Nagler's Never Right: 2015 Season Week One Picks

Aaron's picks for the opening week of the NFL's new season. 

Here we go again. Winners in Bold.

 

Pittsburgh vs New England

Called this one pretty close

Green Bay vs Chicago

I ride with Mike McCarthy on this one.

The Packers are headed down to Chicago to kick the Bears’ ass. Oh, John Fox will have his team ready and they’ll fight the valiant fight. But the talent gap is just too wide between these two teams. I don’t care if Jordy Nelson isn’t there, the Packers could grab a beer vendor out of the stands and Rodgers would get him six receptions for 85 yards and a touchdown.

I expect this to be touch and go early until the Packers pull away in the second half.

 

Kansas City vs Houston

The Chiefs sure looked like a team that wants to push the ball downfield during the preseason. Of course, wanting to and being able to are two different things, especially when you’re facing off against Houston’s formidable pass rush and opportunistic defense. Expect Andy Reid and Alex Smith to cling to their patented short passing game for dear life.

Of course, the Chiefs pass rush is nothing to sneeze at either. And in a battle of Brian Hoyer and Alex Smith running for their lives, I’ll take Smith. Houston has won 4 of the last 5 games it’s played that have mattered, but it’s a new year. Chiefs get the win.

 

Cleveland vs New York Jets

Both these defenses will be fun to watch this year and both quarterback positions will reach train-wreck level before November. That said, in Week 1, I tend to think Todd Bowles will make life completely miserable for Josh McCown, while Ryan Fitzpatrick will do just enough to put up the points New York needs to win.

 

Indianapolis vs Buffalo

The Bills led the league in sacks last year and now here comes Rex “Pressure Package” Ryan to make things even worse for opposing quarterbacks. Yes, Andrew Luck and the Colts offense will move the ball and put points on the board. Yes, Tyrod Taylor is a great unknown. But Ryan is the best X’s and O’s coach in football and he and his team will shock some people by beating the Colts in Week 1.

 

Miami vs Washington

While Washington isn’t totally bereft of talent, they are in for a long season, due mostly to the quarterback position. The Dolphins have a deep and talented roster that should dominate this game from the start. Ryan Tannehill will make plays from the pocket and on the edges.Kirk Cousins will be Kirk Cousins. Dolphins roll.

 

Carolina vs Jacksonville

Remember when these teams were in their respective conference championships after only two years of existence? Good times. Observers are down on the Panthers. I am not. I think the Jaguars have made good strides this offseason and think Blake Bortles takes a big step this year, but the Carolina defense is going to be too much in this one and Cam and the Panthers offense will do just enough to pull out the road win.

 

Seattle vs St. Louis

I desperately want to pick the Rams in this one. Jeff Fisher’s group has given Seattle trouble in their place a few times over the last few years and Gregg Williams’ front seven should be far too much for the Seahawks’ offensive line.

But Russell Wilson, as always, is the X Factor, a guy who will make plays he has no business making, more than once. Contrast that with Nick Foles and a St. Louis offense that, even facing a Seahawks defense that will be missing Kam Chancellor, will struggle to put points on the board. Seattle opens with a narrow, hard fought victory.

 

New Orleans vs Arizona

The Cardinals won a lot of games by the skin of their teeth last year and a good part of that was due to the play of their defense. I worry about the departure of Todd Bowles here, especially against a repurposed Saints offense that wants to pound the football a bit more and work off play action deep.

While I think Carson Palmer and John Brown will make some hay against the Saints defense, I expect the Saints to come out on top here.

 

Detroit vs San Diego

The Lions will most likely be without the services of Deandre Levy for this game and that should worry you if you’re a Lions fan. The Chargers are going to exploit the middle of the field in Levy’s absence.

And while the Chargers defense will have its hands full with the many weapons on Detroit’s offense, they will ultimately frustrate Matthew Stafford into at least one big mistake. I like the Chargers to win their opener at home.

