The Lass Word: Who Falls to Pack at No. 25?

Late first round superstars are rare.

It’s that time of year when we start to get pumped up for the NFL draft in the spring.  We entertain ourselves in the meantime doing mock drafts and developing crushes on our favorite college prospects.  The biggest hype, of course, is for Day One, the first round.  The day when all the big names get taken.  The day where all the future stars are found, right? 

Well, maybe not as many as you might think.  First of all, let’s define what a “star” player is.   For purposes of this article, I am defining a star as someone who achieved at least one Associated Press First Team All Pro recognition.   Let’s take the last six drafts as our sample size.  There were a total of 191 first round picks in those six drafts.  Out of those, only seventeen went on to make at least one first team All Pro unit.  That’s a little over seven percent. 

I was surprised to find some very big names that have never been selected first team All Pro.  Names like Josh Allen and Joe Burrow.  They have the misfortune of playing in an era where Patrick Mahomes has commandeered the first team quarterback slot mostly to himself.  

As for the Packers, they have drafted several star players over recent decades, but very few in the first round.  In fact, since 1988, Green Bay has had only three first round selections that went on to be first team All Pros, Sterling Sharpe, drafted in 1988, Aaron Rodgers in 2005, and Clay Matthews in 2009.  Fourteen drafts have gone by since the Pack nailed a first teamer.  The closest they came was Jaire Alexander, who made AP second team in 2020 and 2022. 

(Side note:  In researching Green Bay’s draft history, I also had to endure being reminded of many of the team’s all time first round bombs, such as Tony Mandarich, Ahmad Carroll, Justin Harrel, and Jamal Reynolds.  Ouch.) 

Which is not to say the Pack hasn’t found good players in the first round.  In the last three decades they have hit on Aaron Taylor (1994), Vonnie Holiday (1998), Bubba Franks (2000), Javon Walker (2002), Nick Barnett (2003), AJ Hawk (2006), BJ Raji (2009), Bryan Bulaga (2010), Kenny Clark (2016), Rashan Gary (2019), and of course, Jordan Love (2020).  Those players went on to be solid starters during their careers, and obviously Clark, Gary and Love could still reach loftier status.  Quay Walker, Devonte Wyatt and Lukas Van Ness might also get there one day.      

But for every Kenny Clark, there are first rounders such as Derek Sherrod (2011), Datone Jones (2013), Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (2014), Damarious Randall (2015) and Eric Stokes (2021).  You can’t exactly classify them as total busts.  They all had their moments, but never really achieved the consistent level of play the Packers needed from their first round status.  Misses such as these really hurt a team, and collectively may have even cost the Packers another run at the Super Bowl during the Aaron Rodgers era.  (Stokes can still rewrite his story but he may not even start for this team in 2024.) 

The Packers have been able to mitigate some of their first round disappointments by unearthing many late round gems such as Adam Timmerman, Donald Driver, Scott Wells and Mark Tauscher in round seven, Aaron Kampman, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Micah Hyde and Aaron Jones in round five, and David Bakhtiari in round four.  Those are the kind of picks that earn general managers new contracts.  But the first round is where the glory resides. 

This year Green Bay has the number 25 pick in the first round.  Over the next two months there will be endless speculation and excitement over who that selection will be.  And rightfully so.  It’s a fun time of year.  Will it be a safety?  A running back?  An O-lineman?  Brian Gutekunst seldom does the expected, so it will likely be a name you did not see coming.  Chances are we will be disappointed at first, then as we learn more about the player, we’ll feel better and better about it, and by summer camp we’ll be ready to anoint him as our next super star. 

The odds are against it, but who cares?  Let the hype begin! Cooper DeJean, I’m looking at you. 

 

 

 

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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.

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12 points
 

Comments (96)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
NickPerry's picture

February 19, 2024 at 06:21 am

I really like DeJean but it will depend how he runs at the combine. I just looked at three different draft profiles on DeJean and they have him anywhere from 4.3 to 4.5 in the 40. If he runs in the 4.4's or less, I highly doubt he'll be there at 25.

Each one of the draft profiles mentioned his hips through. They all said he doesn't have the ability to REALLY sink his hips...Hmmm, I love these internet scouts!

The idea he's bigger and could play either CB, or Safety is a big plus. Especially for this team right now which lacks BOTH.

9 points
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PackEyedOptimist's picture

February 19, 2024 at 06:36 am

Typed the same comment simultaneously! (Great minds,,,etc.) :-D

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NickPerry's picture

February 19, 2024 at 07:16 am

HAHA...I see that.

GO PACK GO!

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Guam's picture

February 19, 2024 at 07:59 am

Is Dejean's leg (broken fibula) healed enough that he will be able to run full go at the Combine?

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Coldworld's picture

February 19, 2024 at 09:07 am

The lower leg injury was in fact just a break?

That term often means much more damage to tissue: muscle and tendon. It’s the same description applied to Stokes’. Those don’t heal fast like a clean break and often result in related soft tissue problems For a while after (see Stokes again).

I’ve looked, but I can’t find anything to clarify. The post injury comments were universally disconcerting though. If it’s more like Stokes’ injury then it’s possible he’d need to red shirt and that it may decrease athleticism too. I imagine that the Combine/pro day season will shed light on this unless anyone here knows more?

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Guam's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:05 am

I haven't been able to find anything more than "broken fibula" with "some soft tissue injury". I also haven't been able to find any information as to whether Dejean plans to attend the Combine. Hard to speculate on his draft status with such uncertainty around his health.

