Surviving Sunday: Packers news, notes and links for the football deprived
By adamczech
Despite the fact that the Packers are ignoring free agency this offseason like they do most offseasons, ESPN"s Rob Demovsky managed to write some interesting posts from the NFL owners meetings this week. This post on how the Packers will have to (once again) improve from within in order to reach the Super Bowl was especially interesting.
Obviously, every team wants to improve from within, whether it signs any free agents or not. Improving from within is also easier said than done. We assume young players will get better from year one to year two, year two to year three, but it doesn't always work that way.
With the Packers, I think fans may have gotten a little spoiled watching the likes of Tramon Williams, Jordy Nelson and Josh Sitton consistently get better during their first four years in the league. That's made watching players like Davante Adams and Eddie Lacy regress that much tougher.
But having to improve from within is going to be a simple fact of life for the Packers in 2016, just like it is most every season. Here are five players who, in my opinion, 1) will have to improve in order for the Packers to reach the Big Game and 2) I feel have a realistic chance to get better.
RB Eddie Lacy
This is probably the most obvious choice. We've seen Lacy truck defenders and run for 1,100-plus yards before. With a new fitness regimen and, hopefully, a longer leash from Mike McCarthy, I see no reason why Lacy can't return to form.
DT Mike Pennel
Yes, Pennel is suspended the first four games of the season, but that doesn't mean he won't take a big step forward. Pennel is 6-foot-4, 332 pounds. I've liked what I've seen from Pennel at times, now it's time for him to take those moments of brilliance and turn them into consistent, sustained excellence. I think he can do it, and with a gaping hole in the middle of the defensive line, the Packers need him to.
LB Sam Barrington
I've been driving the Sam Barrington bandwagon since the Packers drafted him. Coming off a major injury, there's a realistic chance Barrington may not even make the team. But I'm not giving up my drivers' seat on the Barrington bandwagon yet. I think he can bounce back and give the defense the extra attitude and jarring hits (think Desmond Bishop) against the run that it needs.
WR Ty Montgomery
Another player coming off of a major injury. Yes, Jeff Janis and Jared Abbrederis will get most of the hype heading into training camp, but I think it will be Montgomery who ends up shining.
QB Aaron Rodgers
Wait, what? Rodgers is a Super-Bowl winner and two-time MVP and you want him to get even better? Well, yeah. Rodgers struggled often last season, there's no sugar-coating it. In Rodgers' case, getting better means returning to MVP form, and hopefully, coming up big in the playoffs like he did during the run to the Super Bowl in 2010. Yes, it's a lot to ask, but the Packers are built around their All-World QB and they need him playing at an all-world level.
You'll notice I do not have WR Davante Adams on my list. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I don't see Adams as much more than a complimentary receiver. He lacks speed to be a true difference-maker. The same can be said for TE Richard Rodgers.
I could have added T David Bakhtiari to the list. Bakhtiari didn't play poorly in 2015, but if he cuts down on penalties, doesn't have to battle nagging injuries all season and repeats what he did in 2014, the Packers offense will improve (and Bakhtiari will get a giant free-agency payday).
Packers news, notes and links
- Sounds like the Packers are done with James Jones. Man, the NFL is a rough business. "Thanks for helping salvage last season for us, James. Here's your pink slip."
- Datone Jones will be making the move to outside edge rusher. I'd laugh, but it worked out pretty well for Mike Neal. Kevin at LombardiAve.com asks: Can Jones or Nick Perry be the successor to Julius Peppers? That might be a stretch, but we'll see.
- I always enjoy reading the various viewpoints on Ted Thompson's approach to free agency and team building. I thought this was a good post on the topic over at Acme Packing Company.
- During an appearance on the "You Made it Weird" podcast, Aaron Rodgers claimed he saw a UFO in 2005. I dismiss this claim as nonsense, much like my grandkids will probably dismiss it as nonsense when I tell them about the season where I saw Rodgers complete two Hail Mary passes at the end of games within a two-month span.
