Packers at Vikings: Gameday Preview - 2023 Week 17
The Packers and Vikings are both in playoff mode. Tonight's loser is effectively eliminated from the playoffs. Can Joe Barry stop a Day 3 rookie backup quarterback from ending Green Bay's season?
By BruceIrons
The last time the Packers played the Vikings, Kirk Cousins tore his achilles on the way to an easy 24-10 win.
Minnesota has played musical quarterbacks, with 3 different starters since then, but has the same 7-8 record as the Packers with similar playoff chances.
WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL
Jordan Love has been the story of the season. He's grown as a passer and a leader. He's on pace to throw for 4,000 yards despite missing his best offensive lineman and not having a 1,000 rusher or receiver. His weapons have all been in and out of the lineup, but he's keep the team moving forward.
Tonight, he may need to take it up a notch to stay alive.
Aaron Jones has made some big plays since returning from injury, but he's never been a workhorse 30-carry back that can grind out a game. AJ Dillon will be on a limited snap count with a broken thumb. The receiving group has been all kinds of beat up.
Jordan Love will need to shine to win tonight. So what is he up against?
The Vikings defense has been their strength in the latter part of the season, but it hasn't been without inconsistency. The unit gave up 30 and 27 points the last two weeks as they lost a couple close games, but they only allowed a combined 12 points the previous two weeks (including the history 3-0 win over the Raiders).
Despite some ups and down, Brian Flores has been a great defensive coordinator for Minnesota and has an eclectic group in position to carry a rudderless offense to the playoffs.
Danielle Hunter is still the star of the unit and ranks third in the league with 15.5 sacks. Fellow veteran Harrison Smith doesn't have the gaudy stats or range of his prime, but he knows all about position ball and has been instrumental in limiting big plays. Undrafted rookie linebacker Ivan Pace Jr has been coming on, and proven especially effective in coverage.
Minnesota runs a flexible nickel base and Pace has helped them limit teams in the passing game.
Green Bay's passing game starts with Zach Tom slowing down Danielle Hunter. From there, who ever is playing receiver for the Packers will have to find slivers of space in coverage.
Then it's just up to Jordan Love to thread needles.
The Vikings defense under Brian Flores has been one of the better units in the league and rarely commits penalties. They're playing at home where the crowd noise (real or fake) is always an issue.
It would be nice if Aaron Jones could come up with a couple big runs and Jordan Love could some up with a deep ball or two to keep this defense spread out.
If they have to rely on short and intermediate passes without much run support, this Minnesota coverage scheme will smother them.
WHEN THE PACKERS ARE ON DEFENSE
The Vikings offense is a big unknown.
Running back Alexander Mattison has been having a down year. Backup Ty Chandler had a breakout game a couple weeks ago, rushing for 132 yards and a score, but was relegated to 17 yards on 8 carries last week. The Packers have no idea who will get the bulk of the carries tonight.
Pass catchers are a question mark, too. Jordan Addison, who may not play with his injury, has been an instant impact player as a rookie and will be missed if he doesn't play. TJ Hockenson, an All Pro caliber tight end who leads the team in catches and yards, definitely will not play after being added to injured reserve with a brutal knee injury. It's unknown how the passing game will change with these injuries.
The Vikings offense does, however, again have the best receiver in the league in Justin Jefferson. After returning from injury a couple weeks ago, he came up with 6 catches for 141 yards and a touchdown against the Lions last week.
And the whole show will now be run by 5th round rookie quarterback Jaren Hall, who has thrown a total of 10 passes in his short career.
The Vikings offense is sure to be full of surprises.
To play to their strengths with Hall, who is undersized and fast, they'll run a lot of read options and quick passes. Hall is good at making quick reads and hitting short passes. He is a mobile passer, but his weakness is the deep ball.
The best defense in this situation would be a stacked box, with tight coverage, and a extra attention placed on Justin Jefferson. Keep Hall in the pocket with strong edge containment and spy him with Quay Walker.
It seems so simple, but I haven't seen this Packers defense do the simple things much this year.
Gary, Smith, and Clark need to dominate their one on ones to stop Justin Jefferson from running roughshod against an understaffed try-hard secondary that will be missing Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes.
FINAL THOUGHTS
There are no easy wins in the NFL.
If there were, they would come against a team with a languishing running game who just lost most productive receiver and will start a Day 3 rookie in a carousel of quarterbacks that has already had 4 different starters.
