Can Cobb Reclaim His Place as Integral Part of Packers Offense?

The fan favorite wide receiver has seen his production wane in recent seasons. 

Randall Cobb has long been thought of as Green Bay’s number two receiver. His production over the past two seasons indicates otherwise. 
 
In fairness, the designation of No. 2 or No. 3 to a receiver is more a media creation than discernable football fact. It’s not important what number on the depth chart a player has if they’re playing meaningful snaps and contributing to the team’s success. 
 
To that end, Cobb, who will turn 27 before the season starts, still offers value. But as he enters the third year of a four-year, $40 million contract, it would appear that the outstanding production he offered in 2014—with 91 catches, 1,287 yards and 12 touchdowns—will go down as the high mark of his career. 
 
There’s much to like about Cobb, as a competitor and as a person. He never lacks for effort, doesn’t shy away from contact and consistently praises teammates. Cobb checks all of the right boxes as a positive locker room presence and leader. 
 
Cobb the player, however, has become a bit of an enigma. 
 
Pressed into action for all 16 games in 2015, Cobb finished with a disappointing 79 grabs for just 829 yards, good for 10.5 yards per catch and a measly 6.4 yards per target. Last season the YPC figure regressed to 10.2, while Cobb’s yards per target climbed marginally to 7.3.
 
Cobb had just a single 100-yard receiving game during the 2016 regular season, before exploding for 117 yards and three touchdowns in the Wild Card drubbing of the Giants, a game where Jordy Nelson left early with an injury. 
 
Was Cobb’s outburst a product of necessity? He remained productive in the following two playoff games, but where was this player during the regular season? 
 
Aaron Rodgers’ post-game celebration of Cobb’s three scores was effusive. The Packers are a lot better, he argued, when No. 18 is involved. But make no mistake, Davante Adams and even Jared Cook were responsible for more big plays a season ago. It would seem that they were more important to the Packers’ offensive engine than Cobb. 
 
In fact, big plays are largely disappearing from Cobb’s game. 
 
In 2014, Cobb had 24 catches that went for over 20 yards. Combine his 20+ yard efforts from 2015 and ’16, though, and Cobb piled up just 18. He’s always been shifty in short space, but he’s never been a deep threat. Does Cobb’s recent dip in production hint at diminishing physical skills?
 
Another factor to consider: If Jordy Nelson is going to be spending more time in the slot, as the numbers alone certainly make a case for, where does that leave Cobb, who has struggled as a boundary receiver? 
 
If the Packers incorporate more compression sets into their offense, there’s room to squeeze Cobb and Nelson into a bunch. But with a pair of new tight ends, Martellus Bennett and Lance Kendricks, in the mix, one has to imagine that Cobb sees potentially less opportunities in 2017. Davante Adams will see the field more, deservingly, after a breakout season, while Nelson is still the team’s top target. 
 
Cobb is a heady player, a leader and a willing and able blocker—a testament to his grit, as he’s only 5-10 and likely still less than 200 pounds. But with limited effectiveness outside of the slot, and receding production as a big-play receiver, he could become a lost man in Green Bay. 
 
Right now, Cobb is being paid like he’s a No. 1 or No. 2 receiver. The Packers are obviously willing to accommodate that fact in 2017, but does Cobb realistically reach year four in his contract if his production continues to fade?
 
There’s a cold calculus to professional sports. It’s part of the reason Green Bay’s books are consistently clean. If Cobb is indeed let go after this season, we can make sense of it with a quote from The Godfather. As Michael Corleone told his brothers Tom and Sonny, “It’s not personal. It’s strictly business.”
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Comments (43)

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J0hn Denver's Gavel's picture

May 26, 2017 at 12:13 pm

well, he has a 3.25mil dead cap hit next year if released. he'll make 9.5mil if still with the squad next year. I dont foresee a restructuring after this year, either he's here or dropped before next year. we shall see. Im all for seeing him regain his former elite status this year.

