Three Games That Could Tilt Packers Season

The Green Bay Packers are said to have the easiest schedule of any NFL team this season.  That assessment is based on how their opponents fared in 2015 and as we know, that was then and this is now.  Still, the odds makers (Bovada in Las Vegas) have a lot of faith in the Packers' ability to navigate their slate in 2016.  They have set Green Bay's win total at 10.5, the highest mark given to any team so far this season.  Four other teams were given the same total: the New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers.

That the Packers are expected to have another winning season is nothing new but we have seen the Packers dealing with at least their fair share of difficulty finding deeper success beyond the regular season.  Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has said, for the past few years, that the team sets their goals in the spring, ranging from win totals to gaining home-field advantage.  The latter is always the goal but if the Packers are to gain the highly-coveted top seed in the NFC, it's likely going to take them hitting the "over" on that win total of 10.5 games.

While every game counts and they all add up in the end, teams can usually point to a handful that really shaped their season when all is said and done.  Let's assume that the Packers win at least six of their home games this season and split on the road.  That would put them at 10-6.  On average, the top seed is usually coming in at 12 wins which means the Packers have to win their toughest matchups if they don't want to have to get on a plane in January.  Here is a look at three games that look to figure prominently in the season's outcome.

Note: it's May and a lot can happen to change this list so take it for what it is right now, today

Packers at Falcons (Week 8)

Atlanta finished 8-8 in 2015, head coach Dan Quinn's first season at the helm.  After winning their first five games, the Falcons lost six straight and never righted the ship.  Quinn came from Seattle where he had one of the league's top defenses and helped the Seahawks to two-straight Super Bowl appearances in 2013 and 2014.  He'll be in his second season as head coach and a year wiser.  He's familiar with Rodgers and has had his way with the Packers quarterback on a number of recent occasions.  Obviously the current Falcons are not the Seahawks teams Quinn was a part of, but he should come into that matchup with a good defensive game plan.  On the other side of the ball is arguably one of the game's best receivers in Julio Jones.

Since losing to Atlanta late in the 2010 season, the Packers have rattled off four-straight wins, including a playoff game in Atlanta later that season.  There won't be any shortage of confidence that the Packers can grab a road win here, but Atlanta remains a tough place to play.  If the Falcons stumble out early this season, Quinn may find himself on an early hot seat.  A win over a formidable opponent such as the Packers could save his job.  Or, the Falcons may come out hot again and come into this game with their own robust confidence bank.  If this game had been in Green Bay, it wouldn't be on this list but an unfamiliar and very loud venue and a young team with emerging talent should make this a better match up than it is on paper.

Packers at Vikings (Week 2)

The Packers have been tabbed to open up Minnesota's brand new U.S. Bank stadium.  The Vikings' former home, Mall of America Field (or more affectionately known as the Metrodome) historically gave the Packers more than their share of headaches and tough losses.  A lot of that probably had to do with the two teams being division rivals and a lot of evenly-matched games more so than the venue itself, but Minnesota has never been an easy win for the Packers.  It certainly won't be this time around either.  This game is very early and wouldn't single-handedly put the Packers in a hole but it's the toughest division game they have, on paper.  It's a road game and there will be tons of hype leading up to this one.

The Vikings secured the NFC North in 2015 after beating the Packers at Lambeau Field in week 17.  After watching the Packers win the last several division titles, there won't be any shortage of recognition for the Vikings before the game to pump up the team and the crowd.  Especially that it happened on Green Bay's own turf.  It also had to hurt that despite beating the Packers and winning the North, the Vikings still saw their season end first when they booted away (pun intended) their wild card game against the Seahawks.  The Packers, meanwhile, beat Washington and advanced later that same day.  Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer enters his third season and has instilled a new attitude in this Vikings team.  They feel slighted by all of the press and play the Packers are getting heading into this season and will be out to prove that last season wasn't a fluke.  That alone won't win this game, but this is another tough road game where the situation will create some extra energy and buzz that the Packers will have to fight through.  

Minnesota added one of the best wide receivers in this year's draft, giving quarterback Teddy Bridgewater another weapon.  Running back Adrian Peterson is probably sensing that his years are getting short and will be out to prove that he hasn't lost a thing despite being a year older.  Minnesota's defense was much-improved last year and with the defensive-minded Zimmer running the show, they'll be ready for Rodgers & Co. when they come to town.  A win here for the Packers would be a huge step to reclaiming the NFC North.