- Have you ordered your CheeseheadTV 2016 NFL Draft Guide yet? What, you haven't? Well, what are you waiting for? Order it now!
Non-Packers links and other nonsense
- Axl Rose is the new AC/DC singer? I want to be there for the fight between Rose and Angus Young when Axl is 2 hours late to the arena for their first show.
- Here's the inside scoop on how Nike lost Steph Curry to UnderArmour. Make sure your PowerPoints are always up to date, folks.
- This cover of Nirvana's "In Bloom" off Sturgill Simpson's upcoming new album is amazing.
- Metallica sold out the Vikings new stadium in 10 minutes. Minnesotans are much more excited to see heavy metal in Ziggy's new palace than they are football.
- Book recommendation: "Boys Among Men" by Jonathan Abrams, an excellent read chronicling the history of high school players jumping straight to the NBA.
- Cancer Update: Not much new to report. The battle the last week or so has been more mental than physical. Round 5 of chemo is scheduled for Thursday. Thanks again to you all for the thoughts, prayers and support. Happy Easter!
Comments (42)
marpag1
March 27, 2016 at 07:34 am
As I understand it, the NFL draft is not "improving from within," right?
I can't help but see a certain irony in the arguments of many people who are frustrated with TT. They complain that TT (and his "apologists") are ignoring or at least downgrading free agency, and then they turn around and pretty much completely ignore and downgrade the entire NFL draft. Heck, they package the two things right in the same argument. A typical one goes like this:
"Curse that evil Ted Thompson. He's ignoring free agency!! Now he has NO OTHER WAY TO IMPROVE except from within!!"
Um... the draft? Hello?
zeke
March 27, 2016 at 07:57 am
Ted only drafts Ted's guys. Maybe that's what they mean?
adamczech
March 27, 2016 at 08:08 am
Drafting players is definitely improving from within. But when I asked Ted who he plans to draft he wouldn't tell me so I didn't include any upcoming draftees in my list of five.
marpag1
March 27, 2016 at 08:22 am
If the draft choices were already "within" I don't know why you'd have to ask Ted who they are. But clearly, they are not within.
Thegreatreynoldo
March 27, 2016 at 08:14 am
I do hope there is no Prozac shortage in your town, Marpag! Yes, Adam's phrasing is unfortunate. Demovsky does mention that help can be obtained through the draft a couple of times. And yes, on this site there were some comments recently that could be read that way, and one person who wrote it explicitly. The reality is that draft choices often take most of the season, sometime multiple years (see links). But yes, we can expect help from the draft, especially this draft, if TT is on his game. And it might be enough help to put us over the top. I will now return to slogging through game tapes of college prospects. I hope to watch tape of 100 players prior to the draft, because help, this season, can be obtained, and I can't criticize TT for his selections if I don't put in some work (yes, I know that having some basis of knowledge is not necessary in order to criticize TT, but I at least like to have at least some semblance of knowing something about the process.
http://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/rookies-just-arent-that-good
http://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/how-much-can-the-packers-expect-from-their-...
marpag1
March 27, 2016 at 09:55 am
For the record, there is no Prozac to be had over here at any price. You can, however, get cheap knockoff brands from India that may or may not kill you, and that cost only a tiny fraction of the US price.
From reading your reply, however, it does not seem that I'm in trouble. If I read you correctly, you're saying that the wording is indeed "unfortunate," that the argument I referenced is indeed made, and that reinforcements can indeed be had through the draft.
So if believing what I do implies a need for Prozac, maybe I can borrow some of yours. ;)
Oppy
March 27, 2016 at 02:48 pm
Im not sure if you are missing it or willfully ignoring the difference these people draw between free agency and the draft, but that difference is drawn because a free agent signing is theoretically battle-ready, having already been developed during his own 3-4 year rookie contract (or however many more years he's been in the league), and if the Packers don't plug a hole via that free agent signing, now they are forced to rely on whomever they already have in the cupboard, and hope they've improved.. because while a draft pick is indeed from "outside" the organization, they are rookies, green, and untrained to NFL level competition. At a position of need, it is implied that the guys we already have aren't that good, otherwise, it wouldnt be a position of need.
