Packers vs. Vikings: 5 Things to Watch and a Prediction

Five things to watch and a prediction for the Packers' Week 12 matchup with the Vikings. 

The Green Bay Packers (7-3) and Minnesota Vikings (4-6) will brave the elements of TCF Bank Stadium for a Week 12 matchup inside the NFC North, marking the first time since 1981 that the two long-time rivals will play outdoors in the state of Minnesota. 

Here’s five things to watch and a prediction:

 

1. Teddy Time

If the Vikings have it their way, Sunday will be the first of many showdowns between rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and Minnesota’s border rival. He’s the new future of the franchise. Through seven games and six starts, Bridgewater has flashed some good (three come-from-behind wins) and some bad (six interceptions, 75.0 passer rating). The rookie won’t drive the football down the field, but he’s athletic inside the pocket and poised in pressure situations. However, his supporting cast has routinely let him down, and he just doesn’t appear advanced enough at this point to take advantage of some of Green Bay’s defensive deficiencies. Bridgewater’s steep learning curve is likely to continue Sunday. 

 

2. Lacy’s Evolution 

Packers running back Eddie Lacy is on pace for only 875 rushing yards, but his effectiveness as an offensive player hasn’t regressed in 2014. In fact, he’s arguably a better back this season for what the Packers want to do on offense. In 2013, Lacy finished with 1,435 total yards on 319 touches (4.5 per touch). This season, he’s on pace for 1,390 on 249 (5.7), plus 11 touchdowns—which would tie his total from 2013. With Aaron Rodgers healthy, the Packers are throwing more and running less, and Lacy has embraced the change in usage. He is averaging 11.9 yards per catch, and his 322 receiving yards ranks fifth among running backs. According to Pro Football Focus, he hasn’t dropped a pass or allowed a quarterback disruption this season. He’s now a complete back. Sunday should present the chance for a Lacy-heavy game, given the Vikings are allowing 4.5 yards per carry in 2014 and the fact that Lacy shredded Minnesota for 132 total yards and two scores in the first meeting. 

 

3. Missing the Dome?

While some in Green Bay may have wished the Metrodome good riddance, Aaron Rodgers was probably not one of them. Over his final four games under the dome, Rodgers completed 75.4 percent of his passes, averaged 9.9 yards per attempt and threw 13 touchdowns against zero interceptions. He averaged 321.5 passing yards per game and had a passer rating of 139.5. Meanwhile, the Packers averaged 35.5 points per game. The rivalry will move outdoors Sunday, but it’s worth wondering how much of a difference that factor will make for Rodgers. He’s thrown 26 touchdowns and just one interception over seven outdoors games in 2014. And his 13-game career numbers against Minnesota include 29 scores and four picks. Rodgers can spin the football in any setting. 

 

4. Attack the Weak Link

The nightmare season for Vikings left tackle Matt Kalil rolls on. He has allowed 11 sacks (most among offensive tackles) and 39 total pressures (second-most) this season, and he’ll likely get a rotating door of pass-rushers coming at him Sunday. Kalil is lacking both confidence and technique, and pass-rushers know it. The Packers will want to continue the Clay Matthews move inside, but don’t be surprised if he receives more cracks at Kalil on the edge. It’s also possible Julius Peppers will see more snaps as the right outside linebacker, especially if Nick Perry is limited. The Packers should throw the book at a player that has been exposed as a weak link for the Vikings week after week. It’s also worth noting that Kalil missed Friday’s practice with a knee issue. 

 

5. Strength vs. Strength?

The Packers offensive line against the Vikings pass rush is the matchup to watch. Over the last two weeks, Rodgers has been under pressure on just 19 of his 66 dropbacks, while taking just one sack and zero quarterback hits. Per PFF, the Packers rank fifth in the NFL in pass-blocking efficiency in 2014. To pull off the upset, the Vikings must bring a dominant pass-rush to the table. Minnesota is tied for third with 30 sacks this season, with 20 of them coming in a recent four-game stretch. Yet the Vikings failed to sack Jay Cutler last Sunday, and he went off for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. Rodgers’ 19 drop backs in the first meeting were mostly stress-free. Everson Griffen, Anthony Barr, Brian Robison and Sharrif Floyd can still bring the heat, and Mike Zimmer is one of the NFL’s best at disguising pressure. Bottom line: if the Packers offensive line plays well Sunday, Green Bay rolls. Big. 

 

Prediction: Packers 38, Vikings 20 (7-3)

The Vikings need a relentless pass rush and a perfect day from a rookie quarterback to pull off the upset. Anything less, and Minnesota is liable to become Green Bay’s next blowout victim. The latter appears much more likely. The gap between the two quarterbacks is just too large. 

 

Zach Kruse contributes to Cheesehead TV. He is also the Lead Writer for the NFC North at Bleacher Report. You can reach him on Twitter @zachkruse2 or by email at [email protected].

