Key Lessons For Packers From Championship Games
Especially when it comes to replacing Joe Barry
Remember mood rings? For those too young, they changed color on your finger depending on your emotions in the moment. A fad in the 70s, you can still get one if you’re so inclined, complete with color decoding chart!
I thought of those rings as I watched the conference championship games Sunday. As my conflicted feelings swung wildly, I wondered whether the ring, if I’d been wearing one, would overheat and explode, after which I’d see if Jason Pierre-Paul wanted to hang out.
As a Packer fan I couldn’t root for either Detroit or San Francisco with any conviction. Forty Niner playoff memories are too painful, and I didn’t want the Lions enjoying any more success than they’ve had this year, though I did have pangs of pity for their long-suffering fans. And of course I kept thinking, it coulda been Green Bay in this game, it shoulda been Green Bay in this game, it woulda been Green Bay in this game if only …
So I tried to focus on what could be learned from these games, for the Packers and the rest of us as we head into the most important off-season in quite some time:
— The notion that this was a one-and-done opportunity for the Lions to get to the Super Bowl is ridiculous. This is a thoughtfully built, talented and motivated roster and coaching staff that is going to be a force for awhile, whether or not it loses its offensive coordinator (likely becoming HC in Washington) and a few other pieces. Dan Campbell is an excellent coach whose post-game comments simply acknowledged how hard it is to get to the big dance. They’ll be banging on the door plenty more.
The Packers and their fans have to accept the new reality that this team no longer owns the NFC North, and that it will be a dogfight for the foreseeable future. The Lions will upgrade their pass defense and be even more dangerous. The Bears have a den full of draft capital and cap space, and took some significant steps forward this year. Shane Waldron is an upgrade at offensive coordinator, and there is legitimate talent sprinkled throughout the roster, particularly on defense. And they will have Caleb Williams, or Justin Fields plus yet another boat full of draft picks. Yeah, it’s fun to say they still suck, but it’s old news. The Vikings are a question mark at this stage, yet there is a world in which the North produces three playoff teams. The Packers need to make sure they aren't left standing when the music stops, and pay special attention to beating division rivals. Not taking them seriously, on the field and off, is a quick way to an early exit.
— Watching the Ravens implode against Kansas City brought a different set of emotions. As much admiration as I have for Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, I’m over them owning the post-season the way the Patriots did for years, so I was hard in Baltimore’s corner. And they blew it, particularly on offense. For reasons that remain inexplicable, the Ravens abandoned the run despite early success. How bad was it? As a team the Ravens had a total of 16 carries, half of which were by Lamar Jackson. The running backs had six carries for 23 yards. Six! Combine that with a sub-par performance from Jackson and Zay Flowers’ fumble and you had disaster.
The Packers had a few games during the season when they stopped running early and never went back to it. They seemed to learn their lesson as the season went on, aided by a gelling offensive line and Aaron Jones getting healthy, but Sunday was a reminder of how essential a strong run game is, and that the Packers need to invest in it this off season. Jones doesn’t stay healthy for 17 games, while both he and AJ Dillon could be cap casualties. Brian Gutekunst and his staff need to find a couple of mid-round draft gems, CFLers or unexpected castoffs from other teams, because the Patrick Taylors and Emanuel Wilsons of the world are not the answer.
Lastly, and most top of mind at the moment, was watching Baltimore’s defense. Yes, the Ravens lost, but they held Kansas City to 17 points, which should have been more than sufficient had the offense been competent and didn’t have three turnovers. It felt like the Chiefs were owning them at times because time of possession was lopsided, but KC deployed a hyper-short game plan that ate clock and kept Jackson off the field. Still, Mike Macdonald’s D was effective. The Chiefs gained only 2.8 yards per rush, for at total of 89 yards — eight more than the Ravens — on twice the number of carries.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs had only 230 yards through the air, and 319 total yards. Unfortunately for the Ravens, Mahomes and Kelce were magic when it counted, and in other paranormal news, MVS became a clutch receiver.
All this is important because Baltimore had the best defense in the league all season, and it behooves Matt LaFleur to take a close look at the ranks of their assistant coaches to replace Joe Barry. Macdonald doesn’t come from the Fangio tree, but his scheme uses pieces of it. Macdonald prioritizes causing confusion, with elaborate post-snap movement to and from the line of scrimmage, disguised blitz packages and press coverage. It has proved highly successful.
