After a disappointing Week 14 performance, the 6-7 Packers return home this week to host the 6-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Green Bay still controls its own destiny and remains the seventh seed in a crowded NFC playoff picture, but the hill gets steeper after dropping last week’s matchup against the Giants. Here are six things to keep in mind going into Sunday’s Week 15 contest. 

1. Get in the Zone

Both offenses have struggled on defense to get stops on third down, with the Packers ranked 25th in the league and the Buccaneers ranked 26th in the league. Where things differ, though, is red zone defense. This is where Tampa Bay really tightens up with the Buccaneers ranking fourth in the league allowing a touchdown only 41.9% of the time. The Packers rank 10th allowing touchdowns on 51.1% of attempts. 

If the Packers are going to keep this one close, they’ll need to find a way to score touchdowns. Settling for field goals won’t cut it against a Buccaneers offense that’s averaging 20.2 points per game. Unfortunately, the red zone is where Green Bay’s offense tends to sputter. Despite ranking sixth in the league on third downs and ninth in the league converting fourth downs, the Packers fall all the way to 21st in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on only 24-of-47 trips (51.1%). 

Rookie kicker Anders Carlson is making 80% of his field goals this season. He’s perfect inside 39 yards, but then has gone four-of-seven inside 49 and two-of-four when the kick is over 50 yards. He’s also 24-of-27 on extra points, giving him a completion percentage of 88.9%. Coming off a two-point loss in Week 14, every point is going to matter on Sunday. 

2. Oh Good Evans

In his 10th season at age 30, Mike Evans has done it again. He’s eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards, something he’s managed to do every year of his career. He’s also added 10 touchdowns to his stat sheet, securing double-digit scores in five of his ten seasons as a pro. He’s averaging 16.5 yards per reception this season and 78.5 yards per game, so he’ll be a primary focal point for Green Bay’s defense on Sunday. 

Evans leads the Buccaneers receiving core by almost 400 yards, but quarterback Baker Mayfield has been good at spreading the ball around to his playmakers. Four different players have more than 40 receptions on offense: Evans (62), Chris Godwin (58), running back Rachaad White (42), and tight end Cade Otton (40). It’s an offense that’s been healthy, too, with all four players having played in every game so far this season. 

Somehow, despite his career numbers and the guarantee he’ll surpass 1,000 receiving yards annually, Evans remains an underrated player in the national spotlight. The secondary struggled last week against lesser receiving talent (no offense, Wan’Dale Robinson), so they’ll be in for a battle on Sunday against stiffer competition. 

Eric Stokes has been a full participant in practice, though there’s no guarantee how much he’ll play if he does return to game action in Week 15. Jaire Alexander remains limited with the shoulder injury, and Keisean Nixon is banged up with a quadricep injury. It seems likely it’ll be Carrington Valentine and Corey Ballentine again on the boundary for Green Bay. At safety, Darnell Savage hasn’t practiced with a shoulder injury and Jonathan Owens is limited by his knee. If they can’t go, expect to see Rudy Ford and Anthony Johnson Jr. back in the lineup. 

3. Running Away with Games

In Week 14 against the New York Giants, the Packers allowed 209 yards on the ground, giving up 6.1 yards per carry and two rushing touchdowns. It’s the fourth time this season Green Bay’s defense has given up over 200 rushing yards, and the eighth time this season they’ve given up 140-plus yards. 

White, Tampa Bay’s primary running back, leads the team with 1,164 scrimmage yards. He’s tallied 745 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground with 419 receiving yards and two touchdowns through the air. 

Where things get interesting, though, is that White is only averaging 3.7 rushing yards per attempt and 57.3 yards per game. In fact, the Buccaneers are 31st in the league in yards per attempt, averaging only 3.5, and the team is 29th in total yards with 1,170 through 13 games, or an average of 90 yards per game. 

In the beginning of the season, Tampa Bay struggled to run the football. There was a six-game stretch where the Buccaneers didn’t eclipse 100 rushing yards. However, the team is now on a three-game streak of 125-plus rushing yards. The Packers defense has only allowed under 125 rushing yards five times this season. 