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Comments (38)

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Guisado's picture

November 21, 2014 at 08:28 pm

Thanks Zach. You know who misses the Metrodome more than Rodgers? Vikings fans. They don't have a culture of enduring cold games like Packers fans do. As a result, they're eager to sell their tickets or leave as soon as the ass kicking starst. I don't see how the vikings score 20 or how they hold the Pack to 38. I know this is the NFL, but the Pack is rolling, the vikings are mediocre at best, and there's no need to sugar coat it. I see 42-13. Most of that 13 is in garbage time.

Activate Tolzien ! Get him some reps.

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MarkinMadison's picture

November 22, 2014 at 06:47 am

Agreed. The Vikings best hope to score 20 and to hold the Packers under 50 is if the Packers start liberally substituting by the end of the 3rd quarter. I know what the Raiders did on Thursday, but MM has probably already reminded his players about that three times, and the players have reminded each other a dozen more.

Get in, put them down early. Rest Rodgers and the nicked up for a quarter. The Patriots will be a 60 minute game; no doubt about it.

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barutanseijin's picture

November 22, 2014 at 09:32 am

On the other hand, I was able to attend my only packer game because some other packer fan didn't want to go to a cold weather game.

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4thand1's picture

November 21, 2014 at 09:41 pm

Pack only a 8.5 favorites. Last week against a winning quality team they were 9.5. Someone else must like the queens too.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

November 21, 2014 at 11:39 pm

The "rule" is you get 3 points for being the home team.

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Dangerhawk's picture

November 21, 2014 at 10:04 pm

I hope they blitz everyone against Rodgers! Those Lacy screens will make them suffer.

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lucky953's picture

November 21, 2014 at 11:22 pm

Vikings fans are rubbing their rabbits' feet cuz' that's their only hope. "12" is focused, he's on a mission, Julius Peppers wants a ring dammit, and MM is keepin' this team rolling. Get out of the way Queens!

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4thand1's picture

November 22, 2014 at 07:31 am

Never get over confident. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Lions win and Packers lose. I don't see it happening , but I wouldn't be shocked.

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JimTaylor31's picture

November 22, 2014 at 08:09 am

I wouldn't be shocked either. The Chiefs got cocky and got spanked by the Raiders. Bottom line is that the Packers are a good team but not so good that if they don't bring their A or at least A- game every week thay can get whacked. It's called parity and there isn't as much difference as many people think between winning and losing.

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mrtundra's picture

November 22, 2014 at 07:50 am

History tells us that we can throw out the records when these two teams play. The vikings are always up to play the Packers. This game is like their Superbowl. I look for a lot of blitzes headed Rodgers' way and would not be surprised to see a few cheap shots, as in leading with the helmet, etc., coming from the vikings. I live in Western Wisconsin and the Twin Cities media outlets are all saying the vikings are going to lose. I think they are hoping the Packers get overconfident and that maybe an upset can be won. I am hoping the Packers are prepared and I hope the game is a blow out. GO PACKERS!

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barutanseijin's picture

November 22, 2014 at 09:36 am

I think they're saying the Vikings will lose because that's what's going to happen.

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Lphill's picture

November 22, 2014 at 09:30 am

This all comes down to coaching and preparation , this is the Super Bowl for the Vikings , Packers can't be looking ahead to the Pats , I don't think the Pack will put up another 50 , but should win by a comfortable score.

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Bearmeat's picture

November 22, 2014 at 01:09 pm

5 things to watch and Bearmeat's prediction:

1. Watch Teddy Bridgewater not live up to his draft status. He's not ready for primetime. He may never be. And to think - just 6 weeks ago some Viking fans were saying they wouldn't trade Teddy B for ARod straight up. lolz.

2. Watch GJ pout. His OL sucks. His QB isn't very good. And he's just not good enough to deserve the $$ Spielman threw at him. How do you like living in the NFL backwater GJ? Still feel "wanted?" lol.

3. Watch for about 15 ARod deep shots in this game. While Minny's secondary is far better than it was last year, it's still not good. Their CBs aren't good. Their SS isn't good. And their pass rush isn't good enough to hide the deficiency.

4. Watch for Minny to try and establish the run to protect young Teddy B. And this might actually work IF Minny can keep it close for long enough to matter. McKinnon is a find.

5. Watch for ARod, Jordy, Randall, Eddie, Julius, Clay, Sitton, Lang and maybe even Tramon and Sam to be sitting by halfway through this laugher.

Prediction: 65-21 Pack. Yes. I'm serious. Minny is BAD and GB is REAL hot right now.

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Tundraboy's picture

November 22, 2014 at 02:10 pm

Man I would love to see that! Wait, I wont be able to . Working this week so this will be the first game I have missed watching. Hope when I check in on phone during game that is all you predict,

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FITZCORE1252's picture

November 22, 2014 at 04:28 pm

46-17 Pack

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JimTaylor31's picture

November 22, 2014 at 06:23 pm

Huh? Have you been hitting the 420 again?