Macdonald is likely getting Seattle’s head coaching job, so some of his assistants might follow him or get promoted in Baltimore, but there are at least three worth interviewing. I’ve been hoping Matt LaFleur has been waiting to do so, and happy to see that two of them — Zach Orr and Dennard Wilson — are now reportedly in the mix. Orr, who I mentioned last week as an intriguing up and comer, is Baltimore’s linebackers coach and had a big hand in helping Patrick Queen have a breakout year. Linebacker play is critical to slowing modern offenses. Wilson coaches the secondary, and both position groups would benefit from better coaching. Both men are also high-energy motivators.
Getting the DC pick right could make or break Green Bay in 2024-25. Regardless of who gets the job, it’s a great sign LaFleur is looking at Baltimore. GPG.
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Jonathan Krim grew up in New York but got hooked on the Packers — and on hating the Cowboys — watching the Ice Bowl as a young child. He blames bouts of unhappiness in his late teens on Dan Devine. A journalist for several decades who now lives in California, he enjoys trafficking in obscure cultural references, lame dad jokes and occasionally preposterous takes. Jonathan is a Packers shareholder, and insists on kraut with his brats. You can follow Jonathan on twitter at @Jkrim.
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Comments (24)
Minniman
January 30, 2024 at 03:20 pm
Lesson 1: Expect that your playoff opponent will be competent on both sides of the ball.
Lesson 2: Expect them to not lay down and die if they fall behind early on the scoreboard.
Lesson 3: Sometimes it's OK to take the 3 points.
Lesson 4: Being aggressive does not mean being cavalier (or reckless)
Lesson 5: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics" cross-reference the exalted statistics with what your eyes also tell you.
Lesson 6: Know your field position and down markers - sometimes you need to stop that man cold.
Postscript: I personally welcome a competitive NFC North division. Mental toughness and execution wins SB's, not luck.
splitpea1
January 30, 2024 at 03:39 pm
Notes:
Ben Johnson is staying with the Lions...A lot of people are enamored with Dan Campbell's aggressive style of coaching, but he takes chances he doesn't need to take. He would drive me crazy if he were the Packers HC; I'll take MLF, providing he hires the right DC this time.
Ravens defensive coaches would logically be a hot commodity right now, but the other half of the equation is acquiring Ravens-type players. That means guys who can diagnose plays, funnel ball carriers into their teammates, and bring them down immediately. Gute, you're on the clock...and use any free money to sign a quality safety (that means outside the organization!).
I was rooting for the Lions because I thought they had a legitimate chance to win, unlike the last time they made it to the NFCCG against the Redskins. I admit to liking a lot of their players like Hutchinson, Branch, and St. Brown. It would have also been nice to have a "fresh" Super Bowl instead of a rematch.
The Ravens had one of the worst offensive game plans I've ever seen against the Chiefs; they played to the defense's strengths instead of their weaknesses. Spags had to be loving it with few handoffs to running backs and long-developing pass plays. Just dumb, a terrible way to throw a very successful season away.
Hey, if the other NFC North teams improve, so be it. Good competition makes everyone better. For right now, the Lions are our stiffest competition, and that second game against them proved that we're right there with them. It didn't take long for the Packers to dust themselves off, get up off the mat, and deliver a solid counterpunch. It could be the makings of refreshed, top-level rivalry that we can all look forward to. And we've got the edge at quarterback, possibly for a long time.
Tundraboy
January 30, 2024 at 11:42 pm
Superb observations. Enjoyed your thoughtful well reasoned analysis.
canadapacker
January 30, 2024 at 03:54 pm
I have been posting that we need to select a new breed of linebackers - we cannot have the old style of guys who make a lot of tackles but downfield after first downs are made. The new breed is a multiple level player - fast enough to guard the new tight end positions and stop those zone reads and flips to the receivers circling through the backfield and still be able to get to the quarterback and stop the run. Unfortunately in my opinion Quay is best suited to the outside - not tough/strong enough inside - but a good piece to our D nonetheless. So we need to be picking guys in the higher rounds to fill this void and maybe the Dback void.
Now on the Lions - they will be good and they will be as competitive as Goff allows them too - but there is a reason that he was traded and he can regress pretty fast - I like our chances as we have a pretty high chance at being stable at the QB position. Now if the Vikes move on from Cousins = or even if they resign him -( he will want big bucks as he always does) and if the Bears continue their revolving QB door - then it will be a few years of their development. Few teams can do what the Texans did with a high QB draft pick in year 1 . I am most worried if the Bears decide to stick with Fields and upgrade their team around him. He can be a mini-version of Lamar with speed - if he would only learn to pass and have the weapons.
