Thompson Has Ensured He Won't Feel Trapped By Need

Solidifying the defensive line with the Guion and Raji signings keeps the GM's options open in the draft. 

I sat down to write about how today's reported signings of Letroy Guion and B.J. Raji have kept Ted Thompson's options open for the 2015 draft, and then I read this great piece from Pete Dougherty over at the Green Bay Press Gazette. While I don't agree with Pete's assertion that this essentially means Thompson will now shift focus to linebacker and cornerback early on in the draft, I do agree that this beefs up the defensive line to a point where it is not a dire need heading into the league's annual selection meeting. 

Money quote: 

If Thompson ended up paying a little more for Guion and Raji than you would have expected at the start of free agency, in the bigger picture it still wasn't much. Now at a minimum, defensive line shouldn't be among his concerns on that side of the ball when it's time to draft this year's class.

Exactly. 

I would actually go further and say that Thompson has done a pretty good job of making sure he's not boxed in at all in regards to need. Yes, inside linebacker is still a major question mark. But Thompson and company know much better than you or I what they have on their hands when it comes to Joe Thomas and Carl Bradford. No, I don't expect either one of them to be the second coming of Patrick Willis. But it seems pretty clear that Clay Matthews will continue to be used in a variety of ways, including inside on early downs.

What Thompson needs more than anything is an athletic running mate for Clay. That doesn't necessarily have to come from the first round. (And let's be honest, when you're picking 30th overall, you're pretty much picking a player that many teams will have a 2nd round grade on.) 

Are Bradford or Thomas (or Lattimore if he re-signs or Hubbard) the running mate in question? Who knows? But there's little doubt that Thompson and his personnel staff have a much better idea than you or I of what they have in-house. It's easy to say "They HAVE to draft an inside linebacker in the first round."

Well, no, actually, they don't. 

I know Ted has drafted the best player at a position of need the last few years (Clinton Dix, Jones, Perry) but that doesn't mean that if Maxx Williams is sitting there and he is the best player available that Ted won't take him. (I'd actually prefer he wait and take Nick O'Leary, but that's just me) 

As Zach points out, a Richard Rodgers/Maxx Williams combo could end up being a new-era version of Mark Chumura and Keith Jackson. (Sans hot tubs of course)

And I only have one thing to say to that:

 

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Comments (27)

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 31, 2015 at 03:08 am

I should wait for the contract details, but it does seem that TT, at what appears to be incredible expense, has kicked the issue down to next year.

I am waiting for someone to suggest that TT got hometown discounts from these two guys. Didn't TT just sign Raji for 3.5 to 4 times what you (packeraaron) suggested he deserved?

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PackerAaron's picture

March 31, 2015 at 04:20 am

He did indeed. But you have to think Ted believes he's going to get a certain level of play from Raji to justify the number. As Pete says, did he slightly overpay? Probably. But in the grand scheme of things it really isn't all that much. I don't think anyone would look at either of these contracts and say the Packers got a discount. I certainly wouldn't.

It is interesting that he's paying Raji around what Terrance Knighton is getting from Washington. Knighton has at least been on the field and productive the last few years, whereas Raji has been a complete non-factor. Now, the Packers were reportedly "interested" in Knighton (how much of that interest is real and how much is his agent blowing smoke is impossible to tell) but Ted obviously felt more comfortable giving that money to a player he knows rather than an "outsider." I don't always agree with it, but that's been Ted's way, to value his guy over someone else's castoff.

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RCPackerFan's picture

March 31, 2015 at 06:21 am

If you had your choice between getting Knighton or Guion, Raji, and a compensation pick next year, what would it be?

They got Raji and Guion for not much more then what Knighton would have costed and they would have lost a compensation pick next year if they signed Knighton.

I would take Guion, Raji and a comp pick next year over Knighton.

I think Raji back at his natural position (NT) he will have a bigger impact. But I really like the combination of Raji and Guion playing the NT.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 31, 2015 at 09:15 am

I have never been a fan of Raji, so I readily admit that I am biased. I do think Raji has the talent to be good this year at NT, it's other things that bother me about him. Agree about the compensatory pick too, and no, I'd take Guion and Raji over losing a 4th rd. compensatory pick.

I really was thinking more about Wilfork than about Knighton. I assume that since NE did not pick up Wilfork's option, that he was cut for cap reasons and wouldn't have been a compensatory pick, but I never saw anything about that issue. Also liked Wilfork's contract: $3.5 mill cap hit in 2015 (all guaranteed money) and an option for a 2nd year, with only $1.5 million guaranteed in 2016 ($1.5 mill dead money if he doesn't work out). I have to agree with packeraaron that in the big scheme of things, it is not the end of the world. I do have an issue with the way TT likes to be the last GM standing with an offer and waits until Raji is the last alternative FA NT out there (although Guion was out there too in this case). I think that only works if TT is really willing to pass on the player if necessary. Getting too long, so I will wait for the contract. I assume that 1 of Pennel, Guion, and Raji won't make the 53, and that 2 of them won't if TT takes an NT in the first 3 or 4 rounds.

