Packers Periscope: Week 4 vs. San Francisco 49ers

Up periscope against the Packers week 4 opponents, the San Francisco 49ers

The Past

The Packers have already exercised one demon this season by beating the NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks, why not make it 2 for 2 by beating the 49ers?  While recent history would put the Packers/Seahawks rivalry more like the Cowboys/Packers rivalry of the 90s, the battles between the 49ers have been a lot less lopsided.  While the 49ers have won the last 4 meetings against the Packers, each game seemed to get closer and closer with the 49ers barely squeaking by with a last minute field goal to win 20-23 in the 2012 NFC wildcard match.   While the 49ers have managed to hold the upper hand over the last couple years, the 49ers are a completely different team now.

 

The Present

Overall Team Efficiency

Packers

Chiefs

51.0%

-51.4%

Offense

Overall

92.6%

-21.9%

Run

2.5%

8.0%

Pass

74.5%

-43.7%

Defense

Overall

-3.2%

25.3%

Run

16.8%

5.4%

Pass

-18.5%

43.6%

Special Teams

4.9%

-4.1%

Quarterback (DYAR)

476

-169

 

(All statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders, click here for a detailed description of DVOA and DYAR.  And as always defensive DVOA is the inverse of offensive DVOA so negative numbers are better.)  

Technically DVOA at this point is just VOA since Football Outsiders don’t account for opponent strength until the 4th game.

First off this isn’t the same 49ers team that the Packers have faced in recent memory.  In fact the current team has been down right awful in almost every aspect.  They are currently ranked 31st, only ahead of Chicago, in terms of overall DVOA and have the 29th ranked offensive DVOA (with the worst passing efficiency in the league) and 30th ranked defensive DVOA, being equally bad at defending the run and the pass.  The only real positive going for the 49ers is their rushing defense, which luckily for them meshes well with the Packers greatest weakness being their run defense; but even with that advantage, going up against a Packers passing offense that produces nearly double the league average against the 29th best passing defense in the league should lead to a killing on the scoreboard. 

Perhaps the most damming statistic of all is the difference in DYAR between Rodgers and Kaepernick.  While Kaepernick has been brilliant at times, mostly at the expense of the Packers, he’s clearly taken a step back from just a couple years ago.  Maybe its due to the general lack of talent around him or not having Jim Harbaugh to reign him in but in either case Kaepernick was considered one of the rising superstar quarterbacks a couple years ago but right now is among the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. 

 

The Future

Oh how the mighty have fallen.  The San Francisco 49ers might be the textbook case of how quickly a franchise can fall from the peak to the valley (the other case is interestingly the Baltimore Ravens, who beat the 49ers in the Harbowl).  The 49ers fall came three-fold; most importantly the relationship between the front office, head coach Jim Harbaugh and the players became so strained that the 49ers were forced to fire Harbaugh even though they probably knew that they weren’t going to find a more talented replacement.  News during the offseason indicated that the front office and coaching staff frequently clashed and the Harbaugh’s aggressive and condescending coaching style was wearing thin with the players.  

Secondly, criminal troubles finally got in the way as both Ray McDonald and Aldon Smith were both released after their nth brush in with the law.  While the importance of criminal charges is directly inverse with the chance that they remain on the team, Smith ended up dealing with the police 5 times during his career with the 49ers, which is probably 2 or 3 more than most teams would be willing to deal with.  While the negative PR is bad enough as it is, Smith’s legal troubles resulted in a 9 game suspension, which should have lead to his release outright. 

Lastly the 49ers were hit with a stroke of bad luck in the mass exodus of talent, mainly due to some very sudden retirement announcements from Patrick Lewis Willis, Chris Borland and Anthony Davis, but also the retirement of Justin Smith and the loss of Mike Iupati and Frank Gore to free agency left the 49ers starting line up in shambles.  This problem was compounded with three very poor drafts starting with selecting AJ Jenkins in 2012, who the 49ers literally got out 3 games, 1 target and no receptions, which is in super-bust territory.  Their last three drafts have given them little to no promising talent; Carlos Hyde might be their only draft pick in the last 3 years that could potentially turn into an above average starter.