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golfpacker1's picture

February 19, 2024 at 09:40 am

DeJean was never 4.3 or 4.4 fast at Iowa. He will probably run low 4.5s which would be fine because he is an athlete who 'Plays Faster' than his 40 time. The game just slows down for him. He is also not flashy as in "Hey look at me." He just gets the job done every game and gives a team the bonus of elite punt returning to boot.

Depending on how we use him and if he stays injury free, he could be a star. Maybe better than Micha Hyde is & was, and that's a strong comparison.

3 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:01 am

I would use him like Harrison Smith.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 19, 2024 at 11:22 am

He's probably around 4.4 in the 40 dash. He won the Iowa State CH in the 100 meters, 200 meters and 4x100 relays. He is a football, basketball and track guy in the same mold as Jordy Nelson.

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

February 19, 2024 at 06:35 am

It's ALWAYS hard to tell "who will be there" in the NFL draft. There are players who are taken "surprisingly" high or low every year. That's why it's important that a GM gets their Big Board right, and then trusts in their scouting/process/board.

You mention DeJean, who I agree is one who could go later than draft boards are currently predicting; of course, it's a little early to play this game, as The Combine often creates the big rises and drops. If DeJean runs a 4.4, he's probably going before 25.

I expect a lot of Quarterbacks, O Linemen, and Cornerbacks to go earlier than predicted--I expect Bo Nix and JJ McCarthy to go in the first round. CBs are always tough to predict, and guys like TJ Tampa, K Jackson, C Hart, C Carson, etc. could be some GM's crush and go in the first.

Purely draft-wise, the group I'm most interested in this year is the defensive linemen; I think they are a very enigmatic group; I dare anyone to correctly guess what order they will go in!

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TKWorldWide's picture

February 19, 2024 at 07:42 am

And edge rushers! They can be highly coveted (thus, over-drafted) as well.

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golfpacker1's picture

February 19, 2024 at 09:46 am

Hopefully no D-lineman get picked by us in the first 3 rounds. We don't need to miss our shots to fill our biggest needs with the best players by overpicking a D-lineman.

Stay the course, be disciplined and fill the needs on the first 2 days. The 3rd day will be tougher as all of our picks are late in the rounds. It will be frustrating to miss out on good players @ positions we need filled go off the board.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:02 am

I trust the FILM over the track meet...

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Johnblood27's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:13 am

and THAT my friend is one reason why you are not on Guteys staff...

Get with the RAS score train or get left at the station... (whistle blowing in the distance)

I would love to see a draft of "football players" early on with the RAS types back-filling the draft board.

Seems as if the RAS-ers are mostly project-projections and that belongs in the mid-late rounds for me.

The GBP need some DAWGS to go along with the superior RAS type guys that already litter the roster. Nothing wrong with having the superior athletes on our side, but high compete level can make up for athleticism ina TEAM sport that also relies a good bit on emotion, motivation and 'want to'.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:18 am

If they offered me a job, I would prove my mettle. No worries.

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Johnblood27's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:47 am

no doubt...

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Turophile's picture

February 19, 2024 at 06:35 am

I don't think pick 25 is going to be a great place to pick (for the Packers) as a lot of guys around there are not positions the Packers want, or are good fits. I expect guys like DeJean to be gone already. However, if you want a QB this might be a great spot for another team chasing one of the 3 second-tier guys to trade up for.

If they can, the Packers should (in my view) trade back to the top of the second round and gather as many picks in the 30-90 range as they can. Add an extra pick along with having an existing pick swapped for a higher one in rounds 2-3.

Six good picks can get you a half dozen upgrades for any of: IOL, ILB, slot corner, outside corner, single-high capable safety, box safety, RB..............maybe you could even get an Edge or DL, if you like the value. That is nine positions if you don't count double-dipping at one position.............plenty to choose from.

One counterpoint for DeJean. His 2023 season was a step down from 2022.

Since the old mantra of the game being won or lost in the trenches still seems to apply, I would not be disappointed to see the first two picks as O line and D line. It isn't sexy, but it is a solid strategy.

6 points
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PackEyedOptimist's picture

February 19, 2024 at 06:39 am

I agree Turo, but I think teams will trade up HIGHER than 25 if they want to get Nix or McCarthy.

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Turophile's picture

February 19, 2024 at 06:41 am

Maybe you are right, it is a giant game of chicken in how long you wait.

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Coldworld's picture

February 19, 2024 at 08:13 am

Pre combine even more so, especially at the back end of round one.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:05 am

I have Nix as the number three quarterback. He can throw the deep out and has great mobility. He has improved year-to-year. He is better than Will Levis.

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Turophile's picture

February 22, 2024 at 04:45 pm

I'd put him rather further down the board at 6th.
Wiiliams / Maye / Daniels / McCarthy / Penix / Nix.

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HawkPacker's picture

February 19, 2024 at 07:23 am

Dejean had a freak injury in practice and missed the last 3 or 4 games in 2023. Maybe that was his step back?

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dobber's picture

February 19, 2024 at 01:25 pm

The offense was so bad in Iowa last year, it's a wonder that defense didn't just collapse...

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golfpacker1's picture

February 19, 2024 at 09:55 am

The beauty of a trade back this year is how strong rounds 2 and 3 are for what we need to fill or upgrade. An extra pick in rounds 2 or 3 would be huge to filling every need on the first 2 days. Day 3 would be gravy and if we hit on half of those picks, it would be a top 5 NFL draft in 2024.