4. Struggling in the Secondary 

When it comes to the defense, Tampa Bay actually fairs far better against the run than the pass. The Buccaneers are 10th in the league in rushing yards and ninth in yards per attempt with 3.9. In the passing game, Tampa Bay falls all the way to 30th allowing an average of 264 yards per game through the air. 

One of the leaders in the secondary is safety Antoine Winfield Jr. who is Pro Football Focus’ highest graded safety with an elite score of 91.4. He has two interceptions, 11 passes defensed, four forced fumbles, and four sacks this season. If there’s one player for Jordan Love to account for at all times, it’s Winfield Jr. 

This is a unit that’s taken a beating in recent weeks, too, with multiple starters listed on the injury report (sounds familiar, right?). Cornerback Carlton Davis has yet to practice this week with a groin injury, so his status for Sunday remains unclear. He did play in Week 14 though against the Falcons and even snagged a pick. Fellow CB Jamel Dean was also listed as limited with an ankle injury. He hasn’t played since mid-November, so getting him back in the mix would go a long way for the Buccaneers secondary.

Against Atlanta, Tampa Bay allowed Desmond Ridder to throw for a career high 347 passing yards, though he did throw the one interception. The Buccaneers have snagged 11 picks this season and Love has thrown 11 picks this season. Protecting the football will go a long way on Sunday. 

5. Return of the Mayfield 

Speaking of quarterbacks, Mayfield finds himself back at Lambeau Field for a third straight year. In 2021 he played on Christmas Day as the Browns quarterback. Then in 2022 he returned with the Los Angeles Rams. Now in 2023 he finds himself in Green Bay once again commanding the NFC South-leading Buccaneers. Coincidentally, all three games also take place in the month of December. 

Against the Packers in his previous two starts, Mayfield has thrown for 333 yards with three touchdowns and five interceptions. He’s taken 10 sacks and has an average quarterback rating of 61.6. Of note, the Packers have only managed six interceptions all season, tied for 29th in the NFL. Even if they’ve gotten after Mayfield in the past, there’s no guarantee he’ll give them as many opportunities on Sunday. 

To Mayfield’s credit, he’s playing some of his best football in 2023 for the Buccaneers. He’s thrown for 2,934 yards this season with 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions with a quarterback rating of 89.7. While he’s averaging 225.7 yards per game this season, the offense hasn’t surpassed 225 passing yards in four straight games. The Buccaneers are 2-2 in that stretch. 

Still, Mayfield isn’t the easiest quarterback to bring down. He was hit only once last week by the Falcons and took one sack for a loss of two yards. The Packers didn’t manage to get home once against the Giants. While Mayfield enter’s Sunday’s matchup 0-2 at Lambeau Field, he’s an experienced NFL quarterback that’s capable of winning football games in crunch time, just like he did last week against the Falcons. With an NFC South title on the line, the Buccaneers should be playing some of their best football.  

6. The Old Battle of the Bays

Of course, we’re all familiar with the fact that the Buccaneers used to be in the same division as the Packers in the old NFC Central. Per the dope sheet, dating back to 1990, the Packers are 14-1 against the Buccaneers at home in the regular season. In those games, 12 matchups were decided by single digits. 

Coincidentally, with the Panthers on the schedule next week, this is also the second time this season the Packers will play back-to-back games against NFC South teams. Green Bay is currently 1-1 against the NFC South with a loss to the Falcons and a win against the Saints. If the Packers win out, the tiebreakers likely won’t matter, but with four games left on the schedule and six teams sitting at 6-7 in the standings, it’s going to be a crowded playoff race in the NFC. 

What I’ll be drinking for the game: 

It’s a fun name this week, Bat$h!t Crazy (yes it’s really spelled that way) by MobCraft Brewing. It’s a coffee brown ale which feels appropriate for the first noon kickoff in three weeks. Hang on, because these final four weeks of the regular season are going to get Bat$h!t Crazy!