Seahawks at Packers (Week 14)

This one is a no brainer on this list.  Seattle is one of the teams expected to contend for the NFC in 2016 and these two teams have forged a nice rivalry over the last five seasons.  Last year, the Packers got Seattle at home and in week two before the Seahawks got on any type of roll however, Green Bay still had to come from behind to do it.  The Packers should be looking to put their official stamp on this rivalry and this scenario seems to set up one of the best opportunities for them to do just that.  This time, it's in Green Bay again, but it's late enough that each team will be well-defined by then.  In other words: no excuses.  This game could very well determine the top seed in the NFC, depending on what the Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals have to say (maybe the Vikings too).  It will be nice and cold at Lambeau Field and could set up nicely like those old-school NFL films games where all you see is steam coming from the players.

Both the Seahawks and Packers have changed since the NFC championship game in 2014 and despite being a few years older, this one should be worth the price of admission.  The Packers don't lose many home games in December and they'll be tested here.  The teams are very familiar with each other and don't seem to care much for each other either.  The Packers will want to make sure that Seattle is coming back to Green Bay if they have to meet in the postseason.  Seattle seems to carry the craziest strokes of magic against the Packers in Seattle and will surely want to set up another showdown at the Clink (CenturyLink Field).  Seattle has played some of their best football late in the season over the past few years.  The Packers are a tough out at home.  Does it seemingly get any better than this?  At least right now, it doesn't.  Get ya' popcorn ready! 

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Jason is a freelance writer on staff since 2012 and also co-hosts Cheesehead TV Live, Pulse of the Pack and Pack A Day podcasts.  You can follow him on Twitter here

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Comments (20)

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NickPerry's picture

May 20, 2016 at 05:42 am

The Atlanta game will be after a Mini Bye (10 Days Off) and 5 weeks at Home. They should be pretty rested from lack of travel from the first 7 weeks of the schedule so that sets up nice. As long as Atlanta isn't pumping crowd noise in I think the Packers will be okay. That and Sam Shields isn't hurt.

Seattle is going to have issue with that O-Line all year so I'm not sure even Tom Cable will get that fixed. I think Seattle might be the team that fades a little bit this year. Now that feeling could be for my utter disdain for the Seachickens, but I still think it's a valid point.

The week 2 Game makes me nervous. Not because so many have seemed to jump on the Vikings Bandwagon, but when a rival like the Packers, a team that has beat you down for the most part since 2010 is coming in to open your new home, that would be tough for ANY TEAM.

I'd also include Week 16 where the Queens come to Lambeau. That could very well decide the North. OR it might be when the Packers start resting Starters for the Playoffs cuz they have Home Field locked up..

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MarkinMadison's picture

May 20, 2016 at 05:53 am

I couldn't have said it as well myself.

Atlanta being on this list shows how soft the Packers' schedule is this year. They need to take care of business. I want to see them sweep the Division again, or at least get to 5-1. That is the sign I'll be looking for. 14-2.

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mrtundra's picture

May 20, 2016 at 05:58 am

Living in western Wisconsin and having to put up with the whole Minnesota thing really makes me want the Packers to clean viking clock both times the two teams meet in the regular season. Peterson is already claiming the Super Bowl for the Vikings and that usually spells doom for them. Here's hoping the Packers are ready to trounce the queens and reclaim the NFC North title from the pretenders to the throne.

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gr7070's picture

May 20, 2016 at 07:52 am

Atlanta was horrific last season, even during their opening winning streak.

I'm curious to see how well Jacksonville plays in week 1.

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Bearmeat's picture

May 20, 2016 at 09:59 am

I'll be at that game. I think GB will win, but crazy things happen in week 1 and the Jags do believe in themselves. It'll be close.

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dobber's picture

May 20, 2016 at 02:50 pm

Hot weather, a big-play offense, and young talent on defense. Jax will not be an easy task.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 20, 2016 at 08:01 am

The game that tilts our season is the one wherein one of our WRs not named Nelson or Cobb breaks out while playing against a good CB. Preferably an outside WR, but at this point I'd take a slot WR or a TE like Cook.

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lucky953's picture

May 20, 2016 at 02:50 pm

Great point of view. If the Packers O can impose themselves on other teams, no game particularly worries me. If they can't, then every game will be a nailbiter. On D, I believe this team will be better than last year's.

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Community Guy's picture

May 20, 2016 at 09:16 am

4 other games i have circled on my schedule:

- back-back home games against NYG and DAL (weeks 5 & 6),
- the playoff rematch @ WASH (week 11), and..
- HOU at Lambeau to start the December run toward playoffs.