If...
Joe Barry has proven again and again that no quarterback is so bad that they can't be the Player of the Week against his defenses.
I'm hoping that the players come out fired up and squash this B-team offense, but I don't have a lot of confidence in that.
I think the Vikings home crowd energy and unfamiliar game plan will be too much to overcome for a defense who's trademark move is flapping their arms in confusion.
Maybe Jordan Love has a statement game and carries this team to victory, but that's a tall order.
Vikings 27, Packers 20
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Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan's Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.
Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.
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Comments (25)
fireball
December 31, 2023 at 06:23 am
I've got no idea who will win this game. I'm mostly interested in seeing how the Packers will do. Will Jordan be good? Will he show even more improvement in his passing? And the Packer defense. Against the pass, a rookie quarterback?
And Justin Jefferson. . .
NickPerry
December 31, 2023 at 06:37 am
"The best defense in this situation would be a stacked box, with tight coverage, and a extra attention placed on Justin Jefferson."
SO...What this REALLY means we'll see is the Packers DBs playing 10 yards off with 2 down linemen, Gary and Smith standing up on the edges, with both Safeties playing deep... REAL DEEP.
GVPacker
December 31, 2023 at 08:36 am
Both Safeties playing deep....Yep I expect Joe Barry will have both Packer Safeties to be In The Parking Lot!
ricky
December 31, 2023 at 10:40 am
I just hope the safeties don't get run over while covering from the parking lot.
SinceLombardi
December 31, 2023 at 06:56 am
After back to back to back embarrassments (shades of the 80s) I don’t know what to expect.
Minnesota has a decent defense so I would expect some mistakes from Love.. ordinarily this would be a game where you expect your defense to carry you. I can’t expect anything ( especially in the 4th quarter on the road ) from Joe Barry.
I also have a sneaking suspicion that even if the win tonight they will blow it against the Bears.. much like last year’s finale against Detroit. Matt LeFleur is pretty much 0 for in elimination games.
crolson1964
December 31, 2023 at 09:00 am
This is all because Lafleur is an offensive coordinator NOT a head coach.
mrtundra
December 31, 2023 at 07:48 am
If we can generate a steady pass rush and pressure on the viking QB, we can keep this game close. I feel the weakest part of the vikings is still their OL. I look to Van Ness, Gary and Enagbare to have big games. I trust Valentine and Ballentine to play better, in WR coverage, than Stokes and Nixon, so if any DB has any doubts as to who to cover, stick to the guy with "Jefferson" on his jersey. Getting our running game going will also be crucial, if not just to take heat off of our passing game. I am hoping Watson can play and if not him, we need Melton to take the top off of the viking D, downfield. Packers 24 vikings 17.
stockholder
December 31, 2023 at 07:59 am
The current state of the packers is “Tension.”
And Maybe it is now taking it’s toll on;
"The physical and mental health of the players".
So when I, and others said," the Packers were headed for Hell
without Rodgers".
The Alexander suspension;" has really tipped us off " to
The same problems since 2010.
That the Defensive scheme
just isn’t good enough.
And management refused to correct it.
So is the solution to fighting the Brain trust.
Pack up and leave, or give up the fight.
That is exactly what we NEED to see against the Vikings.
mnbadger
December 31, 2023 at 08:04 am
Bruce I agree with your assessment of these two teams.
Obviously your brain generated your final score, I won't debate that either.
But there's no way in bloody hell I'll pick the blow hard queens.
I'm going with my gut . . .
Pack 33 - ladies 30.
GPG
Coldworld
December 31, 2023 at 08:10 am
They will blitz from the outset. They really have to due to lack of threat otherwise. Will our O Line handle it better than they did in the second half last week? To win this game we have to take advantage of that and get the ball consistently behind their front 7.
Ordinarily I’d say the running game would be critical too, but I don’t have enough faith in LaFleur to stick with it long enough to have effect or in our ability to block between the tackles to force them to keep defenders honest and get some play action going. If Melton plays, let’s use his speed to stretch them too. That helps with forcing potential blitzers back from the line as well.
As to the D, Hall can move. Whether planned or not, if we play him like we did DiVito it will be a belated Christmas gift. We have to get home if we get in the backfield but also plan to contain his escapes. I will leave it at that on D, we all know what soft coverage on Jefferson tends to look like. Addison too is well set up to exploit that.
