Packers Draft: Temper Your Expectations
By jasonperone
The 2017 draft is in the books and the Green Bay Packers added 10 players. That's 10 potential opportunities to strengthen their team and/or address a need. Key phrase is "potential opportunities" and that should prevail until we get into the 2017 regular season.
Every year, there is a barrage of coverage leading up to the draft. Players are analyzed, compared to one another, compared to current pros and ranked. Then comes the actual draft and teams blow up all of that analysis with a few "shocker" picks. The reactions to the picks themselves range from "what was (insert general manager name) thinking?" to "great pick, he's the next (insert future hall of fame current player)".
And those reactions aren't just from fans. They extend to many analysts who are paid to know what they're talking about. They spend time analyzing video, interviewing players, their former coaches, their families, you name it. Anything that will give them an insight that we haven't already heard. It happens every year and every year, players both exceed and flame out on what is expected of them.
When will we learn?
None of these players have even practiced in pads, let alone made the team and played in a game. That's not to say that Kevin King may not make the roster, but beyond the fifth round, nothing is guaranteed. Some will argue that Packers general manager Ted Thompson loves his draft picks a.k.a. his own guys too much to let them go right away. Many are hopeful that this is another year where the personnel team has found another gem in the late rounds or in undrafted free agency.
We all hope that's the case and there's nothing wrong with being optimistic. But be prepared for a letdown. That's not because I think any of these players are already likely to fail. It's because we've seen it happen year after year and all across the league.
The spectrum is wide with examples of Packers draft picks who have overachieved and under whelmed. Sometimes it's a function of where they're chosen and why.
In 2007, the Packers selected Justin Harrell in round one. He did absolutely nothing in a Packers uniform besides sit in the training room, stand on the sidelines and grab himself a Super Bowl ring before leaving the game with a whimper. The choice at the time seemed odd and afterwards it was reported that several of the players Green Bay wanted were taken and Thompson may have made a hasty choice in a pinch.
Just one year later, Green Bay traded out of the first round and grabbed receiver Jordy Nelson early in the second. Given what Nelson has become, he's been one of the most valuable picks Thompson has made as Packers GM. Nelson would surely have been a first round selection in a 2008 re-draft.
Sometimes, the pick is just right. Clay Matthews was selected in round one in 2009 after the Packers traded back in to get him. Matthews, over the course of his entire career, has proven that move to be a good one. Nick Perry took five years to prove he was a worthy project to move from defensive lineman to linebacker. Better late than never.
Other times, bad luck strikes. 2011 first-rounder Derek Sherrod suffered a brutal leg injury later in his rookie season and wasn't able to turn into the type of player he might have been otherwise.
So many things can happen between now and late July when training camp opens. Yet our TV's and news feeds are overloaded with "draft winners and losers". I'll give those writers and analysts one bit of credit: they're not afraid to be wrong. Often times, they are and by a wide margin.
It's OK to be excited about a prospect. A lot of work goes into projecting a player's value and capabilities as they translate to the pro game and that work is worth reading. My hat is off to those who spend all year from the day after the draft to the next draft.
Just take their work with a grain of salt. The real answers lie on the field after the opening bell rings.
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Jason is a freelance writer on staff since 2012 and also co-hosts Cheesehead TV Live, Pulse of the Pack and Pack A Day podcasts. You can follow him on Twitter here
Comments (31)
TKWorldWide
May 01, 2017 at 07:14 am
Wise words indeed. Be patient!
Who will be this year's Terrell Davis, Tom Brady, Richard Sherman, Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, etc, etc, etc.?
Sit back and enjoy the show.
Oh, and while you're at it, stay away from the "worry Chair".
RCPackerFan
May 01, 2017 at 07:22 am
With the draft there always has to be hesitation when talking about these players coming to the NFL. That has to be expected. And when talking about how great or how bad a player will be, the truth is we really don't know how each player will perform, or how injuries impact them.
This all being said, I really like the group of prospects they are bringing in this year. From what I have seen of them, heard about them, read about them I really think they got a great group of players.
I like where they drafted these players also. Trading back from a 1st round to 2nd round and gaining the 4th round pick was a great move. Basically they traded Watt for King and Biegel.
Most of these players will be complimentary types of players.
Kevin King will likely be asked to play right away, or at the very least will compete to play and should be in the Dime defense at least. Josh Jones should have a role in the defense.
