Packers vs. Eagles: 5 Things to Watch and a Prediction

Five things to watch and a prediction for the Packers' Week 11 matchup with the Eagles.

Fresh off a 41-point drubbing of the Chicago Bears, the Green Bay Packers (6-3) will now welcome the NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) to Lambeau Field for a late afternoon showdown between two conference heavyweights in Week 11. 

Here’s five things to watch and a prediction:

 

1. Home Cookin’

The Packers are serving it up hot at Lambeau Field in 2014. Green Bay is 4-0 and averaging 41.5 points per game at home this season, with a healthy margin of victory of over 25 points. Aaron Rodgers has thrown 15 touchdowns against zero interceptions for a squint-your-eyes passer rating of 140.1, and the defense has allowed just 16.3 points per game with eight takeaways. The four home wins have come against teams with a combined record of just 12-25-1. But since the Jets jumped out to a 21-3 lead back in the home opener, the Packers have enjoyed a 163-44 run—with in-game leads of 42 (Minnesota), 35 (Carolina) and 48 (Chicago). These are still NFL teams. The Packers have turned home games into the varsity against JV. 

 

2. Rodgers at Lambeau

The almost farcical numbers demand another section on Rodgers at home. Prepare yourself. Since 2010, the Packers are a sparkling 28-2 over regular-season home games when Rodgers starts and finishes the game without injury. Only the Miami Dolphins (in overtime, 2010) and San Francisco 49ers (2012 opener) were able to leave Lambeau Field with a win. Over his last 10 regular-season home games, Rodgers has thrown 26 touchdowns and zero interceptions—for a passer rating of 131.5. You have to go back to early December of 2012 to find his last home pick. You have to go back to October of 2010 to find the last time he threw two interceptions in Green Bay. Since 2011, Rodgers has exactly two home games with a passer rating under 90.0. He is rewriting the definition of consistent home dominance. 

 

3. Testing Change

The Packers haven’t publicly committed to Clay Matthews at inside linebacker, and Matthews has seemed somewhat hesitant about a long-term switch. The element of surprise was at play against Chicago, but the Packers would be looney tunes to not stick with No. 52 in a hybrid role. He’s bigger, faster and more instinctive than any other player the Packers could plug in next to A.J. Hawk. That said, the Eagles could really put pressure on the experiment Sunday. Chip Kelly has had a full week to digest Matthews’ new role, and it’s almost certain the Eagles will attempt to establish tempo through the run game. The Bears were really unable to test Matthews, given the surprise factor and early chaos of the game. The Eagles can and likely will. We should learn a great deal about the true effectiveness of move this week, and how committed the Packers are to playing Matthews inside. 

 

4. Neutralizing the Rush

The Eagles can rush the quarterback out of their 3-4 set. Connor Barwin is second in the NFL with 10.5 sacks, while Trent Cole has 10 quarterback hits and 34 total disruptions. Throw in knifing defensive end Fletcher Cox (23 disruptions), former first-round pick Brandon Graham (29), nickel rusher Vinny Curry (21) and oft-blitzing inside backer Mychal Kendricks (nine), and defensive coordinator Billy Davis has no shortage of options in getting after Rodgers. The Eagles sacked mobile quarterback Cam Newton nine times last week. It would crazy for Davis to get too blitz-heavy against Rodgers in Green Bay, which should leave the onus on the edge rushers to create pressure out of four-man rushes. The Packers will need tackles David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga to handle the onslaught. And don’t sleep on Green Bay’s newly rediscovered screen game, which could help slow the rush. 

 

5. Eye on the Game Breakers

Where would the Eagles be without Darren Sproles and Jeremy Maclin? The Saints all but gave away Sproles, and Maclin signed a modest one-year, $5.5 million deal after missing all of 2013. The two have powered the Eagles in 2014. Sproles is averaging 6.6 yards per carry with four rushing scores, four receptions of 20-plus yards and two punt returns for touchdowns. Maclin has 13 receptions of 20-plus yards, five of 40-plus yards and eight of Philadelphia’s 17 touchdown catches. Meanwhile, electric running back LeSean McCoy is averaging only 3.7 yards per carry and 4.4 yards per reception, with just three plays of more than 20 yards. McCoy can go the distance at any time, but Sproles and Maclin have been the big-play providers for the Eagles this season. The Packers can’t let either get loose. 

 

Prediction: Packers 38, Eagles 28 (6-3)

The Packers simply haven’t played well against the best in the NFC in recent seasons. Mark Sanchez will start at quarterback for Philadelphia, but the Eagles are 7-2 and once again leading the NFC East. If the Packers can’t beat Sanchez at home, why even play in January? Rodgers is just too good at home to let this opportunity slip. 

 

Zach Kruse contributes to Cheesehead TV. He is also the Lead Writer for the NFC North at Bleacher Report. You can reach him on Twitter @zachkruse2 or by email at [email protected].

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Comments (17)

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Bearmeat's picture

November 14, 2014 at 10:25 pm

"The Packers simply haven’t played well against the best in the NFC in recent seasons."