All that said, the public's concept of what backups are bad, good, up and coming or sliding is probably anywhere from somewhat to totally different than what the coaches who train them daily believe. For the most part, I just let the Packers do their thing and see what plays out.
TarynsEyes
March 27, 2016 at 04:40 pm
" For the most part, I just let the Packers do their thing and see what plays out."
You make solid reply Oppy but you simply believe that discussion, difference of opinion should not be held and that all should abandon such and keep their fan hood mute via the coaches know better than those who are not a coach. There are many, as like in any profession, that are qualified but have not be afforded a chance or choose not to be in the profession actively. Whether any here fit that bill is of no consequence but it doesn't mean they or anyone should not discuss things and just accept what happens as the end all. Your passion for the game may be a lower level than others and your fine with simply watching it but some want or need to feel a more vested interest for whatever reason may warrant.
The mere accepting that they 'must know better' because they work as this or that is a dangerous thing and for example, politicians live by the belief that the public knows nothing, and yet every job is filled by a one time assumed know nothing.
Because one didn't aspire to be in a position don't mean they aren't smarter or know more. : )
Oppy
March 28, 2016 at 12:57 am
Actually, while it doesn't mean they are any smarter, it does mean they know more. That's just a fact, and to believe otherwise is either wildly egotistical or completely ignorant.
Those in the NFL have access to inside information far above and beyond what even a dedicated, high-level fan like yourself who watches every single NFL game that is played by every NFL team throughout the season.
Lastly, I didn't comment on what others should or shouldn't do. I simply stated how I approach it. But by all means, rant on.
LASVEGAS-TOM
March 28, 2016 at 02:11 am
Tarynfor12, I think I agree with you, especially the part about the Politicians, but I sure had a Bad Saturday & Sunday at Bally's. Even skipped a Free Sterling Brunch. $90 each, + a 2 room Suite with a Nice bar & Jacuzzi. This time of year, you never win in a Casino. You just borrow the money.
LVT
marpag1
March 27, 2016 at 05:38 pm
In those cases where people actually do make the argument you have outlined, Oppy, I am neither missing it nor willfully ignoring it, but rather I am disagreeing with it. I don't disagree with the notion that players often take some time to develop. I disagree with the notion that you cannot get immediate help from the draft. I also disagree with the notion that immediate help is the only kind of help that we ought to be concerned about. But if it's immediate help you're looking for...
In 2015, rookie Damarius Randall played 72% of the defensive snaps, which is more than all other Packer defenders except Hayward, Matthews and Clinton-Dix. The Packers also got significant contributions from Rollins and Ryan, and undoubtedly would have gotten much more from Montgomery if he hadn't gone down with an injury.
In 2014, rookie Corey Linsley started all 16 games and played an amazing 100% of the offensive snaps, which obviously led the team. Rookie Clinton-Dix played 86% of the defensive snaps, which was more than all other Packer defenders except Burnett and Tramon Williams.
In 2013, Rookie Eddie Lacy played 60% of the offensive snaps, and was named the league OROY. He also went to the Pro Bowl and was named second team All Pro. Rookie David Bakhtiari started all 16 games and played 99.7% of the offensive snaps, trailing only Sitton who didn't miss a play.
In 2012, rookie Casey Hayward played 62% of the defensive snaps, with only five defenders playing more (Matthews, Hawk, Walden, Tramon Williams and Burnett). He racked up 6 INTs and made the PFW all-rookie team.
2011 was obvious a lousy draft, with the best rookie being Randall Cobb who managed about 375 yards receiving.
In 2010, rookie Bryan Bulaga started all 16 games and has a Super Bowl Ring.
So those are the past six years. In only one of those six years was there NOT at least one rookie who made a significant impact on a team that was already very good before he arrived. So why do so many people say, "Well... yeah... but.... y'know.... rookies never really amount to anything?"