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jh9's picture

March 31, 2015 at 05:15 am

Aaron, I'll make you an online wager: I'll buy you a beer if TT drafts a TE with his first pick and you buy me a beer if he drafts an ILB with his first pick. What do you say?

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PackerAaron's picture

March 31, 2015 at 07:12 am

I say that's a suckers bet.

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jh9's picture

March 31, 2015 at 08:09 am

Damn... I was so looking forward to that beer!

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jh9's picture

April 02, 2015 at 05:11 pm

To say that TT “ensured” himself not to feel trapped by need, I think is a bit of an misstatement. By signing both Raji and Guion, I think it would be more accurate to say TT has allowed himself the opportunity to better “manage” his needs with this years draft.

I say that because the Packers greatest need is at a position that might have the least amount of talent available in this years draft. Every draft analyst I’m aware of says this class of inside linebackers has very few starting caliber players. Some analysts even say there are no inside linebackers worthy of a 1st round selection. They all say there are only five quality inside linebackers--Kendricks, Anthony, McKinney, Dawson, and Perryman--and all five players will be drafted by the mid-2nd round. If that’s the case, the Packers have a dilemma and are trapped by a need.

With the release of A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones and the non-signing of Lattimore, as the roster stands now Sam Barrington is the only starter the Packers have at inside linebacker. Yes, TT could sign a free agent like Mason Foster but we know how few free agents TT signs. And yes, Clay Matthews did an amazing job at that position in the last half of last year. But the inside linebacker position is physically demanding and if I were Mike McCarthy I would not want my best pass rusher exposed to a greater chance of injury. And yes, Carl Bradford and Joe Thomas will be competing for the other inside linebacker position. But clearly this second inside linebacker position next to Barrington is wide open and of all the positions both offensively and defensively on this team, this position has to be for TT the number one priority that must be addressed in the draft.

This year the Packers draft in the #30 position in the 1st round and at the #62 position in the 2nd round. If the draft experts are correct, all five of these inside linebackers will be drafted before the Packers can draft in the 2nd round. If the Packers want to draft one of these five players their options are: 1) Draft one in the 1st round. 2) Trade up in the second round to a first-half position in the 2nd round and probably lose a draft pick in the process. 3) Trade down out of the 1st round for a high 2nd round position and gain an additional draft pick.

I’m certain that if TT had not re-signed Raji and Guion, he would use his 1st round pick this year for a starting caliber DT. He would then be in the unenviable position of trading up in the 2nd round to get one of these five linebackers. Now, however, he can trade down if he doesn’t like his options at #30 and get the linebacker he needs plus an additional draft pick.

IMO because of the limited talent available, TT is trapped in so far as he must use his first pick for an ILB. However, his signing of Raji and Guion has given him the option to trade down and that’s why I say he has allowed himself a better opportunity to manage his needs in this years draft.

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RCPackerFan's picture

March 31, 2015 at 06:27 am

I really think Thompson will take the best player on their board, pretty much regardless of position this year.

If they have similar grades on players at ILB or CB I think they will go that way, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if they drafted Maxx Williams or Melvin Gordon if they are the best players on their board. I'm not saying they will draft them, I just wouldn't be surprised if they did.

I don't think they will go QB, OL or S in the first round. Outside of those positions, nothing really would surprise me.

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PackerAaron's picture

March 31, 2015 at 07:13 am

"I don't think they will go QB, OL or S in the first round. Outside of those positions, nothing really would surprise me."

Agreed. And even grabbing an offensive lineman at 30 wouldn't surprise me.

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RCPackerFan's picture

March 31, 2015 at 08:06 am

Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me either if they went OL in the first. I don't think they will go with an OL though. Resigning Bulaga, they return arguably the best starting G duo in the league, and a rookie C that some argued could/should have been a OROY candidate.
If a premier LT were available, I could see it.

At the end of the day though, I don't see them going OL.

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lebowski's picture

March 31, 2015 at 07:43 am

I'd actually say OL is a slight possibility. They've got a ton invested in their guards, and now Bulaga. Linsley has played so well that you gotta think (hope) that in a couple years he'll be due more. I like Bakh a lot, but left tackles get overpaid in FA. We have very little in the cupboard for tackle depth.

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RCPackerFan's picture

March 31, 2015 at 08:09 am

yeah, I agree... I could see that happening. I just don't think it will.

If they really like a certain LT, I could see them drafting him.

I think they will likely wait till the 4th-5th round to draft an OT though. (Thompson has been very good in that area for OL).

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HankScorpio's picture

March 31, 2015 at 08:03 am

Capers defense functions best with good LB play. But over the last half of 2014, the guys currently on the roster produced just that.

Yesterday's signings mean the DL returns intact from last year. Again, the second half of the season proved these guys can get the job done.

