The Case For Keeping The Void Year Guys

The Packers need to acquire quantity and quality at several positions during this off season. 

 

We need to discuss the players who have contracts ending due to void years.  It is a little urgent because some time next week the ability to retain these players before the entirety of their dead money hits the cap will end.  None of these guys are must-keep players, but they all played a lot of snaps in 2023, and two of them were preferred though rather marginal starters.  So, let's look at Darnell Savage, Keisean Nixon, and Yosh Nijman.

DARNELL SAVAGE:

Teams usually keep 10 defensive backs including 4 or 5 safeties.  The Packers have Alexander and Valentine as viable starters in the defensive backs room.  Stokes, Ballentine, and Anthony Johnson, Jr. are guys who are returning and can at least play some snaps in the NFL.  That's 5 of the 10 spots and 2 (both CBs) of the 5 starters.   They might re-sign Jonathan Owens, but he is a better story than player.  True, Owens can at least play in the NFL, and I am okay if a bit meh if they decide to re-sign Owens.  CB Robert Rochell and S Zayne Anderson are  RFAs, both of whom the Packers certainly will decline, making them unrestricted free agents soon.  CB Zyon Gilbert, plus safety Benny Sapp are on the 90-man roster.  Should the Packers re-sign Owens, probably for little more than his minimum salary, they would have 6 DBs arguably capable of playing defensive snaps.  The Packers need quality and quantity.

So, let's look at Savage.  If the Packers do nothing with him, a $5,456,800 dead money hit will hit the cap in 2024.  For a journeyman safety who can backup the free safety spot and play closer to the line without being an enormous liability, I am going to assume the free agent market is $3.5M, but it might be less.  I am not viewing Savage as a preferred starter.









COSTS TO LET WALK

---

PRICE TO RETAIN SAVAGE

'24 Dead Money

Draft pick/Fa

 

NEW

SB Pro

Cap #

Dead

Save

$5.456M

$868K-$1.8M

 

$3.5M

$1.364M

$4.86M

$4.09M

$593K

If they do nothing, that full $5.456M dead money hits the salary cap in 2024.  The Packers would still have just 5 players in the defensive backs room if Savage leaves.  The $5.456M plus a depth replacement player is the cost, in my view.  The price to keep Savage would be $3.5M in new money in 2024 (say $500K for workout and GA Bonuses - $1M total) and $2.5M in base salary.  The Packers would save $593K in cap space in 2024 and there would be a dead money hit of $4.09M in 2025, down from $5.456M.  As long as the salary cap keeps going up - and I see no reason to doubt the NFL's money-making machine - a dollar (earned or saved) in 2024 buys more ballplayer than it would in 2025.   

Since they would need another body that can at least play defensive snaps if need be, it could be a draft pick (or a free agent).  I entered OTC's estimated cap numbers for pick 41 ($1.8M) and pick168 ($868K), Green Bay's 5th round pick in this year's draft.  It could be Owens, who earned $1.5M last year.  I don't think Owens distinguished himself on the field, but he didn't hurt himself.  He would be okay, I guess, but I think Savage was better.   Rudy Ford is another apparent option, but I think that is a mirage.  OTC listed Ford as a healthy scratch in 2 games last year and I can think of four more games (weeks 13 - 17) in which he played a lot of special teams snaps but didn't get more than 7 defensive snaps.  Ford was a did not play in Weeks 18 to 20.  Ford was in the doghouse for reasons unknown.  Owens (775 snaps), Ford (626), and Savage (558 snaps - missed 7 games) combined to play 1,959 snaps in 2023.  Anthony Johnson returns: he played 303 snaps, earning a 45.6 PFF grade.  

Verdict:  Extend Savage.  He can be the # 3 safety.  The Packes can sign a free agent to play the single high safety position and draft another safety fairly high.  Savage fits in as the #3 safety, and Owens, if re-signed, or a day three safety could be the #4 and #5 safeties.  Savage is the only guy with thousands of NFL snaps (even if they are so-so) who the Packers can put on the 2024 roster while saving some cap space.