Nearly everyone acknowledges that this year's draft boasts one of the deepest D-line classes in recent memory. It is absolutely possible that Green Bay could land an impact rookie or two. And if we put a stud DT in the middle of the D-line, we can all watch how quickly Ryan/Barrington/Palmer/whoever start looking pretty good too.
RobinsonDavis
March 27, 2016 at 09:10 pm
"Nearly everyone acknowledges that this year's draft boasts one of the deepest D-line classes in recent memory. It is absolutely possible that Green Bay could land an impact rookie or two".....
I agree with this, but again point out, that drafting impact D-linemen in the first two rounds has not been Ted's forte.
Oppy
March 28, 2016 at 01:05 am
Marpag, I didn't say I don't believe you can't get meaningful contribution from draft picks, and I certainly didn't say that "immediate need" is the only thing we need to be concerned about. I was simply explaining the mindset of fans that you seemed to not understand per your post.
I, myself, am perfectly fine with how TT and co. are managing the Packers roster. Sure, there's a guy here, a guy there I would have preferred been picked up or cut. Overall, however, I'm happy.
MarkinMadison
March 27, 2016 at 08:33 am
Speaking for myself, I don't ignore the draft, but you are ignoring reality if you think all problems can be solved in the draft - especially in the short term. The TE class this year is especially thin and it is a position where the Packers desperately need a quality upgrade. Right now you've got RR, who gets no YAC and is too slow to be a regular threat up the seam, and you've got who? Quarless? Not even signed right now, and the Packers don't seem interested in bringing him back. If the draftniks are to be believed there are 1-2 guys who can contribute at TE in year 1, and if one of them doesn't fall into TT's lap then where are you at? Then there is the other area of weakness - ILB. The Packers need a 3-down ILB who can cover and who is not a liability against the run. The Packers have been waiting for the right TE and the right ILB to fall into their lap via the draft for at three years now. It has not happened.
And while we've been waiting 3 years (really, more than that for ILB) for these two positions to get sorted out other needs continue to come and go. Those needs have to be taken care of as well. We know the OL will undergo a major overhaul next off season. TT's habit is to draft for these things a year ahead of time to give himself more flexibility in dealing with his upcoming free agents. (See CB last year, and see WR the year before.) And quite frankly the group may need an overhaul because it has not lived up to its billing the last two years. So when TT looks at his board and sees the BPA is a guy who is OL or DL, and not TE or ILB, he will probably go ahead and take the BPA. And then we will all sit around going, "Gee, I thought he was going to get a quality TE and an ILB in the draft, but, hey, at least he got this 4th rounder - signed this Undrafted Free Agent, he might be o.k. with a year or two of development." Just like last year. And who knows, maybe he'll even get lucky and one of the late-rounders will be o.k. in year 1. Just like Jake Ryan. He's solved all the concerns at ILB with his performance last year, right?
You know who else thinks the Packers need to do something in free agency - Mike McCarthy. Why else would he say, "We might surprise some people in free agency this year." MM knows that he has a finite window with #12 at his peak. MM threw out a public comment that put TT into a bit of a corner, and it is silly to think he didn't know he was doing it. And next off-season when we are again discussing the TE and ILB positions you can bet that MM will take his comments to another level. Because if he has to go looking for new employment he wants to look at people and say, "Yeah, TT just didn't give me the horses, and everyone knew it."
Tundraboy
March 27, 2016 at 12:40 pm
Great summary. Essentially there are 4 picks each year that could potentially result in a player that makes an immediate impact, but more likely in a year or two. Our immediate needs are at least 3 deep. So some combination of internal improvement and hitting big on a pick or two is essential. Silver lining is that there is a very good chance at least one pick will be for a potential starter on D where it will do the most good. That's all we can really expect.
Oppy
March 27, 2016 at 02:51 pm
If you are including TE as one of those three immediate needs, I'd beg to differ.