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ThxJackVainisi's picture

May 26, 2017 at 12:48 pm

I don't understand why fans bring up dead money when considering the cap consequences of waiving or trading a player. As long as the dead money isn't split into the current year and next year's cap, it doesn't matter. Only the net cap consequences matter. For example, if Cobb were released or traded after this season, the dead money on his contract of $3.25M would indeed be applied to the 2018 cap. BUT his cap number if he remains under his contract would be $12.75M in 2018, so the cap savings would be $9.5M.

IMO David mentioned perhaps the most important reason for Cobb's reduced importance to the offense: Jordy is playing in the slot more and more. If one of the youngsters emerge as a starting boundary receiver, or outside threat, Cobb could struggle for playing time. If the Packers find another outside threat to pair with Adams, with Jordy in the slot, and a deep TE corps, Cobb is no longer a starter. Even his role as a receiver/occasional RB out of the backfield is usurped by Montgomery. If Cobb's impact on the offense is reduced, I don't think it would be unreasonable for Thompson to approach him for a pay cut.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 26, 2017 at 06:18 pm

Eating dead money is a short hand way of knowing how badly your GM screwed up. It isn't exact, but it is convenient.

"As long as the dead money isn't split into the current year and next year's cap, it doesn't matter. " I don't have any idea what you mean. It doesn't really matter whether the cap hit is or isn't split up between the current year's and next year's cap, at least not usually in GB, but for some cap-strapped teams, it does matter.

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ThxJackVainisi's picture

May 26, 2017 at 11:09 pm

"'As long as the dead money isn't split into the current year and next year's cap, it doesn't matter.' I don't have any idea what you mean."

Here's what I mean: If a player is waived and his salary cap number is greater than the dead cap, it's a positive move with regard to the cap. If the dead money is split over two years, in the second year it's a negative move regarding the cap in that year. It matters more for other teams but at times can matter for the Packers as well. For example, Aaron Rodgers' contract will need to be extended - probably next season - and a negative cap event this year (less cap space to roll into next season) or next won't help if they want to extend other players or acquire a free agent or two next year.

IMO how badly the GM screwed up is less important than having the best roster available. Keeping a player whose compensation far outweighs his value is much worse than worrying about dead cap money when waiving the player results in more cap room. BTW, sometimes dead money isn't a measure of a GM screwing up: Shields' dead cap number for this year is more than $3M.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 27, 2017 at 12:09 pm

I agree with a lot of your response. Dead money eaten is an inexact measure: career-ending injuries skew the results. If your GM consistently has low amounts for dead money, that pretty much means he is doing a good job structuring contracts and assessing talent. Your point that it is more important to have the best roster is a good one. If TT keeps Cobb because he doesn't want to take the dead money hit even though cutting him would be the best thing for the roster, that is bad and it artificially lowers the dead money eaten stat. It is something that looking just at dead money eaten numbers can't show. All stats need context. [IMO, Cobb's cap savings # is $6.1M - I don't think we could replace Cobb for that amount given that we'd have to give the replacement a decent amount of guaranteed money and the new guy would not have the chemistry with AR. And I think there is a chance that Cobb returns to form - his play in the playoffs when he was healthy: 3 games, 16 recs on 24 targets (75%), 14.2 yd average, 260 yards, 87 yds per game - extrapolates to 1386 yds over a regular season - was encouraging. But that's off the topic.]

As for splitting the cap hit, I think we just don't agree. Using Cobb as an example, we could cut him now and take a $6.5M dead money hit and get a $6.15M cap savings in 2017. We have $18,55M in cap space, so doing that would increase it to $24.7M in 2017. Or, we could cut him June 2 and take a dead money hit of $3.25M in 2017 and the same amount in 2018, We'd get a $9.4M cap savings in 2017 (really $9.0 since he has just about earned his $400K workout bonus), which increases our cap space in 2017 to $27.95M. So, TT could roll over $24.7M into 2018 or he could roll over $27.95M into 2018 reduced by the $3.25M dead money we pushed into 2018, for a net of $24.7 either way.