   

KEISEAN NIXON:

Nixon's contract voids on February 20.  He has signing bonus prorations of $370K for '24, '25, '26, 'and '27 which would accelerate into a total of $1.48M in 2024 in dead money if he is not extended soon.  Even I can't get too excited about saving $370K in dead money by using an early extension, but the Packers might as well if they intend to retain his services for 2024.  Nixon played the most snaps (809) of all the CBs on the team in 2023, and also was the primary kickoff returner, and a pretty good one at that.  As a CB, he was a low-end to average starter (59.8 PFF grade).  Most teams would be looking for an upgrade.  He earned $4M and probably was worth more that or thereabouts.  OTC valued his 2023 play at $5.1M.  He does bring some toughness to the team, in my opinion.  He is a decent tackler (7% to 8% in most season, but it crept up to 11% in 2023).

I don't see a viable internal replacement.  Alexander could play the slot, but he is more valuable as a perimeter corner and playing slot entails more contact.  Asking a rookie to play 800 snaps is a big ask usually requested only of first and second round picks.  The Packers have three of those, but they also have multiple positions that could use a significant infusion of talent.  Nixon is more of a player evaluation and/or Roster Construction issue than a cap issue.

Verdict:  I am largely agnostic on Nixon.  The Packers have to find a viable starting slot corner.  It doesn't matter to me if that player is an outside free agent or a premium draft pick.  I am assuming that Nixon's cap number would be somewhere in that $4.8M to $5.4M area.  I think it is ;possible to find a better free agent slot who might cost more in terms of annual average value but whose 2024 cap number would be roughly similar on a three or four-year contract. 

Yosh Nijman:

 Nijman is another player who is more of a player evaluation and roster construction issue than a cap issue.  He has bonus prorations of $635K for 2024 through 2027 which accelerate if he is not extended soon to a $2.54M dead money hit.  Nijjman is fine as a swing backup tackle.  The Packers have Tom and Walker as the starters, with Caleb Jones and Luke Tenuta waiting in the wings.  We haven't seen Jones in NFL games, but the Packers have kept him on the 53-man roster; they apparently think highly enough of him that they are concerned he would be poached from the practice squad.    

I must confess that I have always had a lower opinion of Nijman than most fans.  NFL teams are desperate for offensive tackles who aren't terrible.  I think he probably is worth more to other teams than he is to the Packers.  I also think this draft is strong and deep in OTs.  I am unsure of his market value; I suspect that some team might pay him $3.5M or more.  At that price, I have no interest.

Verdict:  I would let Nijman walk and hope for a compensatory pick.  I think it might be a moot point.  It may be that Nijman was not enthralled by his demotion and would prefer to move on.  I don't know how Nijman feels about Green Bay and vice versa.    

Photo courtesy of Kyle Terada, USA today Sports

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 points
 

Comments (63)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 15, 2024 at 05:21 am

Since I suspect that I am advocating for an unpopular course of action, I decided to be upfront and use a photo of Savage getting beat by Kittle for a touchdown in the conference championship game. I couldn't find a photo that also showed him missing the tackle on McCaffrey and dropping an interception.

No question that was a bad game, nor is there any question that a better safety would be great to have. I heard Andy Herman say in his podcast that he was done with Savage. I would note that Herman also said that he had graded Savage with just a slight negative through the first 18 games. Apparently, Andy gave Savage a whopping -2.65 grade for the SF game. Still, a zero grade is a neutral or average grade for a player in Mr. Herman's system. I would add that PFF gave Savage a 66.3 grade, a solid green (above average), though that I take with a few grains of salt.

I am not advocating for Savage to be the starter, just quality depth and a break-in-case-of-emergency guy. I fully expect the Packers to sign a FA safety, perhaps blackmon, Fuller or Gardner-Johnson. Winfield and McKinney look really expensive and I don't like Stone. Savage might come in handy if: 1) the new FA does take to the system; 2) the draft pick needs a year; 3) the draft doesn't cooperate by having a safety on the board with the proper value when the Packers pick; 4) injuries; 5) the free agents don't reach free agency.