WestCoastPackerBacker
January 31, 2024 at 02:12 pm
If only those LBs were easy to find, picking late in the first and later rounds.
MooPack
January 30, 2024 at 04:12 pm
Grab a Raven Def Asst. as new DC.
Dictate...That's damn right!
MooPack
January 30, 2024 at 04:14 pm
https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/lafleurs-three-biggest-goals-for-new...
GoldZone
January 30, 2024 at 04:31 pm
MLF needs to interview Brendan Daly of the Kansas City Chiefs. He has a very strong NFL background. He has coached with Spagnuolo for 5 years on the D'Line and Linebackers. He has also coached with the New England Patriots for 4 years. The Chiefs scheme is a pressure defense just as I believe all of us fans are hungry to see.
Also has anyone heard from Green and Gold, I have not seen him post all season?
GPG
GoldZone
January 30, 2024 at 04:32 pm
MLF needs to interview Brendan Daly of the Kansas City Chiefs. He has a very strong NFL background. He has coached with Spagnuolo for 5 years on the Defensive Line and Linebackers. He has also coached with the New England Patriots for 4 years. The Chiefs scheme is a pressure defense just as I believe all of us fans are hungry to see.
Also has anyone heard from Green and Gold, I have not seen him post all season?
GPG
Qoojo
January 30, 2024 at 04:55 pm
I feel the main difference was the defense not taking advantage of easy TO opportunities. One was a pick-6.
Then another learning point was for Love and the INTs. You have to be more careful in the post season. He easy misses are just part of life as QB.
Leatherhead
January 30, 2024 at 04:58 pm
The notion that the Lions have stopped being the Lions, and that this isn't the Packers division, is not founded on much, IMO. In my best Darth Vader voice : I find your lack of faith....disturbing.
You can talk about how well constructed Detroit's roster is and how the great Dan Campbell has thrown off 50 years of sucktitude all you want. Here's some facts about the mighty 2023 Lions.
They had the worst defense in the division (because defense wins Championships) and it totally collapsed against SF. They're tough on the run, poor against the pass, and give up more points than most of the teams in the league.
They had a top offense. However you want to measure it, they moved the ball well in the air and on the ground, so the blocking was good and they executed. They hit 30 about half the time and hit 40 3 times (that's impressive) and were only held under 20 three times (all losses).
And then this offense didn't come out of the locker room in the 2nd half. They didn't add a couple of scores in the 2nd half. They didn't put these guys away. They never do. Even this year, when they had a great offense, it just didn't do anything when the win was there for the taking.
Next year, with a better Packers team and a better Bears team, I think Detroit is probably not going to get 12 wins again. Not with a first place schedule. If they make the playoffs, they won't advance. They've reached a historical apex, and now it's time that the Law of Averages asserts itself.
I learned this from old men who used church keys to open cans of Pabst. Never believe in the Lions.
Packerpasty
January 30, 2024 at 05:36 pm
Lions will be tough again, but then theres Goff....solid starting QB but slow as hell and can not pass if moving at all....if he regresses at all they will be in trouble, even if they did keep Johnson the OC..
GregC
January 30, 2024 at 05:57 pm
There's no law of nature that says the Lions can't be a good team. We've seen the White Sox and Cubs win the World Series in recent years. Some franchises are badly managed for decades, but if they get the right people in charge they can turn it around. That may have happened with the Lions, although it's too early to be sure. They certainly seem to have their offense in place for the next few years. The defense is just average, but they can pour some more resources into that side of the ball and possibly improve it significantly. They at least have a few good pieces on defense to build around. It will be interesting to see how it goes for them.
Leatherhead
January 31, 2024 at 05:32 pm
There is no law of nature that says ducks can't be good tree climbers, but they aren't.
I remember when the Lions lost on a last second FG when a kicker missing half a foot nailed the longest FG in NFL history. I thought...that's really unlucky. But in the 50 years since, I have watched them screw the pooch in every conceivable manner. They wasted guys like Sander and Megatron and Stafford and Suh. They hired coaches that were like 'WTF?" They hired Matt Millen.
On the field, it was an unparalleled comedy of errors. The 0-16 team was horrible, but not exceptionally horrible. They had lots of bad teams.
