The last time these teams met was just back in November. The Packers missed 6 opportunities for interceptions on balls that could have been picked off and then the Viking won with a last second field goal. The Packers held Dalvin Cook to 86 yards with less than 4 yards per carry, but let Kirk Cousins throw for 341 yards with a season-high 3 touchdowns and 128.4 rating.

The Packers offense also had a big day, led by Rodgers who threw for 385 yards and 4 touchdowns en route to a 148.4 rating (all season highs). He even threw 2 touchdowns in the 4th quarter (one to take the lead and another to tie it back up), but the defense immediately allowed return scores both times.

This matchup will probably look difference since the Vikings, who already lost Adam Thielen to season-ending ankle surgery, will now be missing Kirk Cousins.

Beware: that does not make this game an automatic win.

Last year, the Vikings beat the Packers in Green Bay when Cousins only threw 14 passes for 160 yards. Dalvin Cook ran 30 times for 163 and scored 4 touchdowns in that game.

He could do it again. 

WHEN THE VIKINGS HAVE THE BALL

Sean Mannion will start for Kirk Cousins.

A career backup, Mannion hasn't played in a game since 2019. In 13 games of action, he's never thrown a touchdown. He lost his only 2 starts. His career rushing long is 3 yards.

With game time temperatures around zero and a negative wind chill, Sean Mannion (who has played for the warm-weather Rams and the dome-field Vikings) will not take over the game.

But he doesn't have to.

Dalvin Cook is a beast and Alexander Mattison is a very good complementary back.

Cook has a history of dominating the Packers. He had an average game in the first meeting this year, but that was only because the Vikings could pass pretty much at will. Justin Jefferson was a one man passing attack in that game, catching 8 passes for 169 yards and 2 touchdowns, including a go-ahead score with 2:27 left.

Adam Thielen may be out, but Jefferson could blow up even with a sub-par quarterback. The weather conditions will limit deep passing, especially with an inexperienced quarterback.

The Packers should bracket Jefferson. Putting a big defensive back like Kevin King on him, specifically to jam him off the line, then covering him on the back with another defender, could effectively erase him from the game since they should be able to handle the rest of the Vikings receivers one-on-one pretty easily. A single high safety (or even a single low safety) should be all the backside coverage the Packers need tonight.

That would allow the rest of Green Bay's defense to stack tight and target Dalvin Cook.

Rashan Gary and Preston Smith should be on contain assignments on the edge. Many of the big runs the Packers have given up recently game when the edge rusher pursued too high and the offensive tackle just walked them to the back of the pocket and the running back shot out the edge. There is no need for them to press the edge in pass rushing tonight. 

Clark and Slaton on the interior with Campbell and Barnes up close in the alley should be able to limit any rushing attack if the edges are contained.

The Packers defense has shied away from a lot of aggressive schemes and coverages since Cousins torched them in November. They should quit that tonight. There is no excuse to allow play action to work and no reason why the Packers defensive backs should not be able to smother a Vikings receiving corps missing Adam Thielen.

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

The Vikings defense may not be what it used to be, but it can still bring the pressure. They rank 2nd in the league in sacks (only 1 out of 1st place) and are 8th in pressures.

The Vikings pass rush, built on speed for their bird-killing indoor stadium, should be a half step slower in the cold and the "frozen" (ish) tundra should further slow that down even more. That's good news, because the Packers offensive line is mostly 3rd stringers and duct tape. Somehow, they've kept Rodgers upright for the most part.

Rodgers has had a lot to do with that, though. He's taken quicker passes lately to compensate for having less time in the pocket. With MVS back, Rodgers will have 3 of his top 4 receivers.

The Vikings may press Allen Lazard, but they'd open themselves up to losing him on physical routes. They definitely won't press Davante Adams (who can juke guys out of their shoes in weather like this) or MVS (who will blow by everyone if a defender slips on the cold grass). This means Rodgers will have good spacing for quick routes, which should allow the passing game to move easily with fast-paced dink and dunk.

If they want to.

Waiting for a deeper option has been the bane of the Packers offense all year. Aaron Rodgers knows he can throw a great deep ball, so he waits for it. Unfortunately, the other 21 guys on the field don't always put him in a position to make a great deep throw. Rodgers has been better at taking shorter routes lately, but as not totally broken this tendency. If he can stick with a quicker rhythm, the offense should sing tonight.

The Vikings, for as good as they are at running the ball, have such a poor run defense that they're being outrushed by a fair margin. They've allowed almost 2,000 yards rushing on the season and give up 4.7 yards per carry. They are a defense that clearly prioritizes the pass rush over stopping the run.

The Packers offense should just pound the ball with AJ Dillon in the cold all night and then mix things up by throwing Aaron Jones at them. But that's been the story of pretty much every game all season and I don't expect them to finally start doing it in Week 17.

Let's just hope the receivers don't drop the easy ones.

OTHER NOTES

Don't look now, but the Packers special teams have strung together a couple games that didn't make them look like the worst special teams unit in the history of the NFL. Can they make it three in a row? 

Corey Bojorquez has been the lone bright spot for special teams this year. His status is up in the air due to his Covid test. (Update: Bojorquez is expected to play)

I expect this home crowd to be heavily lubricated and bellowing at the top of their lungs to stay warm - this is what football is supposed to be like.

The Cowboys-Cardinals game should wrap up an hour or so before the Packers kickoff - if the Cowboys lose, the Packers can clinch the #1 seed with a win tonight and essentially get two weeks to rest everyone before the divisional round.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The Vikings are fighting for their playoff lives, but their odds are low and they're missing Kirk Cousins and Adam Thielin.

Mike Zimmer undoubtedly has the Vikings geared up for this game like it's their Super Bowl, though (again). They know they aren't winning it all this year, but they would feel really good about sweeping their division rivals and Super Bowl favorites.

I don't expect them to roll over by any means, but without their quarterback, their only chance is to run. They will probably try, but without any credible threat of passing, I don't think they have much of a chance.

If the Packers get an early lead and the cold starts to sink in, I could see the Vikings mentally checking out.

The Packers beat up are still better than the Vikings beat up and the conditions will heavily favor the home team.

Packers 30, Vikings 13