3 points
4
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stockholder's picture

February 15, 2024 at 06:21 am

I can replace Savage - It’s just this easy-
DeJean could drop-
Kameren Kinchens - could play SS and FS too.
Tyler Nubin - would tackle better.
Bullock - a FS that would Intercept the ball.

Not to mention 3 possibilities later.

2 points
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2
jannes bjornson's picture

February 15, 2024 at 07:48 am

Cole Bishop, Jaden Hicks, Kenny Logan, Jr . from Kansas actually tackles people, Beau Brade...maybe Savage can play in Miami and keep Barry company.

4 points
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NFLfan's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:19 am

LOL

0 points
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stockholder's picture

February 15, 2024 at 06:10 am

Savage must go. If you thought it was Barry. Think again.
I'm not willing to pay a back-up, starting numbers.
I Want better. He's slowed and can't keep up.
The packers could draft any of the 3 top safeties.
If not all. And the guarantees would last for years.

I want Nixon. Finding a replacement won't happen.
He is a up and coming leader. Stability is a plus.

Nijman isn't improving.
I was disappointed.

-2 points
4
6
Oppy's picture

February 15, 2024 at 06:56 am

Did you read the article?

Savage: I don't like the player either, but TGR points out that if you send him packing, you're still paying approximately 5 million.. apparently, you are not willing to pay a back up starting numbers, but you're 100% okay with paying starting numbers for nobody? That is what my mother used to call "biting off your nose to spite your face."

Assuming TGR's analysis of the cap ramification is correct, (and it usually is), the theoretical choice is paying approximately 5 million for nobody in 2024 if you choose to get rid of Savage, or restructuring him and retaining him as a backup with 5 years of starting experience and possibly only having a 4 million hit in 2024- effectively freeing up 1M in cap space in 2024 and having your back up safety.

Let me reiterate, I don't like Savage and I'd rather see him gone, but if the man would agree to an extension where he'd serve as a backup / rotational player and we're getting something for our money instead of cutting him and getting absolutely nothing for our money, I'll deal with my philosophical differences and except the ugly reality that we've got to pay the piper for these ugly voided years contracts and we might as well do it in the most sensible way possible.

Nixon: He's a good return man, although I think his yardage is inflated to a great extent only because he returned an awful lot of kick offs that he probably should have fair-catched (which often would have net the team better field position, but would have resulted in zero return yards for Nixon.) I do think he's got explosive return potential, but he's not a great decision maker and I don't think he's as good a returner as his stats projected.

In terms of playing on defense- he's not it. He's a poor slot DB and I don't think he's an up and coming leader. Availability is nice, but the Packers should be looking to improve at the position. Your pass defense is only as strong as your weakest link. Much like Savage, if he would agree to a contract that projects to a depth signing, sure, I'm for that. But he should not be resigned with the expectation of being one of the top 3 corners for this team.

5 points
8
3
stockholder's picture

February 15, 2024 at 07:36 am

Biting- No I wouldn't sign a FA Safety
Yes I would pay a rookie.
Yes a Rookie can play better then Savage.
Yes A Rookie would be a brighter future.

Nixon is not a crook.
He is a true Blue packer.
The decision making will improve.
He is tradable, if someone better comes along.
But NO one on this team, during MLF years, was better.
(At THAT POSITION)

Gute said he's going to improve the back 7.
But first the depth must improve.

-6 points
2
8
DoubleJ's picture

February 15, 2024 at 09:55 am

"But NO one on this team, during MLF years, was better.
(At THAT POSITION)"

Doesn't matter if you are talking about slot corner or KR that isn't a high bar to pass. Your comment is akin to saying that Justin Fields is the best QB the Bears have had during the last 40 years so they should keep him even though he sucks.

As a slot CB when targeted he gave up a completion almost 80% of the time at 9.7/yards per play. IIRC opposing QBs had something like a 120 or higher QB rating when throwing in his direction. That means he should not be a CB. As a KR the bar was even lower. Nixon cost the team field position way too many times by returning kicks he shouldn't have.

0 points
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stockholder's picture

February 15, 2024 at 11:16 am

No it isn't.
Don't make things up.

0 points
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DoubleJ's picture

February 15, 2024 at 01:36 pm

My analogy of your argument was spot on.