Can it be improved upon? Yeah, absolutely.
But it's hard to say it's an "immediate need" when the current TEs on the roster are the same ones from 2014 when the Packers offense was the best in the league.
Tundraboy
March 27, 2016 at 03:22 pm
Yes. Pass rushing DE,cover ILB, and TE, We just have RRodgers and I'm assuming OL is healthy.
croatpackfan
March 27, 2016 at 11:43 am
"MM knows that he has a finite window with #12 at his peak."
Can you provide us the link of the video or article where Mike McCarthy said that? Because I do not see it as you see it. I do not think that Aaron Rodgers reached his peak. I think and feel he will reach his peak in the next few years. Also, many of you, who are so anxious about Packers sign any FA from another team, forget one simple fact: Aaron Rodgers played 3 years in row with either significant injury (broken bone!) or nagging injuries (calf and knee). In those 3 seasons Packers where one milimetar away of winning WC game against SF (missed interception by Mycah Hyde!), lost NFCCG and lost DRG. Pretty good result achieved with injured QB, do you agree?
Also, once again, where is the warranty that any FA will play at least good. Data from the history are story of the overpaid busts for 95% FA signings. Why you are not take that data in consideration when you are talking about signing other teams FA? I know why not. But I will not write that today. Today is Easter!
Btw, Happy Easter Adam. I hope your fight will finish with your victory...
adamczech
March 27, 2016 at 01:51 pm
Here's the bottom line on Ted and free agency this offseason, in my opinion: Lacy, Sitton, Lang and Bak are up next year. If he wants to retain most or all of those players, he's going to have to carry over some cap space.
That's what I tell myself whenever I see a reasonably priced FA sign elsewhere, anyway.
croatpackfan
March 27, 2016 at 02:16 pm
I think Packers will sign Jared Cook at last. Mike McCarthy said that it is on business part now. So, it is not Ted Thompson nor Mike McCarthy, it is now in the hands of Russ Ball. And I think more time will pass better deal Packers will get from that deal! One year with minimal guaranteed money? I bet Mr Ball goes for that. Prove to us you are worthy and you'll get longer deal!
dobber
March 27, 2016 at 04:36 pm
The way I look at it, he's really limited to writing one-year deals and short-term, low-no guaranteed money deals at this point...and he has been pretty much all along (look at Perry, Starks, Guion, etc.). Do we wonder why Cook isn't a Packer? He's still fishing. If TT had been chasing a little more, the writing would truly be on the wall for next off-season and those players you mention...
croatpackfan
March 28, 2016 at 01:35 pm
I said it (JC will be signed!), you got it!
NickPerry
March 28, 2016 at 05:06 am
Here you go Croat, a link where MM said that.
http://espn.go.com/blog/green-bay-packers/post/_/id/28256/packers-mike-m...
croatpackfan
March 28, 2016 at 01:38 pm
"MM knows that he (Aaron - addition from me) has a finite window with #12 at his peak."
Can you copy paste part of the article from your link where Mike McCarthy said what you are claiming that he said? I read that article several times and did not find that statement from mike McCarthy.
"Could GM Ted Thompson, left, and coach Mike McCarthy be worried that the Packers' championship window is closing? Jeff Hanisch/USA TODAY Sports" - THAT IS QUESTION MADE BY Mr JEFF HANISCH, NOT CLAIM by Mike McCarthy!
I thought you will be honest in that claim... My bad!
Hematite
March 28, 2016 at 05:19 am
Well played!
NickPerry
March 27, 2016 at 06:43 am
Interesting take Adam, a fat guy, 2 injured players coming back, and a suspended player at the top of the list. I'd say it's a good start of a list of players the Packers need to improve, but I'd add in a few more.
Jake Ryan should be on the list for sure. He's faster and IMO the best ILB the Packers have not named Matthews. He wet his nose last season and improved by the end of the season. He should be able to play much faster this year, more reaction less thinking.
Couldn't agree more on Montgomery. I believe this kid can help take the Packers offense to another level.
