I gave the Packers approximately zero percent chance of defeating the Dallas Cowboys.

After five consecutive losses, an unthinkable number after losses were so few and far between in the first several years of the Matt LaFleur era, my confidence in the team was as low as it’s been since Brett Hundley was taking meaningful snaps. But somehow the team pulled it together and defeated a superior opponent on their home turf, extending their run of dominance over a Cowboys team that is probably counting down every minute until Aaron Rodgers has finally left the sport.

So at 4-6, the Packers have a small amount of hope, whereas at 3-7 the door would have almost certainly been shut. 

We should emphasize “small amount.” Yes, the Packers still have a path to the postseason. Barring a collapse by the Minnesota Vikings that would be extraordinary even by their standards, the Packers’ path to the postseason would run through the wild card, and likely through that extra seventh seed.

There are still a couple teams ahead of the Packers on the way there, and they’ve got crucial tiebreakers over the team (specifically the New York Giants and Washington Commanders). The Packers truly have no margin for error left. They need a fair amount of help, plus they need to win almost all, if not all, their remaining games.

They’ve been in this position before. The 2016 “Run the Table” stretch is the stuff of legend at this point. But there’s been little so far this season to indicate this team has what it takes to go on that kind of run.

The Packers’ remaining schedule is not particularly favorable. They still have to play bona fide contenders in the Eagles and Vikings, have a tough Christmas Day road visit to Miami, and have to play the defending NFC Champion Rams at home. They also have another game against a Lions team that already beat them once, and could easily do so again. It’s going to take a titanic effort to get the six wins in seven games that they will probably need to have a shot at the postseason.

Stranger things have happened, of course. But to me, this feels like just another example of the Packers keeping hope alive as long as possible, only to twist the knife and make the inevitable heartbreak all the more painful.

If the Packers can get to their bye week after their next three games at 7-6, then I’ll be willing to start thinking about a potential playoff berth.

For now, though, it still seems to this observer to be little more than wishful thinking that the Packers will be playing beyond January 8th.

Wisconsin Beer of the Week

As you may recall, a few weeks ago I had the opportunity to return to my college town of Madison for UW’s Homecoming. I spent the whole weekend there taking in the sights and sounds of the best college town in America on one of its busiest and most exciting weekends.

That Friday night my pals and I started off by hitting up Young Blood Beer Company downtown which, as you know if you’ve read this column regularly, is often featured in this Beer of the Week space.

But as the night went on, we started getting closer to campus again, and we decided to hit up one of our old regular college spots: Vintage Spirits and Grill, located right by Ian’s Pizza on one of the main stretches of bars next to the campus.

Vintage has always had a more relaxed environment, and they carry a pretty solid selection of beers for a campus bar, primarily due to it being affiliated with Madison’s Vintage Brewing Company. There are many Vintage beers on tap, plus a variety of other taps and bottles, local and domestic. They have a pretty good food selection as well. In fact, I’ve gone for brunch several times over the years and always leave satisfied.

This time around I ordered a beer called Diamond Star Halo, one of Vintage’s flagship options. This pale, crisp, tangy sour is a brilliant golden color and is just the right combination of citrusy and funky. It’s very easy drinking, and a bit of an old style sour and a departure from the often over-fruited sours so common on the market today (which I love, but every now and then you want something different).

Just 4.8 percent ABV and 7 IBU, so despite the tanginess this one goes down really easily. Hit nicely after a night of having already been drinking some heavier beers!

Nixon/Ford 2022

Who would have thought that in this election year of 2022 we’d be singing the praises of a Nixon and a Ford?

Keisean Nixon and Rudy Ford have been absolute steals for the Packers this year in a secondary that desperately needed some depth. Neither starter at safety has been playing well this year, so having Ford able to come in and make plays and look like a reliable contributor has been a pretty big deal and one of the few bright spots of this season so far. He was already making big-time contributions in special teams coverage, but has now really exploded as a defensive playmaker after his two-pick day against Dallas.

Nixon has been valuable in filling in on returns in place of the disaster that was Amari Rodgers. He’s also been admirable in stepping on the field for actual coverage snaps, and has been an improvement over depth players in the secondary of years past.

In a year in which the Packers were actually meeting expectations and guys were playing up to their capabilities, these two could have been the kind of difference-makers on the lower end of the roster that help lead to championships.

Unfortunately, very few players have improved or even maintained their quality of play from last year, which kind of neuters the effects they can have on the roster.

Still, with Adrian Amos starting to look expendable and Darnell Savage having looked expendable for the better part of a year and a half, having Ford is a big deal. And with Eric Stokes missing extended time with an injury, Nixon has stepped up in a big way.

Packers cut Amari Rodgers and Kylin Hill

By now you’re all well familiar with the news from Tuesday that the Packers cut ties with wide receiver/returner Amari Rodgers and reserve halfback Kylin Hill.