 

Tennessee vs Tampa Bay

The rookie quarterbacks will obviously be the focus for most here, but I think Doug Martin will be the star of this one. I know I shouldn’t put any stock in a preseason performance, but Martin looks explosive as a runner again in a way he never was last year.

Tennessee might surprise some people with a versatile offensive attack, but Jamies Winston will help his team get the victory.

 

Cincinatti vs Oakland

While tearing down Andy Dalton is good sport in the offseason, on the field against an opponent he doesn’t face with regularity, he is actually more than serviceable as a quarterback. The Raiders get an incredible shot in the arm to their pass rush, at least for one week, from Aldon Smith. Paired with Khalil Mack, Oakland will have one of the most dynamic pass rush duos on Sunday.

That said, the entire Bengals offense is about Andy Dalton getting the ball out of his hands quickly, which he will do. Give me the Bengals on the road with the win.

 

Baltimore vs Denver

Reports of Peyton Manning’s demise have not only been greatly exaggerated, they’re just pissing me off now. Why is it that people just can’t wait to bury this guy? Even if he’s only 70% of what he was in his prime, he’s still better than most of the quarterbacks in the league. This offense will be leaning on CJ Anderson anyway, who may start slow against the Ravens, but he’ll pay off big time in the second half of this game.

The Ravens’ offense will be able to move the ball, and I expect another aging veteran who got little respect this offseason, Steve Smith, to have a good game. But Denver wins this one on the strength of Anderson and Manning.

 

New York Giants vs Dallas

It’s a good thing Eli Manning got paid this week, because he’s going to start earning that new money right out of the gate. Outside of Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. there isn’t a lot of talent tilting the field toward the Giants on offense. That said, I do think Eli will have success through the air. He'll have to, because I doubt the Giants do much on the ground.

Rod Marinelli’s Cowboys defense is going to get after the quarterback this year, an aspect that was severely missing last season. I tend to think they force Eli into one of his patented headscratching mistakes. On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys are going to run all over the Giants. I don’t care who is running the ball. That line is going to absolutely dominate New York up front. Tony Romo will make some big throws against a suspect Giants secondary, but mostly this will be the Cowboys imposing their will with their offensive line.

 

Philadelphia vs Atlanta

I look at the Falcons and, outside of drafting Vic Beasley, I don’t see much that they did this offseason that helps them solve their biggest problems from last year - protecting and rushing the quarterback.

The Eagles obviously made all the headlines this offseason with Chip Kelly’s seemingly unconventional moves, but I tend to think it’s the guys who were already in Philly, like Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox, who will dominate this game and get the Eagles and opening day win.

 

Minnesota vs San Francisco

Home dog on Monday night. After one of the craziest offseasons I can ever remember a franchise having, the 49ers must be thrilled there are finally games to play that provide them an opportunity to change the narrative. And that’s exactly what I think is going to happen. Yes, Adrian Peterson is back for the Vikings. Teddy Bridgewater is an exciting young quarterback. Minnesota’s defense will be tough as hell this year.

But the 49ers defense is going to surprise a lot of people, starting by forcing Bridgewater into a turnover and limiting the damage Peterson does in his first game back. Colin Kaepernick and the offense do just enough to pull off the upset.

 

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Comments (15)

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Otto's picture

September 12, 2015 at 01:32 am

Some thoughts:
Minnesota is going to push GB all year. If talent were equal between Mn and SF (which I don't think it is), the coaching strength goes to Mn. I think Mn beats whatever SF has left to field.

Swallow your coffee and set your cup down... ok? I think Oakland wins at home opening day. No, really. McKenzie has been building this team up. They've got a QB and a pass rush. That's how you win in NFL2015. Not that they will do a lot of it, but I think they can take Cincy at home.

I forget, is it Atlanta's year to be good or bad?