Strange you didn't put Nelson on the List. IMO Nelson has to be near the top.
Ditto on Lacy.
adamczech
March 27, 2016 at 08:10 am
Much like Adams, I see Ryan as already close to his ceiling so I didn't include him. Hopefully I'm wrong.
Yeah, Jordy should've probably made the list. I guess I just assumed he'll go back to being Jordy so I overlooked him.
NickPerry
March 27, 2016 at 12:07 pm
Good to see you replying Adam. I hope Ryan isn't to close to his ceiling already though you might be right. I guess I was thinking if he's playing, reacting, and not thinking as much as rookie seems to in Capers defense, he'd make a jump.
RobinsonDavis
March 27, 2016 at 09:27 pm
I feel it is too soon to tell, but do believe Ryan made improvement as the season progressed, Adam. Yet, I too believe we need to improve at ILB, and now, look forward to the draft. We have to replace Matthews numbers at ILB to see improvement in the defense IMO. Would love to find a thumper who can cover a back and TE running down the field.
Point-Packer
March 28, 2016 at 01:02 am
"fat guy" is an understatement. More like obese. Lacy was garbage last year and deserved every ounce of shit he got.
NickPerry
March 28, 2016 at 05:11 am
Check this out Pete, I was shocked at the weight loss thus far, seems like he's taking it serious. If Eddie comes in around 225 or 230 Look Out!!
http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/green-bay-packer-eddie-lacy-weight-lo...
dobber
March 28, 2016 at 07:12 am
He's playing for $$$ at this point. He has every incentive to come in at weight, although 225 or 230 might be a little light for how he likes to run. I think 235-240 is probably where he belongs.
RCPackerFan
March 27, 2016 at 09:48 am
Just wanted to wish you the best of luck Adam. Stay strong and keep fighting my friend!
Happy Easter everyone!
Tundraboy
March 27, 2016 at 09:59 am
You as well.
dobber
March 27, 2016 at 12:39 pm
"The Packers need a 3-down ILB who can cover and who is not a liability against the run."
Arguably, they need two. With the changes to blocking rules, teams that rely on the run might be hampered and the pass will continue to grow in importance in today's NFL.
Denise Chanterelle
March 27, 2016 at 03:36 pm
Dear Adam: Although we've never met, I always enjoy reading your insightful articles on our beloved Packers. Mahalo for that and I wish you the best in your health battle. We're all pulling for you! Aloha.
adamczech
March 27, 2016 at 05:24 pm
Thanks!
adamczech
March 27, 2016 at 05:24 pm
Thanks!
cheddarhead
March 27, 2016 at 05:55 pm
The metallica concert is at TCF bank stadium not US bank. And it sold out in 10 minutes. Some people are reselling them on line for 10000 each. If only the Queens could sell out that fast.lol
adamczech
March 27, 2016 at 08:12 pm
No, it's at US Bank. First rock show in the new building.
Point-Packer
March 28, 2016 at 01:01 am
"With a new fitness regimen and, hopefully, a longer leash from Mike McCarthy, I see no reason why Lacy can't return to form."
Ah, that short leash was more than warranted. Dude was fat, slow, fumble prone and generally useless last year. Only RB in the NFL that would//could/did run out of gas 5 yards from the end-zone. I get the asthma diagnosis, but when you have asthma and you are a professional athlete, you shouldn't spend the off-season eating Culver's butter burgers five times a week.
Dude didn't deserve anything more than a short leash.
Thegreatreynoldo
March 28, 2016 at 04:41 am
Marpag1, the Prozac thing was a punch line from Frasier. Corey sometimes picks up on my plagiarisms of that show. I was mostly commiserating with you regarding how some discount the draft entirely in the off-season equation. I thought maybe that was driving you crazy, but I accept your assertion that you are in no need of Prozac. BTW, I am prescription drug free: just Tums, 2 beers/month & 8 aspirins/year.