0 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

February 15, 2024 at 01:00 pm

Mach Seven: Valentine's Day Massacre:
#26 Kinchens S Miami
#41 T Sweat DT Texas
#58 Edge Cooper ILB Texas A&M
#88 Jonah Ellis Edge Utah
#91 B. Coleman OG TCU
#125 D. Johnson RB Wash.
#126 Mustapha S Wake F
#146 Goncalves OT Pitt
# 203 Njongata LB Badger
#215 Spann-Ford TE Gophers
#242 A.Gould WR/KR OR.State
#252 Eguakan C Florida
#256 Blades ,Jr CB Duke
FA acquisitions would be CB, OT

2 points
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Oppy's picture

February 15, 2024 at 07:40 pm

I absolutely believe the Packers should draft a safety- potentially a starting safety.

I'm not sure what you don't understand about TGR's scenario- you shit-can Savage, draft the potential safety of the future and pay him, then draft or bring in a free agent safety to be one of your back up safeties and pay him, too.. and then take the $5 million cap hit for Savage who isn't there..

Or, you could draft the potential safety of the future and pay him, then draft or bring in a free agent safety to be one of your back up safeties and pay him, too.. AND renegotiate Savage and have another back up safety and take a lesser cap hit, saving $1,000,000 or so that you could spend on other young talent.

Nixon isn't a crook (whatever that means), but he's also not a good corner. Upgrade.

0 points
0
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jannes bjornson's picture

February 15, 2024 at 07:50 am

He can join the long list of ex-Packs getting paid to sit, or play for another squad. It is just accounting, a write-off. Nixon has pulled in some INTs when given some freedom. Agreed, he is exposed when the Blue chips like Jaire are in sick bay and Douglas traded for plastic buttons.
I still like Anthony Gould as a prospective return guy. Hardman scored the Winning TD in the SB.

0 points
3
3
DoubleJ's picture

February 15, 2024 at 09:44 am

Savage was an ascending player under Pettine but immediately regressed under Barry. To me that means that he was miscast in the Barry scheme.

Nixon can go if you ask me. He is a KR only. As a CB he was a huge liability in coverage. Perhaps he could become a backup deep safety as he has decent hands for a DB.

Nijman can go as well. He regressed during the year and will cost too much.

0 points
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stockholder's picture

February 15, 2024 at 11:37 am

Interesting you want to use that first year.
Ha Ha Dix did great in his first year too.
Point: Both were ROOKIES!

1 points
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DoubleJ's picture

February 15, 2024 at 01:41 pm

Interesting that you failed to remember that Pettine was the DC in 2019 and 2020. Savage was drafted in 2019 and did OK. He was better in 2020 and the Packers were considered to have a top 10 safety group. People were looking forward to the next couple years of Savage and Amos playing together. In 2021 Barry gets hired and Savage started to regress that same year. Barry routinely had his players miscast for their strengths. Instead of emphasizing their strengths he would emphasize their weaknesses hence the garbage D for 3 years.

0 points
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Oppy's picture

February 15, 2024 at 07:51 pm

By the way- 2023 comparison:

Carrington Valentine, 7th round, pick #234 in 2023 (Rookie) was targeted 61 times and gave up 35 receptions.

Keisean Nixon, Undrafted FA signing in 2019 (5th year player) was targeted 77 times.. and gave up 63 receptions.

You need to upgrade at CB from Keisean Nixon.

2 points
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grbfrog's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:56 pm

I would also keep Keisean Nixon. Sure upgrading the position would be great, but we have little to no depth at the position and Nixon has proven to be serviceable.

I have a ton of respect for what he contributed this past year. In my mind, it was an incredibly risky move to hope that a primarily special teams player could step up and be our starting slot corner. I personally thought it was going to be a disaster. But Nixon brought intensity, tackled well, did just enough in coverage, and was available all season. If he got hurt or was a mess, I don’t think we make the playoffs.

So yes I’d definitely like to upgrade the position but I also feel like Nixon deserves recognition for what he brought to the team when they really needed it.