That is the understatement of the year Zach. That, more than anything else, it what makes this game so nervewracking for me as a fan. I think GB's OL controls (or at least somewhat contains) PHI's pass rush - and CM3/A healthy Burnett (somewhat) mitigate the poor run stopping (in)ability of the GB DL - which leaves all the matchups favoring the Packers at home and a (seemingly) easier win.

BUT - it's a fact that since January of 2011, GB has not won a big time game against an NFC opponent with a winning record outside their division. Can they turn the corner this week? It'll tell a us a lot on how the rest of the season will go.

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NashvilleCheesehead's picture

November 16, 2014 at 07:32 am

Agree. Zach's prediction sounds more like wishful thinking than bold prognostication.....

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packsmack's picture

November 16, 2014 at 10:03 am

They beat the Saints and Falcons in September/October 2011. Saints were 13-3, Falcons 10-6.

You can throw out last season because of The Collarbone.

So essentially what you're saying is that 2012 sucked. Got it, and it has no correlation to this season. Although technically the Packers won @ Seattle that year but were still given a loss. It is what it is.

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Tundraboy's picture

November 15, 2014 at 09:35 am

"If the Packers can’t beat Sanchez at home, why even play in January? Rodgers is just too good at home to let this opportunity slip."

Exactly. Huge game and hopefully the moment we have been waiting for. I see a lot of screens to Lacy and Harris.

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TommyG's picture

November 15, 2014 at 05:14 pm

I get what you're saying here, cow, but I feel that the success or failure of this game rides mostly on the defense. While I agree with you that AR is the key to offense, and that he must have a very good game in order to keep us competitive, I think that the D must ensure that the scoring that the offense does actually counts for something. Back in the New Orleans game, up until AR's injury, that the game would come down to whom ever punted first would lose. For a while that game certainly had that look too. I really don't like shoot-outs. I want to see our team get up by 10 points and force Mr. Butt-fumble to beat us. In order for that to happen we need an offense that doesn't make mistakes, and a defense that gets a few more stops than the other side does.

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Lphill's picture

November 15, 2014 at 09:51 am

Keys to a Packers victory , smart plays from MM, protection for Rodgers, solid play on defense and solid plays from special teams, all these are possible . It just comes down to everyone playing smart and doing their job .

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Tundraboy's picture

November 15, 2014 at 10:35 am

That's right. Just like last week.

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TommyG's picture

November 15, 2014 at 05:24 pm

Cow,

Philly's winning record is against teams with a combined record of 23-41. Yes, they did beat the colts by 3 points, but let's not forget how silly the colts looked against Pittsburgh. The only other high quality team they have faced was Arizona; a game which the eagles lost.

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Samson's picture

November 15, 2014 at 07:35 pm

Philly is not as good as their 7-2 record but they are not a scrub team such as the Bears. This game and the upcoming game versus the Pats will tell the tale at playoff time. If you can't defeat someone with a winning record during the season, "one & done" is usually your fate in the playoffs.

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Lphill's picture

November 15, 2014 at 05:32 pm

COW ,the Packers and Eagles have similar stats on defense, on offense we have Rodgers they dont, Bears on paper have an explosive offense and look where that got them, who have the Eagles beaten? oh and the Packers score more then the Eagles. So when the Pack beats the Eagles you will just say oh well the Eagles havent beaten anyone. give it a rest, everyone is on to you.

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Samson's picture

November 15, 2014 at 07:39 pm

Do you ever post without referring to Cow?
Try just football. Obsessive behavior is unhealthy.

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packsmack's picture

November 15, 2014 at 09:18 pm

I don't think the Eagles are very good at all, and think that other than 6 quarters this season, the Packers have been among the best. This should be a laugher at home. Anyone saying otherwise clearly knows very little about football.

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packsmack's picture

November 15, 2014 at 09:24 pm

By the way, this is directed at those predicting an Eagles win, not those predicting a close game.

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TommyG's picture

November 16, 2014 at 10:17 am

That's fair enough.

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4thand1's picture

November 16, 2014 at 08:04 am

The Eagles and their ST will come to an end. They have benefitted from turnovers and The Packers don't turn the ball over. Packers win the turnover battle, pick off Sanchez at least twice today. The secondary is getting better each game. Hayward gets another today. Win the toss , go down and score. Peppers will be a beast today, best FA pick up , Woodson 2.0

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Lphill's picture

November 16, 2014 at 11:36 am

Any game regardless of the team still comes down to executing plays , protect the football , keep the penalties at a minimum and just everyone doing their job . Packers are very capable for all of this . And also I hope someone destroyed MM 's play card from the Saints game.

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MarkinMadison's picture

November 16, 2014 at 01:50 pm

I'm a little worried about the Packers' OL. Bulaga v. speed is a negative. Sitton and Lang banged up is a negative. So I think this game will be closer than I'd like but it would be crazy to pick against the Packers at home this year.

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