LambeauPlain
December 31, 2023 at 08:12 am
The best defense (as it always is with Barry Ball) is Love leading the Offense on long, clock chewing, scoring drives...hopefully TDs...and keeping the confused, depleted, disgusted D off the field.
Do that and the Pack can prevail on the scoreboard 34-17.
Objective #1 is Love and the O controlling the game flow and time of possession. Limit ST penalties, and give Barry as few plays to call as possible.
Just beat the Ugly Purple.
GVPacker
December 31, 2023 at 08:42 am
If Jordan Love can keep the Packers Offense on the field for the entire 60 minutes of the game It will serve two Important purposes #1 The Vikings Defense will be gassed out
and #2 and more Importantly Joe Barry won't have a chance to scheme against the Vikings Offense! That's a Win Win situation!
LeotisHarris
December 31, 2023 at 09:18 am
Games against the Minnesota NFL franchise bring out real emotion for me, even more than games against Chicago. I would love to see us get out to a lead fast, add to it each time we have the ball, and blow these guys out.
Our opponents tonight don't have players or coaches I detest like they have had in the past. Their fans remain insufferable and I wish them nothing but continued suffering in their fandom.
Packers 38
Minnesota NFL Franchise 13
Qoojo
December 31, 2023 at 11:43 am
Me too. The team that has never mattered in the nfl beyond playoff filler, always acting like they won something. Without doubt, across the decades, the biggest chokers in the history of the NFL: 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s, 00s, 10s, 20s,...a tradition of choking that hopefully never ends.
Most recently, the epic loss to Falcons in the dumpster done (90s). The wonderful loss to saints on a Favre INT at end (00s) (the single most enjoyable Favre INT where an entire fanbase went "told ya"). The pretenders getting routed by eagles (10s). Then last year was special because they thought they were going somewhere, only to end up 1 and done, and slapped out of the playoffs.
NitschkeFromTheGrave
December 31, 2023 at 09:44 am
Joe Berry could not coach a fat family standing in line at an all you can eat buffet.
BAMABADGER
December 31, 2023 at 09:53 am
1) Stop the run,,, for a change
2) Contain the young QB, this kid can run and assume he is an accurate passer (Career passing record 8 - 10)
3) Get at least 2 TO on D.
4) No offensive TO
5) Run the ball effectively for success with the play-action. Do not run Dillion from the shotgun.
barutanseijin
December 31, 2023 at 09:54 am
My sense from lurking on Vikings boards is that Vikings fans have given up on their team. It’s possible they’ve sold their seats to incoming Packers fans, which would mean the noise levels will be more subdued and more Packer friendly than usual.
As for the Vikings themselves, the reason they’re starting Hall is partly to see what they have. In other words, winning the game isn’t necessarily priority number one. If Lafleur can motivate and prepare the Packers like he did for the KC game they should have a good chance to steal a road victory.
Mister Chievous
December 31, 2023 at 10:06 am
the vikings will pipe in fan noise over the pa system as they always do, packers fans or no
barutanseijin
December 31, 2023 at 11:44 am
Sure , but it it’s not the same when there isn’t real fan noise feeding back and amplifying the fake stuff.
Mister Chievous
December 31, 2023 at 10:07 am
this is where the decision to unload rasul douglas to move up a few positions in the draft comes crashing down on the packers season.
Lphill
December 31, 2023 at 11:27 am
This loss should be the final nail in Joe Barry's coffin .
Qoojo
December 31, 2023 at 11:31 am
As far as the DB situation goes, I think they are down to the duo that started against Det and KC. But in both those games, the offense came out firing which put pressure on the other team, so if the offense struggles early, it could be a long game for packers.
In other news, dallas had an epic defensive collapse at the end of the game like the packers. Huge chunks of yardage given up in a prevent defense.
barutanseijin
December 31, 2023 at 11:55 am
I thought the Cowboys needed to eat more clock on the previous drive. More Pollard might have been better for them. At any rate, fortunately for the Cowboys, Campbell was more concerned about looking tough than winning the game and refused to just kick the extra point. Or maybe he just didn’t want to go to overtime in a game that really didn’t matter much to his team.
Qoojo
December 31, 2023 at 12:34 pm
That was some poor play calling by MM or perhaps bad execution by QB to throw it away.
Packers0808
December 31, 2023 at 12:13 pm
Hopefully Barry is on staff from here on in name only and someone this past week has done the job Barry hasn't all season, come up with a defensive game plan!