Adams will likely be a rotational player on the DL, Biegel the same at OLB. Jamaal Williams will most likely be a complimentary player to Ty Montgomery. Jones and Mays could also have roles as the season goes on.
Amichia will hopefully capture a backup Guard spot.
Yancey and Dupre are guys that will at the very least put a lot of pressure on Janis and Davis.
To start the season I would say there will likely be 1 true starter (King). By the end of the season, there could be 3-4 starters, or very significant role players (mostly likely King, Jones, Adams or Biegel, Williams).
I am definitely excited about this draft class. And I am definitely looking forward to Training Camp/Preseason to see how these guys play in the Packers Uniform.
jeremyjjbrown
May 01, 2017 at 08:17 am
I expect King, Jones, Adams, Biegel and probably Williams to see the field early this season. I'm guessing Williams or one of the other rookies takes Michael's/Starks role from last year.
LayingTheLawe
May 01, 2017 at 02:16 pm
Good comment overall and I look forward to seeing who looks good in camp as well.
But I disagree that they traded Watt for King and Biegel. I think King was the pick all along and what TT did was get the player he wanted and Biegel for free.
RCPackerFan
May 01, 2017 at 02:28 pm
yeah, i was mostly speaking from a fans perspective. Most fans wanted Watt (me included). Well we essentially trade Watt for King and Biegel...
I heard today that the Packers really weren't wanting to draft Watt. That they narrowed it down between King and Dalvin Cook.
HankScorpio
May 01, 2017 at 04:38 pm
There will definitely be the comparison by fans of Watt to King/Biegel, particularly due to the Badger angle in there. Rueben Foster might be the guy that the Packers really let slip away by sliding back. I doubt they were going to draft Njoku or Ramczyk.
Or maybe King really was their guy at 29 and they got a free player.
Either way, turning the bonus pick into Biegel sure seems like the Packers worked the process well. They got a LB that plays with his mullet on fire as compensation for passing on two other LBs they might have taken instead of the CB they did take.
RCPackerFan
May 02, 2017 at 06:58 am
I wonder if they removed Foster off their list. I think Foster as a player is great on the field.
yeah definitely the comparisons will be made. And honestly 5 years down the road this could have been a huge hit or huge miss. We will see...
In the moment I would say getting 2 players for 1 is the smart decision.
I have a feeling from what I have heard King was their guy. I heard the decision for them came down to King and Dalvin Cook. So if they moved down 4 spots got King and picked up Biegel also, thats just a huge bonus.
I think Biegel will be a really good fit in Green Bay. He is a high energy guy, and plays with really good speed.
cheesehead1
May 02, 2017 at 10:17 am
As I live 2.5 hrs from Seattle, I was listening to their sports station KJR950. A Washington Husky defensive coach raved about King and said the Packers are getting are really good player. He was a little surprised the Seahawks didn't make a move on him.
dobber
May 01, 2017 at 07:23 am
It's easy for us to look at this draft and say, "this team is better than it was going into 2016." Maybe in terms of depth, but the team going into 2016 had questions on the offensive side of the ball after a lackluster 2015 (was #12 on the decline? Can Nelson bounce back from his injury? How many Big-Ass Burger Challenges did Eddie Lacy win in Madison over the summer?). The defense was the unit that kept the Packers relevant for a big piece of 2015...and where did they end up last year?
How often do SB caliber teams rely on rookie draft picks to play leading roles in order to be successful? How often are rookies up to playing at a high level right off the bat? Realistically, this team was really 95% in place in terms of who was going to log meaningful snaps in 2017 before the first pick was taken on Thursday. I wouldn't be surprised if King, Jones, Williams, or Biegel play significant snaps in relief roles or specialty packages, but how the Packers fare in 2017 is going to primarily be a function of the returnees and FA acquisitions, not the draft picks.
Turophile
May 01, 2017 at 08:05 am
My expectations are not for this draft.
I'm looking at other young players to make a difference with a step[ up in their level of play. Ryan, Martinez, Spriggs, Clark, Lowry, Fackrell, Randall, Rollins, Montgomery, Hundley. Some of them will not step up as we would like, others will.
Some of the above (Ryan, Montgomery) have already made jumps, players like Spriggs don't need much more than added strength, while others (Martinez, Randall, Rollins, Hundley) hopefully look good, now they are healthy.