The Rodgers decision is not at all a surprise. There was little, if anything, he did well. One could argue he’d started to come along as a blocker, but even then the guy is far too little for that to be his main role in an offense. He was unreliable at best in the passing game, and an absolute game-wrecking liability in special teams. The fact that he held on to the return job for as long as he did is a massive black mark on Matt LaFleur, who always seems to be weeks or even months behind the fan base when it comes to which players should and should not be receiving playing time.

Every single time the Packers put Rodgers on the field, they were asking for disaster to strike. It’s hard to blame Rodgers, who was in over his head. The Packers kept putting him in position to fail. I hope he catches on with Houston, who claimed him on waivers, but he never really showed the abilities he flashed at Clemson.

Hill was more surprising, given his dynamic abilities and his own potential as a returner. However, LaFleur hinted toward some potential issues with Hill as a teammate and locker room presence. We may never know exactly what went down there, but with Hill as a fringe roster guy anyway, there’s no point in keeping around a guy like that if it’s only going to create toxicity.

Around the NFC North

Once again we’ll take a quick look around the NFC North at what the Packers’ rivals are doing.

• The CHICAGO BEARS are scoring points, but they’re not quite ready to turn a corner if they’re losing games at home to a bad Lions team. As much as Justin Fields has improved as a playmaker on the ground, he’s still hardly being asked to do anything through the air. The Bears’ pass rush has been anemic, so the team signed former first round pick Taco Charlton this week. We’ll see if he can contribute anything–his NFL career has been a disappointment to date.

• The DETROIT LIONS are just like the 2021 version of the team: not good, lack talent, but play with a lot of heart and energy. Two divisional victories in a row will give a coach a lot of latitude, and it’s something for the team to build off of. You gotta love Jamaal Williams being the one to ice the victory against the Bears!

• The MINNESOTA VIKINGS’ defeat of the Bills was, at least in my eyes, stunning. I did not expect this team to go into Buffalo and come away with a win, let alone a win like the one they pulled off. Generally it’s the Vikings who are on the bad end of these types of defeats. At 8-1, are the Vikings a real, legitimate contender? In this weird 2022 season, I suppose anything is possible.

An unusual season

This has been quite an unusual season so far, to the point where it’s still hard to determine who the real contenders are.

The NFC has been wide open for much of the season so far, with recent contenders like the Packers, Buccaneers and Rams all floundering to various degrees and delivering disappointing campaigns. The 49ers have been mostly average. Newcomers like the Eagles and Vikings have the best records, but haven’t exactly looked unbeatable. They’re certainly the top contenders at the moment, though, largely because there haven’t really been any teams beyond them providing particularly impressive outings. The Seahawks lead their division at 6-4 but no one really seems to be taking them seriously.

You get to the AFC, which was expected to be a fight between the Bills and the Chiefs, but have a great deal of competition around them. The Bills have surprisingly lost three games to this point and haven’t been quite as unbeatable as their opening night drubbing of the defending champs suggested they might be. At this point they’re third in their division behind the Jets (also 6-3) and Dolphins (7-3), neither of whom were expected to be where they are at this point of the season.

 The Chiefs (7-2) have the best record in the conference and look like the safe bet for a Super Bowl berth.The Bengals (5-4) have picked it up a bit since a rough start to the season, but it would be a surprise to see them get back to the big game. The Chargers (5-4) have relatively underperformed expectations. The Patriots (5-4) are hanging around, but are in a very tough division and aren’t scaring anyone. The Ravens (6-3) are up and down quite a bit. 

I can’t remember the last time we were approaching Thanksgiving week and it felt like we knew so little about the landscape of the NFL. Teams will emerge in the final portion of the season as we get into December, but it sure doesn’t look like anyone is going to run away with it this year.

That makes for an exciting, but also confusing, next couple months of football!

Final look: Titans at Packers and Week 11 Picks

The Titans have the league’s worst offense this season, a far cry from the efficient crew that surprised the league over the last couple years. The Packers haven’t exactly been playing outstanding defense, but they at least should be capable of countering the Titans’ mild offense.

It’s the Packers’ offense I’m most concerned about. If Christian Watson’s explosion against the Cowboys was truly the start of something, maybe the Packers can be okay. But if it was an aberration, I expect a loss. 

The surprising victory over Dallas earned the Packers slightly more faith with me, enough where I think they can edge out a win at home on a short week. But I’d still classify the Packers’ odds at making the playoffs as being very, very small.

Packers 17, Titans 13

WEEK 11 PICKS

FALCONS over Panthers

SEAHAWKS over Bucs

COWBOYS over Packers

BILLS over Vikings

BEARS over Lions

DOLPHINS over Browns

TITANS over Broncos

GIANTS over Texans

CHIEFS over Jaguars

STEELERS over Saints

RAIDERS over Colts

RAMS over Cardinals

49ERS over Chargers

EAGLES over Commanders

LAST WEEK:  6-8

SEASON TOTAL: 84-66