WHEN THE BILLS HAVE THE BALL

The Bills offense leads the NFL in yards.

They're known for their explosive passing attack, led by Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Gabriel Davis.

As a team, they have the most passing yards and second most passtng touchdowns in the league. Diggs is less than one yard per game behind Tyreek Hill for the most in the league. He's also tied for the most touchdowns by a wide receiver. He's a big play waiting to happen.

So, shut down the pass game and make them run?

Well, the Bills only run 36% of the time. That's 26th in the league. That's below the Packers. That's not a lot.

However, when they do run, they're very effective at 4.8 ypc. They've rushed for 100 yards in every game this year. Devin Singletary is the lead back, but James Cook and Zack Moss play key supporting roles in the rushing attack.

Oh, and Josh Allen is a major running threat, too, with as many yards per game as AJ Dillon.

So what can the Packers do?

Jaire Alexander will need to lock down Stefon Diggs. There's not a lot of people that can stop Diggs, but Alexander is one of them and a great effort from him could propel the defense.

De'Vondre Campbell will have a big role to play in the run defense. Devin Singletary is a small, tough back with more quickness than speed. He needs to be contained with physicality and run fits. Campbell will be counted on to fill gaps in the run game.

Quay Walker will be just as critical. His speed will be key to limiting Josh Allen's scrambling. The Bills will certainly try to confuse him with schemes designed to get him out of the middle of the field.

Clark and Reed (and maybe even Wyatt) will need to get some disruption to throw the Bills offense off rhythm. Everyone in the back levels will need to do their job, but it will take game-of-the-week type individual performances from Alexander, Campbell, and Walker to stop Buffalo's biggest stars and keep this game within reach.

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

The Packers have been begged to run the ball all year. Playing against a high-powered offense like Buffalo should make it very enticing to run more, grind the clock, and keep that Bills offense on the bench.

There's just one problem with that.

The Bills have the best run defense in the league, allowing only 3.5 yards per carry.

So, I guess the Packers need to pass to keep up, right?

The Bills have allowed only 5 passing touchdowns this year (3rd in the league) and have forced 10 interceptions (1st in the league).

The Bills defense is, in a word, dominant.

You're not going to find a matchup to exploit and you're not going to pencil-whip them with some gameplan they never saw coming.

The only way to move the ball on them is block well and play with balance.

The Packers offense line received a complete makeover last week and looked like a marked improvement over preview games (though it was a very low bar).

They'll need to take it up another notch if they want to give the running game or the passing game a chance tonight.

Aaron Jones has been the only player who's really created on his own this year. He'll need to be the focal point of the offense in the run game and the pass game.

Up front, against Bills box defenders like Ed Oliver and Tremaine Edmunds, the Packers will have a hard time banging AJ Dillon ahead with no blocking and expecting anything.

If Christian Watson is back, his speed can help loosen up the run game with his jet sweeps and fake jet sweeps. His speed will also be counted on to open up some passing lanes.

Robert Tonyan has been the most productive Packers receiver and will be counted on heavily tonight with Lazard out. Watson could help open things up for him underneath.

Aaron Rodgers has looked bad in the box score, but he's not playing as bad as many people think. His receivers haven't been great and the defenses he's faced have played very well. Tonight, he'll need to be masterful, but that goes beyond chucking the rock. He'll be counted on for great play action fakes, keep the offense in rhythm, and making sure the attack doesn't become one-dimensional.

If Buffalo gets to dictate how the Packers call their offense, it's over.
 

OTHER NOTES

The only game the Bills lost all year was a 21-19 defeat to the Dolphins. But there's not much to glean there, either.

The Bills won the yardage battle 497-212, had more first downs by the wide margin of 31-15, and rushed for almost three times as many yards. They were also much better on 3rd down and only turned the ball over once. Oh, and they won time of possession 40:40 to 19:20.

They dominated. 

And lost.

It was a flukey loss. The kind of loss the Packers have been on the wrong end of.

It didn't give a lot of insight, but it did show that the Bills are vulnerable to flukes as much as any other team.

That may be the Packers best hope.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The Bills are statistically the best team in the league, they have talent oozing from every position, and they're coming off a bye.

The Packers, who also have talent oozing from every position, have played like hardcore (expletive) for weeks. They only place they look like a top 10 team is in draft position for next year.

But we've all seen Aaron Rodgers shock the world in situations like this before. Situations where they're being doubted and facing a good team in prime time (where the Packers are a perfect 13-0 under Aaron Rodgers in his last 13 prime time games).

I'd love to see that again.

I just don't think I will.

The Packers haven't figured out how to hit on all cylinders yet, and that's what it will take to beat the Bills.

Maybe they'll put up a fight and keep it close.

I just don't think they will.

Packers 13 Bills 38