Overall, I think the 49ers really highlight the fact that the NFL stands for “not for long”; just a few years ago everyone thought they were going to be a perennial Super Bowl contender with one of the best defenses in the NFL lead by a dynamic dual-threat quarterback.  If anything, look towards the 49ers and then appreciate the quiet consistency of the Green Bay Packers. 

 

 

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Comments (31)

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Ibleedgreenmore's picture

October 02, 2015 at 12:58 pm

I picked the Packers to win before I read this article. Now I think even more were in good shape to win baby.

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hobbes's picture

October 02, 2015 at 05:46 pm

It's only three games, and the statistics haven't been normalized to opponents, but the 49ers have not been a good team. I don't think there would be press conferences about how Tomsula gave Kaepernick his vote of confidence if they were a good team.

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Evan's picture

October 02, 2015 at 02:12 pm

Looking like no Vernon Davis. Huge loss.

Packers by 2+ touchdowns.

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FITZCORE1252's picture

October 02, 2015 at 02:35 pm

I saw Bowman tweaked a knee last week too. Here's hoping he sits!

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johngalt's picture

October 02, 2015 at 03:43 pm

Curious why you hope he sits? Gotta play and beat the best to be the best. Being scared is no way to compete

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hobbes's picture

October 02, 2015 at 05:47 pm

I'd take any advantage you can get; I'd rather the Packers win the Super Bowl beating bad teams than missing out against good teams.

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Evan's picture

October 02, 2015 at 06:54 pm

Exactly. Just get the win.

Besides, with or without Vernon Davis/Bowman, the 49ers are not "the best."

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porupack's picture

October 03, 2015 at 01:16 am

That sounds like the Patriots over the past 15 years. Not taking away from Brady-Beli, but.....well, yeah, I am. They practically win the division by default every year as their fellow division teams are in constant turmoil, injuries, etc. They usually have 6 games by default, another 4 weak teams by good luck draw, about 2 good would-be quality opponents that turn into an easy win due to key injuries (e.g., Dallas minus Romo this year). Seems every year, they only have about 2 hard fought games that feel like it could go either way and they're in the tournament. But, a year later, no one has an asteriks and considers the injury report....so no one makes apologies for opponents' injuries. Me included. Still, I get no satisfaction on opponent's injury....except a few who deserve.. oh, wait..., there is that little bit of revenge thing in me at times.

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croatpackfan's picture

October 03, 2015 at 04:29 am

Well, I think lot of Packers fans looks for "revenge"... Beating this pathetic team would like similar to beat kid after his father , to whom you want to revenge, is dead... Classless! I hope Packers will not underestimate the SF and we win over them comfortably, also I hope Packers will not suffer additional, any player, injury... I think we will be at 4-0... But I think you can talk about legacy just then when you beat the rest best at the full strength. If not, there will be always doubts...

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marpag1's picture

October 03, 2015 at 04:53 am

Maybe Vernon Davis gets his act together and plays well in 2015, but he was dog crap last year.

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Tundraboy's picture

October 02, 2015 at 02:31 pm

Looking forward to a beat down. Beginning with an even better performance by the D, and AR having a game for the ages. That would be my perfect 4-0 start! Anyone know if it is a national broadcast?

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EdsLaces's picture

October 02, 2015 at 02:59 pm

NFL game of the week man! 430pm for me on east coast.

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Tundraboy's picture

October 02, 2015 at 03:19 pm

Thanks. Was afraid it might be Denver /Minn

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Ibleedgreenmore's picture

October 02, 2015 at 02:59 pm

I am out of the area but after years of not being able to watch it I found a way to watch on line. I am never going to miss another Packer game ever and I am loving it.