I do think someone will fall that is high on our board for us to grab, but it would be interesting if someone threw the farm at us to move up to #25. An offer we can't refuse, even though it is disappointing to wait all night for a pick late in the round and have it get traded. But it would be well worth the wait on Day 2.

Whatever we do, NO TRADING UP and wasting picks. That could change this from a great draft to a "MEH" draft.

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baldski's picture

February 20, 2024 at 01:29 am

I agree. We have 5 picks in the top 100 players. Going with PFF's top 100, there are 13 Tackles, 3 Guards, 3 Centers for our OL needs. On defense there are 8 DL Players, 6 Safeties, 14 CB's, 6 LB's, and 13 Edge rushers. We should be able to satisfy most of our needs from this group without trading up.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:06 am

Jordan Morgan and T. Sweat in sequence would not break my heart.

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Johnblood27's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:18 am

They would if they turned out like Derrick Sherrod and Jamal Reynolds!!!

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:27 am

Sherrod would have been a ten year guy at RT. He snapped his ankle/broken leg. It took away his push and career ending. Reynolds was a joke from day one/draft day. sherman strikes again. T'vondre Sweat is the Outland Trophy winner, 2023. His issue will be to control the urge to visit the buffet line, but his agents have him working with trainers. This team should Learn how to control the run. This guy gets the job done. He knocked Fautanu on his ass during the Playoffs. I don't think he becomes an issue. The 4-3 requires stout DTs manning the middle.

"In his five-year career at Texas, Sweat has tallied 124 total tackles, five sacks, 15 passes defended and one forced fumble. He'll likely be one of the top defensive linemen selected in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian has praised Sweat throughout the season.

“Sweat has got such athleticism for a big man and can impact the game in a variety of ways,” Sarkisian said. “He can rush the passer. He can defend the run and make critical plays on a lot of these fourth-down stops and third-down stops. He gets his hands on the ball when he isn’t able to get into the backfield. He’s got a lot of tipped and batted balls."

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Johnblood27's picture

February 19, 2024 at 01:26 pm

Sherrod got rolled becuz Marshall Newhouse whiffed on his man screaming around the corner who then dove at the qb and rolled an unsuspecting Sherrod from behind ritht in the back of the knees.

Marshall Newhouse... what a putz!

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 19, 2024 at 02:21 pm

And the guy stayed in the League for ten, or more years.

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Turophile's picture

February 22, 2024 at 04:54 pm

Sweat is too big........so big in fact that he refused to weigh in at the Senior Bowl, so his listed 360 could be 380.

Mike Wahle (ex Packer guard) rather liked Jordan Morgan. He (Morgan) never stood out at any one thing and lacks technique, but Wahle says he can see from the tape that Morgan 'gets-it', he has the stuff you need but has to work on movement and hand usage. Not an immediate starter, but could be a long-time fixture.

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stockholder's picture

February 19, 2024 at 06:37 am

I Love the thought of DeJean.
But I still see Gutey wasting picks and trading up.
His heart throb is CB. So instead of reaching.
Or taking the No Brainer. Your probably right;
as far as taking the unexpected, and automatically
becoming a Super Star.

-7 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

February 19, 2024 at 07:04 am

Michael Myers is easier on teenage babysitters than Stockholder is on the English language. 🔪

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stockholder's picture

February 19, 2024 at 11:16 am

Rabbit hole!

2 points
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NickPerry's picture

February 19, 2024 at 08:29 am

"I Love the thought of DeJean.
But I still see Gutey wasting picks and trading up."

IIRC last year Gutey made a few trades and turned those extra picks into Reed and Wicks. I remember looking at the draft grades after the draft from the so call "Experts". Just about ALL of them graded the Reed pick as a "Reach" and graded it a D.

I think he traded back in those to get those extra picks but my point is this...

I Gute I Trust!

Just saying SH...

2 points
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golfpacker1's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:02 am

That 2nd third rounder would be a great spot to trade back to early 4th while scoring at least 1 more early part of the round pick. The same group of players we need will be available @ 101 vs. #91.

Gutey killed this trading style last year, but please no trades up.

1 points
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Johnblood27's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:20 am

He is due for a head scratcher.

Look for a combination of our 1st plus 4th and one of our 3rds for a move up in round 1.

I dont like it...

Im not advocating for it...

just sayin that it is in his DNA and wont remain dormant forever.

I just hope the move isnt for a QB...

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stockholder's picture

February 19, 2024 at 11:14 am

I get your Just saying.
But it isn't brain science to see what was available first.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:17 am

Generally, he trades down. Love and Savage were trade Ups, giving the four picks. He's 50/50. The trade downs in Rd two worked to his advantage, but I agree with you on Rashee Rice. See if Reed can remain durable. Karl Brooks was the steal of his draft.

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 19, 2024 at 11:06 am

Savage was a trade back up after trading back further, if I recall.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 19, 2024 at 11:33 am

No, Gutedkunst used their #30 pick plus TWO #fours( 114,118) to Move Up for this guy @ #21, after selecting Gary with the #12. He didn't select Brian Burns, Christian Wilkens, Montez Sweat, Dexter Lawrence et.al. CW, you are remembering the Jaire trades in rd one, 2018.