0 points
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Lphill's picture

February 15, 2024 at 06:26 am

49 ers wasted no time in firing their defensive coordinator after the loss.

3 points
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NFLfan's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:17 am

@UH-Some say Wilks was the fall guy.

3 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:39 am

He overrode a Wilkes call in the 4th, calling a time out to enable a change. There was subsequent criticism that Wilks went too passive later in the game. Id say fallout and fall guy.

2 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

February 15, 2024 at 10:58 am

Letting Mahomes burn them scrambling in crunch time and no adjustment with some trackers, put his job in jeopardy.

0 points
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LeotisHarris's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:34 am

Who's Kyle going to fire for the 49ers first half ineptitude on offense and his players not knowing the overtime rules? Didn't they settle for a field goal on their overtime possession?

4 points
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egbertsouse's picture

February 15, 2024 at 06:48 am

I don’t believe in keeping underachievers and stiffs regardless of the cap impact. It sends the wrong message. Savage falls into this category.

2 points
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stockholder's picture

February 15, 2024 at 07:44 am

Yep- How long did they keep Lowrey-
Perfectly stated.

0 points
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3
jannes bjornson's picture

February 15, 2024 at 07:58 am

He paid Nijman 4.3 M to ride the pine. When Tom went down vs the 49rs, Love was an open Target...

2 points
3
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NFLfan's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:17 am

Deguara?

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:29 am

Myers is the Lowry of our OL.

2 points
3
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stockholder's picture

February 15, 2024 at 11:53 am

I know you don't like him.
And I actually Laughed.
But- Jackson Powers-Johnson
OC Oregon will be gone by #25.
He is the "most Drafted player" by Miami fans.

0 points
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dobber's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:38 am

Deguara was on a cheap rookie deal.

1 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:44 am

I’d be shocked if Deguara comes back. It would not surprise me if we have no H back at all. We don’t use the position offensively. We’ve too many other weapons to get in the field.

I would not be surprised if we go with the a TE, perhaps Davis, perhaps Sims or perhaps a true blocker yet to be signed. Davis might well have been our first choice for what Deguara was used for this year. Pearson didn’t impress me particularly.

If Dillon was willing, him as a running full back would intrigue. He’s a good lead blocker and protector. I don’t think that’s likely of interest to Dillon though.

4 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:46 am

A TE/HB who is afraid to block. I like Stover.

0 points
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LeotisHarris's picture

February 15, 2024 at 03:52 pm

Shouldn't there be one category for underachievers, and another for stiffs? Dean Lowry was a stiff that overachieved upon occasion. Savage may be an underachiever in some areas, but when he's given tasks in his wheelhouse he excels.

You can't lump the underachievers in with the stiffs. That's the equivalent of grouping hoarders with ventriloquists.

2 points
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MooPack's picture

February 15, 2024 at 04:05 pm

What if it's a hoarder that keeps a lot of dummies?

1 points
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LeotisHarris's picture

February 15, 2024 at 05:35 pm

Not sure, but that's a frightening scenario.

1 points
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WD's picture

February 15, 2024 at 07:19 am

It sounds like Savage is the controversial player. There is the world of fantasy which assumes whoever we draft will be better than what we have. And, then there is the real world of what we actually have. I didn't hear any calls for getting rid of anyone on defense after the first playoff game where we whooped the Cowboys and completely shut down their passing game. Moreover, didn't Savage have a pick 6 in that game? Unfortunately he dropped what could have been another pick six the following week. But, he was in the right place at the right time. Like it or not, Savage is the best safety we have. Soooo... I strongly agree with the author that we keep Savage. I don't know why some think Savage is somehow too slow. He did run a 4.3 combine which means he is one of the fastest players on the field. Let's keep him and see how things shape up with a new DC. The Packers had a great season and I would be careful making any wholesale changes to the starting rotations. That said CB and safety should be addressed in the first three rounds of the draft. Depending on combine results and how the draft falls. The elephant in the room is how to improve our run defense.

1 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:55 am

He showed his speed on the pick six against Dallas. Speed is definitely not Savage’s issue. The Packers have previously said they time him at 4.36 for the 40. That’s the kind of speed shown on that return.

