I really hope the Packers take on as much of the debt (the cap hit) this year as they can, even if it means few veteran FAs are acquired and those that are, are cheap. That fiscal prudence will go a long way to getting their cap situation back to what used to be normal for them, in 2025.

Packers have never have much room under the cap, but in the past they were seldom hamstrung with such crippling dead money issues, due to them only recently pushing so much debt into the future.

Once the current enlarged youth group hit all of their second contracts, the Packers need to be in a healthy position to better deal with them. Having a top QB is going to take a big chunk of that cap regardless, so they need to be careful in order to be able to re-sign most of the young guys they want to keep, without falling back into the same hole they are currently climbing out of.

Having lots of good draft picks at least gives the Packers a shot to draft potential starters at many positions. 5 picks on day 1 and 2 means they can (potentially) get extra quality players at some of these positions : S, ILB, IOL, RB, slot CB, Edge. They might want a second S and a DL as well................and a developmental OT and a new long-snapper (undrafted FA, probably).

The more picks you have, the more you can reload your position groups without paying premium money for a veteran on his second or third contract.

The reason for the large expenditure on veterans a while back (the year they got the Smiths, Amos, the Tackle whose name I forget), was due to poor drafts earlier, leading to holes they needed to fill with vets. Good drafting greatly lessens that need and should leave enough room for the occasional good veteran.

That sure got my head spinning this morning, TGR. HA! I'll have to digest this for a while.

All this stuff would have taken me weeks to research, and I probably would still have been going up the wrong tree trying to figure it out.

Thanks for doing all the legwork, TGR!

Seems unreal where this team still finds itself cap wise. By the time they're dug out of this they'll be into the next crisis.

Sad to see the end of the Bakhtiari era, but it's unbelievable how much he's cost for playing in a couple of games since 2020. That's the NFL for you.

Very good detailed article TGR. I am a CPA and find this a bit mind boggling and I understand you stating that these are estimates because of all the unknowns.

I have no desire to really examine all the details as it, to me anyway, is too much like work!

We, as fans, have a lot of respect for your knowledge of the CAP issues TGR. Keep up the good work.

You make a comment about not knowing really how good we are based on the schedule, etc. I usually fall back on, 'leave to the coaches and front office'. They get to see these players almost daily and since they are much more in tune with what they are looking at each day, they know more than we do where they need to draft and sign FA's to make our team competitive and better. Injuries can come into play, of course, but I always defer to them to make the proper calls personnel wise.

As far as I’m concerned I only really see a need for a significant FA signing(s) at the Safety position. The rest needs to come from what we have and the draft.

It is essential that we get clean of this rolling cap debt now in order to be able to truly contend in 2025 and beyond. Safety is an exception because the cupboard is bare throughout that room. No offense to Johnson, but one interesting developmental S does not change that.

We need starters this year and none of the possible returns are desirable starters in my eyes, especially if we will play single high snaps. Draft and develop behind them. Rebuild a pipeline and prevent this position holding us back in the upcoming season. Otherwise draft and develop to augment what we have.

Whatever this team is, its players other than Jones perhaps should be better in 2025 than 2024. Get cap healthy and position us to add pieces then as needed while rebuilding depth with upside. Resign Jones, sign safeties, draft at RB, OL and on D.

Sorry, it’s time to move on from Bakh. Whoever is LT, be it Walker or Tom or a draft pick, needs to grow with the rest for the future. Campbell to me depends on the health issues as assessed by the team. If he’s seen as on a physical downslope move on from him too.

Thank you TGR for laying all of this out so clearly.

We have five draft picks in the first three rounds. So, there is no urgency to dwell too much about free agency in my opinion. Instead, let us focus on the draft. I feel the elephant in the room is the inability to stop the run. It has been the Achilles heel of the defense for at least two years in a row. Everyone knows that games are won and lost in the trenches. The question is who can we add to help fix the problem up front? Granted, we need help in the secondary as well. But first things first. How can the draft help? Well, we could go safety or CB in the first round. That would be great. The second round with our two picks will be crucial. It is not who we take; it is also who is available for the rotation. Let's stop the run with pick 41 being DT T'Vondre Sweat. Outland trophy winner and unanimous first team all American. Offenses will be forced to double team him. Even then he breaks through the double teams. Did I mention the fact that he is listed at 6'4 and 362 lbs. He makes big men look small. If he is there at 41; run up to the table and draft him!

Thank you TGR. As CHTV's leading capoligist, I was looking forward to an article from you about the Packer's cap situation. You always provide great clarity on the murky business of the cap.

I was a bit surprised to find that releasing Bahk only got the Packers clear of the March 1 hurdle and did not provide them enough funding to also operate for the season. Getting funds for the season certainly puts a lot more pressure on Campbell than I realized (or requires them to assign max void years to Alexander's or Clark's contract). That makes it much more likely that Campbell is released given his age and performance over the last two seasons.