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stockholder's picture

February 19, 2024 at 11:07 am

Alexander extra 3 gone
Burks - extra 4 gone
Savage - The 1 but Two 4s gone ( Thornhill ?)
Love - extra 4 gone
Watson - 2 #2s gone.
Like I said always a wasted pick
Losing Ammo. Thats not 50/50
And I would never have traded down.
When his later picks have failed.
But he did need a PR after trading one.

-2 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

February 19, 2024 at 11:35 am

Watson at the #22 and keep the twos for the TE and RT. So it goes. Not seeing a blue chip in Quay Walker,sorry. Love is a Big Hit, giving up a #four to get up to #26. He was the best value on the Board and I had him rated behind Herbert as the 1&2 guys. Burrow is fantastic, when he is not in Sick Bay.

-1 points
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stockholder's picture

February 19, 2024 at 11:41 am

I would never have taken Wyatt over Watson.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 19, 2024 at 11:45 am

I had Watson at #22 and Wyatt at #29. I still think he is a Sapp-like guy. He had 5.5 sacks last season being held back by Barry. He will thrive in a 4-3 set up. The 2020 draft fiasco was grabbing Dillon and Deguara with over-reaching.

1 points
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dobber's picture

February 20, 2024 at 07:38 am

This defense will likely be a way better fit for most of the DL guys.

I agree on the Sapp comparison. I don't know if he quite has Sapp's motor, but Wyatt can make things happen. My greatest concern with Wyatt at draft time was that he was overaged, and that I questioned how much more development there was to be had.

2 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

February 19, 2024 at 02:49 pm

Well, Walker over Watson did not make any sense. Belichick needed a LB and passed at #21.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 19, 2024 at 02:23 pm

I was referencing the 2019 draft vis-a'-vis 2020 and the Savage disaster. Yes, the cumulative results trend into negative scoring....

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GregC's picture

February 19, 2024 at 06:57 am

A definition of a "star" player that does not include Josh Allen or Joe Burrow is useless. They are star players. Toward the end of the first round, you are not necessarily looking for a star anyway. You just want a really good player.

The mention of Aaron Taylor is interesting because I had been wondering how long it has been since the Packers drafted an interior O-lineman in the first round. Taylor was drafted in 1994, so it's been exactly 30 years. I can't say I'll be excited if they do that again, but it seems to be more possible than it has been in awhile.

2 points
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Curt's picture

February 19, 2024 at 07:37 am

Derek Sherrod - 2011 ... injury ruined his attempt at a career.

4 points
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GregC's picture

February 19, 2024 at 08:03 am

Sherrod was an OT. (And the guy above me now has two up votes for thinking Sherrod was an interior O-lineman.)

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PackerBO's picture

February 19, 2024 at 09:41 am

Taylor played OT in college and the Packers moved him to guard

1 points
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GregC's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:22 am

That means he was a guard who was drafted in the first round. It doesn't matter what position he played in college.

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LambeauPlain's picture

February 19, 2024 at 08:36 am

Using "First Team All Pro" voting as the gold standard of first round success is too much symbolism over substance, IMO.

So much of the selection involves popularity, large market PR, hype, opinions and narratives.

It means as much to me today as the Pro Bowl Game does.

I know it is cliche, but wins, playoffs, and Championships are the substance to focus on for player selections, both drafts and FAs.

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:34 am

ALL-PRO designation has legitimacy. Coaches and knowledgeable Sports writers, not bloggers, or podcasters, or Fans.

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golfpacker1's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:05 am

If we pick that O-lineman after a move back, I would be fine because it is a need. I will add that that first player needs to be a good player that starts and plays a lot. A contributor that makes the team better. If he is a playmaker/gamechanger, then GB hit a home run.

2 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

February 19, 2024 at 07:32 am

Outside of the actual football season, nothing gets me more excited about football then the draft. I have loved the draft since the first time I watched it. I have been enamored with it. They have transformed the event into an entertainment special and I love every minute of it. When they went from a 2 day event to a 3 day, I was pissed at first. I hated that they decided to make this change. But since they have made this change, I have loved it! I really like how they highlight the first round by itself. And I like rounds 2 and 3 also getting primetime views.

The exciting part of the draft is the great unknowns. Every player has a chance to be something special or they could be cut before the season starts. You just don't know what you are going to get.

Looking at this upcoming draft, I haven't really dug into the players very much yet. I am hoping to start doing that soon. I used to be much better about checking out every prospect, but life happens and I have not had the time to do it like I wish I could.

So instead of trying to project who might be available at 25 right now, I'd like to pose this question. Based solely on what we saw from GB in 2023 and not taking any consideration into any free agent addition/subtractions, what position(s), do we need to add to the most.
I think the 2 positions that are at the very top of the list of needing starters at are ILB and S. I think Safety is the top need.

Campbell was out a lot with injury. He has not been the same player as his all pro year due to injury. While I like Campbell, not having that pro bowl/all pro level of play has been noticeable. McDuffie came in and played well when called upon, but I feel like he is a limited player. He did improve this year, but I feel like we really need to add a player next to Walker. Watching the 49ers and how their ILB's just fly around and erase a lot of plays, is such and advantage for their defense. We need to upgrade ILB next to Walker.

At Safety it was basically a circus back there. Savage missed a lot of time, Ford was in and out, Owens didn't play particularly well. I liked Johnson but he was a rookie who is still learning the S position. I feel like S is probably the position on the team that needs the greatest overhaul.