Turning around this franchise is like turning around a meteor hurtling towards the Earth. The technology doesn't exist, and there's too much gravity in Detroit for the "right guy" to turn it around. There is no right guy.
Next year, they're playing a first place schedule and both the Packers and Bears will be better. I think they won't win 12 games, they won't get back to the Championship game, and this will be their apex for the next 20 years or so. Campbell will eventually be fired.
Bitternotsour
January 30, 2024 at 06:00 pm
What you said about the Lions also applies to the Bears. Losing has found its way into their DNA.
It's not just that Lions are facing the law of averages, that particular loss, the way that they collapsed like a slow motion train wreck, that shit leaves a psychic mark. That will hang over them, the players and the coaching staff for the rest of their days.
We honestly should be playing Sunday next, it was right there in our grasp.
Qoojo
January 31, 2024 at 04:25 pm
I've said all year that Dan campbell is an idiot. He makes "aggressive" calls which are really stupid and I knew he would eventually self-destruct in playoffs. How do you not attempt to push score to 3 score game is beyond me.
Leatherhead
January 31, 2024 at 05:04 pm
The list of flash-in-the-pan coaches is long. Everybody likes fiery, but it's not possible to live inside of a volcano. Campbell has to work with a lot of adults and while everybody is happy when you're winning, when it gets rough.....and it always gets rough.....knives will come out when the winning stops.
I'm on record as saying this is the apex, for the Lions and Campbell. Last trip to the Championship game for Detroit Next year, they're playing a first place schedule, and both the Packers and Bears will have improved. They aren't going to win 12 games again.
Campbell gave it a good shot, but he's not enough to win in Detroit. Maybe he'll get a shot elsewhere in a few years, after Detroit fires him. Because that's what they do. That's what they always do.
GregC
January 30, 2024 at 05:48 pm
What was most striking to me from the entire day of football was the Ravens' lack of discipline. They were flagged for several personal fouls, all of which were deserved, plus they had a ridiculous taunting penalty, a fumble into the end zone, and Lamar Jackson heaved the ball into the end zone for an easy interception.
Terrell Suggs came out before the 4th quarter to get everyone fired up. Maybe instead they should've had a psychologist come out and tell the Ravens to calm down. They supposedly have one of the best coaches in the league, yet they looked exactly like a poorly coached team. Unbelievable.
As sick as I am of the Chiefs, I have to admit that they have become deadly efficient at winning playoff games.
Bitternotsour
January 30, 2024 at 06:02 pm
How can a person not like Andy Reid. He's one of our own.
Grandfathered
January 30, 2024 at 07:53 pm
[The Packers and their fans have to accept the new reality that this team no longer owns the NFC North, and that it will be a dogfight for the foreseeable future.]
This season has rejuvenated my love of the Packers and enjoyment of their games. I thinks it's because I had no high expectations for them, and as a result I didn't sweat the losses and rookie mistakes. "Owning the North" seems like a bygone era of Rogers and Favre. I accept and look forward to the better teams in the NFC North and the dogfights.
TKWorldWide
January 30, 2024 at 08:47 pm
Turnovers have long been lauded as a huge factor in which team wins and which team loses. I’m not negating that.
But my NEW thought about what decides games is simply who CATCHES the ball.
Dropped INT’S? (GB?) Ouch!
Dropping “catchable” passes? (Josh Reynolds?) Ouch!
Making spectacular, leaping, defender draped all over on third down catches? Yes!
If I were the Packers personal Santa Claus, EVERY receiver, tight end, running back, linebacker, and defensive back would get their own Jugs machine, and use it year round!
(Oh heck, while we’re at it, the linemen can have one too!)
SinceLombardi
January 30, 2024 at 11:26 pm
Lesson 1.. take the points on the road.. if you do, you probably won’t need lesson 2
Starrbrite
January 31, 2024 at 08:42 am
“and in other paranormal news, MVS became a clutch receiver.” That is excellent Cory—cracked me up.
Dan Campbell is an excellent coach, hmm, don’t know about that? I think he’s a big dufus with a brilliant O-Coord. Johnson is apparently staying with Detroit and Campbell is fortunate he’s doing so.
Brock Purdy—the QB with more second chances than Houdini.
Go Packers!!!
Starrbrite
January 31, 2024 at 08:47 am
Wups—sorry Jonathan—I wrote I mistakenly wrote Cory—couldn’t correct after submitting. I should never post from my phone.