Packers vs. Vikings: 5 Things to Watch and a Prediction

Five to things to watch and a prediction for Packers-Vikings in Week 5. 

The Green Bay Packers (2-2) finish off a three-game stretch inside the division Thursday night, when the Minnesota Vikings (2-2) make the short trip east for a nationally televised contest at Lambeau Field. 

Here's five things to watch and a prediction:

 

1. Patterson's Presence 

If there's one player that can break the game Minnesota's way, it's probably all-world athlete Cordarrelle Patterson. He's still struggling to get open within the confines of the offense, but few in the game are better in the open field, whether it's on a kickoff return, bubble screen or jet sweep. 

While the Vikings haven't forced the football to Patterson on manufactured plays, all he needs is one opportunity to change the game. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner would be crazy not to run at least one jet sweep with Patterson, given how damaging Percy Harvin was on the play in the opener. The Packers need to be prepared for a variety of packaged looks designed for one of the game's most dangerous players. 

 

2. Tale of Two Histories

The Packers are averaging 33.0 points against the Vikings dating back to 2010, a stretch of eight games. Included in that span are 44- and 45-point explosions in 2013 and 2011, respectively. Why so productive? Simple. Aaron Rodgers has owned the Vikings. Over 12 career games versus Minnesota, Rodgers has completed almost 72 percent of his passes with 26 touchdowns, four interceptions and a passer rating of 117.9. Five times, he's thrown three or more scores with zero interceptions. 

However, Mike Zimmer-led defenses have given him brief glimpses of trouble. Against the Bengals in 2009, Rodgers completed 54 percent of his passes and finished with a 83.4 passer rating in a 31-24 loss. Last season, Zimmer's Bengals intercepted Rodgers twice and sent him to a 64.5 passer rating, his sixth worst finish as a starter. Will Zimmer and his defensive principles help stem the tide? Or is Rodgers just a bad matchup for Minnesota's personnel? Not many have contained Rodgers as well as Zimmer, but he seems to eventually figure out every team/defense/problem he's handed.   

 

3. A Running Problem

After four games, the Packers find themselves ranked last in run defense (32nd, 176.0 per game) and in the bottom five (28th, 73.0) in rushing offense. The wheels fell completely off against the Bears, as Chicago rushed for 235 yards and held the Packers offense to just 55. Both could be season-long problems. What about Thursday? 

The Adrian Peterson-less Vikings enter Week 5 averaging 134.8 rushing yards per game, but that number is inflated by the 241 yards Minnesota rushed for against Atlanta last Sunday. Meanwhile, opponents have rushed for at least 100 yards in three straight games against the Vikings. Is this the week things start to get turned around? The run defense simply lacks the personnel; getting Eddie Lacy and the run game going is more realistic. Maybe he can finally crack 50 yards. 

 

4. Third Down Difficulties

Thursday night will feature the NFL's two worst third-down defenses. The Vikings are allowing conversions on exactly half their third downs, which is tied with the Raiders for 30th overall. The Packers slot in at No. 32. A year after giving up first downs on just 38.9 percent of third downs, the Packers are currently allowing the chains to move on 52.6 percent of their chances to get off the field.

Green Bay can point to its problems on first down as at least part of the reason for their third-down struggles. Opponents are running on first down against the Packers at a 42.9 percent clip, which is the most in the NFL. And why not? Matt Forte and Marshawn Lynch combined to rush 19 times for 117 yards on first down. Overall, Green Bay is giving up over five yards per first-down play. Second-and-5 is a comfy spot to be in as an offense. The Packers simply aren't getting to enough third-and-long situations. 

 

5. Quarterback Conundrum 

The Vikings are in a tough spot quarterback-wise. The decision on who plays is multi-faceted but also very simple. Should Minnesota start Teddy Bridgewater on a hurting ankle, despite the rookie receiving very limited practice time on a short week? Or would it be better to rest Bridgewater and start Christian Ponder, the team's third quarterback?

Once upon a time, Ponder beat the Packers in a must-win game to end 2012. But he was downright terrible during this past preseason, and the Vikings probably want nothing to do with him being on the field now or in the future. The Packers don't sound concerned with who will be under center, choosing instead to prep against Norv Turner's offensive concepts. Either way, the Green Bay defense—which is allowing an opposing passer rating of 78.9, sixth best in the NFL—should feel good about the quarterback matchup. It'll be a hurting rookie on a short week or Ponder. Could be worse.  

 

Prediction: Packers 34, Vikings 20 (2-2)

These Thursday night games are awful for the players (just ask Josh Sitton) and pretty much unpalatable for viewers (average margin of victory over four games in 2014: 28 points). What a joke. Why should this game be any different? Packers roll at home against a rookie quarterback with a bum ankle and minimal prep. Make it 37-17 if Ponder starts.

 

Zach Kruse contributes to Cheesehead TV. He is also the Lead Writer for the NFC North at Bleacher Report. You can reach him on Twitter @zachkruse2 or by email at [email protected].

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Comments (6)

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

October 02, 2014 at 01:40 am

I am looking for Starks to get 8 to 10 carries, more if he is more productive than Lacy. I still think Lacy will return to his rookie form soon.

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Tundraboy's picture

October 02, 2014 at 11:50 am

Hope more and I think Starks softens them up for Lacy in a lot of ways.

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RCPackerFan's picture

October 02, 2014 at 06:52 am

The thing that scares me is the Vikings will find ways to use Patterson like the Seahawks used Harvin against the Packers and they won't have an answer for it. Packers seem to do well against more traditional offenses, but they struggle more with the gadgety type of offenses.

On defense the Packers have to find a way to stop the run. Their CB's are good enough to be able to be in man converage, so they could bring a safety down in the box more.

From what i have been hearing it sounds like Ponder will start. If he does start they will have to find a way to put pressure on him and change up the looks to not allow him to get comfortable.

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Idiot Fan's picture

October 02, 2014 at 08:30 am

I agree. Patterson is the one who scares me most. I would be fine if they squib-kicked all of the kickoffs (all ten of them...:)).

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Franklin V.'s picture

October 02, 2014 at 08:42 am

Hope I'm wrong, but I have a bad feeling about this game...
The Packers are the worst in the league at stopping the run, and the Vikings had more yards on the ground than any other team this week. In contradiction to Greenbay, who haven't established a rushing game yet. Also, it's supposed to rain heavily which should somewhat negate Rodger's ability to pass, and he's struggled with Zimmer's defensive schemes historically. I have to believe Bridgewater's going to play; usually wouldn't go with a rookie QB, but he makes good decision's, he's hard to tackle and he's pretty mobile--something Greenbay's D has struggled with for years. Bottomline, if Lacy and the Defense doesn't step up big-logically have to believe the Packers are going to get shocked tonight.
Honestly, hope when the game's over, I'm completely wrong and have been talking out of my ass.
Go Pack!!

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Doug_In_Sandpoint's picture

October 02, 2014 at 08:45 am

If they bring a safety down into the box, please don't have it be Burnett rushing from the end position. Getting no penetration,getting caught inside, and turning your back to the play is not what we need.

Would it ever be reasonable to play an extra backer in the nickle and use the bigger body in run support? If the corners can play man, why not.

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