6 points
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Guam's picture

February 19, 2024 at 07:51 am

RCPF: We certainly agree on the number one need which is safety. I have ILB and IOL tied for the number two need. The Packers need to replace Campbell, but they also need to replace RG and provide some heavy competition to Myers at center.

My major concern is the talent pool in this draft does not seem to match up well with some of the Packer needs. Reportedly the safety and ILB classes are thin this year although the offensive line class is supposed to be very deep. I would rather see the Packers take BPA than reach for a position of need. The Packers should be able to get the O-line fixed. Safety and ILB may be more difficult and Gute may have to work some free agent magic with a limited budget.

3 points
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golfpacker1's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:30 am

Guam, we probably need multiple picks @ Safety, RB, and O-line this year. And also need to select a solid CB and LB. That is realistically doable whether we stay @ #25 or move back and gain extra picks. Tier 2 CBs are almost as good as the Tier 1s. We will miss the top 6-7 OTs but will have great 2nd round picks to get what we need, especially interior/combo guys.

The best Safeties shouldn't go in the first round, so GB should be fired up #41 and could get us our choice of the Top 3. With strong picks available in rounds 3, 4, and 5.

The RBs will start falling at the right time also beneficially for GB. In the 3rd round. We don't need or want Benson, Corum, or Brooks, the "Supposed " Top 3. The next tier is so strong with what we need that GB can't help but get 2 good ones this draft. Estime, Allen, Irving, Dillon, Wright, and Lloyd would all fit the bill.

Same with LB, we might miss on Cooper (lacks coverage skills), or Trotter (too small). But the next tier starting with Payton Wilson, who would be perfect for us because he is a 3 down LB and is strong at everything. Right behind him are Junior Colson, Cedric Gray, and Tommy Eichenberg, who are all sideline-to-sideline LBs too.

Normally teams can't fill all their needs, but we have a great chance this year especially in the first 3 rounds.

Lastly, we need to be strong signing UFDAs at RB, S, and O-Line. GB could be a lot better after the draft than they have been.

2 points
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Guam's picture

February 19, 2024 at 11:11 am

I am not a draftnik, so I hope you are right about safety and linebacker. All the overview stuff I have been reading indicates no stars at the top of either the safety or linebacker class and limited depth in both. The Packers need two safeties and at least one linebacker if they don't sign any free agents which is a lot to ask of one draft. I hope the right players fall at the right time for the Packer choices.

0 points
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GregC's picture

February 19, 2024 at 08:25 am

I've come to enjoy the draft as well. Switching the early rounds to prime time has worked for me, as I usually didn't bother watching it on a Saturday afternoon. My only major gripe about the TV coverage is that when it gets into the later rounds, they stop talking about the individual picks and they mostly just recap what happened in the early rounds.

3 points
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10ve 💚's picture

February 19, 2024 at 09:22 am

"My only major gripe about the TV coverage is that when it gets into the later rounds, they stop talking about the individual picks and they mostly just recap what happened in the early rounds."

My thoughts exactly!

I stop watching by the 5th round. Instead I go to the NFL draft website and refresh the screen every 30 minutes or so to find out if the Packers have piced their next player. Then, I lookup that player try to read whatever is available on him, as well as look out for videos of him playing.

1 points
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GregC's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:10 am

I do the same thing. I think that if a TV network is broadcasting the draft, they should stick with it till the end, but what do I know?

0 points
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golfpacker1's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:09 am

I live for the draft RC almost as much as the real season anymore. The only thing I don't like is on Day 3, when the picks are coming faster, it seems like the draft gurus lose focus and talk about anything BUT the players that have just been picked. If they could clean that up I would be thrilled. I want to hear a positive comment about the player my team just selected, especially if I am not familiar with them.

2 points
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WD's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:38 am

I agree that the critical needs are at Safety and ILB. Assuming Campbell does not return ILB becomes even more critical. So far I see Quay and McDuffie At ILB The one position crying for a free agent is Safety. It doesn't have to be a top tier as costs matter. Perhaps a second tier to pair with Savage. I saw Mel Kiper's mock draft had ILB Edgerin Cooper going to Jaguars at 24. If available at 25 Packers should take him. He is considered the top ILB in the draft. We can still draft another safety in a later round. With a free agent Safety and a first pick at ILB we can then address depth at O=Line, D-line and CB and RB before we get to round 4. We have to open up the vault a tad bit to get an upgrade at Safety with a free agent. Period

0 points
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HarryHodag's picture

February 19, 2024 at 07:38 am

I'm sure I'll be writing something similar to this a few times before the draft.

Myth 1) Top draft picks are sure-fire superstars. You only need to look back at the draft over many years to see there are just as many busts as great players taken high in the draft. The real issue is how ready is the draft pick to play at the pro level? It's clear he can compete at the college level but the next level finds everyone bigger, faster and smarter.

Myth 2) You can't find impact players outside of the top picks of the first round. All you need to defeat this argument is look at the Packers draft last year. With the exception of Carlson, Nichols(injured and gone) and DuBose(practice squad) the rest of the picks contributed heavily. If you use the draft logic that only top picks are any good, how do you explain the work of Wicks, Valentine, Brooks, Wooden and others? If the Packers make the Super Bowl soon Gute's 2023 draft might be compared to the Jack Vanisi drafts of the late 50's that enabled the 60's championships.

Myth 3) Taking a player late in the first round is a waste of time. Jordan Love is about to sign a $50 million per season contract. Enough said.

