Packers Periscope: Week 17 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Up Periscope for the Packers week 17 opponents, the Minnesota Vikings. Who wants to win the NFC North?
By hobbes
The Past
It wasn't pretty but the Packers managed to win on defense, which should be the bannerhead for the 2015 season. Aaron Rodgers passed for 212 yards and 2 TDs but suffered both inaccurate throws and bobbled passes as he converted only 16 of 34 passes. Teddy Bridgewater produced largely similar numbers, going 296 yards and a touchdown in 25 completions but was sacked an astonishing 6 times and was hurried off his spot for the entire game. The Packers also managed to win on the ground, with Eddie Lacy recording a rare 100 yard outing, easily beating Adrian Peterson, who only got the rock 13 times for 45 yards but did manage a touchdown. James Jones and Kyle Rudoplh both ended the game with 100+ yard outings on 6 receptions and both scored a touchdown as well. The main story of the game was the defense, who managed to dominate the Vikings offense by both containing Peterson and pressuring Bridgewater, sometimes seemingly at the same time; while Datone Jones has largely been a non-factor after being selected in the 1st round of the 2013 draft, in a hybrid defensive end/outside linebacker role like Mike Neal, Jones recorded his second career multi-sack game with 2.0
The Present
|
Overall Team Efficiency |
Packers |
Vikings |
|
|
10.0% |
6.3% |
||
|
Offense |
Overall |
3.2% |
1.4% |
|
Run |
-5.3% |
-0.3% |
|
|
Pass |
15.8% |
10.2% |
|
|
Defense |
Overall |
-6.4% |
-0.9% |
|
Run |
-10.0% |
-7.5% |
|
|
Pass |
-3.6% |
4.5% |
|
|
Special Teams |
0.4% |
4.0% |
|
|
Quarterback (DYAR) |
480 |
285 |
|
(All statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders, click here for a detailed description of DVOA and DYAR. And as always defensive DVOA is the inverse of offensive DVOA so negative numbers are better.)
The Packers took a giant hit in all statistics after a brutal loss to the Cardinals; while Football Outsiders does account for strength of opponent and the Packers were the underdogs for gamblers, the Packers still should not have been beaten as badly as they were and their statistics suffered as a result. Luckily, with the season coming to an end, the other 14 games factor in and the Packers only dropped one rank to 10th overall; it's a little funny to think that even the most optimistic Packers fan has to admit this has been a down year and the Packers are still technically a top 10 team. If nothing else screams how lucky Packers fans have been over the years this should do it.
While the Packers were soundly beaten by the Cardinals and the Vikings coasted to an easy win against the Giants last week, in actuality the Packers are still the statistically superior team; the Vikings don't hold an edge on the Packers in any regard other than running the ball (which is mitigated by the Vikings below average passing game) and special teams, which is largely a non-factor. Perhaps even more surprising is that while the Vikings defense has been lauded for being on of the best in the league, the Packers defense is categorically superior. The Packers defense has been better at stopping the run and competely dominates the Vikings when it comes to stopping the run.
The Future
Winner takes the NFC North.
Comments (28)
Bearmeat
January 01, 2016 at 12:26 pm
Nice Thomas. Thanks.
This just underscores how even in a down year, GB is just a better run franchise than Minny.
Minny is better at RB, TE and pass rushing/underneath pass coverage. And kick returns. That's about it.
Assuming Shields, Bulaga and Bakh play, I expect a win by more than 1 possession featuring a balanced offensive attack and a stifling D.
GB 27- Heidi's 17.
5x in a row NFCN Champs and bring on the Rainy City Bi+€# Pigeons. I don't expect to win it all but let's see what comes.
dobber
January 01, 2016 at 02:41 pm
After how the Seahawks got handled by the Rams at home and knowing that Lynch likely won't play -- and if he does, he won't be nearly 100% -- for several weeks, they don't scare me as much as they did a couple weeks ago when Rawls was still running.
One week at a time, though. ;)
Bearmeat
January 01, 2016 at 05:55 pm
Exactly. This is not a team that can blow anyone out with the limitations at WR. But it is a team that is capable of playing a complete game. I'm not holding my breath for a championship this year, but it is possible. And beating the Heidis IS likely. :)
porupack
January 01, 2016 at 12:25 pm
Thanks Hobbes. It sure doesn't feel like a win for GB, but perhaps its not as bad as it seems. Thanks for the data for optimism.
On another unrelated point: just posting a cheer for Adam still in our thoughts.
dobber
January 01, 2016 at 02:41 pm
Go Adam!
Bearmeat
January 01, 2016 at 05:55 pm
What kind of a tool downvotes this???
jeremyjjbrown
January 01, 2016 at 10:52 pm
Looks like came to some kind of reality took it off...
dobber
January 02, 2016 at 10:56 am
Luckily I don't make judgements of my own self worth based on my numbers of thumbs up or thumbs down! :)
ray nichkee
January 01, 2016 at 12:38 pm
I hope our OL is healthy enough to play all the starters. I will get that gut punch feeling if i have to see Barclay out there.