That’s why it’s a shame he struggles with recognition and angles playing deep. He’s an athletic fit for FS but plays better when he’s instinctive closer to the line not in diagnosing developing plays. Unfortunately his tackling is a consistent weakness, which undermines him as a true box safety, particularly when run support is a significant part of that role, as it has been with Hafley Ds.

1 points
1
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Coldworld's picture

February 15, 2024 at 07:52 am

I was on the fence about keeping Savage being an option partly for this reason until we recruited Hafley. If Hadley does indeed install the general type of defense his past predicts, I just don’t think savage fits.

Despite his speed, Savage isn’t great in coverage deep, he’s always better playing a more aggressive robber type role nearer the line. He’s therefore not a great candidate as a FS in single high looks.

However, the Hadley D requires the SS to be a good and regular tackler. Savage had never been good in run support or consistently reliable in his angles, technique and general tackling.

As a result I fear that Savage would be a poor option at either safety position. I don’t think that’s as true in some other schemes. I think he will be offered by a team looking for a more robber type role.

I don’t know what that market might be, but I think I’d stay out of it regardless. The only way I’d bring him back is if that market fails to materialize and he’s very cheap. In which case we could bring him back to massage the cap, largely as transitional depth (since I don’t know his void date, it’s possible that doesn’t help the cap anyway as a void prior to the start of FA locks it in immutably. Nixon’s is pre the start of the league year and that is the norm).

3 points
4
1
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 16, 2024 at 01:17 am

I agree with all of this except the conclusion. I also agree with Leotis that Savage is an underachiever rather than a stiff. I used $3.5M for Savage to keep it real.

If the Packers can sign him for $2M or less (Owens money), heck yes. Take the $2.1M in cap savings and sign a more expensive (and theoretically better) free agent (at one of several positions).

I just don't see any reason for Savage to lock in low wages in Mid-February. I think a lot of teams will offer Savage $2M in March, and it only takes one team to offer $3.5M. I also think some team will offer $2M and be willing to put in an incentive for $750K if he plays 560 snaps (so the incentive wouldn't be likely to be earned). Heck, the Packers could do that in case the free agent safety or the highly drafted safety guys go sideways. Take the $600K to $2.1M in 2024 cap savings while paying a dead money hit $1.456M less than it would have been while deferring that payment to 2025.

I concede that Savage is marginal. So is Owens, and Anthony Johnson was less than marginal (though he may have upside). Nixon, McDuffie, Runyan and Myers are marginal to varying extents. I am suggesting that it is unlikely for any team to find 5 new starters who are upgrades in one off season.

0 points
0
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Lare's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:01 am

I would defer the decision on keeping Nixon and Savage to Jeff Hafley. He is reportedly an expert on defensive backs so he should already have a pretty good idea (after watching tape) of their abilities and whether or not they can perform in his system.

9 points
10
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Coldworld's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:14 am

Id bring back Nixon in principle not merely for cap for three reasons. Firstly he improved with playing time over the season, his first really playing D. Secondly he has been a reliable kick returner and playmaker at times and a decent punt return option. How quickly we forget what can happen without that. Thirdly, we need depth at slot and he provides that and particularly in run support. I would draft to compete and surpass but with him on board.

The problem with Nixon is what will he demand and what will other teams value him at as a returner and defensive depth? What is his market? If he thinks he can get a big offer he’s gone to FA as he will price himself out here. If that didn’t materialize then he could be brought back. We may offer him a better chance of defensive playing time than others. It all depends on him and his agent, but I’d try to reach a sensible extension.

Nijman was a decent LT while Bakh was out. He obviously isn’t a favorite and was treated like an unwonted spare. Was that because his play fell off a cliff or why? He was thrown out in the playoffs without practice time at RT having been at LT again all season. He was known to apparently struggles with that transition as well. If were him I’d go anywhere but back to us. I don’t think he will have a problem finding a better situation to compete in for him.