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aj's picture

November 22, 2014 at 08:50 pm

Why are you so negative towards a team you profess to love? This team is playing like the best in the league right now, and you say they may lose if EVERYTHING goes wrong for them? Why don't you simply appreciate the talent the Packers are putting on the field? I could only imagine your negativity if you were a Jags or Jets fan...

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barutanseijin's picture

November 22, 2014 at 09:06 pm

I dunno, Cow. Packers kick coverage units have been pretty good lately -- with the exception of that TD return in the Bears game. Is that a trend? Maybe, or maybe it was just garbage time play. Lacy ran for 105 against the Vikings the first time around. He also had some important receiving yards. I don't see why he couldn't perform at a similar level this time around.

I'm not betting on a rookie QB behind a mediocre line pulling to pull this one out.

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NewNikeShoes's picture

November 22, 2014 at 11:32 pm

cocaine is a helluva drug kids

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4thand1's picture

November 23, 2014 at 09:02 am

pot makes you paranoid

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PackerAaron's picture

November 22, 2014 at 11:34 pm

(rollseyes)

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Tundraboy's picture

November 22, 2014 at 04:46 pm

Is there any game you do not predict the worst case?

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Sir Cheese 82's picture

November 22, 2014 at 06:26 pm

Just like last week's famed predictions, and the week before that. Don't you ever get tired of looking so foolish?

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Point-Packer's picture

November 22, 2014 at 07:49 pm

NO, no he does not.

Cow - Your 8-8 prediction will look pretty foolish when the Pack improve to 8-3. But then again, that never stopped you before.

This is the last time I will ever acknowledge your existence.

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cheddarhead's picture

November 22, 2014 at 09:38 pm

Last time the score was 42-10 I hope their defense hangs with us again.

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Ibleedgreenmore's picture

November 22, 2014 at 07:01 pm

I love this team, just one win a week and I am good.

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Lphill's picture

November 22, 2014 at 07:36 pm

was waiting to hear from COW, if thats his prediction from his awful Vikings I cant wait to hear his prediction how the Patriots are going to destroy the Pack or I mean how COW hopes the Patriots destroy the Pack, I love his comedy routine .

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PackerAaron's picture

November 22, 2014 at 11:35 pm

(rollseyes)

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zeke's picture

November 23, 2014 at 07:48 am

All defenses struggle against elite QBs. That's what makes them elite. Duh.

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4thand1's picture

November 22, 2014 at 07:40 pm

Game is in the bag.

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cmc13's picture

November 22, 2014 at 08:24 pm

COW knows about posts coming back to haunt oneself.

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Point-Packer's picture

November 22, 2014 at 07:52 pm

Weather initially worried me. No greater equalizer than shitty weather. Quick glance at TC weather for Sunday shows 41, with a chance of rain. Unless its down-pouring, that won't slow down #12 and his weaponry.

Pack 35 - 17.

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Lphill's picture

November 22, 2014 at 08:58 pm

Yes COW your Vikings have some good young players on defense but It comes down to Rodgers vs Bridgewater , that simple , for the Packers to lose to your Vikes they Would have to help by turning the ball over about 5 times and allow Teddy to shred the Packs defense , but I don't see that happening , I not predicting another 50 but at least cover the spread , I know this is your Super Bowl but you should expect another loss..

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Otto's picture

November 22, 2014 at 09:54 pm

I think Mike Zimmer is a good coach. I don't think the Vikings defense has the talent to do what he wants them to do to beat the Packers, though. There are a couple guys in the secondary Rodgers and Co. are going to single out and make look very bad (Munnerlyn for one).
The Viking's offense seems to be a disaster. I think Bridgewater will eventually become a good QB if they develop him. But, that won't happen by tomorrow.
They always seem to steal one on special teams.

I live in the Twin Cities metro and from what I'm hearing this might as well be a neutral site game. They expect it to be up to 50% Packer fans at the stadium. (referred to as "the bank" here)

I would love to see the Packers keep their streak going, but picking a road team to blow out a home team in the NFL is crazy. 33-14 (ST TD & garbage time TD)

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4thand1's picture

November 22, 2014 at 11:05 pm

How many #1 picks do the Packers have playing on their o-line? Man TT is a genius.

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Samson's picture

November 23, 2014 at 10:35 am

TTs a genius because his high draft picks fail ???
Your statement is also a fail. The starters on the d-line are there because Raji, Jones, Worthy, Neal, etc. are somewhere else. --- Wake up.

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Mario Willis's picture

November 23, 2014 at 05:44 am

I honestly think the Raiders game was a blessing for the Packers. James Jones invoked Aaron's name in such a way that I am sure he was paying attention.

"Any Given Sunday" is often used cliche but does not apply in this situation, not with this team on this Sunday.

Packers are sitting starters for WHOLE QUARTERS of football since losing to New Orleans. I think the word is out in the locker room, "win big and early".

R-E-L-A-X

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egbertsouse's picture

November 23, 2014 at 10:40 am

I live in western Wis. Most of my neighbors are MN transplants. When they are hopeful I see purple flags and Bert Farve and Adrian Beaterson jerseys. I see nothing purple today.

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