Add to them at least one player from this year who looks good straight away, and you (hopefully) have enough to cover the losses of last year, and if lucky, a little more. While the overall talent level is key, it is probable the biggest difference maker will prove to be how healthy the Packers can stay, through 2017.
dobber
May 01, 2017 at 08:28 am
I'm uneasy about the depth on the edge. More and more I find myself wondering why there was only one pick there. Philosophically, we'd been saying that you can fix the pass defense by improving coverage, but you've got to have a pass rush. You can say the juxtaposition of those is true (pass rush v. coverage).
It feels like there's a lot of faith in the emergence of Fackrell and Elliott (maybe they're just saying...can't fix everything. Let's give 'em a shot!)...I would say that those two guys hold a significant part of the improvement on defense in their hands. Biegel will likely contribute some...maybe they really like Gilbert from the PS. But it just feels like a thin group.
CJBauckham
May 01, 2017 at 11:33 am
My takeaway was that they must feel comfortable expanding fackrell's role and giving elliott his shot
If Clay and Nick can stay healtheir then last year (big if, I know), then Fackrell/Elliot/Biegel should be a decent rotation of backups
Of course, this could also quickly become last year's debacle at the rb position. Fingers crossed for some luck with injuries this year
LayingTheLawe
May 01, 2017 at 02:23 pm
I agree with the other comment that they must like Fackrell, Elliott, Lowry, Perry and Matthews as a group of edge rushers enough to think that adding Biegel was all the move needed.
The key to the defense still relies on King and House adding in well, and for Randall and Rollins being to cover someone.
Finwiz
May 01, 2017 at 12:35 pm
You could bring the health factor into the discussion every season. This one will be no different. That's no big revelation.
Most of the players you've listed have topped out of potential, and we've seen what they're capable of, with a few exceptions. (Clark, Martinez)
Razer
May 01, 2017 at 08:56 am
I have a new appreciation of how difficult the draft process really is. We had so few high picks and the space between picks was considerable. I don't know how many times I watched a guy taken before us that would have been perfect. All of a sudden your options get sent in another direction. It is so fluid and you really need to accept what the board will give you.
I think that Ted did a good job, particularly since he picked from the bottom of the pile. The trade out of the 1st round was smart and brought great value.
Glad that I am not a Bears or Bills fan. The Bears danced a stupid dance and the Bills flushed their GM and whole personnel departments. What does that say to the guys that got drafted to Buffalo.
Lphill
May 01, 2017 at 09:35 am
Yes we cannot expect to have 5 rookies or so make an impact but if Ryan and Martinez stay healthy and Randall and House solidify the secondary that will help transition King into the mix and he could be the missing link , but I believe M Adams is for real and will bring pressure from the D line, these subtle improvements can make a big difference , we don't need the number 1 defense we need a top 10 with our offense watch out . I think Clay is the X factor , stay healthy and move him around is the key to success .
Bert
May 01, 2017 at 09:50 am
I gave Ted a thumbs up on this draft but I also know it's a numbers game. Based on history there will probably about three of these guys still on the roster and starting about 4 years from now. Injuries will claim a couple and the rest will probably be cut within a couple years. Hopefully at least one will be a true impact player. I see a good base for improvement in 2018 and beyond but not much contribution in 2017. To that end, our offense will be awesome in 2017 and our defense will probably suck.
4zone
May 01, 2017 at 10:14 am
Agree on the offense but the D should be better. How much better is the question. I expect our O w I all hold the ball more this year giving the D notie rest but may force teams into heavy passing situations and put more strain on that particular aspect.
Bert
May 01, 2017 at 11:02 am
I wish I could be more optimistic about the defense. I just see the same players playing the same scheme. Injuries WILL happen and we are pretty thin on quality players on D.
4zone
May 01, 2017 at 10:10 am
Ted's done his job this off season. Now its up to the players and coaches.
Handsback
May 01, 2017 at 10:19 am
I have a friend who's a Raven fan, because he had a brother drafted by them, and he's always passing along information. He was super excited about Green Bay's selection of Mays. He's no expert, but he essentially pointed out a couple reasons that Green Bay got such a high draft haul.
