Packers vs. Buccaneers: 5 Things to Watch and a Prediction

Five things to watch and a prediction for the Packers' Week 16 matchup with the Buccaneers.

The Green Bay Packers (10-4) go on the road for a final time during the 2014 regular season to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12) in Week 16 at Raymond James Stadium. 

 

1. Rodgers’ Rebound

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has played three games below his ridiculously high standards this season: at Seattle, at Detroit and last Sunday at Buffalo. If his rebound performances from the first two are any indication, the Bucs are in trouble. Rodgers scorched the Jets for 346 yards and three touchdowns after a frustrating season opener, then meticulously picked apart the Bears—to the tune of 302 yards and four touchdowns—one week after the Lions handled his offense. In the three total games following losses this season, Rodgers has completed 67.0 percent of his passes, averaged 9.9 yards per attempt and thrown 13 touchdowns against zero interceptions (138.9 passer rating). The Bucs may feel his wrath Sunday.

 

2. Revisiting McCown 

The Packers will get another shot at quarterback Josh McCown, who led the Bears to 27 points and a win over Green Bay last November. Of course, Rodgers played just one series before exiting with a fractured collarbone. Still, McCown played relatively well—throwing for 272 yards and two touchdowns and leading five scoring drives. He’ll be throwing to Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson on Sunday, two big targets that aren’t far off from Chicago’s duo of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery (both caught touchdowns from McCown vs. Green Bay last season). McCown is having a tough first season in Tampa Bay—completing less than 57 percent of his passes with 12 interceptions—but the Packers know he’s capable. 

 

3. MM’s Advantage

The Packers faced Leslie Frazier—who is now Tampa Bay’s defensive coordinator—seven times while he was head coach of the Minnesota Vikings. It’s safe to say Mike McCarthy has his number. The Packers averaged 33.1 points over those seven games, winning five, losing one and tying another. Rodgers played in six of those games, throwing 15 touchdowns against just one interception. Frazier and head coach Lovie Smith (who lost his final six games to the Packers in Chicago) continue to run an out-dated scheme that is heavily dependent on zone coverage. And not surprisingly, quarterbacks have picked it apart, with 26 touchdown passes over 14 games this season. Not having disruptive interior rusher Gerald McCoy (knee) will likely force Frazier to call more blitzes. Scoring points shouldn’t be an issue this week. 

 

4. David vs. Goliath 

If there’s a game-changer left on Tampa Bay’s defense, it’s linebacker Lavonte David. He has 152 “stops,” or a tackle that Pro Football Focus constitutes as an offensive failure, since the start of the 2013 season. No other 4-3 linebacker has more. His number of game-changing plays have dropped off in 2014, but the seven sacks and five interceptions he produced in 2013 prove his ability to cause havoc. The Packers need to know where No. 54 is on every snap. Expect to hear his name called plenty Sunday. 

 

5. Upset Ingredients

Looking back on games in 2008 and 2009 has little value for 2014, but the two Green Bay losses in Tampa Bay do provide insight for how an upset could happen. In 2008, Rodgers threw three interceptions and the Bucs ran for 178 yards, giving Tampa Bay a decided edge in time of possession. The Bucs also had a defensive touchdown on a fumble return. A year later, Rodgers once again threw three picks, one of which was returned for a score during a 21-point fourth quarter for the Bucs. Tampa Bay was also dominant on special teams. The lessons here: if the Packers protect the football, hang in there against the run and don’t embarrass themselves on special teams, the chances of an upset Sunday drop to somewhere near zero. Crazy things happen all the time in the NFL, but the Bucs probably need a perfect storm to pull off another upset. 

 

Prediction: Packers 41, Buccaneers 20 (9-5) 

The Packers have beat up on the bad teams this season. The Bucs qualify as a bad team. Rodgers might throw four or five touchdowns and the Packers should roll. 

 

Zach Kruse contributes to Cheesehead TV. He is also the Lead Writer for the NFC North at Bleacher Report. You can reach him on Twitter @zachkruse2 or by email at [email protected].

NFL Categories: 
0 points
 

Comments (9)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
4thand1's picture

December 19, 2014 at 09:35 pm

What gets me is the Packers only lose if they beat themselves. After the all around bad performance in Buffalo, hard to see them playing bad football 2 weeks in a row. They beat a much better Miami team in the heat.

0 points
0
0
DrealynWilliams's picture

December 19, 2014 at 11:24 pm

"What gets me is the Packers only lose if they beat themselves"

I thought I was the only one thinking that.

0 points
0
0
pooch's picture

December 20, 2014 at 11:59 am

Really GB...Tampa 2-12. if your elite go big or go home with your tail between your legs.No bullshit this game.Should not even be close.

0 points
0
0
mrtundra's picture

December 21, 2014 at 08:45 am

It seems that every team the Packers play is "up" for beating the Packers. That, with the Packers ability to play down to their opponents level in many games for the past several seasons, makes this game much more difficult than Tampa's record would make one think. I remember a game during the Favre era where the dominant, Superbowl bound Packers lost to a lowly Indianapolis Colts team. It served as a wake up call for the Packers when a wake up call should have been the furthest/farthest thing from the team's mindset. We have to go out and beat Tampa, plain and simple.

0 points
0
0
4thand1's picture

December 21, 2014 at 09:04 am

The Packers are considered "elite" by many in the broadcast world. So every team that plays them doesn't need motivation to get fired up for a game. I remember when the Packers sucked (late 70's 80's), occasionally they would beat a contender and I'd be happy for a week. They didn't need their "A" game to beat Buffalo last week , just a few plays. They need to start fast in Tampa and not let them hang around, I hate that shit.

0 points
0
0
Bearmeat's picture

December 20, 2014 at 03:35 pm

Unfortunately, GB has proven proficient at crapping the bed once or twice a year during MMs tenure. This is what happened at Seattle (which we wouldn't have won anyway, but SHOULD have been close) and at DET, and at NO, and especially at BUF.

This team CAN win the super bowl. It, along with NE, DEN and SEA are the only real contenders. But will it execute (from the coaches on down). That remains to be seen.

However, I do expect them to win the next 2 weeks, have the 2 seed, and be hosting the 3 seed Cowboys in the divisional playoff round.

0 points
0
0
Tundraboy's picture

December 20, 2014 at 05:06 pm

Great points as usual. And man would I like to see that all happen.

0 points
0
0
Tundraboy's picture

December 20, 2014 at 09:37 pm

Go pack

0 points
0
0
wildcat1's picture

December 20, 2014 at 09:56 pm

Hope the A game needed in Buffalo gets packed to Tampa! We do remember monumental upsets at Raymond James and the old sombrero!! Those are ghosts I will not acknowledge Sunday as I cheer them on from the upper deck! Go Pack Go for 50!

0 points
0
0