Bottom line is that it doesn't matter whether a team takes the negative cap event in 2017 or 2018 or splits the event between the 2 cap years as long as the team has a healthy cap situation in 2017 and the outlook for 2018 is similarly positive. That usually describes GB. I agree it can matter: usually it doesn't but sometimes it can be better to split the negative event over 2 seasons. If we only had $1M in cap space and TT gets the chance to add a really good player on a one year rental for $10M later this summer, then it might be BETTER to split the negative cap event into two seasons. In this scenario, we cut Cobb after June 1 to get $9.4M in cap savings in 2017, allowing us to sign said really good player, instead of taking the whole negative cap event in 2017 and gaining $6.15M, which would not be enough to sign that really good player. Since we have $18,55M in cap space, we have enough to sign any player if we deem it to be a good idea, or to extend any players, or even a combination of players (within reason), so it doesn't matter when we take the negative cap event, or in our situation we could decide just to keep Cobb and hope he earns all or most of his pay this year.

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Hematite's picture

May 26, 2017 at 01:18 pm

I can only see Cobbs stats declining this year with the addition of the two FA tight ends and Nelson getting more snaps in the slot.
I'm of the opinion that the 2017 season will be the end of Cobb in Green Bay.

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croatpackfan's picture

May 26, 2017 at 01:41 pm

12.5 mol punt returner is ptetty expensive one, don' you think?

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Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

May 26, 2017 at 01:27 pm

Let's not forget that Cobb will likely resume punt return duties with Hyde gone--and that's an upgrade.

He'll be kept busy.

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Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

May 26, 2017 at 01:26 pm

Let's not forget that Cobb will likely resume punt return duties with Hyde gone--and that's an upgrade.

He'll be kept busy.

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Handsback's picture

May 26, 2017 at 01:37 pm

Cobb is an integral part of the offense. The team loves his capability and he has shown great production. Has he been nicked, of course. Last year wasn't an issue since Adams and Geronimo took up the slack. When he's 90-100%...the offense is clicking. This should be another big year for him even with the added TEs.

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gr7070's picture

May 26, 2017 at 04:50 pm

Someone apparently quit watching football a couple years ago.

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Lphill's picture

May 26, 2017 at 03:43 pm

Let's judge him when is 100 % healthy , I think they restructure his contract the Packers offense is better with him, if D Adams has a good year he will probably leave for a higher offer . We will need Cobb .

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worztik's picture

May 26, 2017 at 04:07 pm

I think Cobb's gone this year before the season starts!
I don't know why we just don't eat the signing bonus and save the salary? I guess I don't understand all these contractual items but, without Cobb, IMO, we lose very, very little. Just sayin'...

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TKWorldWide's picture

May 26, 2017 at 06:56 pm

.

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stockholder's picture

May 26, 2017 at 04:09 pm

Cobbs diminishing Skills is a bunch of Hog wash. He's always in shape in camp. You want Adams to get on the field more. You want Cobb gone. Thats the biggest mistake the packers could make. (For A-rod,MM, and the packers offense. ) A-rods words have not been enough for you to write otherwise. OK be negative. Get him to leave. And I'll make this bet with you. Adams and the class of 2014 nearly wrecked the passing of A-rod. A-rod will be your next target. Just stop the stupid BS. The truth is Cobb is your #2, until he is no longer on the club. He could have left, and wanted a ring. And now you trash him. Replaced by a 1 year wonder that has confidence problems. Your illusional. Very unfair to Cobbs character, and commitment.

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chugwater's picture

May 26, 2017 at 05:49 pm

"And I'll make this bet with you."

Trying to figure out where the bet was actually proposed within this drivel.

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dobber's picture

May 26, 2017 at 07:46 pm

It was "illusional"...

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MITM's picture

May 26, 2017 at 05:11 pm

When fully healthy Cobb is a difference maker, period. Whether or not he's on the team after this upcoming season is really anybodys guess. Anything can happen. Remember, we made a push for Greg Jennings when the majority figured that we would almost certainly look to just move on from him. We did just draft 2 receivers this year, however I think that the Dupre pick was definately a BPA available/value pick at that spot, I dont think we went into the draft expecting/needing to come out with 2 receivers.

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NoNonsense's picture

May 26, 2017 at 05:49 pm

Go back and watch games from 2015, defenses quickly figured out after Jordy's injury that Cobb was the only threat at WR so they could focus on stopping him.