Don't fall into the trap set out by the draft gurus. Good players are found everywhere. They need good coaching, some ability and a desire to succeed.

12 points
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PackerBO's picture

February 19, 2024 at 09:42 am

Spot on Harry!!!

1 points
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Vachio's picture

February 19, 2024 at 11:55 am

We got some QB named Rodgers with pick #25, too. That worked out OK.

0 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

February 19, 2024 at 07:44 am

A little premature to write Stokes off already.

11 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

February 19, 2024 at 07:47 am

Agreed.

But, you have to prepare to not have him also. Not saying they need to draft someone in the first round, but they definitely need to add to the position.

5 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 19, 2024 at 08:05 am

We need to add simply on numbers. We have got 3 QBs who we know anything about Jaire, Valentine and Stokes. The other two we’ve not seen much of since they arrived in mid season and could just as well not make the summer as be eventual roster candidates.

I don’t write off Stokes. Hafley’s philosophy seems a much better fit for him than Barry’s approach the last two seasons. However, one has to allow for the fact that we do not know yet if he’s the same athlete as before and therefore, as you suggest, plan depth accordingly.

We also don’t have a slot type at all if Nixon is gone and no depth even if he is back. That may well be more if a S type, but it’s a true DB need in addition to perimeter CB, FS and SS.

1 points
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Spock's picture

February 19, 2024 at 09:13 am

"We have got 3 QBs who we know anything about Jaire, Valentine and Stokes." Wow, I did not know they were quarterbacks too! :)

0 points
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10ve 💚's picture

February 19, 2024 at 09:29 am

Spock, Spock, Spock!

He was mentioning that we have 3 QBs (Love, Clifford, McGough)... and that those 3 know about Jaire, Valentine and Stokes.

😁😀😂

0 points
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Guam's picture

February 19, 2024 at 07:56 am

Agreed. Stokes issue isn't talent. It is staying healthy and then playing in a scheme that suits his talent (press man). I think Hafley takes care of issue #2. Stokes just needs to get his hamstrings figured out.

5 points
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Oppy's picture

February 20, 2024 at 12:54 am

Didn't Stokes have complicated foot injuries? I thought he had something similar to a lisfranc injury.

1 points
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WD's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:49 am

Spot on. It is extremely premature to write off Stokes What is the latest update? last I heard he was not in a coma. People do heal from serious injuries ya know.. When Jaire and Stokes were both healthy we had some very good cover CBs. Also Valentine seemed to improve every game.

1 points
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10ve 💚's picture

February 19, 2024 at 08:45 am

"Chances are we will be disappointed at first, then as we learn more about the player, we’ll feel better and better about it, and by summer camp we’ll be ready to anoint him as our next super star. "

This one cracked me up... especially the anointing part... and totally TRUE!! 😁

4 points
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dobber's picture

February 19, 2024 at 09:16 am

I think there are so many different ways to attack pick 25 that I'm keeping an open mind and looking for **gasp** BPA. There's going to be plenty of churn this off-season and next--that's the way of the NFL, and you need to be planning ahead--and there are plenty of positions needing help as a result (not to mention being redefined by a shift in defensive philosophy), but they might be looking at those early day 1-2 picks in the lens of who departs after 2024 rather than just plugging holes this season, too.

Safety is definitely the weakest position on the roster right now, but we're about to enter 6 weeks of free agency prior to the draft. I expect the landscape on this roster to look very different at a couple key positions by that time. Gute has made a habit of shoring up glaring holes by finding depth pieces and reclamation projects leading up to the draft...it gives him more latitude to chase opportunities on days 1-2.

2 points
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golfpacker1's picture

February 19, 2024 at 10:46 am

I wonder Dobber, how they will approach FA this year? Obviously, we will be more active, although hopefully not stupid by blowing the whole wad on one guy. Also the right 2-3 players could make a huge difference in the caliber of next years defense. With better LB and Safety play we can't help but be a better run defense team.

What I wonder is if we take the spend more and get the players we want right away method? Like with P Smith and the other Edge that year. Or if we are more measured and wait players out.

I would be thrilled if we picked sign fast and locked down Jeremy Chinn-S, Bobby Wagner-LB, and a solid, younger Edge like A J Epenesa so we can move on from P Smith in 2025 to complete the youth movement/reload. Even if we had to slightly overpay so we can fill the positions we need. Those 3 aren't big money players anyway but they fill our needs perfectly, and we are still in good shape cap wise.

1 points
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dobber's picture

February 19, 2024 at 01:19 pm

"I wonder Dobber, how they will approach FA this year? "

I think they'll still be cautious as they dole out a couple contracts (Love's deal, for example, will have a lot to say on what they can spend in March and April), but I think they'll look for good opportunities. Those might come after the frenzy of the first week or so of FA.

It's an odd place to be: their accomplishments in 2023 will lead to fans wanting to see aggressive moves for 2024, but I still think 2025 is the year. I think the key moves for 2024 will be through the draft, and they'll conserve cap for 2025 to make a couple splashes and extensions to "finish"...that's assuming 2024 doesn't yield significant regression.

0 points
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golfpacker1's picture

February 19, 2024 at 07:19 pm

I would think we would be attractive to some younger FAs just because our team is so young and also the upward trajectory our team is on. Also, as long as we didn't insult them with low dollar contracts.

Since it doesn't sound like there will be any high dollar signing and I am glad of that, I would advocate that if we are interested in certain FAs we should try to secure them as soon as possible. Get it done and we can concentrate on the draft.