FrozenTundra
January 01, 2016 at 02:26 pm
Probably not as bad gut punched as A Rod.
Tundraboy
January 01, 2016 at 12:49 pm
As bad as we looked last week and as it looks doubtful we will stop Peterson two games in a row, I have a feeling we will surprise, on national TV no less. But who the hell knows what MM will do or try to do this week. That's what I am most concerned with. Hope he wakes up this week.
Happy New Year all!
dobber
January 01, 2016 at 02:54 pm
The only starter on the OL not practicing this week is Bakhtiari, and that's a big problem. But keep in mind that Minni's DL is beat up, too (Floyd, Joseph and Griffen are all nursing injuries). Not to mention AP is also beat up (even though he didn't look that way against a Giants team that looked even flatter than the Packers did).
Packers will need to impose their will in the run-game this week to take the heat off ARod, because you know the Vikes will be trying to make the Packers one-dimensional in the passing game to take advantage of the beat up OL. My guess is we'll see a lot of designed roll-outs and the Packers will try to move to pocket to help Barclay (if he's still on the left side).
Packers can win this one if they contain AP, and I think they do: 31-17.
Charlu19
January 01, 2016 at 05:11 pm
Pack can't/won't lose all their divisional home games.
Tundraboy
January 02, 2016 at 04:04 pm
No they just can't. Would be what, first time since 68.? That is not a year to be reminded of. Go Pack Go.
Bearmeat
January 01, 2016 at 08:59 pm
Man. Reading around the interwebs... The Queens fans sure are cocky considering GB gobsmacked them just a few weeks ago and since they're 1-10 against Rodgers as a starting QB.
I expect GB to keep a lid on AP (under 100 yards and 1TD) and shut down the Vikings WRs and knock the crap out of Teddy small hands.
On offense, the Vikings are missing their run stuffer. LOTS of Phat Ed out of the I formation is called for with some play action shots sprinkled in.
At the end of the day, Green Bay is just a better football organization - and it will stay that way as long as TT/MM/AR are around.
Tundraboy
January 02, 2016 at 12:42 pm
Nothing to dislike here.
ray nichkee
January 02, 2016 at 02:06 pm
There is nothing to dislike if you are a packer fan...
WKUPackFan
January 02, 2016 at 05:30 am
Hypothethical: Would the Packers and Vikings be wise to treat this as an exhibition game? Home field is not a great playoff advantage these days. The main goal for this game is no injuries.
I'm not advocating this, but logic indicates it is viable option.
Bearmeat
January 02, 2016 at 07:20 am
No. You win the division.
Thegreatreynoldo
January 02, 2016 at 08:18 pm
Yes, GB does whatever increases the odds of winning playoff games/super bowl.
dobber
January 03, 2016 at 09:39 am
What kind of message does it send to your team or fans if you're going out there and not trying to win? No matter how you try to hide it, the players will know. How does that impact next week?
Just...win.......baby.
ktownpackfan
January 02, 2016 at 10:03 am
I like all the insightful, well-thought comments. It helps my optimism. But I am curious - who the Hell is down - voting everything & WHY??
ray nichkee
January 02, 2016 at 11:52 am
There are a few haters on here if you dont agree with them one time they think they have to hand dislikes out like breathmints. I understand some of my comments getting dislikes but i see it is happening to just about everyone now. Im pretty sure stodola is one of them because ever since i refuse to respond to his rhetoric i always have at least two now. There are trolls on this site that want to bring it down. I just ignore most of it. Al cow da will not succeed!
It is getting bad when you can post a comment completely non offensive to anybody and get a dislike.
Anybody disliking a comment positively about adam chech's situation deserves to get permanently deported from this site.
Tundraboy
January 02, 2016 at 12:43 pm
You can post Go Pack Go and get a dislike these days.
ray nichkee
January 02, 2016 at 03:19 pm
Google internet troll. The first thing that came up was wikipedia:
A person who sows discord on the internet by starting arguments or upsetting people, by posting inflammatory, extraneous, or off the topic messages in an online community...
There is one idiot on here who wants to argue with everybody and always thinks he is right and the members of al cow da who are infiltrating this website for thir own personal pleasure.
Trumps, you have your own approach and online persona but in no way is sticking up for the greatest football franchise ever to be confused with being a troll. I like facts and not fairy tales. This may be a dissapointing season but in no way will it be shamefull. Well maby a few plays last week and the denenver game.
ray nichkee
January 02, 2016 at 09:34 pm
Four dislikes for telling thr truth? Geezus!
Tundraboy
January 02, 2016 at 04:05 pm
Go Pack Go
4thand10
January 02, 2016 at 05:08 pm
Go Pack Go!!
Get the run game going, get some turn overs on defense, maybe a little more special teams trickery and the Pack can do this!! Get some good field position from Janis returns. I'd say the Vikings have just as much to think (worry)about. I like our odds. Play to Win!!