Comparing the Packers' 2014 Defense to the Championship Defense of 2010

Aaron Rodgers thinks the Packers defense is playing like the one from 2010. Is he at all right?

Packers linebacker Clay Matthews pressures Panthers quarterback Cam Newton by Benny Sieu—USA TODAY Sports.

Packers linebacker Clay Matthews pressures Panthers quarterback Cam Newton by Benny Sieu—USA TODAY Sports.

Aaron Rodgers claimed Sunday that the defense of the Green Bay Packers was performing at near 2010 levels, and the numbers suggest his estimation isn't too far off.

"Our defense is playing, I would say, kind of like the 2010 season," Rodgers said. "They are shutting teams down. Doing a good job covering guys, creating turnovers." 

The Packers held the Carolina Panthers, who came into Week 7 fresh off a 37-point effort against the Cincinnati Bengals, to just three points over the first three quarters of Sunday's 38-17 dismantling. 

Through the first seven games, the Packers are allowing 21.0 points per game—putting the defense on pace to give up 336. The 2010 club gave up only 240. The 2014 Packers would have to allow only 93 points over the final nine games, or roughly 10 a contest, to match the 2010 defense. This current defense will allow more than 93 points over the final nine. 

However, the Packers have given up just 17.4 over the last five weeks, which is much closer to the 15.0-point rate the 2010 club allowed over a full season. 

While points remain the most important tool for judging a defense, it's not the end-all for meaningful statistics (unless you're Mike McCarthy, in which no meaningful statistic exists).

A few of the more intriguing comparables (regular-season only):

--The 2010 defense allowed 5.1 yards per play. The 2014 defense is at 5.2. 

--The 2010 defense had 12 takeaways after seven games and 32 for the season. The 2014 defense has 14, and is on pace for 32.  

--The 2010 defense finished with 24 interceptions. The 2014 defense is on pace for almost 23. 

--The 2010 defense allowed an NFL-best opposing quarterback rating of 67.2. The 2014 defense is currently first in the NFL at 74.0.

--The 2010 defense allowed 3,107 passing yards and 16 passing touchdowns. The 2014 defense is on track to allow 3,437 passing yards and 20 passing touchdowns. 

--The 2010 defense was run on 395 times at 4.6 yards per attempt. The 2014 defense is on pace to be run on 516 times at 4.6 yards per attempt. 

--The 2010 defense allowed only two 300-yard passers. The 2014 defense has not allowed one. 

--The 2010 defense had a takeaway in 14 of 16 games. The 2014 defense has at least one in every game so far. 

--The 2010 defense had nine games with at least two takeaways. The 2014 defense is on pace to have nine. 

--The 2010 defense had 261 total quarterback disruptions. The 2014 defense is on pace for 299. 

--The 2010 defense defended 86 passes and forced 14 fumbles. The 2014 defense is on track to defend 93 and force 11. 

--The 2010 defense allowed 296 completions. The 2014 defense is on pace to allow 329. 

--The 2010 defense ranked fifth in passing yards, fourth in passing touchdowns, second in interceptions and third in net yards per passing attempt. The 2014 defense ranks sixth in passing yards, fifth in passing touchdowns, second in interceptions and fourth in net yards per passing attempt. 

That is a big enough list of comparables to consider the 2014 defense at least somewhat similar to the one of 2010. This year's club has clearly caused turnovers and played disruptively against the pass, much like Dom Capers' unit four years ago. 

The biggest statistical differences between the two can be found in points allowed, total plays, first downs, sacks, total rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. 

Of course, the 2014 defense still has nine more regular-season games to play, including matchups with Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, Tom Brady, Nick Foles, Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford. And the 2010 defense stamped its place among the best of recent memory with a dominant run through the postseason. This discussion will be better served much further down the road. 

However, the numbers suggest that, through seven games, it's not completely unfair to compare the two defenses. 

 

Zach Kruse contributes to Cheesehead TV. He is also the Lead Writer for the NFC North at Bleacher Report. You can reach him on Twitter @zachkruse2 or by email at [email protected].