Last year he may have got lost in the shuffle a little bit with Adams emerging, Cook and Jordy playing more inside but he also had some nagging injuries. I think the guy is every bit as good as he was in 2014, he might be a tad overpaid lately for his production but cutting him to save a few bucks would be a big mistake IMO.

If he doesn't have better output this year than they should consider asking him to take a pay cut next year, how much would depend upon if they plan to re-sign Adams or not.

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PatrickGB's picture

May 26, 2017 at 05:52 pm

Cobb has a lot of moxie and very good at what he does. GBP are almost loyal to a fault on contracts. He will here until it ends.
But we now really need a boundry receiver. Perhaps Janis will be that guy.

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Somedumbname's picture

May 27, 2017 at 10:55 am

Janis, I believe, will sadly never be that guy. He just can't figure out the intricacies of Route running. I honestly will be surprised if he makes the team this year. Even with his special team prowess.

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Grandfathered's picture

May 26, 2017 at 06:54 pm

Rogers likes Cobb,, they communicate telepathically. Packers will pay him out his contract. He was underpaid for a long time, and his value to the offense can't be measured strictly by personal stats. Big plays are not everything, but when you need a play look at the Giants wild card game. Fantasy football players may shy away from Cobb, but TT pays value when he sees it.

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Since'61's picture

May 26, 2017 at 11:43 pm

Cobb has made numerous big plays for the Packers during his career. He is a reliable receiver with very good hands. He has a knack for getting open on third downs and in the redzone. He knows the offense, he is not afraid to stay in and block for Rodgers. He can still occasionally be utilized in the run game. Cobb is a good football player. He has played through injuries. His production has declined and he may be overpaid but I don't mind paying for a good football player. We need all the good football players we can find. Cobb can return punts and kickoffs and as of today, after Aaron Rodgers he is the best offensive player we have. He will probably be eclipsed by Monty during 2017 and maybe Bennett as well but as of today the 2017 season hasn't happened. When the time comes the Packers will let him go unless he is willing to stay for less money. But when he is gone, he will be missed and the offense will be less effective. And the people complaining about his reduced production and current salary will be blaming TT for having let him go too soon. Thanks, Since '61

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 27, 2017 at 12:28 pm

Cobb doesn't have very good hands. His career in that regard has always been schizophrenic. He showed extremely good hands in 2016, terrible hands in 2015, good hands in 2014 (4.17% drop rate), very good in 2013 (2.1%) but in a reduced sample of 6 games due to injury, below average in 2012 (8.7%) and somewhat below average in 2011 (6.5%). He clearly is behind Nelson and Adams in the best offensive player category, and I expect him to be behind Bennett, maybe even behind Kendricks.

Yet, I agree that we should keep Cobb for 2017 [see Nick's comment just below] and reassess in 2018 or ask him to take a pay cut then

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 29, 2017 at 07:37 pm

I invite those who downvoted my comment to explain why.

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NickPerry's picture

May 27, 2017 at 05:45 am

IF Cobb stays healthy Cobb will be productive. In 2015 without Nelson AND without any semblance of a TE Cobb struggled, just like the ENTIRE offense. 2016 Cobb struggled to get and stay healthy. He sat out the last 2 weeks and didn't even play in week 15 against the Bears. He came back in the playoffs and caught 18 passes for 260 yards and 3 TD's. THAT was about as healthy as he was all season and Cobb produced. I'll accept that kind of production from Cobb for $10 million a year all day long.

Now I can't find the article I read earlier this week but Cobb was the only WR in the NFL without a drop last season with 60 catches or more in 2016. He had ZERO dropped passes which IMO speaks volumes about the man's hands when he is thrown to. Cobby has great hands and is consistently near the top in fewest dropped balls.

I'm on the fence about what to do with Cobb. Is he worth $10 million a year? Probably not and with all the options the Packers have this year he'll have a hard time justifying his salary in 2017 too. But the Packers are a better club with Cobb on the field. Jordy is approaching an age where he could fall off the planet and time. We can all speculate how long Nelson will be productive but nobody knows. We've all taken our shots at Cobb but I'd like to see what he does this year when he's healthy (Hopefully) before cutting him.

