Punting/Kicking Camp Competitions Are Pointless

Punters and Kickers have a bad enough rap already; many fans barely consider them football players and punters and kickers are some of the lowest paid players on a roster.  Still, nothing riles up the fan base faster than when a punter/kicker chokes or shanks the ball.  Case in point, Mason Crosby had an abysmal year in 2012 with a 63% success rate and many fans thought Crosby should have been cut mid-season.  Ginger Wolverine Tim Masthay basically pulled a Mason Crosby last year some of the worst punting numbers in his career and like clockwork, fans were asking to cut him this offseason.  However, instead of cutting either Masthay or Crosby, after such seasons the Packers have brought  in "competition" in hopes of getting the best out of their kickers, in 2013 Giorgio Tavecchio was brought in to push Crosby and this year Green Bay native Peter Mortell was signed to push Masthay.

While competition has always been considered a net positive for the team, the one exception might be for punters and kickers. In practice, there simply aren't enough reps to really make any solid conclusions; the typical practice this training camp has gone something like Masthay punting 4 times while Mortell punts 3; trying to assess a punter by 3 punts is basically foolish, even medical journals typically require a bigger sample size.  That number drops exponentially in the preseason, coaches would rather see the offense go through a variety of game situations like 4th and goal/4th and long and will eschew punting the ball away, meaning there are often times where theres only one punt in an entire game.  

Furthermore there just isn't all that much that differentiates punters and kickers.  For instance, the average punting yardage for the 2015 season varied from 47 to 41 yards, or a variance of 6 yards. In comparison, the average passing yards per game ranged from 311 yards/game (Saints) to 175 yards/game (Rams).  Simply put it you could have the worst punter in the NFL and it would only cost you an average of 6 yards a punt (which there are about 2-3 per game on average).  On the other hand, you could have an offense like the Rams who are stuck in the 1970s which is a vastly different team than the Saints or the Packers and be about 50% as productive in the air.  

Given everything above, it's not hard to understand why the incumbent seems to always win.  Can anyone honestly say that Giorgio Tavecchio, Cody Mandell or Peter Mortell this year had any realistic chance of unseating the incumbents?   If Masthay and Mortell are essentially equal (and most punters are essentially equal), the Packers will undoubtedly go with the known quantity and stick with Masthay.  It almost feels like the Packers are basically wasting a roster spot trying to produce competition that in reality is hardly competitve; the Packers would probably be far better served with another running back to push Eddie Lacy or another inside linebacker to add competition for a legitimate starting position.  Even if Masthay did choke during the preseason, Mortell is likely going to be around in free agency as the demand for punters is so low.  In reality, Peter Mortell likely can't win the punting job, only Tim Masthay can lose it and that's not really competition at all. 

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Comments (11)

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staffordsneckfat's picture

August 05, 2016 at 12:33 pm

Valid question you raise here Hobbes but I disagree with you on a few points:

1. I think raw average punt yardage alone is a poor measurable for the success of a punter. I think perhaps more important than raw distance is net distance (which considers hang time for coverage to get downfield) and punts downed inside the 20. Watch Pat McAfee from Indianapolis on Sunday, the guy is great at pinning teams deep and is truly a weapon.

2. I think the idea of only getting fewer live reps in practice is a good audition for the situations punters see in a real game. They are not like a quarterback who gets 30-40 reps per game, generally they have just a few chances to make an impact.

3. Kickers kick differently when the pressure is on. Crosby didn't have a single shank in last year's preseason, but when the game was on the line in the regular season vs Detroit he nearly hit the long snapper in the ass with his attempt. I believe anytime you can simulate a little pressure it is a good thing.

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hobbes's picture

August 05, 2016 at 04:00 pm

Fair points:

1) I'm not entirely sure what punting metric can be considered most enlightening but net yardage is basically has the same variance as punt average; the high in 2015 was 45 yards and the low was 37. I would assume hang time would be even closer given you are talking about a fraction of a second every time.

2) While it is might be closer to an actual game situation, it doesn't help the coaches or front office really make an informed decision. In 2013 (the year after Crosby's collapse), Crosby made 6 field goal attempts during the preseason, Tavecchio got 1. Now call me a skeptic, but trying to tell if Tavecchio is a better kicker than Crosby after 1 live kick is pretty pointless. In terms of punters, Cody Mandell didn't even make it to the preseason to attempt a punt.

3) kickers undoubtedly perform differently when under pressure (just like pretty much everyone else), but I would argue that it's not like there was a huge pressure on either Crosby or Masthay when they had competition. Both incumbents were given more opportunity to succeed (like getting 6 field goal attempts to 1) and you definitely didn't get the vibe from the coaching staff that it was a fair fight; McCarthy talks about competition pushing the incumbents, not overtaking them; compare that to the comments McCarthy has made about inside linebackers.

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dobber's picture

August 05, 2016 at 12:44 pm

"trying to assess a punter by 3 punts is basically foolish, even medical journals typically require a bigger sample size."

As a chemist, I actually LOL'd on that...

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staffordsneckfat's picture

August 05, 2016 at 01:06 pm

Another chemist in the comment section? God Bless America!

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hobbes's picture

August 05, 2016 at 02:53 pm

I facepalm when NEJM publishes case reports.

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Bearmeat's picture

August 05, 2016 at 09:30 pm

Agreed Hobbes. Although, to be fair, only GB under TT seems to operate like this with their own players. TT almost always goes with the known quantity.

Masthay would really have to botch multiple preseason games and Mortell would have to be lights out in order for top brass to make a switch.

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BradHTX's picture

August 06, 2016 at 05:20 am

Which is really how it should be, because better the devil you know than what is essentially an unknown quantity. To make the switch, Mortell should have to be so clearly in a different league than Masthay that it's a no-brainer.

However, Mr. Hobbes, I'd say that your statement that all punters are basically equal because the difference is only a matter of a few yards is based on a false premise. If the range in average is 37-45 yards, then that's a spread of over 20% which is hardly insignificant. A difference of 8 yards in a punt can be pretty impactful.

But more important, I think, is the reason behind the spread from the best to the worst averages. I doubt that there is a difference of 20% in leg strength from the best punters to the worst. In controlled conditions, all NFL starting punters are probably close to the same. I don't have any statistical analysis to back this up, but I'd be willing to guess the main reason for the difference is game situations is a higher incidence of really bad punts by the worst punters than punts that are consistently a few yards shorter. And in a live game situation, two good punts and one shank can have a much more profound impact than three punts that are consistently five yards shorter than those of the best.

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PaulRosik's picture

August 06, 2016 at 09:00 am

When you have an established specialist playing well you don't mess with him by creating a false competition. So Crosby has no other kicker to look over his shoulder at. But when you did not have a great year like Masthay you get camp competition to if nothing else kick you in the pants and remind you that your job is on the line.

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Spock's picture

August 06, 2016 at 09:17 am

Besides, the "ginger wolverine" is one heck of a tackler!

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

August 06, 2016 at 09:52 am

I agree that in GB, these specialists really have no competition. There is no chance IMO of Masthay not being our punter this year, outside of injury.

I can't agree about another premise: punters being essentially the same. If that were so, all NFL punters would be on their rookie contracts, and we would not be paying Mathay $1.366M AAV.

Looking at the link, I see Masthay is 19th highest paid punter, but the 22nd -32nd highest paid punters are all on rookie contracts.

http://overthecap.com/position/punter/

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lucky953's picture

August 07, 2016 at 10:03 pm

Nobody kicks forever. When is it over? It's usually not up to the kicker.

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