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Comments (23)

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TarynsEyes's picture

October 21, 2014 at 09:51 am

"However, the numbers suggest that, through seven games, it's not completely unfair to compare the two defenses."

Yes it is and at this moment is an insult to the play of the 2010 defense regardless of how one portrays the stats.

"The 2010 defense was run on 395 times at 4.6 yards per attempt. The 2014 defense is on pace to be run on 516 times at 4.6 yards per attempt. "

As one example,how is being run on 120 more times for the same average close..that comes out to 4 games of 30 attempts or 3 games at 40 attempts..not even close.

This defense appears to be turning the corner but without doing an opponent strength match up for each season,this numbers do not tell the truth though one can assume such if desires.

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PBR's picture

October 21, 2014 at 03:09 pm

Not sure what you're arguing with the whole attempts thing. It just means we are getting run on more and it's most likely a function of the read option being used by a lot of teams.

I think it's pretty spot on to say we are comparable to that defense. The stats provided in the article certainly back that statement up. If you're talking about breaking down game by game, season by season, you've got too much time on your hands.

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White92's picture

October 21, 2014 at 03:16 pm

Agreed. The attempts thing may also be due to the fact the Packers have fallen behind in some games (Seattle, Jets, Detroit) and teams were trying to shorten the game. As has been mentioned vs Chicago, Capers was scheming to stop the pass and played a lot of nickel, which we know is vulnerable to the run.

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RCPackerFan's picture

October 21, 2014 at 11:06 am

I really like where the defense is and the fact that they still have potential to keep getting better. They are starting to find themselves and figure out what they are good at.

I love how Capers has figured out how to best use his players. This is the first time in a while that Capers feels in tune with his players and what his players strengths are and using those strengths to their advantage.
For example. Using the NASCAR package gets the 4 best pass rushers on the field at one time.

Right now the Secondary has to be considered one of the best in the league. CB's have been great, the Safety's have been very good.
Clinton-Dix is for real. He has made the defense better. His play has allowed Burnett to do what he does best and that's playing in the box. And when there was a missed tackle or missed assignment Clinton-Dix has been able to come up and get the stop. That Lamar Miller tackle last week was sensational. In the last few years we have seen our safety's missing that tackle way to often.
While Clinton-Dix has been everything that we could hope for, the other Safety's have been very good as well. Hyde has played well and Richardson was used on that 4th and 1 and got the stop.

The one thing I would like to see more though is them using Richardson more. Possibly as a Nickel ILB/S tweener type of role. I think he could be a good effective player against TE's. He has the size, speed, and physicality that could be effective against them.

Its a good problem to have when you have to find ways to get players onto the field.

I really like the way our defense has been playing, and look forward to watch them get better.

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Bohj's picture

October 21, 2014 at 04:53 pm

"I love how Capers has figured out how to best use his players."

I'm not sure the term "figured out" is fair to Capers. He has repeatedly been hamstrung by crazy injury bugs for the last few years.

Example: Long stretches without
- Perry
- Neal
- Matthews
- Hayward
- House
- Richardson
- Jolly
- And I'm sure more I'm blanking on

That's a solid group to get back (minus Jolly). And then add HaHa to that group. That's 7 contributors to the D this year that we've been sorely missing or lacking for about two years. (I know Hayward was there 2 years ago) But still. This has been Capers finest roster since 2010.

I imagine our run D would be eons ahead if Raji started the season anchoring that Nose Tackle spot. That would have been absolutely amazing to witness. Good for Guion to get stronger as the season goes.

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Packer_Pete's picture

October 21, 2014 at 11:26 am

Let's not forget that seemingly every year the rules or emphasis on rules change in a way that makes more scoring and bigger plays more likely. So comparing teams or defenses several years apart is not always easy or fair. At the same time, the 2014 D seems to turn the corner and get better. That's all we can ask for. I don't care whether they compare well against the 2010 D, as long as the results are there. Plus, maybe the 2014 Os they play against are better than the 2010 Os playing the 2010 D back in the day.

