College Football Weekend Preview: Bowl Eligibility & Jobs on the Line

The ranked teams will get their share of attention but coaching jobs and bowl eligibility are at stake in the Territorial Cup and Land of Lincoln showdowns.

The rivalry games will get the bulk of the attention for what most of college football is the final week of the regular season, but there's still plenty of meaningful games being played by those team scrapping and clawing their way to bowl-game eligibility.

There are 16 five-win teams in action this weekend looking for that all-important sixth victory to qualify for a bowl (not including transitioning Old Dominion).

Two games in particular, both matching 5-6 squads, make for intriguing games, partially because of the bowl factor, partially because they're rivalry games and partially due to impact they might have on the job status of the head coaches involved.

The CFWP provides thumbnail previews...

 

Virginia Tech at Virginia, 7:00 p.m. CT Friday on ESPN

Rivalry: Commonwealth Cup

Coaching impact: Both fanbases are frustrated with underachieving teams. If Virginia doesn't win, Mike London won't be sticking around in Charlottesville, and it's no guarantee he'll stay even with a victory.

Virginia Tech, meanwhile, won't be able to fire a coaching legend Frank Beamer. But Beamer might feel forced into calling 2015 a farewell tour.

Prediction: The Hokies may not be able to muster much offense, but the defense led by cornerback Kendall Fuller will hold the Cavaliers to even less. 14-10, Enter Sandman.

 

Illinois at Northwestern, 11:00 a.m. Saturday on ESPNU

Rivalry: Land of Lincoln Trophy

Coaching impact: Pat Fitzgerald's job is most likely safe for at least one more year, but if Northwestern loses, the football program will be on high alert after consecutive sub-.500 seasons.

Tim Beckman may have improved Illinois' win total from two in his first year, four in year two and five already in 2014, but unless the end of the season comes with a bowl appearance, the Illini may not feel like progress is happening fast enough.

Prediction: Talented Wildcats freshman running back Justin Jackson will see success against an Illinois run defense ranking last in the Big Ten. 23-21, Hail to Purple.

 

Where College GameDay Is At

When No. 1 Alabama (10-1) hosts No. 15 Auburn (8-3) at 6:45 p.m. on Saturday, from the site of ESPN's pregame show, it won't match the excitement of last year's meeting, which may have been the best game in college football history.

But that doesn't mean it can't be an exciting contest. There's still plenty at stake with Alabama being a win away from appearing in SEC championship game, and Auburn will relish the opportunity to perhaps spoil Alabama's national-title chances.

In order for the Tigers to hang with the Crimson Tide, they'll have to eliminate the turnovers that have plagued them in their three losses this season.

As long as quarterback Nick Marshall and running back Cameron Artis-Payne can avoid fumbles, the Auburn running game should at least be respectable.

The more difficult job for Marshall is avoiding turnoves passing the football.

Coming into the season, the Alabama secondary, apart from safety Landon Colins, was considered one of the team's weaknesses. But in beating previously undefeated Mississippi State two weeks ago, the Tide defensive backfield took its play up a notch with interceptions by safety Nick Perry and cornerback Cyrus Jones in addition to Collins.

Facing a mediocre Auburn unit that ranks ninth in the SEC in both total (375.0 ypg) and scoring (23.5 ppg) defense, all Alabama has to do is be its same efficient self its been most of the season.

This isn't a unit the caliber of Mississippi's defense, the only team Alabama lost to this season. Like his counterpart on the other sideline, all Tide quarterback Blake Sims has to do is avoid turnovers and let his playmakers—like Amari Cooper and T.J. Yeldon—do the damage.

Prediction: An Alabama defensive front seven without a lot of star power will play well as a unit and force Auburn into give the football back to the Tide, whether through turnovers or punts. 34-20, Alabama.

 

The Wisconsin Connection

For the first time in years, perhaps decades, there's more on the line than just Paul Bunyan's Axe for this year's meeting between the No. 14 Wisconsin Badgers (9-2) and No. 18 Minnesota Gophers (8-3), televised on the Big Ten Network at 2:30 p.m.

Nothing against the Axe, which is one of the best trophy games in all of college football, but the stakes were raised when it was learned the winner Saturday's game will represent the Big Ten West division in the conference championship game the following weekend to face Ohio State, who has already wrapped up the East.

One of the big storylines entering the oldest rivalry game in FBS is a match-up of two of the best running backs in the Big Ten.

Despite Melvin Gordon's single-game FBS rushing record lasting only one week, broken by Oklahoma freshman Samaje Perine, the Badgers running back remains one of the top rushing threats in all of the NCAA.

Minnesota's David Cobb is not to be overlooked. Probably Minnesota's best senior draft prospect, Cobb needs only 35 yards to break the Gophers' single-season rushing record of 1,464 yards set by Laurence Maroney in 2005.

Cobb did, however, suffer a hamstring injury in last week's win over Nebraska, putting his status in question for the upcoming game against the Badgers.

Wisconsin also has to respect the running ability of Minnesota quarterback Mitch Leidner, who operates the read-option and is the team's second-leading rusher.

Passing the football is not Leidner's forte, completing just 51.1 percent of his passes, which is good news for a Badgers defense that looked vulnerable last week against Iowa quarterback Jake Rudock.

One of the best ways for the Gophers to hang with the Badgers in a tough road environment at Camp Randall is to expose a Wisconsin secondary that's suspect outside of safety Michael Caputo.

Prediction: Minnesota will hang with Wisconsin for a half before its defense gets worn down by Rob Havenstein and the rest of the Badgers offensive line. 35-14, On Wisconsin.

 

What Happened Before Saturday

Texas came into the Thanksgiving day game against No. 5 TCU primed for an upset in front of a home crowd, winning their last three games and four of their last five, to turn things around under first-year head coach Charlie Strong.

In their bid to qualify for the college football playoff, however, the Horned Frogs avoided the pitfall and controlled the game from beginning to end, winning 48-10.

The Gary Patterson-led defense reached levels of old dominance when they forced six turnovers, and frustrated Longhorns quarterback Tyrone Swoopes all game long.

Swoopes threw four interceptions, was sacked four times and had a fumble returned for a touchdown on one of the sacks.

By winning, TCU stayed in contention for one of the spots in the playoff but finds itself on the outside looking in, ranked fifth in the country and only four bids to go around.

Just one game remains for the Horned Frogs, the season finale against last-place Iowa State, who has a history of pulling off big upsets.

TCU can only hope a win against the Cyclones and at least a share of the Big 12 championship will be enough to leap-frog Mississippi State to gain entrance to a shot at the national championship.

 

Brian Carriveau is the author of the book "It's Just a Game: Big League Drama in Small Town America," and editor at Cheesehead TV and its "Pro Football Draft Preview." To contact Brian, email [email protected].

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Turophile's picture

November 28, 2014 at 02:02 pm

I want to see Miami Pittsburgh, because Miami has a ton of NFL prospects and has a self-imposed ban on playing a bowl game. Even Pittsburgh has a first round prospect in T.J.Clemmings. For the Packers I'd really like to see how Miami ILB Perryman does - hope he a Borland clone - he should be there some way into round 2.

Miami also have TE Walford, who could go anywhere from high round 2 to low 3, RB Johnson (2/3) OT Ereck Flowers (maybe 3rd), CB Gunter, DE Chickillo, WR Dorsett (all 4th/5th), plus a couple of 6th to FA guys.

Notre Dame vs TCU is another game with plenty of draft prospects (not up to some already played games like Alabama/LSU game, but plenty).

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