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Tundraboy's picture

October 02, 2015 at 03:33 pm

Same here, I use xxxxxxxxx can't post illegal streams here, sorry... xxxxxxxxxx
What stream site are you using?

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Ibleedgreenmore's picture

October 02, 2015 at 03:33 pm

Would love to share but might be against site rules. I just put in a search I have 10 sites to choose from.

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JerseyAl's picture

October 02, 2015 at 04:53 pm

it is against site rules.

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Tundraboy's picture

October 02, 2015 at 04:54 pm

Understood.

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Tundraboy's picture

October 02, 2015 at 04:55 pm

Understood.

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John Curwen's picture

October 02, 2015 at 04:26 pm

Late game so not "national", but it will be shown in some markets. Thought I was going to get it, but looks like Broncos v Vikings is going to be shown. Garbage. Check 506 sports for a map of what games are shown in your area.

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Tundraboy's picture

October 02, 2015 at 05:11 pm

Thanks. Great resource.

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hobbes's picture

October 02, 2015 at 05:48 pm

This only highlights how bad everyone thought the Bears were going to be; The Seahawks was the Sunday night game and the Chiefs was the Monday night game. Only the Bears-Packers game was scheduled for the morning/afternoon slot so far.

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EdsLaces's picture

October 02, 2015 at 03:00 pm

I would be so happy to see a young guy like Randall or Rollins to make a big play. It'd be great for the young guys' confidence.

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Dan Stodola's picture

October 02, 2015 at 04:07 pm

" I think the 49ers really highlight the fact that the NFL stands for “not for long”"

While the NFL certainly is Not For Long. This is also a testament to Thompson and McCarthy emphasizing the importance of bringing in quality individuals, not just players. You can't build a team around players who get in trouble. You just can't count on them.

BTW you missed the most important player retirement, Patrick Willis. Com'on Man. Or is that supposed to be Patrick Lewis and you don't know his name? Either way a bad mistake.

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WKUPackFan's picture

October 02, 2015 at 04:54 pm

Like I said on another thread, it was just a couple of years ago when Cow was telling us that Kap was better than AR, that Harbaugh would outlast MM, and the 49ers front office was so much smarter than TT. Time flies quickly.

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Dan Stodola's picture

October 02, 2015 at 06:06 pm

Something about how Kaperdork was revolutionizing the QB position wasn't it? I remember.

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hobbes's picture

October 02, 2015 at 05:50 pm

Whoops my mistake, I got the two mixed up (Patrick Lewis was an UDRFA center for the Packers a couple of years ago)

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lucky953's picture

October 02, 2015 at 08:58 pm

Revenge, long time coming, is ever so sweeeet. Yes, this feels like exorcising evil spirits. Aaron Rodgers is on a mission. The man will take this team to another Super Bowl and ensure his place among the greatest QBs to ever play the game.

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4thand1's picture

October 02, 2015 at 09:57 pm

Fast start. After Sunday,
Packers 4-0
Vikings 2-2
Bears 0-4
Lions 0-4
Two games up with 3/4 of a season to go.

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Otto's picture

October 03, 2015 at 12:33 am

Don't count 'em before their hatched.

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jh9's picture

October 03, 2015 at 06:12 am

With Guion coming back this week, I'm liking the way the Packers defense is coming together. Raji has been the key. We knew Daniels was going to be one tough s.o.b. this year, but Raji playing at the level he's playing at has been awesome. With Guion, I expect this DL to now have the ability to control the LOS.

With our young secondary developing by the week, the only question I have about our defense is still the ILB position. Matthews has been terrific playing both ILB and OLB and Palmer has shown good chase ability. But I still need to see some more run-stopping plays initiated by the ILB to truly solidify this defense. Maybe Palmer or Joe Thomas will provide that and that's what I'll be looking for when we play the 49ers this Sunday.

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