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lucky953's picture

October 21, 2014 at 12:17 pm

Just want to add (knock on wood), the Packers have had far fewer season-ending injuries this year. IF they continue to stay relatively healthy, the defensive upside is very exciting.

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Paul Ott Carruth's picture

October 21, 2014 at 12:26 pm

Football is not a linear sport. It's not as simple as saying, "if A then B." For example, baseball is very linear. The best way to increase your chances of winning is by scoring runs and holding the other team to fewer runs. Pretty obvious. Here's the thing....at no point in a baseball game when a team is up to bat are they thinking "hey, we're up by 5 scores in the bottom of the 8th so we don't really need to try and score any more runs." Why? Because there is no time element to baseball. The game is over when the last of the 3 outs are completed and one team has more runs, whether that takes 9 innings or 14. A game could be 3 hours or 4 hours. Football games don't work that way. You 60 minute regulation and possibly overtime.
The Packers were up considerably on the Panthers and Vikings. Offensive and defensive game plans and personnel use changes drastically given various situations. The Packers gave up two TDs in the second half to Carolina and one to Minnesota. For all intents and purposes, these games were in the bag. I'd be willing to bet that McCarthy was beginning to think 4 minute offense much sooner than 4 minutes left in the 4th. Likewise, he made personnel changes which changes production efficiency. Capers made personnel adjustments too and wasn't quite as aggressive against Carolina and Minnesota for much of the 2nd half. Again, this plays in to a unit’s efficiency.
The point is when comparing stats you can't just look at aggregate numbers. For instance, if you look at Rodger’s passing yards against Minnesota you could argue he wasn't “on.” But we all know that wasn't the case. Game to game, situation to situation is different. How a team decides to attack, when to attack and who to attack with all factor in to statistics. I would highly doubt that the defense was willing to give up 200+ rushing yards to Chicago yet I’d be willing to bet the defensive game plan was to lock down on Marshall and Jeffery and take their chances with Forte and Bennett. The Packers were not willing to give up the big play in the vertical game and they didn’t. Could it have cost them? Sure. But that was the plan and it worked. All 200 yards are not just a reflection of poor run defense. It’s also a reflection of defensive approach. Conversely, the Packers shut down the backfield of Johnson and Ivory yet gave up some big plays in the passing game. The Packers could have easily lost that game as well. They took the approach that a 2nd year QB was going to have to beat them….and he almost did. Does that mean the pass defense, as a whole, is horrible? Not in the least, yet all these numbers get wrapped up in the aggregate and that’s what sports talk wonks talk about. If they really wanted to do solid statistical analysis they would consider personnel, coverage, fronts, etc. They would look at 3rd down efficiency, not just in totality, but in the context of a specific game, taking in to account the quarter, score, personnel, etc. We can talk ad nausea about stats and rankings and so on and so forth, but these types of numbers don’t explain enough. They explain next to nothing when trying to compare from season to season. Even looking at points allowed vs. points forwarded doesn't paint a clean picture. If the Packers wanted to shut down keep the Vikings or Panthers out of the end zone I’m quite sure they could have increased their chances playing differently and with different personnel. Yet these points get figured in to the aggregate and don’t really show how dominant the defensive performances were. It gets lost in the aggregate.

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Evan's picture

October 21, 2014 at 12:38 pm

Football is a flat circle.

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Bearmeat's picture

October 21, 2014 at 12:44 pm

Great points POC.

Let's take this into context: GB has not faced an elite passer yet. They will in the next few weeks. And while the run D has gotten considerably better from week 1 to now, it's still not where the 2010 D was. Nor, for that matter, is the team speed (and that is not going to change).

I would really like to see Richardson in at ILB on 3rd down as well as the dime LB and in passing situations (or against passing teams in general) as well. However, this causes a problem. Hawk's best attribute is the mental part of the defense. He's got the radio in his helmet too. So you can't take him out unless you give the radio to.. who? Burnett? I don't think so. It can't be CM3 - he doesn't play all the snaps. Tramon? Maybe.