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BamaPackFan's picture

May 20, 2016 at 09:44 am

Nobody should overlook the Titans. They have been building their O-Line and added Derick Henry (A Beast), to the backfield with Murray? from Free Agency. We will definitely find out if the run defense has been fixed here.

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Bearmeat's picture

May 20, 2016 at 09:58 am

Meh.... Henry looks good. But that defense isn't good and who is going to catch the ball for them?

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Bearmeat's picture

May 20, 2016 at 09:58 am

The only one that truly worries me is the Seahawks. The Panthers had the season of a lifetime (their 2011) last year and it's not going to be repeated. They'll regress. The Cardinals were the same. Palmer is Jay Cutler without the pouty face. He doesn't scare me. IMO, the Seahawks are GBs only true competition for the #1 seed.

Don't get me wrong, the Packers will manage to drop a dumb game or two - but I truly do believe they have rounded our their front 7 enough to be average. I wish they Raji hadn't retired and they could have drafted Jack, but it was not to be. Outside of a potential weakness at ILB, with the offense and the secondary being what they are, that should be enough to be one of the best teams in the NFL again. At any rate, winning the division by multiple games isn't even a question.

I do think they will destroy Atlanta and sweep the Vikings. I'm actually of the opinion that the Bears are going to be better than Minnesota this fall.

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Since'61's picture

May 20, 2016 at 11:05 am

If the Packers are healthy and Rodgers is back to playing even close to his MVP level we should fine. The week 2 Vikings game is a special issue but after the initial hoopla the game should settle down and Rodgers and the Pack should he able to take the Queens even on the road in their new house. As for Atlanta they have been fined for pumping in noise so that will be less than expected plus if their QB Matt Ryan is struggling as he did last season this game should not be close, even on the road. The games that concern me are the NYG because of their QB and the FAs they have signed to their defense. They will still be adjusting to new systems because they have new coaches but Eli Manning has historically played lights out at the end of close games. If the Packers have a lead the defense cannot lighten up in this one. The return of Romo scare me about the Dallas game. Him and the Cowgirls OL and RBs. Our DL and ILBs could be dominated in this one. However if Romo is injured as usual the Pack should be OK. Andrew Luck and the Colts are a concern as well. He is one of those QBs who is never out of a game. However last season he played alone and paid the price for it, worse than even our own Aaron Rodgers. I'm not sure how much the Colts improved in the off season but the Pack should take this one at home. Finally, I agree on the Seattle game. A lot on the line against another quality QB. However, no more Marshawn Lynch to deal with. It will be interesting to see how Wilson and the Seachickens offense plays without him. I don't think that Wilson can carry them but we'll see. As for the Packers our differentiator remains Aaron Rodgers. If he plays to the level he is capable of and his OL and WRs remain relatively healthy we should be fine against any opponent. We saw that in 2014 even with Rodgers on one leg we came one play away from an SB. Among the goals that the Packers set for this season the first one needs to be keep Rodgers healthy. Go Pack Go! Thanks, Since '61

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Rossonero's picture

May 21, 2016 at 03:34 pm

Don't forget about Thomas Rawls. He looked pretty beastly until he got injured.

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TarynsEyes's picture

May 20, 2016 at 12:12 pm

I think there may be a tad to much confidence in the ease of the schedule as it could make things harder in the last 8 via the first 8 with the first 8 being assumed walks thus the last 8 harder still for that playoff run with hopes of a 1 seed even more distant. 13-3 may get us a head to head decision but 11-5 will award the coveted division but likely road kill once again...unless certain players grow, veterans survive and the offense regroups. : )

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Since'61's picture

May 20, 2016 at 01:05 pm

Taryn - perfectly said! I agree that 11-5 results in another early playoff exit.
No question that health and offense regrouping are the keys. Thanks, Since '61

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al bundy's picture

May 20, 2016 at 01:21 pm

They surprised me last year. Did not think they would have the record they did but they were hot out of the gate. You never know.
We all know a team can play better than the previous year and have a worse record. So many things can happen.

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Lphill's picture

May 20, 2016 at 01:25 pm

If the Packers are healthy they should fear no team on their schedule.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

May 20, 2016 at 02:30 pm

Right!

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4thand1's picture

May 20, 2016 at 07:47 pm

This should be the Packers year. They have play makers on both sides of the ball. The offense should be the teams identity, with the defense making enough plays to win most of their games.

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