1 points
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bean's picture

February 19, 2024 at 09:16 am

Here's the difficulty in predicting when DeJean is drafted. I point this out only to reflect how the league views this, no reflection of my own views.

There hasn't been a white starting cornerback in the NFL since 2003 (Jason Seehorn) for whatever reason. There is currently only 1 white cornerback in the league, Riley Moss with the Broncos and coincidentally, another Iowa guy.

If teams hold true to this league wide perception, teams will view DeJean (consciously or subconsciously) as only a safety prospect. Teams looking only for a cornerback will give him less consideration on their boards regardless of his ht/wt/40 time.

It will be interesting to see if he drops (and I expect he will) in the draft. The good news is the Packers need both positions and if DeJean drops to them they can determine which spot suits him once he's on the field. Although, my expectation is, if the Pack drafts DeJean it will be to play safety.

3 points
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GregC's picture

February 19, 2024 at 09:22 am

I doubt that NFL teams pay attention to skin color in players anymore. It's stopped being an issue even at QB. If the guy can play CB in the NFL, he will play CB in the NFL.

3 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 19, 2024 at 11:12 am

I certainly hope not, especially in the Franchise Lombardi had at the forefront of talent over color or creed.

0 points
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golfpacker1's picture

February 19, 2024 at 11:07 am

It would actually benefit GB if Cooper ran a slightly slower 40 time like 4.52. Even 3/10 of a second is enough to turn some teams away, kind of like RAS with GB. Either way Cooper is one of those rare athletes that plays faster than his time. The games slow down for him.

Funny, but another Hawkeye and former Packer, Micha Hyde is a great comp for DeJean. Hyde wasn't a 4.3 guy either, but the game slowed for him too. Both guys are playmaker/ gamechangers who impact the games they play in.

As with most Hawkeye players, DeJean is also not a "Tool" like too many pro athletes who are more about themselves than the team. The intangibles don't stop there. Cooper has great hands too, because he was a standout offensive player in high school. He won't drop easy INTs. He also seems to always be in the right spot at the right time. He is one of only about realistically 4 players I would be comfortable picking @ #25 if they fell. Otherwise fleece some greedy team by trading back.

3 points
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dobber's picture

February 20, 2024 at 07:47 am

Safety is as much about instincts and smarts as it is about footspeed. You can run fast, but if it takes you an extra beat to figure out where you need to go, you'll still be late to the party. This is part of why competent FS play is so valued in the league. Those guys who almost automatically diagnose and know where to be are just too few and far between, and that reaction time usually more than makes up for a twitch on the stopwatch.

The elite FS of recent times were both fast and smart. The film will show what they need to know on a FS prospect, whether it's DeJean or someone else. I don't know that any testing at the combine--and I'll bet Dejean doesn't run--will make a lot of difference in how scouts and GMs see him.

0 points
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golfpacker1's picture

February 20, 2024 at 09:39 am

There has been no info out of the Iowa team about Coopers recovery time from the broken leg. At one time there was talk about him trying to return for the bowl game. At least someone talked him out of that.

He might not run @ the combine, but maybe @ Iowa Pro Day. Either way DeJean is the real deal.

1 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

February 19, 2024 at 09:20 am

From what I read about this class, it seems OT (quality and depth) and IOL (solid depth). The Packers have a talented QB and receivers. Give Love time and he will find them. Expect 2 OL will be selected in the first two days.

CB is a strong class and I would not be surprised if Gutey selects 2 in the first two days...unless he trades up for a guy like DeJean to give Hafley his FS.

Like Josh Jackson, DeJean played CB/zone at IA. Jackson may have been a better fit at S as he was exposed as a press corner. And DeJean is also more athletic and has been consistently productive (Jackson was a one year wonder). I think DeJean could be ideal playing the deep Center Fielder. And the S class is very weak this year.

LB has good depth...especially with heavier prospects. Still have some good hybrid types, but I believe the LBs have to be good thumpers and tacklers for Hafley's room. The new DC seems to insist on solid tackling skills. That would be nice!

RB is weak. So I remind myself Jones was a 5th rounder and Jamaal Williams a 4th.

But who knows...Gutey may again surprise...like last year when he traded from #45, not once, but twice for additional 5th and 6th round picks while moving down to #50. Netting Reed, Wicks and Brooks looks like a sublime move.

DT, Edge, TE are weaker this year. However, those Packer position rooms are well stocked. Always a chance for a BAP/value picks.

1 points
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golfpacker1's picture

February 19, 2024 at 11:24 am

Sorry I disagree.

Safety has about 8 we could take in rounds 2-3 who would be great in GB. I would include round 4 but in the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds, those picks are way late in those rounds. Any of these: Nubin, Kinchens, Bullard, Bullock, Hicks, Vaki, Williams, Oladapo, or Mustapha would be upgrades for us.

LB does not have good depth with only about 4 legitimate choices for us. Cooper, Wilson, Colson, and Gray are the cream of the crop. None are first round speed burners and Wilson is the best all around. He is fast, can tackle, is the best cover LB, and is big @ 6'4 240lbs. We should have multiple options in the 3rd round to pickone. The wild card would be if we traded back from an earlier pick and have an extra 2nd or 3rd.