I would prefer the Packers not use too much in the way of max void years to create room to sign free agents this year. The Campbell release post June 1 will already push dead money ($8 million??) into 2025 and using void years will just push more. Get the cap right in 2024.

Not signing any significant free agent in 2024 will put more pressure on the draft, but depending on the kiddie corps worked out pretty well for the Packers this year. It was a bumpy first half of the season, but then the youngsters came on strong. I would rather try that program again than screw up the future cap by bringing in a higher priced veteran at safety. Play the draftees and get them introduced to the NFL. 2025 will look very good with experienced "kids" and a healthy cap.

If it's that simple to cut Bahk. Do it.

We are set up pretty nice for the 2024 NFL draft. Both in the fact that we have extra premium picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, and also because our 3 biggest needs, Safety, CB, and OG, will have plenty of really strong options in rounds 2, 3, and 4.

And depending on what happens @ #25, GB could score a top playmaker CB, or a gamechanger (for us) offensive lineman. Or if our top guys don't fall to #25, we can try to trade back and get more picks in the meat of the draft where our positions of need are strong. Plus it's the same cost for 2 second round picks as it is for one 1st round pick. Dream scenario would be the Giants still needing a QB and Nix, Penix, or McCarthy still available @ #25. We could score both of their 2nd round picks and have 4 in round 2.

What could complicate filling our biggest needs with the first 3 picks is if we slide another position group up ahead of these 3 biggest needs by picking a DT or OT, which thins the best player pools of positions we need filled. Both DT and OT would be luxury picks at this point. Since realistically, we are a "Decent" team with a fair amount of needs and not a "Good" team with few needs, we need to be cautious with sliding wants in front of needs.

We have a good group of D-linemen already, so no early draft additions there. We mainly need another really good OG early in the draft, not an OT.

We had defensive problems in 2 areas last year. Run defense and poor talent/poor tackling @ Safety both were liabilities that hurt the defense as a whole.

I propose 2 CHEAP fixes in free agency.

#1 is to sign Bobby Wagner to a 2-year contract for $9 million total. Maybe some incentives too, not that he seems to need motivation as he had 183 Tackles last year!! He would instantly make our run defense way better and we get the bonus of Walker and our draft pick LB getting to learn from one of the best ever. Wagner only made $4million last year. We should steal him for 2 years @ $5 million each.

#2 is to sign Jeremy Chinn-Safety-Panthers. I read he would be a good fit in GB and we might be interested. After 3 strong years of play he fell out of favor in Carolina. The dude is 6'3 220 and ran 4.45 @ combine. He probably isn't going to get more than it would cost us for Savage next year and he is a big upgrade for not much $$. He is still young, so he fits our youth movement too.

Those are my 2 cheap yet really cheap FA upgrades that would have a huge impact on taking our team to the next level while spending maybe $10 million. Add in a strong draft class filling our needs @ S, CB, OG, RB, and ILB, and we are set for the next 10 years.

Thanks for the article TGR. I'm hoping they let Newman go to avoid paying the escalator. Not sure what the point is in keeping a guy that has repeatedly shown he can't be trusted as a backup. It would mean an extra pick having to be spent on the OL but this is the year for it with the extra picks.

I think they have to add a mid level safety in FA. My choice would be Julian Blackmon who I think they could get for around the $7.9 million they paid Savage in'23. I'm usually under on what players end up getting but OTC has his value at $7 million for last year. I
really like Xavier McKinney but I think he's going to get well over $10 million.

Spend Free Agent Cap Space on a Kicker, PLEASE !! How many poor decisions are forced by missed xtra points or field goals. A Championship Caliber team doesn't go into a season with a question mark as a kicker. A minimum of 5 games were altered including a parting gift with San Fran because of the decision to go with a rookie kicker who has issues with xtra points never mind field goals. Veteran Kickers are cheap as well - poor decision making process last year in that respect, let's not repeat it.

The "Super Bowl Window" is wide open.....Bigger Badder OL gets us past SF type teams wether draft or FA. FA pro bowl level Safety plug and play. Another tough running RB at 220 lbs. That would get most of it done even if we brought back most other players. GPG

Pretty good stuff. We're in a lot better spot than we were a year ago, that's for sure.

I found your comments on Savage interesting, because it seems to me that Savage is one of our Top 10 DBs in any scenario and he wouldn't be that expensive, considering we already owe him $5M. If he could be brought back at the numbers you suggested, that seems like a very solid move for a team that has to completely rebuild that position.

I am reconciling to Campbell departing. I agree that Slaton and Myers aren't going anywhere. I have such a low opinion of Newman that I'd be reluctant to let him get injured at the facility, as you mentioned. I'd resign Runyan because he's an experienced vet who loves playing in GB, he's rarely hurt, and he can play more than one position.

Spend some of that money to resign Savage and Runyan.

Holy moly James—that’s an incredible amount of work you did.
But now I’ve mixed up the packer salary cap with my bank account. I thought I had a 6mil rollover -and bought a race boat—they’re towing it away right now and a swat team is approaching the house.
This is your fault James…….