (5) in rushing, (10.75) in passing, and (13.25) in takeaways. It’s a long shot for Del Rio to land a head position for the 2018 season, but he shouldn’t have any trouble finding work as a coordinator.

Vic Fangio

Fangio has been the most commonly linked name to the Packers ever since they fired Dom Capers, and perhaps even before that. The move would be logical, as Fangio knows Capers’ system better than anyone. The 59-year old has been a defensive coordinator for 18 seasons, with most of his success coming in the first two and last seven of them. Although his overall numbers are nothing to write home about, he has had a considerable amount of success in recent years. His defenses ranked inside the top five in DVOA in three of his four seasons with the 49ers. In his three seasons running the Bears defense the unit has gradually improved, going from 31^st in DVOA in 2015, to 24^th in 2016 and 14^th in 2017. While it pales in comparison to his time with the 49ers, it’s worth considering that he had significantly less talent to work with. He has led a top-10 passing defense in six consecutive seasons and his rankings over the last seven seasons are: (10) in points, (8) in yards, (11) in rushing, (7.14) in passing, and (14) in takeaways.

Chuck Pagano

Pagano has the reputation of a “football genius” around the league, but he’s a bit of an unknown as a defensive coordinator. While he has spent many years as a defensive coach, his only season leading a defense was in 2011 with the Ravens. How did their defense perform that season? Well, they were 1^st in DVOA, 3^rd in points, 3^rd in yards, 2^nd in rushing, 4^th in passing, and 13^th in takeaways. You get the sense that he would find a way to get the most out of the Packers talent on defense.

Gus Bradley

Bradley got off to a terrible start as a defensive coordinator in 2009 and 2010 with the Seahawks, with his defense finishing 29^th in DVOA in each season. He has had quite the turnaround since then, finishing inside the top 12 in each of his subsequent three seasons as defensive coordinator. In those three seasons (two with the Seahawks, one with the Chargers) he has led his defenses to average rankings of: (3.67) in points, (9.33) in yards, (18.67) in rushing, (3.33) in passing, and (13) in takeaways. He certainly won’t be an easy get for Green Bay, but he’d be well worth the effort.

Paul Guenther

Guenther seems to be a hot commodity, and while the numbers aren’t all that impressive, his defenses have always been tough and gritty. In his four seasons as defensive coordinator of the Bengals, they have only finished inside the top-12 in defensive DVOA once. His units have ranked inside the top-10 in points and passing three times, but their finishes in yards (17), rushing (17), and takeaways (16.25) are all below league averages. The Packers already have the tools in place to be an above average run defense, so bringing in Guenther to fix their pass defense isn’t the worst idea.

Teryl Austin

Austin is another potential Packers candidate who is currently interviewing for head coaching positions elsewhere. The numbers in his four seasons as head of the Lions defense don’t tell the whole story, as he didn’t have a whole lot to work with. The Lions finished 3^rd in defensive DVOA in his first season at the helm, but since then they have ranked 16^th, 32^nd, and 19^th. It’s hard to make a strong case for him based solely off stats, though there likely is a reason he is so respected and being coveted for head coaching positions. Over the last four seasons with him leading the defense, Detroit’s average rankings have been: (15) in points, (16.25) in yards, (14) in rushing, (18.5) in passing, and (16) in takeaways.

Mike Nolan

The Nolan-McCarthy connection goes back to their days with the 49ers, where McCarthy served as offensive coordinator under Nolan for one season before accepting the job as Packers head coach. Nolan was considered to be one of the favorites to land this job in 2009, but the Packers ultimately went with Dom Capers. Currently a linebackers coach for the New Orleans Saints, the 58-year old Nolan has been a defensive coordinator for 17 seasons with eight different organizations. He has led six of those teams to at least one season inside the top 12 in DVOA, and has been inside the top 12 in eight of his last ten seasons. During his run as defensive coordinator, his units have ranked as follows: (13.53) in points, (15.82) in yards, (18.06) in rushing, (13.47) in passing, and (12.59) in takeaways.

Greg Williams

Williams is perhaps best known for his role in bountygate, but before that he had the reputation as one of the better defensive minds in the NFL. Williams was considered to be the favorite to land the Packers defensive coordinator job in 2009, but he ultimately chose to accept the position with the Saints. The 59-year old has led five different teams to top-10 finishes in DVOA, though he has also seen four teams end up in the bottom eight. In his 16 seasons running defenses, his units have ranked on average: (14.8) in points, (15) in yards, (11.9) in rushing, (17.8) in passing, and (19.3) in takeaways. There are better options out there.

Steve Spagnuolo

Spags has had a mixed bag of results as a defensive coordinator. He has had three seasons where his defenses have finished in the bottom-10 in DVOA, however he has also overseen three defenses that have ranked inside the top-13. One of those defenses won Super Bowl XLII. The units he has led had average rankings of: (18.67) in points, (19.5) in yards, (19.67) in rushing, (17.83) in passing, and (15.67) in takeaways.

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Another possibility is Bengals LB coach Jim Haslett, who hired McCarthy in 2000 and was under consideration for the job in 2009. The Packers will likely be connected to some inexperienced up-and-comers – such as New England LB coach Brian Flores, Minnesota LB coach Adam Zimmer, and Seattle LB coach Michael Barrow. There isn’t much (or any) data to look at with these coaches, as they have no experience coaching defenses. Some other possible, but unlikely candidates are Texans DC Mike Vrabel, former Browns HC Mike Pettine, former Bears HC John Fox, and Jets OLB coach Kevin Greene.