I do think one should evaluate the entire off-season talent equation - Incoming and returning vs. losses. So far we have lost Hayward (914 of a possible 1051 snaps) Raji (444), Hayward (914), Tolzien, probably Neal (734), Q (114), JJ (1045 of 1148 off. snaps), Richardson, maybe Kuhn (305), Mulumba and Barclay. Returning talent includes Nelson, Monty, Barrington, and Boyd.
Positives:
Nelson > JJ = big upgrade.
Monty > ? = could/should help the team.
Barrington > Palmer (539 snaps) = upgrade
Boyd vs. ? = useful player: on the bubble?
Slim Eddie > Phat Eddie = probable upgrade
Negatives:
Raji > Guion/Pennel (Rookie???) + depth loss
Hayward > ??? (Rookie) + big depth loss
Neal > ??? (Perry?, D. Jones? Elliott or Rookie?)
Tolzien > Hundley = Modest downgrade
No Loss or Gain:
Q, Richardson, Barclay, Mulumba
Kuhn > Rip, but Kuhn might be re-signed.
Reconciliation of Talent:
Offense: It is probably reasonable to forecast that the return of Nelson, Montgomery, [a healthier OL and a slimmer Eddie - but these are not technically talent acquisition] will improve or fix the offense. A FA TE or WR, while perhaps useful, is probably not necessary. Until Hundley shows me in an NFL game where 1st stringers play and use complicated defenses, I have to consider Hundley a downgrade, tho with upgrade potential.
Defense: The loss of 3 starters is offset only by the return of Barrington, somewhere btw a marginal and just okay starter. Raji played well early, and very well in the playoffs, which is important for a SB contender. If TT takes a Rd. 1-3 pick to replace Raji, loss probable in 2016 play, possible upgrade late 2016 or eventually. Neal was reliable, and still played twice as much as Perry last year. Not sure D. Jones, Perry, or Elliott are interchangeable with how Neal was used. Guess here is TT takes an OLB to replace Neal (or an ILB who allows CM3 to move to OLB) in the first 3 or 4 rounds. Upgrade in 2016 can't be ruled out, and upgrade eventually is very possible. Loss likely in 2016 depending on the pick. It is going to be hard to replace Hayward's 914 snaps, just in terms of depth. The reasonable candidates are Randall (755 snaps), who can pick up some snaps, and Rollins (323). Hyde no longer seems to be ascending, and Gunter hardly played.
As to prior years, one should expect the infusion of draft talent to improve a team over its losses. In 2015, I'd say that Randall and Rollins were noticeable upgrades over the losses of Tramon and House, and will (* the future is unknown) be large improvements over how Tramon and House would have played for us over the next 3 years or so. We got some modest surplus from Monty (due to injury) and Ryan, with more surplus expected in 2016. The rest did squat.
2014: Lost EDS, JJ, Wilson, Newhouse. Draft = big + yr 1.
2013: Lost Jennings, Walden. Draft was a big upgrade year one especially if one assumes Jennings would have been as bad in GB as he was in MN.
2012: Lost Matt Flynn and Scott Wells. Signed Saturday. Draft was Perry (200 snaps), Daniels (225) and Hayward (683). Wells to Saturday was a large loss, ameliorated a bit when EDS replaced Saturday late. Perry (6 GP, 18 tackles, 2 sacks) was okay and showed flashes, but not that much immediate help. Daniels (12 tackles, 2 sacks) same as Perry. Hayward was the immediate help with great play, inc. 6 INTs, 21 PDs, 35 tackles. [He never came close to these stats again, but we are talking about immediate help, not injuries or whether he was a "good" pick.]
There is a lot to disagree with here, but I think we are basically in agreement on what began this. IDK who TT is going to pick, but we can really hope for immediate help with this draft. That said, if TT picks a DE, OLB, OT, CB, OG, OG in Rds. 1-4, all of whom need a year to develop, that is fine with me, as I prefer the best talent to relying on the draft for immediate help. If the talent is good, they usually help reasonably soon anyway.