The Past

While most Packers fans will probably recall the NFC wildcard race in 2009 that ended in Aaron Rodgers fumbling the ball after getting his head turned sideways on an uncalled facemask penalty, the last game the Packers played against the Cardinals was actually in 2012 and was one of Aaron Rodgers better games.  Rodgers threw for an economical 218 yards, but added 4 touchdowns to only 1 interception, while John Skelton surpassed Rodgers with 306 yards but only got 1 touchdown to 1 interception.  Surprising for 2012 the rushing game also chipped in with 176 yards on the ground, though Rodgers contributed 33 yards on scrambles.  On defense, Erik Walden inexplicably managed to nab an interception while Mike’s Neal and Daniels each were able to record a sack.  

The Present

(All statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders, click here for a detailed description of DVOA and DYAR.  And as always defensive DVOA is the inverse of offensive DVOA so negative numbers are better.)  

The Packers probably haven’t faced a statistically tougher opponent all year.  While the Seahawks and Broncos were definitely teams that put good players onto the field against the Packers, both had serious flaws at the time not to mention that the Packers were statistically better in the early part of the season. 

Pretty much in every regard the Cardinals are at best comparable to the Packers and at worst blow them out of the water.  Both defenses are rather similar in reality; since the passing game is such an integral part of the NFL at the expense of the rushing game, both Cardinals and Packers have top 10 passing defenses; what really separates the two is the Cardinals dominant run defense but again that’s likely to be less important than being able to defend the pass.   On offense both teams are good at passing the ball while being poor at running it, with the Cardinals being more extreme of the two.  Perhaps the biggest difference is surprisingly in QB DYAR, where Rodgers has less than half the DYAR as Carson Palmer.  While Rodgers is undoubtedly having a down year while Palmer is likely having a career year that he’ll never be able to recreate at 35, this is probably the first time since 2008 that Rodgers has gone up against such a statistically superior quarterback.     

The Future

The 2015 Arizona Cardinals are an interesting team.  On one hand, they have been dominant all year according to football outsiders, especially in the early part of the season where they lead in both offense and defense by a staggering amount.  On the other hand, they’ve been quite inconsistent, sometimes winning by large margins and sometimes just squeaking by.   Part of their success is likely due to following the Packers offensive philosophy of a west coast offense featuring deeper passes coupled with a strong defense.  However, a deep pass offense will naturally lead to more variation in production, which might cause some of the ups and downs the Cardinals have seen.

In terms of personnel, the Cardinals have done a good job of securing their top-flight talent for the next couple of years plus adding bigger name free agents like Carson Palmer and Mike Iupati.  In the next couple of years Tyrann Mathieu is likely the next player to get a significant amount of cash, which might come at the expense of Larry Fitzgerald, who has one of the most ridiculous contracts outside of Calvin Johnson. 

While the Cardinals will likely be able to keep their salary cap low by signing a few choice top tier free agents and fielding the rest of the team with lower cost players, the big question for the Cardinals in the next couple years is how to replace quarterback Carson Palmer.  Palmer, who is 35, will likely be entering the steep decline phase of his career and every season will add to that likelihood.  At the moment, the Cardinals have Drew Stanton and Matt Barkley on deck and frankly neither is any more than a 3^rd stringer at this point.  The Cardinals have likely also locked up 1^st seed in the NFC so it’s highly unlikely barring a trade that they will be able to secure a top quarterback in the draft this year either.