I expect Owens to be back. We have nothing at S except a very raw Johnson Jr who looks like a FS in this type of scheme and perhaps Sapp can be a box type SS, but I’m not relying on either. Owens was cheap and OK in the box. I think he suits a Hafley type D SS adequately. Id sign a FA to start at FS and draft to get better behind that with Owens as a transitional piece. I don’t see him having a significant market. I think there is a good chance that works for both sides. If he does get interest, they perhaps bring back Ford.

0 points
1
1
dobber's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:22 am

With Nixon--assuming the Packers want him back--it's all about what you can get now v. what you might or might not get on the open market. I think the Packers will need to offer him a couple years and some guaranteed money...they'll get first crack. He'll have to weigh that v. running the risk of there not being much market for a low-end CB and KR in a league that devalues returns. I expect he'll languish on the market for awhile.

I see Nijman as a guy who frequently got help on the edges--less so as time went by--and someone who didn't grow after there was film on him. Defenses figured him out...or he just never got enough snaps to be "in a groove". If you're that swing tackle and you want/need to make a career out of it, being unable to "swing" isn't a good look.

4 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:28 am

I don’t think he’s a swing. I think he’s a guy that needs time at one spot and a starter or back up. He was a decent LT starter long after they ceased chipping. He was never as good on the right, where they did help him in 2022, but they had refused to even practice him there before that. Then they didn’t keep him there either. We are addicted to swing. Other teams less so. I think one picks him up to compete on the left or at least gives a permanent move to the right.

0 points
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dobber's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:35 am

Therein lies the problem: if he's LT only, he needs to start or he potentially costs you an active roster spot on game day.

My area of training is inorganic chemistry. I teach inorganic, but my research areas span organic, physical, and organic chemistry. In my department, I'm the "swing" teaching guy...I'm teaching Organic 1 this term to go with Inorganic. In order to be that swing guy, I need to be credible in that other area in the classroom or I'm not granting any real flexibility or doing my department (or the students) a service...it needs to happen on limited off-time exposure. Flimsy analogy, but Nijman clearly isn't the guy we thought he could be, and the Packers have invested a lot of time and roster space (although--thankfully--not a huge amount of money) to reach this point. It actually diminishes my optimism for other project tackles like Jones and Tenuta.

3 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 15, 2024 at 09:02 am

I think he finds a team. I doubt there’s any remaining mutual interest here. We forget how many teams struggle for two starting Ts. He’s not coming back. He may disappear, he may return to what he was in late 2021 and early 2022, but he will get a chance somewhere.

0 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 16, 2024 at 01:23 am

I certainly think the Packers need more swingers. We need to look for guys like Hornung and Max. They were great Packers.

0 points
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Guam's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:12 am

I am not a big Savage fan, but the hard question is what are the alternatives to Savage. The Packers don't have the cap space to sign a high profile safety without burying the team in void dollars in future years (see TGR's recent article on the cap). That means they can afford to sign a lower level FA and/or hope they hit on a draft choice in a weak class for safeties. That outlook doesn't give me great comfort about the safety position.

If they can sign Savage to a reasonable deal (anything under $4 million per year), I would retain him on a short term contract. He at least will provide veteran depth and can be schemed for as a known commodity.

0 points
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dobber's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:27 am

I think there won't be a lot of centerfielder, FS types on the FA market--they're just too valuable. Even average ones stay put. Winfield will never get there. Savage, despite his test numbers, has never been that guy.

I agree with Lare: I think Hafley will make the call on what he needs and whether someone like Savage can give him quality snaps. Maybe he has an insight into his regression and inconsistency, or sees a narrowed role where Savage could be a competent and consistent player? If I'm Hafley, I don't think that's a hill I'd want to die on. TGR makes a reasonable fiscal argument that would underlie Savage being brought back.

In the end, Savage is feeling a lot like Kevin King: injuries, inconsistent play--the big difference is that the Packers are on the hook for money on Savage wheras they really weren't with King. They turned around and brought King back to be the #3/4 CB...here, they'll have to make that call long before Savage gets on the market.

1 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 15, 2024 at 09:05 am

Here’s a few unsexy transitional options proposed that wouldn’t break the bank in FA. They would potentially be competent gap bridging options to draft behind:

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/lists/3-free-agent-safeties-with-ties-t...