This defense BADLY needs a quality set of ILBs. It'll never be dominant like the 2010 version was unless a heretofore unseen depth player steps up at ILB (like Bishop did in 2010).

But if the defense continues giving up 21 or less over the next month to the elite passing attacks GB is going to face (NO, NE, CHI) then yes.. this is potentially a super bowl team.

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Evan's picture

October 21, 2014 at 01:06 pm

I read somewhere that Richardson was being used like that -- coming in on passing downs in sort of a hybrid role -- in the Panthers game.

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Bohj's picture

October 21, 2014 at 05:01 pm

I have a feeling that our QB pressure will be even more amazing against these "elite" passers. We have had countless opportunities to sack quarterbacks this year and they have somehow escaped due to elusiveness and speed (see Cam Newton, Geno Smith, and Russell Wilson). These pocket passers will not escape nearly as much. Wouldn't be surprised to see us do super well from here on out.

Secondary is playing amazing. Pass rushers are disrupting like every play (with only 4 rushers). Mark my words: we will feast on these next QBs.

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PackerBacker's picture

October 21, 2014 at 02:57 pm

I completely agree.

That's why it drove me nuts last week when they were talking on G&G Today about the stat about Rodgers not having any wins when the team was down by more than 9 in the 4th quarter.

First of all, what a complete BS stat. Talk about randomly picking numbers.

Second, that is absolutely NOT a QB stat. That is not a player stat. That is only MAYBE a coaching/management stat. How can you possibly say that is a viable stat? What if the D gave up a late touchdown after AR scored? What if Crosby missed a FG to win? How can you possibly lay that all on the QB? The basis for the debate was completely bogus.

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Packer_Pete's picture

October 21, 2014 at 04:26 pm

good points POC. Now, if you had to compare the Ds of 2010 and 2014, which one is better? Or are they similarly good? Maybe I should phrase the question differently. If you had to play with one of those 2 Ds as a coach, which one would you take?

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Paul Ott Carruth's picture

October 21, 2014 at 06:20 pm

Each brings a different dimension but if you look at it from a squad by squad strength/weakness I would say the following:
CB: I would take the 2014 unit over 2010 because there is more quality depth. You have a more experienced Shields and Hayward is playing the slot quite well. Woodson is clearly the better slot defender but overall depth is better with this squad when you factor in House on the edge. Not much drop off from starter to back-up
FS/SS: 2010 over 2014 but only slightly. Collins developed in to an All-Pro caliber safety. Peprah was serviceable. I believe depth will prove to be better with the 2014 squad. I indicated that if he was available the Packers should take Ha-Ha….even over Shazier, Mosely and Pryor. Is Ha-Ha at the level of Collins? Not yet……but barring injury…..he’ll be better. He has better instincts, range and tackling ability than Collins did at this stage of development. You rarely see him out of position. He’s he middle field safety the Packers have been missing for nearly 4 years. Richardson is a thumper that can move. Intrigued with what he can do. If he can stay healthy I think he’s a wild card. Hyde is versatile as well.
ILB: 2010 over 2014. Again….slightly and only because of Bishop’s play and the fact that the current squad is inexperienced….but then again, so was Bishop. Lattimore is currently the best ILB on the team. He can cover and his run fits have improved. Jones is not an ILB. Hawk is Hawk. What you see is what you get. I believe Led Zepplin had a song or album entitled “The Song Remains the Same?” Pretty much sums up Hawk. This could be considered a push.
OLB: 2014….by a wide margin. Peppers vs. Walden/Zombo? I think you get the picture. Matthews is Matthews. Health will always be a concern but he’s disruptive. Sacks are great. QB hits and collapsing the pocket on a consistent basis are better. He’s doing that. In fact, all 4 are doing that with regularity. Neal and Perry are doing a fantastic job. This group is certainly more versatile than anything they’ve ever had in Green Bay. Not sure if anyone has noticed but all four have been on the field on passing downs. It’s almost a modified version of the Psycho Package with Peppers serving as that 1 defensive lineman….only this time he might be coming or dropping. You couldn’t really disguise that too much with Jenkins. Not sure what Capers calls this package but it is interesting.
DT/DE : 2010 over 2014….slightly. Pickett, Jenkins, and Raji were space eaters. Daniels, Guion and Jones (when healthy) are more 1 gap penetrators. Boyd and Robinson fit the space eater role. I think this year’s squad has more diversity in skill set.