Green Bay got a very good pass rusher for free (with TT trade down). King may not start right away, but won't be far off when the seson starts. The R&R twins (my name for them not his) were hurt and another full off-season of work and health they would be starters again. His stress to me was that Capers uses so many sub-packages, that it's extremely important to have cover corners that can work alone. The second issue is having enough good cover guys (adding King and Jones solves that for the Packers) that the middle of the field becaomes too clogged for receivers and interceptions become prominient.
He also said the Nascar package that Capers used to deploy will be perfect for his LB personnel now.
One last thing he said about Adams, he will keep the LB behind him clean and that LB will make a ton of plays.
This isn't from me but a Raven's fan so I remain hopeful but guarded.
Packer_Fan
May 01, 2017 at 11:38 am
Temper our expectations. Hmmm..... GB has an all world QB and with each passing year, one less opportunity to win another Super Bowl. GB will not win a Super Bowl with House, Randall, Rollins and Gunter playing CB. We need King or Jones to shine the first year. If Matthews or Perry get hurt, as they do almost every year, then we will need Biegel or Fackrell to provide much needed depth. And if Montgomery gets hurt, (has he played a whole season without injury -- no & especially a whole season getting beat up as a RB), then one or more of the rookie RB's will need to step up and produce. No, expectations will need to be high. GB will only go as far as this draft class can provide good depth and a few starters.
PETER MAIZ
May 01, 2017 at 11:43 am
I think TT did alright considering that after the second round, the exceptional talent is depleted. I really think King will start from day one and he's got the speed and height not to be burned by speedy wide receivers. If we improve the defense even by a bit, Rodgers can do the rest.
the REAL Packman
May 01, 2017 at 12:51 pm
Draft Grades
Packers- B+ Turns into a "A" if King, Jones, Adams and Biegel contribute right away
Bears- A+ if you r a Packer Fan... otherwise an "F" worst draft this year. Set the Bears back a couple of years.
Detroit - C Vanilla
Minnesota- B... Still have a QB issue.. Bradford is not the answer.
dobber
May 01, 2017 at 01:46 pm
"Bradford is not the answer."
...and they will likely not use Bridgewater's fifth-year option (he may not play again). A team in a QB hole...
HankScorpio
May 01, 2017 at 05:05 pm
The Bears had one of the worst teams in the league in 2016. Their draft class is 5 people strong. Assuming an excellent hit rate of 60%, they added 3 guys that can play. 2 is more realistic.
Ryan Pace is not going to stick around long with that kind of approach to roster building.
Samson
May 01, 2017 at 07:45 pm
If Trubisky turns into a franchise type QB in a few years, that's all that matters to the Bears. The Bears aren't afraid to sign FAs so they have several ways of improving besides the draft.
marcopo
May 01, 2017 at 01:14 pm
I loved this Packer draft. It's about time the defense woke up to a changing NFL. Downplay base defenses. In today's game it's specialty packages, trying to match up with modern passing offences. Rookies can make a substantial impact as role players. Having tall, fast deep backs who can cover one-to-one is huge. Look at the problems the Packer's have had with tightends and the middle of the field. Look at last year's disaster in the championship game. Each of the first five picks fills specific needed roles. Now, it will be interesting how Capers employs his new talent and when.l
Samson
May 01, 2017 at 07:41 pm
Very few rookies anywhere have an immediate impact their 1st season. However,GB needs at least a couple of the rookies to play many minutes and play well. --- My guess is that King and one of the RBs (whoever steps up out of the 3) will be playing out of necessity. --- Hopefully, a third player (Biegel?) could also get the minutes and play well. --- Some 'impact blood' is needed.
PatrickGB
May 01, 2017 at 10:16 pm
I really liked most of the players picked in rounds 2-4. After that maybe one of the three RB's will do well. I happen to like Mays. Strong Kid. He looks like a raw, younger Lacy. Maybe Getsy can get one of the WR's to be ready to play. He might have been the guy who improved Adams play last year and can do it with two guys who also struggled with press coverage.
LASVEGAS-TOM
May 01, 2017 at 10:39 pm
It's my opinion, but I think Vince Biegel is the Best Player GB got in this draft. I can't believe he wasn't taken sooner. That's not my Badger Red talking. He's a Tough Linebacker. Much Tougher than Watt. I'm saying right now, if he's healthy when the season starts, He'll be starting for GB. He might be the Best they have Right Now!!. I've said it. If I'm wrong, I'll be the 1st to admit it. This was a Great Pick by GB.
LVT