The RB class is not weak at all, especially where we are picking one, should be @ #88 or #91. I will include the perceived top 3 RBs Brooks, Benson, and Corum, although I wouldn't pick any of them because I like all these others better, And none will be picked in the 1st or probably even 2nd rounds.

Give me any of: Braelon Allen, Audric Estime, Bucky Irving, Jaylen Wright, Marshawn Lloyd, Will Shipley, Dillon Johnson, or Ray Davis in round 3 or 4. All good bellcow RBs who catch the ball really good as well as run. There are some nice sleeper guys later too.

This draft is set up very well for GB to be extremely succesful filling our biggest needs in the first 2 days. Even if we trade back from #25 for more picks.

5 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

February 19, 2024 at 01:05 pm

Of the safeties you mentioned only Kinchens, Bullock and Nubin fit as a single high FS and Nubin is a maybe there. As I've said before DeJean played one snap of deep safety in his last three years at Iowa and I'd be very surprised if the Packers felt good at projecting him there. DeJean could be an ideal nickel if they let Nixon walk but most teams usually don't take a nickel back that high.

0 points
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Handsback's picture

February 19, 2024 at 09:51 am

Last year about this time I was listening to XM NFL channel with Bill Polian (sp?) and his take on prospects was that once the all-star games were done, they have their rankings done.
Here was what I thought was interesting...after the Combine, they may move a player higher or lower within the round they have slotted him. According to him, it takes an act of God to move him up a round. They can move him down for character issues but never did they move a player up 2 rounds.
Saying all of that, teams right now have their boards 80 to 90% done. The only key to look at right now is to see what some draft boards look like. After the Combine the internet draft experts (sarcastic statement) change their boards to match what the best performers did during the testing. Lately, it's getting better but the pre-combine draft analysis is usually a better indication than post Combine particularly for the first round.
The reason I've posted all this is to look at all the 1st round guys 3 before and 3 after that 25th pick and see what makes sense for Green Bay. Bottom line.. expect a CB to be taken with their first pick.

4 points
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PhantomII's picture

February 19, 2024 at 09:57 pm

If you don't think the OL needs a big upgrade at C and IOL or even OT. Go watch the Raider game again. By the way let's trade for Crosby.

0 points
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Ferrari-Driver's picture

February 20, 2024 at 12:03 am

Getting an all pro would be ice cream on that apple pie. I hope at least we get a quality starter who can fill one of the several needs we have on the team. One other thing, I hope he is a "football player" and not a player who is injured with supposed great potential that may or may never come to fruition. We have a goodly number of earlier picks this year and we need to draft quality players.

I had previously read up on Cooper DeJean and I will admit, I did like what I found out. He appears to be a solid football player with talent who fills a top need for the team. At this juncture, I would be happy to have him, but if he is unavailable, I do like a couple of offensive linemen who might still be on the board for that first pick.

1 points
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Oppy's picture

February 20, 2024 at 12:49 am

There's so much flawed analysis here.

1) If you are dictating a "star" player is a player that is voted 1st team all pro, and you are selecting the last 6 drafts as your sample size, you are effectively giving older draft classes up to 6 times as many years to develop into a 1st team all pro selection. A player drafted in 2023 has only been in the league one year, but a player drafted 6 years ago is well into his second or third contract. All-pro selections in general are typically established players, true veterans who have developed and are generally 26 years of age or older (there are always some young players, of course. Offense tends to trend older, Defense younger, linemen are typically much older, Dbacks often very young.) If you are going to pull a 6 year data set, it may be best off to look at draft years 2012 through 2018. This would provide all the players you are assessing for "star" status at least 6 years to develop into their best form and hit that 26, 27 year old sweet spot that roughly half of all 1st team all-pro selections fall into.

2) You note there were 191 first-round draft picks in the 6 draft years you reviewed, and only 17 of those players received 1st round all-pro honors. You also go on to say "Misses such as these (non-"star" first round selections) really hurt a team." Disregarding my above statements about player maturity for a moment.. there are roughly 30 to 40 1st team all pro selections every year (depending on whose list you refer to.) That means during the same 6 year period you've analyzed, there were between 180 to 240 selections. Only 17 1st round draft picks earned a spot amongst that group of 1st team all-pros. That means that between 163 to 223 1st team all-pro selections were drafted in round 2 or later.

If that is the case, then why is it that NFL fans assume if you're not "hitting" on a star player in the first round, it ends up 'really hurting' your team? If the majority of "star" players are being found outside the first round, maybe the first round selections aren't as important as everyone makes them out to be. It's long overdue that we start accepting that drafting is a crap shoot and assessing a player's ability to develop is as much art as science. People need to start assessing drafts as an entire body of work, not grading it based on how an individual player grades on on a sliding scale based on where he was selected.

At the end of the day, you have to assess the pool of talent you have assembled as a group. You have a yearly salary cap in which to put together the best collection of talent you can- it doesn't matter what round drafted, free agent, walk on.. And for every overpaid first round "bust" getting paid "too much", there's probably 3 lower-round or undrafted free agents who are playing at an all-pro level who aren't getting "paid enough". It all comes out in the wash in the end.. or it doesn't. The NFL places too much weight on draft status when you look at how talent actually pans out. First round is, generally, boom or bust. The rest of the draft produces talent, too.

1 points
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MooPack's picture

February 22, 2024 at 02:10 pm

Btw, DeJean is not going to compete at Combine. So there is first red flag. Maybe at Pro Day later. So he may well “drop” to #25. But now you have a risk factor with the injury.

0 points
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