In terms of scheme, I see Capers doing much of what he did in 2010 when he had a competent secondary and guys to create pressure up front. I’m sure we’ll see more firezones and cat pressures as the season progresses. I think the ILB position is the biggest liability on the unit when viewed from a purely personnel standpoint. Some may argue that we should have sought to trade up to get Shazier or Mosely but this is a passing league. If you can throw the ball and defend the ball when it is in the air you can go a long way. The Packers have that. They have guys who can pressure the pocket. Would it be great to a have a Willis or Bowman in the middle? Absolutely. But without competent backend players (safety) linebackers become cancelled. The play of Dix, in my opinion, has been the biggest difference. I said going in to the draft he would be the best safety and he’s clearly been that thus far. Dom’s system requires a middle safety that can cover from sideline to sideline when playing single high looks. Dix did this with regularity at Alabama in Saban’s system. Saban’s top priority has always been to defend the middle of the field so you most often see Alabama in single high looks. That’s why I believed Dix was the most NFL ready safety and best fit for Green Bay. I don’t know how it will all play out but this defense, while not dominant, has the pieces to compete. Yes, they’ve played well against Stafford and the Lions offense (minus the run at the end) but Sunday will be the first true test against one of the best in the league on their turf. This will be a true litmus test for the secondary.

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Packer_Pete's picture

October 22, 2014 at 06:45 am

thanks POC. Great insight!

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Otto's picture

October 22, 2014 at 11:20 pm

POC: the un-Cow.

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White92's picture

October 21, 2014 at 03:09 pm

I really have been tempering my enthusiasm regarding this defense. They look pretty good when playing with the lead and the opposition somewhat abandons the run, but most defenses will.

Let's see what happens vs a elite QB on the road. Put up a good game this week and I may become a believer.

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RCPackerFan's picture

October 21, 2014 at 03:32 pm

The Packers have already done that. They played well against Detroit in Detroit. They only gave up 10 points in that game. The offense gave up 9.

They pretty much shut down the Lions offense. Lions offense didn't beat the Packers. Lions defense beat the Packers.
Stafford is considered elite by some and very good by pretty much everyone else. And Detroit has a very good offense. To go in their house and hold them to 10 points, that is a very good thing.

I agree this week will be a test because the Saints in their dome are a very difficult team to beat.

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jmac34's picture

October 22, 2014 at 11:16 am

Detroit's offense isn't that great this year. Their defense has won them their games this year.

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Lphill's picture

October 21, 2014 at 03:36 pm

Mike Pennel is going to be a big part of this defense, even Raji knows it and is teaching him, defense overall improving game to game , I guess they are becoming more and more comfortable with eachother,what matters in the end is points scored, no need to compare to 2010 we had a few nail biter's , different players, different schemes as well as stricter penalties to deal with that 2010 didn't have.

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HankScorpio's picture

October 21, 2014 at 06:52 pm

What the numbers suggest to me is that the 2010 defense is definitely a step above the 2014 unit. That was a really productive group that did as much to win that SB as the offense,

But it's a lot closer than I expected in August. I am starting to believe that this year's team has the defensive firepower to make a January run. They are making big plays on pass defense and that's a huge piece to the puzzle. If they can get to January reasonably healthy, I'll be very excited to see how it unfolds.

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Lphill's picture

October 22, 2014 at 04:27 pm

great article from Peter King on SI , he says the Packers defense will continue to improve game by game, have the best man to man corners a great pass rush rotation, and a future star in Ha Ha, Capers is finding his way with rotations that needed a few games to iron out, he also mentions that the Cowboys are not as good as you would think and that once teams stop the cowboys run game its all over. he feels the Pack will be the NFC favorite .

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