Last week: 10-6

Season: 22-10

Winners in bold. 

Washington vs New York Giants:

Think the @Giants get off the mat tonight against the @Redskins. Give me Giants: 23 Redskins: 20

— Aaron Nagler (@AaronNagler) September 25, 2015

Atlanta vs Dallas

The Falcons are playing a cohesive style of defense that isn’t that surprising given that Dan Quinn is the one coaching it. They’ll continue to exhibit a solid sense of purpose against an undermanned Cowboys offense. On the Cowboys side, Sean Lee is quietly playing at an outstanding level at weak side linebacker and the Dallas defense is benefiting as a whole.

I think this is a low scoring game with the Falcons coming out on top.

Indianapolis vs Tennessee 

While I was never on the “They’re going to the Super Bowl!” train that many were when it came to the Colts this summer, I did not see their offense struggling so mightily against the blitz.

I also didn’t see Marcus Mariota being as efficient as he has been through his first two professional starts. I truly want to pick the Titans here, but I tend to think Luck takes advantage of the Tennessee secondary.

I’m taking the Colts, but I don’t feel confident about it. At all.

Oakland vs Cleveland

The Raiders really did play one hell of a game against the Ravens. Derek Carr demonstrated real poise in situations we saw him fall apart in last year.

The Browns defense will be the story of this game. Yes, McCown is coming back to play quarterback, but ultimately I think this will be about the two defenses. Cleveland forces the big mistake to help send the Browns to 2-1.

Cincinnati vs Baltimore

The Bengals swept the Ravens last year and the Ravens have yet to win a game this season. This combination would suggest that Baltimore will come out with “something to prove” but that sort of thing is always overblown.

The Bengals offense has looked very diverse and potent. The Ravens defense has looked suspect without Terrell Suggs. I can’t believe I’m picking my AFC Super Bowl pick to drop to 0-3, but that’s what I’m doing. The Bengals get the win.

Jacksonville vs New England

While the Jaguars looked much improved against a listless Dolphins team at home, I expect it to get late real early against the champs on the road. Patriots run away with this one in the second half.

New Orleans vs Carolina

While the headlines this week have focused on Drew Brees, the fact that the Saints defense is as bad as most expected it to be is just straight up depressing.

The Panthers are winning despite being without Luke Kuechly. All signs to him not playing again this week. I don’t think it matters. Panthers send the Saints to 0-3.

Philadelphia vs New York Jets

Back in March, I was interested to see how Byron Maxwell would hold up as the Eagles’ #1 corner. The early returns are not great. Now here comes Brandon Marshall.

The Eagles offense has looked completely out of sorts, and on the road against Todd Bowles’ defense is not the place to sort them out. The Eagles fall to 0-3 and Philly sports radio is in for a week of pure brilliance.

Tampa Bay vs Houston

The Texans have an incredible defensive front. Unfortunately, that rarely equates into wins. Ryan Mallett and the Houston offense are difficult to watch.

Not that Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers’ offense are that much easier on the eyes, but Winston did look much improved vs the Saints. The Texans, however, will force him into a few mistakes that hand them the victory. This game has JJ Watt-With-Multiple-Touchdowns written all over it.

San Diego vs Minnesota

The Vikings found Adrian Peterson and Teddy Bridgewater played like we thought he would all summer. More than anything, those two factors led to Minnesota’s win over Detroit. I don’t see much changing against the Chargers.

San Diego will be a bit more effective against the Vikings defense than the Lions were, but ultimately Bridgewater and Peterson keep the Vikings in front in this one and push their team to 2-1.

Pittsburgh vs St. Louis

The Rams’ defensive front will  be a problem for every team that comes into St. Louis and the Steelers are no different in that regard.

That said, Big Ben has Bell back at running back and even with a suspect defense of their own, Pittsburgh will put up enough points to outgun Nick Foles and company. Steelers get the win.

San Francisco vs Arizona 

I don’t know what the 49ers safeties were trying to do presnap last week against the Steelers, but it failed miserably. They’ll be under pressure all afternoon from Carson Palmer, who is picking up where he left off prior to being injured last year.

I just don’t see how the 49ers keep up in this one.

Buffalo vs Miami

Two teams smarting from losses, one with a coach who can be aggressive to a fault, one with a coach who can be too timid to a fault.

Give me the aggressive coach in this one. Bills go to 2-1.

Chicago vs Seattle

Even if Marshawn Lynch doesn’t play (he’s a game time decision) Seattle will devour the Bears. I actually think John Fox will have them prepared and this will be close early. But eventually, the Seahawks pull away after Jimmy Clausen is forced into multiple mistakes.

Seattle gets their first win of 2015.

Denver vs Detroit

The Lions’ offense has been shockingly impotent and now here comes a very, very good Denver defense. Then we flip the script and see a shockingly impotent Denver defense against a Lions defense that has looked, well, not close to the level of play they exhibited last season. To my mind, that has much more to do with the absence of DeAndre Levy than their offseason losses.

In what promises to be what I think is an ugly-fun type of game, I’ll take the Lions simply due to their level of desperation.

Kansas City vs Green Bay

As long as Aaron Rodgers is healthy, it won’t matter much if there’s no Lacy or Adams. The big worry, obviously, is the Chiefs’ edge rushers. The Packers have shown they have the capacity to at least negate outside pressure while in Lambeau.

The big concern for Green Bay is Jamaal Charles. They simply can not allow him to take the game over. If they can limit him to an output they can live with, they win the game.

I think the Packers simply outscore the Chiefs in what I tend to think ends up being a high-scoring game.