The secondary is where they have had losses that hurt. It was also one of the deepest areas on the team. Dime is a little bit of a concern with Sean Richardson, Tay Glover-Wright and Demetri Goodson as the current candidates to play dime. I never thought I'd type these words but signing Jarrett Bush would ease some concerns about dime and I think that will happen soon.

On offense, one of the best units in the NFL returns intact.

Sure there are areas on the roster that could use shoring up with a productive rookie. Plenty of them, in fact.

IOWs, there isn't much they need but there isn't much they could not use. That's the perfect way to walk into the draft room.

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Idiot Fan's picture

March 31, 2015 at 08:47 am

I agree. Of the starting defense that took the field against Seattle and held them scoreless for about 55 minutes, only Tramon is gone. I love Tramon, but I think he was on the decline, so in my opinion, House was the biggest loss. We definitely need some more options at ILB for depth, but I really liked having Barrington and CM3 there. If the board falls right, I would feel best getting a CB at 30. After that, I would almost prefer an awesome TE.

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ray nichkee's picture

March 31, 2015 at 08:13 am

Throw in wide receiver. Thompson always gets 1st rd production from 2nd round pics.

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phillythedane's picture

March 31, 2015 at 09:25 am

All teams are only one injury or one contract year away from losing depth. That's why BPA is so important. Ted gonna Ted. Let him.

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MarkinMadison's picture

March 31, 2015 at 10:31 am

My idea of a Shopping List:

1) Tall corner to replace House.
2) ILB who can cover OR an OLB pass rusher and slide CM3 inside most of the time.
3) DE who is over 6'3".
4) Take a chance on a TE who can stretch the seam.
5) Developmental OT.
6) Depth at ILB, FB and S, with an emphasis on guys who can play special teams.

Honestly, yes, TT can get all of it in one draft. It might be even easier if he trades back out of the 1st round.

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EdsLaces's picture

March 31, 2015 at 11:10 am

When I hear players like #12 say that Rich Rod (sorry hard not to call him that when I said it for so many years being from WV) has possibly the best hands on the team...it's hard to believe they would draft a TE in round 1. I mean hands that good should be able to hold down the fort for the next year or two as long as he can do some decent blocking as well which he's improving on. I don't know how this isn't yet again a defense heavy draft. I would hope itd be Kendricks, Dawson or Anthony at MLB. Johnson PJ Williams or the kid from kid from UCONN that can jump to the moon at CB but I guess it's hard to tell what TT is gonna do sometimes.

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EddieLee's picture

March 31, 2015 at 11:38 am

A first round pick is supposed to be at least a 5-8 year starter. What will your "needs" be next year? 3 years from now? With injury and free agency, teams just cannot predict needs. So, good GMs draft best player available who they think will lock down roster spots for years and years. Bad GMs chase short term needs in draft. For TT, need comes into play when it's your pick and you have multiple players all about rated the same. But, Ted just isn't going to pass over a higher rated player (OT, OLB, DL, etc..) to reach for a short term need. (ILB, CB, etc...)

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Evan's picture

March 31, 2015 at 11:56 am

"But, Ted just isn't going to pass over a higher rated player (OT, OLB, DL, etc..) to reach for a short term need. (ILB, CB, etc...)"

He has in the past (Raji over Crabtree), but it all probably comes down to how far apart the true BPA and the BPA of need are rated.

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gr7070's picture

March 31, 2015 at 12:49 pm

The League is all about quarterbacks!

Why do so few notice that TT has, with a great percentage, either taken a QB, OL, or DL (OLB pass rusher included) with his high picks.

After those three premium position groups comes the next tier catching the QB's throws and stopping them (WR/DB).

The ILB position is far down the list on importance. It's barely above FB. ILB is the middle relief pitcher of the NFL and the FB is the backup catcher. TT is not taking an ILB with a first round pick unless he's a potential difference-maker ILB which there are very few of and those guys go in the top 10 picks <-- hopefully you don't see a need to comment about Hawk.

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TKWorldWide's picture

April 01, 2015 at 04:32 pm

I have noticed TT often takes QB, OL, or DL (pass rusher) in rd 1.

I have also noticed that when TT takes a QB in the first round, the guy turns out to be freaking awesome.

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Tundraboy's picture

March 31, 2015 at 01:24 pm

I somehow feel they know what they have already and have to believe they learned from last year's mistakes. This draft I just hope it is best football player available as that usually leads to better impact in the first year whether we like to believe that or not. I expect surprises by Hubbard,Thomas and Pennel but it sure would be nice to pick up some more talent at LB,CB and TE. Team is pretty loaded if they do and others step up. Only must is the middle LB position but does not have to be a 1st, just do not see the #1 talent there at 30

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ES 1957's picture

March 31, 2015 at 06:33 pm

I think there's a good chance that Thompson will trade the first pick down and try to get the ILB and CB needs met in the 2nd and 3rd.

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4thand1's picture

April 01, 2015 at 08:11 pm

Last year was of the 1st times most people agreed on the 1st round pick.

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TKWorldWide's picture

April 02, 2015 at 07:34 am

Not that it matters, of course.

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