0 points
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Guam's picture

February 15, 2024 at 09:06 am

I agree with you and Lare that Hafley will have much to say about the retention or not of Savage. I believe part of Savage's inconsistency was his misuse by Barry. I don't think Savage is a true free safety yet Barry often slotted him in that role. Hafley may be better able to use Savage properly.

I think the larger question is will Savage get a better offer elsewhere? I would only keep him if he is cost effective.

0 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 16, 2024 at 02:10 am

Very interesting. Is Owens a better SS type than Savage, and if so, by how much? Owens got paid $1.5M. Assuming some cap inflation, let's say he gets $1.75M. If GB pays him $1.75M, their cap space is reduced by $1.75M. If they pay Savage $2M, GB gets $2.1M in additional cap space. That's a $3.85M swing. [At paying Savage $3.5M. it is still a $2.35M swing.]

Owens needs to be noticeably, maybe considerably, better than Savage in that role.

0 points
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stockholder's picture

February 16, 2024 at 11:33 am

Yes - Owens is a better safety then Savage
If we can pay 3mil to an old TE.
We can pay 2 mil to a safety thats versatile

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jannes bjornson's picture

February 16, 2024 at 11:18 am

Fuller from the Commandos can go CB to free safety.

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RCPackerFan's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:29 am

Savage was good when Pettine was the DC. He was not as good with Barry. So my question with him, is if he is used in different role is he going to be a better player?

Nixon I feel like could be a good safety. He is a good tackler and it seems like he plays well with plays in front of him.

Yosh has been a very good role player for us. But this past year he regressed. He failed to beat out Walker. I feel like it is time to get another OT. Unless they can sign Yosh to a vet minimum, I would move on.

1 points
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dobber's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:37 am

"Nixon I feel like could be a good safety. He is a good tackler and it seems like he plays well with plays in front of him."

You've just described a lot of FA strong safeties out there who got added to rosters when they expanded to 90.

0 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

February 15, 2024 at 11:02 am

Fuller the free agent CB from Washington, is a guy who could transition to Free Safety.

0 points
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LeotisHarris's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:38 am

A lot of people standing by the CHTV virtual watercooler are saying TK is entering a void year. Just what I heard.

1 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

February 15, 2024 at 08:50 am

I think we're all hoping for a defense that is more than the sum of its parts. 9 to 10 defensive backs have to come from somewhere, and both Nixon and Savage are at worst adequate. Systems can compensate for adequate players.

1 points
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lou's picture

February 15, 2024 at 09:22 am

Based on the way the offense played last season and the prospect for a good draft this team has real Super Bowl potential if they stay healthy and get a consistent kicker. Looking for "adequate" starters on the defense defeats that goal. How many wins were possible last season when all they needed was one more defensive stop.

1 points
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Leatherhead's picture

February 15, 2024 at 09:54 am

I don't know, Lou, but one more successful drive on offense in 3 games would have made us 12-5 last year (Denver, LV, Atlanta). Also, it would have beaten the 49ers and put us in the Championship game.

I think if you're scoring 30 ppg, what you do on defense isn't quite as important as if you're scoring 22 ppg.

0 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

February 15, 2024 at 01:57 pm

Yes of course, they should absolutely draft 4 pro bowlers for the secondary who are ready on day one. That's obviously the answer.

0 points
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Leatherhead's picture

February 15, 2024 at 09:51 am

TGR, I think we should try to keep Savage. Nixon I don't really care about, or Nijman, but as I sit here and look at our 2024 roster, we need 5 safeties and we have 0.

I'm not a guy who throws things away because they aren't good enough or don't fit right. I don't just get rid of cars because I have a better one. I do maintenance on them and drive them. When we have 5 safeties that are better than Savage on the roster, that would be different, but we don't, and we won't by Opening Day. It'll take a rookie a couple of years just to make some of the mistakes Savage has made, and that's assuming he can stay healthy and on the field.

Savage is affordable, he's relatively durable, he's a top athlete, and we should keep this guy.

5 points
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WD's picture

February 15, 2024 at 12:47 pm

Well stated Leatherhead

1 points
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