We’ve reached the penultimate weekend of NFL football here at Cheesehead TV with just three games left. I often wonder if they should have spread out the games this weekend—NFC on one day, AFC the next—to get the most P.R. for the NFL, which is clearly a league which dearly wants for publicity.

Maybe that’s greedy.

For some fans—including those of this fine website—the year is not quite over and the rest of us should thank them for allowing us another week of wasting time on Sundays watching grown men beat each other up for a ball.

It’s great!

It’s going to be a long offseason, but with the draft and things like that not all that far off, we know there will still be a lot of NFL news to keep us entertained.

By the way, on behalf of New Jersey, I would like to apologize for Rutgers’ victory over the Wisconsin Badgers last Sunday.

OK, not apologize so much as rub your face in it. For what it’s worth, it’s unlikely to happen again as that was about the most perfect confluence of events—no Frank Kaminsky, another injury mid-game, home court actually being an advantage—you could think of.

So with that out of the way, here are my takes on the weekend’s action.

NFC Conference Finals

As you’ll read an awful lot about this right here on the site, I won’t beat this into the ground. Suffice to say this will be a very tough game to win.

The Seattle Seahawks are playing very good defense, solid offense and have a nice home field advantage. The Green Bay Packers have a banged up Aaron Rodgers, a solid defense and are on the road.

A lot of this game may come down to two things—how effective Eddie Lacy is and whether the Packers decide to cede half the field to Richard Sherman again.

I feel like Lacy will have a very solid day, though it won’t be easy. Why is it so critical though? Because I think the Seahawks are going to blitz and try to test just how mobile Rodgers really is. The Packers offensive line was very good but if the Packers are smart (and Rodgers is still as hurt as he appeared last week), they’ll try to keep the defense honest with a healthy dose of Lacy.

I’d also try not avoid repeating that Week 1 gameplan. Granted, the team is in a much different place now, but I’m not the sort of guy who wants to give up half the field.

I’m not saying challenge Sherman on every play, but don’t avoid him completely. Quick outs, short slants, passes like that will take advantage of the cushion he often gives receivers and when it draws him in, it will open up deeper posts for other players.

Again, you don’t have to attack him frequently—just keep him honest.

I’ll take my media hat off for a second and say that I’m actually pulling for the Packers. I texted Nagler last week, taking him to task for dragging me into this mess and having me yelling in the car last week as I was driving during the Packers win over Dallas. I blame you people also for being a lot of fun.

I also blame the Jets but that’s a whole different column and really, I love them anyway.

That said, I think Seattle has the edge in this game. The Packers, of course, have far more than a puncher’s chance but Seattle is just playing at such a high level—and are at home—that I think they win in a close one.

Here’s hoping I’m completely wrong.

*Puts Media Hat Back On*

AFC Championship

I’m not going to doubt the Indianapolis Colts again, not after the beating they put on the Denver Broncos last weekend.  Sure, there was a lot of Broncos-self-inflicted-wounds going on there (has anyone seen the defense yet?) but ultimately the Colts played far better than expected.

That said, I don’t think they go to New England and beat New England. The Patriots are 13^th in the NFL overall defensively, and have allowed the 8^th fewest points in the NFL over the last season. They are just 17^th against the pass, but have allowed the 13^th fewest passing touchdowns while tying for 12^th most interceptions.

There has been a lot of talk about the defense being overrated or, in some cases, not even that good period, but don’t get caught up in that. It is.

Over the first two rounds of the playoffs, Andrew Luck has thrown just three touchdowns compared to two interceptions. Not bad, but not great. He blew up the Cincinnati Bengals—you know, the kings of one and done—and did OK against the Denver Broncos. Overall his two picks were not entirely his fault and ended up being what amounts to really good punts, but they were a little forced.

But I don’t bet against Luck having a good game because he’s shown he can.

The problem for me remains the defense which played well last week, but that I don’t trust at all. I don’t believe they have to talent to shut Tom Brady down, and it’s going to be a real problem if Vontae Davis and Greg Toler are out. Even one of them would be an issue—both would be disastrous.

Davis is the bigger issue as he is a far better corner.

The thing is though, even if they both play I suspect Brady won’t be worried. You shut down Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski will kill you. Add another player to Gronk and suddenly Danny Amendola is there.

It’s not a murderers row of receivers, no, but Brady utilizes them very well.

The Colts also lack a run game—no I don’t expect Boom Herron to blow up the Patriots—and aside from TY Hilton, I don’t love the receiving options.

Again, I refuse to count out Luck finding a way to put his team in position to win, but against Brady? I don’t think it sticks.