Tampa Bay could be fielding the '85 Bears defense and the 2000 Rams' offense, as long as Jameis Winston is their QB, I will never pick them. He looks like the classic million dollar arm and the five cent head.

"But Ryan is the best X’s and O’s coach in football" What? You know anyone with internet access can read this, right? Your children could read this 10 years from now. Little Eddie Haskell Nagler's whole school career is going to be kids laughing and pointing at him, "That's the kid whose dad said Rex Ryan is the best X's and O's coach in football!" For your kid's sake, maybe you should edit that.

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PackerAaron's picture

September 12, 2015 at 08:48 am

Plenty of people I know and respect who work in the NFL agree with me on Ryan. I'll be ok. But I thank you for your concern Otto.

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Green Machine's picture

September 12, 2015 at 10:14 am

But you have to admit this was funny -
" Your children could read this 10 years from now. Little Eddie Haskell Nagler's whole school career is going to be kids laughing and pointing at him, "That's the kid whose dad said Rex Ryan is the best X's and O's coach in football!" For your kid's sake, maybe you should edit that."

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croatpackfan's picture

September 12, 2015 at 02:11 am

Aaron, I play Fantasy Pick'em on NFL... And I tend to agree with Otto... I know that lot of football "reporters" talks about Rex Ryan like he is D mastermind, but, sorry, no... I will pick Bears' Vic w/o thinking over Rex... Also, underestimating Minnesota will not hurt them, just hurt your feelings... Rams were better QB far away of taking every victory every year from Seattle... Now, they have that better QB... So, at the end I have only half of your picks same as mine... It will be interesting how that will pan out!

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Malex Bone's picture

September 12, 2015 at 07:13 am

Seems reasonable.

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MarkinMadison's picture

September 12, 2015 at 07:29 am

If the cheater in New England isn't the best Xs and Os coach in football then it is I whom am mistaken about a great many things. Of course I don't play Fantasy Pick 'em on the NFL, so what do I know about anything.

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Green Machine's picture

September 12, 2015 at 10:15 am

"...then it is I whom am mistaken"

That was hard to read.

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MarkinMadison's picture

September 12, 2015 at 02:36 pm

Star Wars reference.

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Since'61's picture

September 12, 2015 at 09:17 am

Aaron - I don't know if I would say that Rex Ryan is the best X's and O's coach in the NFL but I would say that if Rex Ryan was our Defensive Coordinator instead of Dom Capers we as Packer fans would not be as concerned about our defense every week like we are now. Rex's problem is his ego which has convinced him that he is a Head Coach when in fact he is a DC disguised as a Head Coach. All he focuses on is his defense and all he talks about in his pre and post game press conferences is his defense win or lose. But I will agree with Aaron to the point that he is probably the best X's and O's defensive coach in the NFL. And he knows how to motivate his defensive players. They play with abandon and the intent to hit. I would love to see what he would do with the Packers defense, especially from an attitude point of view. Thanks, Since '61

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Tundraboy's picture

September 12, 2015 at 09:58 am

Totally agree.

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4thand1's picture

September 12, 2015 at 09:25 am

Picking week one games sucks. Most people go off of what teams did last year and that works most of the time. Its the surprise teams every year tha'ts fun to watch. Minny will push us to the brink for the div, and Seattle will not win theirs. The Dolphins are going to scare the hell out of NE, I'm glad we don't have to worry about SUH, he can end any teams season. Carolina will have a shut down defense, and Cooks will be a monster for N.O. You will be doing good to go 500 this week Aaron.

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EdsLaces's picture

September 12, 2015 at 09:57 am

Tyrod upsetting Luck? That's a bollllld prediction Mr. Nagler, but I like it.

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Green Machine's picture

September 12, 2015 at 10:17 am

Maybe Rex is the best X's coach.
Not the O's so much.

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Since'61's picture

September 12, 2015 at 10:36 am

Excellent! Thanks, Since '61

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alex's picture

September 12, 2015 at 12:36 pm

Let's see...

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