Everybody is willing to cut Randall slack after last season. Do the same for Cobb, at least he's produced for more than a game or two in his NFL career.

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Since'61's picture

May 27, 2017 at 07:52 am

Nick - well said! Excellent post and I agree completely. Cobb is a good football player and when healthy he has been a significant contributor to the Packers offense. Thanks, Since '61

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NickPerry's picture

May 27, 2017 at 08:07 am

Thanks Since '61.

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Tundraboy's picture

May 27, 2017 at 08:29 am

No worries. If Cobb is healthy we are that much better. This could be a lethal offense.

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dobber's picture

May 27, 2017 at 08:35 am

The best thing this team could do (outside of player acquisition) to ensure success in 2017 is make sure that Todd Hundley is ready to play. An injury to #12 is the one thing that will most certainly kill this offense.

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ThxJackVainisi's picture

May 27, 2017 at 10:08 am

It may be even more important to be sure Todd's brother Brett is ready to play. ;)

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dobber's picture

May 27, 2017 at 01:40 pm

Whoops...brain fart: Todd Hundley is a guy I went to school with. He's a little old for the Packers these days...

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Spock's picture

May 27, 2017 at 09:20 am

I like Cobb, he's an excellent football player and is capable of the big play. His value as a punt returner is even more with Hyde gone. I'm not so sure he needs to "reclaim" a position that's integral to the offense. This year's offense should be different with Bennett and Kendrick, but I would not be surprised to see QB1 still looking for Cobb on the scramble drill! Not sure why so many fans on various websites are often asking for players to take reduced salary when they are injured. When you come back to your job after a lengthy recovery from surgery would you expect the boss to ask you to take less money? In any case it's the Packers brass who make the money decisions, if they okay with it I'm okay with it.

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Tundraboy's picture

May 27, 2017 at 08:27 pm

Oops

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4thand1's picture

May 27, 2017 at 09:32 am

AR loves Cobb, he wanted a TE, he loves Adams. AR is the man that can give the Packers a SB. The Packers seem to be doing everything to make him happy. They have the offense in place to be elite, the defense needs to make some stops to give the offense the ball more. They will spread the ball around so no one player will have monster stats, something everyone seems to be obsessed with.

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Since'61's picture

May 27, 2017 at 10:50 am

4th - too many fans are obsessed with the monster stats for their Fantasy Football teams. When they figure out they are dealing in a pre-rigged game some of them may be smart enough to stop and actually watch a game rather than an individual player accumulating stats. Regrettably, once the NFL can get themselves a piece of the action it will only get worse. Eventually, our game will become a glorified version of flag football combined with an end zone "Dancing with the Stars" competition. At halftime the league will drop dung from airplanes and the crowd will be cheering "Wow this is the greatest show ever". The NFL is getting ever closer to what is now allegedly called pro-wrestling. But the $$$$ keeps rolling in. Thanks, Since '61

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4thand1's picture

May 27, 2017 at 07:45 pm

nail on the head.

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Tundraboy's picture

May 27, 2017 at 08:28 pm

Totally agree. Big time clutch plays are the proper measure. For example, Does anyone care or know what any NE player individual stats are?

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murf7777's picture

May 30, 2017 at 08:59 am

First timer here...I like this site as it is all football related comments with some very astute thoughts. My take on Cobb is barring injury he will put up a big year for us and remain our #2 WR. He will be utilized all over the field to create mismatches.

What is all this talk about Jordy now being a slot WR? One sports writer anoints him as a slot so now he's a slot, I don't think so. He had about 1/3 of his catches over the slot last year. MM likes his players to have versatility and yes with a loss of step Jordy will play some more inside, but god forbid if we don't see his back shoulder routes anymore. IMO, he will have more catches outside then inside in 2017.

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murf7777's picture

May 30, 2017 at 09:07 am

Sorry for the duplicates, having problems with java script!

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murf7777's picture

May 30, 2017 at 09:08 am

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murf7777's picture

May 30, 2017 at 09:09 am

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murf7777's picture

May 30, 2017 at 09:09 am

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